NBA News and Notes Wednesday 2/24

NBA RoundUp For 2/24
By Dan Bebe

Blazers @ Raptors - This line is OFF. Portland lost Marcus Camby early in their game with New Jersey, but managed to fend them off and pick up a nice little road win (and cover) to start their 5-game road trip around the eastern and central time zones. Now, though, they have to head to Canada overnight, deal with customs, and try to get the energy level back up for a tilt with the Raptors. This game, and this line, are largely dependent on whether or not Chris Bosh plays. He is currently listed as doubtful, which makes this game especially tough for Toronto. Interestingly, they've won both games with Bosh out, failing to cover at home but finding a way to win, but this is a new type of opponent: as in, one that has some skill, and isn't New Jersey or Washington. The Blazers are an outstanding 10-3 on the second half of a back-to-back, and if Toronto is truly counting on the rest of their guys to step up yet again without Bosh, I think they might be hitting a little bit of a wall. Portland knows they need to start winning soon, and if Brandon Roy can continue to get his legs under him and get a little more aggressive, the Blazers can be okay yet. Portland hasn't faced Toronto yet this season, so there aren't any historical angles to bring up. Really, what we're faced with is the question of "can the Raptors find a way to score enough to win without Bosh," and "can Portland continue to succeed on back-to-back games." I'm inclined to believe we see another nice effort from the young Blazers, and I lean to the road team, as I expect them to be getting some points. I also like the Under, since I can't imagine Toronto scores as easily against Portland as they did against Jersey and Washington.

Wolves @ Hawks - Atlanta by 12.5 with a total of 204. This is too many points, that's my opinion. The Wolves just aren't that horrid, and they've shown steady growth most of the season, even picking up a rare road win last night in Miami. Obviously, the key concern on Minnesota's side is that they played last night, and they're 3-12 (7-8 ATS) on the back end of these back-to-backs, so not terribly impressive, and just 2-8 ATS when that second game occurs on the road. So, this isn't exactly a good spot for Minnesota. That being said, I think the positive angles actually outweigh the negative ones. Minnesota got SERVED by the Hawks back in December, losing by 25 on their home court to the quicker, stronger Hawks, but I feel that Minnesota has improved dramatically since then. They compete most nights lately, and I just don't see them getting blown out by a team that doesn't play great defense. Anyway, I'm letting opinion get in the way of a factual write-up, so back to the important notes. The Hawks return home in this game off a rather beefy road trip that took them across the West and into Utah for their finale. Atlanta won that final game of the trip against the Jazz, which allowed oddsmakers, I believe, to bring this line out a tiny bit higher and still know the public is going to want to play the Hawks. Atlanta is bound to have a little first-game-home sluggishness, at least on the defensive side of the ball, and with a game against the Mavs coming up on Friday, there might even be the chance for a look-ahead. Strong lean to Minnesota, and slight lean to the Over, as I think Minnesota loses defensive focus on the back-to-back (they are 11-4 O/U on b2b's), and Atlanta takes Minnesota for granted off a tough road trip.

Grizzlies @ Wizards - Memphis by 1 with a total of 199. Wow, very tough spot for the Grizz. Memphis, our Paid Play winner last night. Memphis fought tooth and nail against the Lakers, and after falling behind early, scratched and clawed their way to a 5 point lead that they held for most of the 4th quarter. And then the game clock ticked under 1 minute, and everything changed. For the Grizzlies, the rim shrink to a pinhole, and O.J. Mayo missed two free throws that would have iced the game, then Kobe Bryant came down to the other end, banged in a 3-point with 5 seconds left, and the Grizzlies were left with their pants around their ankles. Now, Memphis has to head into Washington where the Wizards youngsters are playing inspired basketball, and try to get their heads back on straight and win a tough road game. This extremely short spread is interesting in that it almost tells me that oddsmakers know sharps are going to come in on the Wizards, and even though they could likely get away with bringing this line out a tiny bit higher, they don't want to risk getting killed with big Washington money. As you may recall, Washington played Memphis tough way back in December, though admittedly it was an entirely different team, then. The Wizards have quietly rattled off 6 straight covers with the new cast of characters, and I lean to Washington to get it done again. I also like the Over here, as Memphis is bound to go half-assed on defense.

