NBA News and Notes Wednesday 3/10

Memphis (33-31, 34-29-1 ATS) at Boston (40-22, 24-37-1 ATS)

The Grizzlies look to extend a six-game road winning streak when they make their one and only trip of the season to TD Garden for a battle with the Celtics.

Memphis is coming off Monday’s 107-101 home win over New Jersey, though it came up short as an 8½-point favorite. The Grizzlies have won three of their last four and four of their last six, but they’ve followed up a 6-2 ATS run with consecutive non-covers (both as a favorite). Memphis has won six straight road games both SU and ATS, and the visitor is 13-1 ATS in its last 14 contests.

Boston took a four-game winning streak to Milwaukee on Tuesday and blew a four-point fourth-quarter lead, falling 86-84 as a 1½-point road underdog. The Celtics are just 11-6 SU in their last 17 games and 14-27 ATS in their last 41. Also, Doc Rivers’ squad has split its last 14 games at the Garden, going a dreadful 1-12-1 ATS.

The Celtics have won the last six meetings in this rivalry, but the teams have split the cash and in fact have alternated spread-covers in the last seven series meetings. Back on Dec. 14 in Memphis, Boston pulled out a 110-105 win but failed to cash as a 7½-point road chalk. The Grizzlies are 13-4-1 ATS in their last 17 contests against the Celtics (all as an underdog), and they’ve cashed in nine straight trips to Boston. Finally, the visitor is on a 6-1 ATS roll.

In addition to cashing in six straight road games, the Grizzlies are on ATS runs of 19-8 against the Eastern Conference, 6-1 against Atlantic Division squads and 5-0 on Wednesday, but their 1-4 ATS in their last five when playing after one day of rest. The Celtics are in pointspread ruts of 7-16-1 overall, 15-37-1 at home (1-12-1 last 14), 3-8-1 against winning teams, 2-9-1 versus Western Conference foes and 1-4 against the Southwest Division.

The under is 9-4 in Memphis’ last 13 against the Eastern Conference, while Boston carries “under” trends of 6-1 against the Western Conference, 4-1 versus Southwest Division foes and 4-1 when playing on back-to-back days. However, the Grizzlies carry “over” trends of 22-10 on the road, 5-0 against winning teams and 9-1 against Atlantic Division foes. Also, these teams have topped the total in seven straight meetings overall and four straight at TD Garden.

ATS ADVANTAGE: MEMPHIS and OVER

NBA RoundUp For 3/10
By Dan Bebe

Bobcats @ Sixers - Charlotte by 1 with a total of 189. This game is interesting if only because we have two teams that are both on back-to-back, and both happen to be over .500 ATS when playing without rest. The Sixers are just 4-10 SU, but 8-6 ATS; the Bobcats are 8-8 SU and 11-5 ATS, easily among the best in the NBA. The issue here is that Charlotte played a thoroughly exhausting game last night against the Heat -- don't get me started again there -- and now they have to travel up to Philadelphia and try to get the energy level up on the road. Charlotte understands that every win is crucial right now if they want to get into the playoffs, and one thing you have to give them credit for is a never-die attitude. Miami led last night for 47 minutes, but Charlotte played their asses off on the defensive end, and managed to squeeze past the Heat for a monster win. I know Miami isn't the kind of opponent that teams get up for, but this game has all the trademark signs of a potential letdown. Charlotte played with insane levels of energy last night, and while the Sixers looked awful in a road loss to Indiana, they should have more in the tank tonight. The only issue is that the Sixers stink! They played a solid road game in Toronto, but you simply can't lose to the Pacers (without Granger) and expect anyone to take you seriously. This game has too many competing angles, I believe, as Charlotte's strong back-to-back ATS number is butting heads with the emotional letdown. I think this game means way more to Charlotte, and I lean to them to barely win, but this margin for error is razor thin. On the total, well, it's all about whether the Bobcats can control the tempo. The Sixers have been so bad lately that I have no confidence in their ability to score, and for that reason, I lean to the Under.