Hornets @ Bucks - Milwaukee by 5.5 with a total of 192.5. Boy, if the Hornets play as hard as they did against the Cavaliers, they should be in decent shape in this one. That being said, it's never easy to follow up a game with the Cavaliers with another one the very next night. The Hornets have been a strong 7-4 ATS on back-to-back games, so perhaps they don't NEED the full 2 points they get in this spot, but I think coming off a game with Cleveland, they might be a little more tired than after, say, a game with Indiana. I realize I backed Cleveland last night in a half-unit freebie, so for me to fade the Hornets again might be nuts, but in an effort to be thorough, I feel the need to at least address the angles of this game. New Orleans defeated Milwaukee by just 3 points way back in November, so I don't know if there's any real revenge in play, here, but what we DO have on our hands is a fun battle at the point. Brandon Jennings going head-to-head with fellow greased-lightning point guard Darren Collison? That's solid theater. Both of these teams are playing well above their ATS rank, with the Hornets covering 6 of 7, and the Bucks covering 3 straight and 14 of 17! Basically, what this means is that neither team is really the "value" play, as each is a solid wager against most other teams in the NBA, but not each other. I would contend that the strongest angle is the potential letdown for New Orleans off hanging with the Cavs for 43 minutes, so I lean just slightly to the Bucks. We also know how the Hornets want to run, run, run, and I imagine the Bucks are going to really try to slow things down. I have to look at the Under.

Pacers @ Bulls - This line is OFF. And I'm afraid I must admit, my feelings on this game are largely going to be dictated by the presence (or lack thereof) of Indiana's star, Danny Granger. We saw what the Pacers look like without him once again in Monday's ugly defeat at the hands of the Dallas Mavericks. We cashed an Under wager on that game, as the Pacers just couldn't get anything going, had zero offensive rhythm, and couldn't stop the Mavs. That, right there, is a brutal combination of failure. Now, they head into Chicago for their 3rd game this season with the Bulls. This one is technically a double-revenge spot, but I hesitate to use that term when the Bulls so severely out-class the Pacers. Indiana lost by 9 in Chicago back in mid-December, then lost by 8 at home just before the All Star Break. It seems like, watching these games, the Bulls have unlocked the key to defending the Pacers, and Indiana just hasn't been able to succeed offensively against them. Unfortunately, that probably means we're going to see a fairly hefty spread in this one. My one concern is that Chicago is coming home off a silly loss in Washington, and I only hope that doesn't send them into any kind of multiple-game tailspin. As it is, if Granger is out, the Bulls could very well run the Pacers right out of town. Lean to the square side, the home Bulls. I also think we'll get some info from oddsmakers with the total, as both games this year have gone over, the last time eclipsing the posted mark of 205 with a final total of 210. Let's wait and see where that number comes out; if it's below 204, we may have a lean to the under.

Magic @ Rockets - This line is OFF. Trevor Ariza is dealing with a hip injury, and I believe is expected to miss this game. I honestly can't find a good reason to back Houston at home. The home court edge doesn't appear to be worth anything, and the Rockets have, not so quietly, slipped to 25-30 ATS on the season, and 1-6 ATS against winning teams in the season's second half. Basically, what we're seeing is that this is still a team that is getting some public love, and are getting creamed by the better teams in the NBA. In fact, and I realize this is all the more reason to be afraid to bet this game, Houston doesn't really have any positive trends right now. They are 1-5 ATS against the Southeast, 11-18 ATS against teams that score over 100 points, 12-15 ATS at home, and 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games. On Orlando's side, I might be a little concerned of a letdown after the big home win over the Cavs back on Sunday, but with all this time to collect themselves and get ready for the games at hand, I think we should see a decent effort from the Magic. Am I nervous that someone on Houston will step up and lay a beating in Ariza's stead? Not really, as he's just not a superstar -- sorry Trevor. This is a very tough spot for the Rockets, who have covered just 1 home game over the last month and change, and once again, I have to play the square card and lean to the road faves. I also think Orlando will try to put the clamps on Houston, and believe the Under has a tiny bit of pre-line value.