Clippers @ Heat - This line is OFF. This is another game where we have to look long and hard at motivation. The Heat are on the bubble in the Eastern Conference, but they're potentially a little down after blowing what would have been a great win in Charlotte last night. The Clippers have been blown out now in 4 consecutive games, and no team appears to have mailed in the 2010 season at this point more than the Clippers. They are, for lack of a real word, unbackable. This is a terrible spot for both teams, and while I'd love to offer one side that's superior to the other, I just can't do it. There's no fight left in the Clippers, but they could be laying a large chunk of points, which is not going to be easy to cover for a team that is going to be positively gassed. Miami is just 5-9 ATS on back-to-back games, so this isn't a strong spot for them, and the Clippers are 7-9 ATS on back-to-backs. Is this really a spot where we want to get behind either club? Based on motivation alone, I would offer a lean to the Heat, since the Clippers defense isn't going to force Miami into another 78-point night, but that awful back-to-back record for Miami is slapping us in the face. On the total, the Heat are going to try to keep this thing as slow as humanly possible, since the fewer possessions the teams play, the better the Heat's chance of winning with their better team defense. At home, I think they can do just that, and I lean Under.

Jazz @ Pistons - Utah by 6.5 with a total of 201. The Utah Jazz are coming off a steamrolling of the Chicago Bulls, just as we predicted yesterday, but failed to play. That lean, though, was just as much about how bad Chicago has been playing as it was about how strong the Jazz have been. In fact, looking at the Bulls, that team has now lost 5 straight, and it's pretty clear they need their health if they're going to win. In any case, we move forward. Utah plays in Detroit tonight, on a back-to-back against the surprisingly competitive Pistons. What we're seeing from Detroit, since the All Star Break, is pretty cut and dry. When they're rested, they're covering machines. When they're tired, they're awful. Since the Break, when the Pistons are playing on 1 or more days of rest, they're 6-2 ATS, losing only to Milwaukee at home, who was on revenge, and to Boston at home, because the Celtics love making fans in Motown cry. When the Pistons are on back-to-back games since the All Star Break, they are 0-4 ATS. So, casual fans look at Detroit, see that they're 6-6 since the Break and figure they're nothing special, when in fact, they just don't have the depth of talent to win when fatigued. Here, Detroit is rested, which means they're, in effect, a decent choice, and if it weren't for Utah's prowess on back-to-backs, this might be a play. Sadly, though, the Jazz are 8-4 ATS on no rest, and a perfect 5-0 when going away-to-away back-to-back games. Yikes. Utah looks like a team possessed, and I happen to think this spread is pretty close to accurate. Without Rodney Stuckey and Ben Wallace, the Pistons just won't have enough, and I actually think Utah covers late, but barely! On the total, Detroit is going to try to keep this thing from getting too quick, and I think it slips just Under the posted mark.

Grizzlies @ Boston - This line is OFF. First off, last I heard, Zach Randolph is probable to go, and who can blame him? The Grizzlies sit just on the outskirts of the Western Conference Playoff chase, and they basically need to win every game from here on out to pass either Portland or San Antonio, since the top six teams in the West are basically set. You really have to feel for the Grizzlies, who, at 2 games over .500 are 3.5 games out of the playoffs. Over in the East, the 8th seed is a .500 team, so while the top teams in both conferences are relatively evenly matched, the middle and bottom teams aren't even close, still. You have to be 9 games over .500 to make the playoffs in the West right now, and there are losing teams in the East that still have better than a puncher's chance. In any case, the Grizzlies head into Boston to battle a Celtics team coming home off a tough loss in Milwaukee last night. A subtle reminder: Boston is just 7-21 ATS at home, and the Grizzlies are a solid 6-1 ATS against the Atlantic division, for whatever reason a collection of teams that Memphis matches up well against. Memphis has been a machine on the road recently, winning and covering 6 straight, and while I don't know for sure if they beat the Celtics outright, they certainly could. Boston, like the Spurs, is bad when tired. They're just 5-7 ATS on back-to-back spots, and 4-8 O/U, a pretty clear indicator that they struggle to score, and try to "defend" by making the game move about as fast as a geriatric with a walker. I just wish we had a line on this one, since the power rankings should have Boston as roughly a 3-point neutral court favorite, but with the back-to-back, the Celtics might be laying only 3-4 points here. Still, I like the Grizzlies to go all out, and if we're truly capping motivation, I lean Memphis. On the total, I think Memphis is actually ready for a slugfest, and this one stays Under.