Thunder @ Spurs - This line is OFF. Ouch, if you're the Thunder. You win 9 games in a row, then finally drop a home game to the Nash-less Suns. Trademark "Injured Star Situation" there, as Phoenix kept it close all game, then outplayed Durant and the Thunder down the stretch in a strong road effort for the surging Suns. As you guys know, I tend to enjoy fading teams that lose a game to snap a long winning streak, especially when it's a tough, hard-fought one like this bad boy. The Thunder are a great team, don't get me wrong, but they're simply due for a few bad games. They managed to escape with wins against the inferior clubs on their recent road trip, but the Suns exposed them for not really going full throttle, and I wonder how this one is going to go, too. I wish almost any other team was coming into San Antonio, because in terms of bad situational spots, it doesn't get much more disturbing than the Spurs coming home off the rodeo road trip. The Spurs literally have not played a home game in the month of February. That is downright ridiculous. Whatever home court advantage they might have here is going to be vastly diminished by the fact that home might just feel like another road stop. They also go right back out on the road for a game in Houston on Friday. What can we expect from the Spurs? I don't think a strong game, that's for sure, but can they take advantage of a Thunder team that might be in line for another loss or two before getting things back in gear. This is a damn tough game to pick, especially without a line, and especially with Tony Parker expected to be out. I suppose I have to lean just a tiny bit to the Thunder, since they have been a very good bounceback team this season, going 17-4 ATS off a SU loss. I also like the Over, as I feel the chances of the Spurs playing lockdown defense in this first game back home is somewhat slim.

Bobcats @ Jazz - This line is OFF. The Bobcats are off to a rather poor start to their current road trip, losing and failing to cover in both Milwaukee and against the Clippers in LA. In addition, the Bobcats have actually gone a dismal 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games, and I don't know if they've really "bottomed out" just yet. That being said, it might happen here. The Jazz got beat at home by the Hawks in their last game, trying to come back off an incredible OT win in Portland and play a strong Atlanta club without the services of Andrei Kirilenko and Deron Williams. Obviously, the health of the Jazz is paramount in this game, and they'll be a tougher team to back if they continue to miss key pieces. Still, Utah has been red, red hot lately, only losing 3 games against the spread since the middle of January, and here they'll get to face a Bobcats team that just isn't clicking right now, especially on the defensive end. Charlotte wins games when they can slow their opponents, and they haven't held an opponent under 90 points since January 20th. That run of not-as-impressive defense has coincided almost exactly with their poor ATS run. I just can't bring myself to back the road dog here. I know taking points is the way to go in the long run, and we often play big dogs, but I just don't feel like Charlotte can handle the unique Utah offense, and while this is indeed a home revenge spot for the Bobcats, I believe Utah beat Charlotte on the road because the young Bobcats just didn't know what to do with Utah. I lean to the Jazz. I also think this one has a chance to stay Under, but I want to see where the total comes out. Utah has been playing, in general, lower-scoring games and really playing physical defense, and they might very well hold the Bobcats to a very low number.

Sixers @ Suns - This line is OFF.

Lakers @ Mavs - A Pick in Dallas with a total of 194.5.

Pistons @ Clippers - LA by 3.5 with a total of 190.

Portland (33-26, 31-27-1 ATS) at Toronto (31-24, 28-27 ATS)

The under-the-radar Raptors shoot for their third win in a row when they welcome the Trail Blazers to the Air Canada Centre.

Portland kicked off a five-game road trip with Tuesday’s 102-93 victory at New Jersey as a 7½-point road favorite, with Brandon Roy (28 points), LaMarcus Aldridge (27 points) and Andre Miller (20 points) leading the scoring assault. The Blazers, who had been held under 90 points in four of their previous six games, are just 6-8 SU in their last 14 games. However, they’re a respectable 8-5 in their last 13 road outings, going 10-3 ATS.

Toronto has been idle since Saturday, when it knocked off Washington 109-104, but failed to cover as a 6½-point home favorite. It was the 20th game in a row that the Raptors hit the century mark in scoring, tallying at least 106 points in 15 of those 20 contests. Toronto has won 10 of its last 12 overall (7-5 ATS) and nine of its last 10 north of the border (6-4 ATS). For the season, the Raptors are 21-7 SU and 16-12 ATS at the Air Canada Centre, despite outscoring opponents by an average of just 4.4 points per game (105.4-101).

The Blazers swept the season series from Toronto last year, winning 98-97 as a three-point road chalk and 102-89 as an eight-point home favorite. Portland is 6-3 SU in the last nine meetings, but the Raptors have cashed in nine of the last 12, including five of the last six in Canada. Also, the home team has taken the money in four straight meetings the last two years.

In addition to cashing in 10 of its last 13 roadies (including seven of the last eight), Portland is on ATS runs of 5-1 against Eastern Conference teams and 35-17 when going on back-to-back nights, but it has come up short of getting the cash in four of five versus opponents with a winning record. Meanwhile, the Raptors have covered in six of seven against the West, four straight against winning teams and four of five when going on three or more days of rest, but they’re 4-9 ATS in their last 13 on Wednesday and 1-4 ATS in their last five against Northwest Division foes.