Nuggets @ Wolves - Denver by 8 with a total of 217. If there's one complaint we can have about the Denver Nuggets this year, it's that they don't seem to play well on the road, except in huge games. They need something to motivate them, is what that tells me, so either they use the home crowd to get themselves fired up, or the impact of the game, but when they have neither, I'm not convinced they can play well enough. Now, we're at that time of year where on any given day, a bad team can completely mail it in, and any good team can decide they need this one, and that's an obvious concern here. The Wolves went on a few stretches during the season where they looked decent, but boy if that team isn't made up of Al Jefferson and a cavalcade of jokers. The outrageous turnover numbers from that last game make this team awfully tough to back, though I'd wager Johnny Flynn doesn't have another 8-turnover game tonight. Interestingly, neither of these teams is in a particularly strong situational spot. The Wolves sure look bad, so there's likely some line value there, and the Nuggets may be in a tiny letdown spot off the big home win over Portland, but they've had 2 days to collect themselves and get set for this 4-game road trip. If I had to take a side, in a spot like this where nothing points to either team all that strongly, I would have to lean to the home dog, but I think this one is only a 51-53% prospect at first glance, and we'd need the public's help pushing this line up over 9 to make it a truly strong value. That total is extremely high, given the Nuggets score 10 fewer points on the road than at home, but the Wolves defense is, well, not really defense. I think this one just slips Under the mark.

Hornets @ Thunder - This line is OFF. Is this line really off because of Russell Westbrook? That seems somewhat cowardly of the books, considering I would think he only moves this line a point, but whatever. This is the 3rd meeting between these two teams this year, and the road team has won each of the previous two games. Back in early January, the Hornets pulled off a solid upset on the road as a 5-point dog, but the difference then was that Chris Paul could lead the way. Can the Hornets beat the Thunder again without him? I doubt it. Oklahoma City beet New Orleans by 4 just a few weeks ago, so some folks might argue the Hornets have revenge, but right now, this team is clearly tiring. They had lost 4 straight before beating Golden State, but again failed to cover, so that's now 5 straight ATS losers for the Hornets. Give them credit - they played very, very well when Paul went down, but all the other guys are starting to run out of gas, and as the losses mount, and the playoffs slip out of sight, Chris Paul continues to fall behind schedule in his rehab, and games just become a little tougher to really fight for. That was the run-on sentence of the blog, to be sure, but the point is there. New Orleans is no longer a good value. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Hornets getting 8 points, but I happen to think the Thunder just barely clear that spread. On the total, well, the Thunder's defense has been lax lately, and the Hornets are going to want to push, push, push against a vastly superior opponent. I lean Over.

Nets @ Mavericks - Dallas by 12 with a total of 204. This game is marked by two key points -- Brendan Haywood's health, and the fact that the Mavericks can't seem to cover spreads at home. Dallas is a perfectly miserable 0-6 ATS when favored by a number this high. What that tells us, most likely, is that sharps are probably going to hit this number and knock it down overnight. The Mavs did beat the Nets by 16 on the road earlier this year, but for whatever reason they just don't defend at home. It's almost inexplicable. Even in their last game, a win, and cover, against the Timberwolves on the road, the only reason the Mavs covered was because the Wolves turned the ball over 25 times. Now, with Haywood questionable, we're expecting Dallas to cover 12 points against the Nets? Without getting into a longwinded discussion of value, since you guys know that the Nets are the value play, it's pretty safe to say that you fade the Mavs at home, and you'll be in decent shape more often than not. It's not a random trend that Dallas is 8-23 ATS in their own building, as they really don't play 6 points better at home than on the road. In fact, given that they cover just 25% of the time, roughly, at home, that is close to 6 points of value. Interestingly, based on that number, the Mavs should probably be laying the exact same points at home as on the road, if oddsmakers truly wanted to balance the results. But results be damned, books just need even money, and if that leads to the Mavs tanking, so be it. I lean Nets. I also lean Over, and I'm not taking a Mavs under until Haywood comes back.