These teams have topped the total in each of their last five head-to-head matchups. Additionally, Toronto is on “over” runs of 6-2 at home, 9-3 on Wednesday, 7-2 against Northwest Division opponents, 6-0 versus winning teams and 12-5-1 when coming off three or more days of rest. Portland has topped the total in six of seven on the highway, four straight against winning teams, six of eight on Wednesday and seven of nine when going on back-to-back nights.

However, the under is 6-2 in the Blazers’ last eight overall and 8-2 in the Raptors’ last 10 versus the Western Conference.

ATS ADVANTAGE: TORONTO and OVER

Oklahoma City (33-22 SU and ATS) at San Antonio (31-23, 25-28-1 ATS)

After seeing their nine-game winning streak end in brutal fashion at home last night, the surging Thunder head back on the road when they visit the AT&T Center for a battle with the well-rested Spurs.

Oklahoma City extended its longest winning streak in several years with a pair of narrow road wins at New York (121-118 in overtime) and Minnesota (109-107) over the weekend, but it was on the wrong end of a buzzer beater Tuesday, falling 104-102 to the Suns as a six-point home favorite. With Kevin Durant (36 points) and Russell Westbrook (21 points, 10 rebounds) leading the way, the Thunder had a 98-88 lead with less than three minutes to play but got outscored 16-4 the rest of the way. Phoenix’s Jason Richardson hit the winning basket with 0.7 seconds to play.

Oklahoma City is playing its sixth road game in its last eight contests tonight – all since Feb. 3 – but it has won the last five in a row (3-2 ATS). However, the Thunder have followed up a five-game ATS winning streak with three straight non-covers, the first time all year they’ve failed to cash in three straight games. Still, going back to Dec. 23, Oklahoma City has won 20 of 28 games, and it is 18-11 ATS in its last 29.

San Antonio concluded its season-long eight-game road trip in Detroit on Sunday, losing to the Pistons 109-101 in overtime as a 4½-point chalk. The Spurs finished with a 4-4 split on the trip (2-6 ATS), and they’re just 4-5 SU and 2-7 ATS in their last nine overall, scoring 94 points or less in five of the contests. Also, Gregg Popovich’s team has dropped four of its last six home games, both SU and ATS.

Durant continues to play remarkable basketball, as he’s now scored at least 25 points in 29 consecutive games, and he’s averaging 29.9 ppg on the season. That includes a 35-point effort against the Spurs back on Jan. 13, but it wasn’t enough as San Antonio scored a 109-108 overtime victory as a 1½-point road underdog. However, in the first meeting between these teams this season (in San Antonio), the Thunder prevailed 101-98 as an 8½-point road favorite.

The road team has won the last four meetings SU and ATS, and the teams have split their last eight contests (with Oklahoma City going 5-3 ATS, including three straight spread-covers in San Antonio after going 0-8-1 ATS in the previous nine trips to the AT&T Center). Finally, the SU winner has covered in 12 of the last 13 head-to-head clashes and is 14-1-1 ATS in the last 16.

Oklahoma City is on ATS upticks of 5-2 overall, 15-5 on the road, 4-1 against the Western Conference, 4-0 against the Southwest Division and 10-1 against winning teams, but it has failed to cash in five straight Wednesday affairs. San Antonio is 1-4 ATS in its last five overall and 3-10 ATS in its last 13 against Northwest Division opponents, but it has covered in nine of 10 when coming off a road trip of a week or longer.

The over is 20-8 in the Thunder’s last 28 when playing on back-to-back nights and 5-0 in their last four against winning teams, but they’ve stayed low in seven of 10 against the Southwest Division. The Spurs have topped the total in four straight against winning teams and the over is 5-1-1 in their last seven on Wednesday, but they’re otherwise on “under” streaks of 5-2 overall, 4-0 against the Western Conference and 5-1 after a road trip of seven days or more.

Lastly, these teams have topped the total in four straight meetings overall and four of the last five at the AT&T Center.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OKLAHOMA CITY and OVER

L.A. Lakers (43-14, 25-30-2 ATS) at Dallas (35-21, 23-33 ATS)

Kobe Bryant and the Lakers cap a brief two-game, two-day Southwest Division road swing when they invade American Airlines Center looking to beat the Mavericks for the third time in a row.

Bryant returned to the lineup for the first time in 18 days on Tuesday at Memphis and scored his team’s final nine points – including the game-winning three-pointer with 4.3 seconds left – as Los Angeles rallied past the Grizzlies 99-98. Bryant scored a team-high 32 points as the Lakers, who failed to cover as a 5½-point road favorite, overcame a five-point deficit entering the fourth quarter. Los Angeles, which prior to Tuesday hadn’t played since Thursday’s 87-86 home loss to Boston, went 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS without Bryant.

Starting with a 100-95 win in Dallas as a six-point underdog back on Jan. 13, the Lakers have won 14 of 19 games, going 9-3 SU on the road.

Dallas carries a four-game winning streak (2-2 ATS) into tonight, including a pair of home wins over the Heat on Saturday (97-91) and Pacers on Monday (91-82). However, the Mavericks failed to cover as a sizeable favorite in both games, and are now 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games overall and 2-18 ATS at home since Nov. 30 (including 1-18 ATS as a home favorite). On the bright side, Rick Carlisle’s club has been tightening up the defense, allowing just 89.8 ppg during its winning streak.

The Mavericks ended a six-game losing streak to Los Angeles back on Oct. 30, winning 94-80 as a 7½-point road underdog, but the Lakers won the next two over a 10-day span in January (131-96 as a 6½-point home favorite on Jan. 3 and the aforementioned five-point upset win in Dallas on Jan. 13). The road team is 9-1-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings, L.A. is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four trips to Big D, and the underdog has cashed in seven of the last nine.

The Lakers are on ATS runs of 5-2-1 on the highway and 4-1 when playing on consecutive days. Dallas has covered in 19 of its last 28 on Wednesday, but otherwise it is in ATS slumps of 8-20 overall (5-16 last 21), 6-22 at home (2-18 last 20), 7-20 against the Western Conference, 3-7 versus the Pacific Division and 1-6 after one day off.

Los Angeles, which barely stayed under the total last night in Memphis, carries a slew of “under” trends, including 6-0 overall, 6-0 on the road, 6-0 against the Southwest Division and 5-0 against Western Conference opponents. The under is also 5-0 in the Mavs’ last five on Wednesday, but they’ve topped the total in eight of their last 11 at home. Additionally, three of the last four series meetings between these rivals – including the last two in Dallas – have stayed low.

ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. LAKERS and UNDER

Trend Report - Wednesday
By Ed Meyer

Hornets at Bucks – The Hornets are 7-0 ATS (12.1 ppg) since February 08, 1999 as a dog after a loss in which they shot at least 50% from the field. The Bucks are 0-10-1 ATS (-8.9 ppg) since January 07, 2009 when seeking revenge for a loss as a dog in which they led at the half. The Bucks are 0-5 ATS (-4.8 ppg) since November 24, 2002 after a road win in which their opponent shot at least twenty three-pointers and made less than 25% of them.

Pacers at Bulls – The Pacers are 6-0-1 ATS (6.4 ppg) since December 30, 2004 on the road after a game on the road in which their DPS was minus 15 points or less. The Bulls are 6-0 ATS (6.6 ppg) since January 23, 2008 at home with at least one day of rest after a game on the road in which they allowed at least 50% from the field.

Pistons at Clippers – The Pistons are 0-9 ATS (-10.7 ppg) since April 18, 2009 when seeking revenge for a loss in which they shot less than 40% from the field. The Clippers are 9-0 ATS (7.9 ppg) since November 29, 2009 after a game in which more than 70% of their baskets were assisted. The Clippers are 0-5 ATS (-12.5 ppg) since December 17, 2000 at home with at most one day of rest after a win in which their opponent stole the ball at least twelve times.

Timberwolves at Hawks – The Timberwolves are 6-0 ATS (11.7 ppg) since November 29, 2009 when seeking revenge for a loss as a dog in which fewer than 50% of their baskets were assisted. The Hawks are 6-0 ATS (6.5 ppg) since November 04, 2009 with at most one day of rest off a win in which they trailed by 10+ points.

Bobcats at Jazz – The League is 8-0 ATS (6.6 ppg) since November 09, 2008 on the road with at least one day of rest after a road loss in which more than 75% of their baskets were assisted. The Jazz are 11-0 ATS (6.0 ppg) since November 21, 2003 as a home favorite after a game at home after a loss in which they made more baskets than their opponent. The Jazz are 9-0 ATS (9.0 ppg) since February 05, 2005 at home with at least one day of rest off a loss as a favorite in which they led by 10+ points.

Lakers at Mavericks – The Lakers are 11-0 ATS (12.9 ppg) since March 23, 2007 as a dog when playing the second of back-to-back road games.The Lakers are 0-8-1 ATS (-8.1 ppg) since April 21, 2009 and when facing a team they beat in their previous two match-ups of the season. The Mavericks are 0-9-1 ATS (-7.8 ppg) since February 24, 2009 when facing a team they lost to at home in their previous same-season match-up.

Trailblazers at Raptors – The Trailblazers are 0-9 ATS (-8.4 ppg) since January 28, 2006 after playing the Nets. The Trailblazers are 6-0 ATS (11.0 ppg) since March 23, 2007 with no rest after a game on the road in which they committed fewer than ten turnovers.

Magic at Rockets – The Magic are 6-0 ATS (11.5 ppg) since May 17, 2009 with at least one day of rest off a win as a favorite in which they trailed at the end of the third quarter. The Rockets are 0-8 ATS (-11.4 ppg) since February 04, 2009 when seeking revenge for a road loss in which fewer than 50% of their baskets were assisted.

Thunder at Spurs – The Thunder are 8-0 ATS (7.1 ppg) since November 29, 2008 after a home loss in which their opponent shot at least ten three-pointers and made at least half of them. The Thunder are 7-0 ATS (7.8 ppg) since December 22, 2009 when facing a team they lost to in their previous same-season match-up. The Spurs are 0-8 ATS (-11.1 ppg) since May 17, 2006 as a favorite off an overtime game on the road.

76ers at Suns – The 76ers are 7-0 ATS (13.1 ppg) since March 07, 2003 as a road dog when seeking revenge for a home loss in which they led by a least fifteen points. The Suns are 9-0 ATS (7.1 ppg) since January 18, 2008 after a road win in which they shot at least ten three-pointers and made at least half of them.

Grizzlies at Wizards – The Grizzlies are 8-0-1 ATS (7.4 ppg) since November 03, 2006 with at most one day of rest off a home loss in which they led by 10+ points.

Tips and Trends

Los Angeles Lakers at Dallas Mavericks

Lakers: One look at the final score against Memphis, and you can tell that G Kobe Bryant is back in the lineup. The Lakers beat the Grizzlies on a winning 3 pointer by the most clutch player in the NBA today. Los Angeles is 43-14 SU this season, holding down the best record in the Western Conference. The Lakers are tied in the loss column with the Cavaliers for the best record in the entire NBA. The Lakers are 17-9 SU and 11-14-1 ATS on the road this season. The Lakers are 2-4 both SU and ATS when listed as the underdog this season. Los Angeles has lost 6 of their past 9 games ATS heading into tonights contest with Dallas. Los Angeles has been held under 100 PTS in 8 of their past 11 games. Bryant missed games during that span, but he announced his arrival in Memphis with 32 PTS to go along with his game winning shot. Bryant is 4th in the NBA in scoring with 28 PPG this season. All 4 other starters average double digits in PTS for the Lakers. The Lakers have held 11 of their past 12 opponents under 100 PTS. The Lakers are only allowing 96.2 PPG this season, the 8th lowest in the NBA.

Lakers are 4-1 ATS last 5 games playing on 0 days rest.
Under is 7-1 last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

Key Injuries - C Andrew Bynum (hip) is probable.
G Sasha Vujacic (shoulder) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 94

Mavericks (-1, O/U 194.5): Dallas has won 4 consecutive games SU in route to a season record of 36-21 SU. Dallas is currently leading the Southwest Division and have the 4th best record in the Western Conference. Dallas is certainly a bit tired, as they've played 5 games in 7 days since the All Star break. The trade that brought both F Caron Butler and C Brendan Haywood appears to be working out smoothly for the Mavericks. Dallas is 17-9 SU at home this season. Unfortunately, Dallas has been awful this season ATS at home, going 6-21. That 6-21 ATS home record includes a current stretch where they've lost 12 out of their past 13 games ATS at home. Dallas is 14-23 ATS this season as a single digit favorite. The Mavericks are focusing on defense after the All Star game, as they've held 5 consecutive opponents under 100 PTS. Offensively the Mavericks have been held under 98 PTS in 4 of their past 5 games. F Dirk Nowitzki is averaging 24.7 PPG this season in leading 6 different Mavericks averaging double digits in PTS.

Mavs are 5-0 ATS last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % greater than .600.
Over is 8-3 last 11 home games.

Key Injuries - C Erick Dampier (finger) is out.
F Tim Thomas (personal) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 102 (SIDE of the Day)