Knicks @ Spurs - San Antonio by 8.5 with a total of 207. I would love to fade the Spurs in this one, especially with Tony Parker going down for a long stretch of time, and San Antonio coming off that tough loss in Cleveland to the Lebron-less Cavs, but I just don't know if I can pull the trigger. The Knicks are indeed coming off a win against the Hawks, but they're just not a very good road team, and they're so hit or miss these days that we really need to pick our battles. The Spurs beat the Knicks by 7 in New York earlier this year, but that doesn't tell us much, considering the game was in December. More than anything, I'm just not sure I can trust the Knicks to play all that hard against a team that isn't a true rival, and isn't one of the League's elite; not any more, at least. When it comes right down to it, the value is probably with New York, since they're catching a ton of points, but I strongly believe there are better value on the board than backing a terrible team on the road or an underachieving team laying too many points at home. The Spurs are in a worse situational spot than the Knicks, who might try to start a 5-game roadie with a decent game, so I guess with a gun to my head, I'd advise a small lean to the Knicks. The Knicks don't score as much on the road as they do at home, and the Spurs haven't allowed 100 points in their last 4 games, which is actually a nice defensive stretch for San Antonio - I lean Under.

Raptors @ Kings - Toronto by 1.5 with a total of 212. I'm actually a little surprised the Raptors are favored here, but I suppose with BOTH teams on a back-to-back, we're getting a relatively fair line. Both teams are coming off tough, hard-fought losses last night, with the Kings fighting to get even with the Blazers after trailing all night, only to lose by 7 in the final couple minutes, and Toronto actually leading the Lakers most of the evening, only to have Kobe fire yet another game-winning dagger into their hearts. I think the question for this game has to be, "which of these teams, if any, can deal with last night's heartbreak and bounce back accordingly?" On the one hand, I want to say Sacramento, since their game with Portland was likely one that they didn't think they were going to win, and then getting to play in front of the home crowd. Sacramento is just 1-4-1 ATS in back-to-back games that go from away-to-home, but for whatever reason they've played exceedingly bad teams in those spots, and are actually 3-3 SU. I know, weird...in any case, this is the rare time when Sacramento is going to be an underdog in a home conclusion to a back-to-back, and while sharps are probably going to toy with this line, Sacramento getting points seems like a pretty good deal. Toronto has redefined awful in back-to-back games, going just 3-11 ATS, including their most recent debacle in Houston (a game they lost by 24, though, admittedly, it was without Bosh). But really, this team is just bad when they're tired, and off that loss to the Lakers, they are going to be tuckered out. Lean to Sacramento. Neither of these teams plays all that differently on back-to-backs, since neither really plays defense to begin with, so I'd be hesitant before launching onto the Over, but I think we might see a 115-point first half. I happen to think this total is pretty accurate, but have a "tilt" to the Over.

Trend Report - Wednesday
By Ed Meyer

Grizzlies at Celtics – The Grizzlies are 12-0 ATS (7.8 ppg) since February 02, 1997 on the road versus the Celtics. The Grizzlies are 7-0 ATS (14.9 ppg) since March 04, 2009 on the road when seeking revenge for a home loss in which fewer than 50% of their baskets were assisted. The Celtics are 0-17-1 ATS (-10.4 ppg) since November 19, 2003 at home off a loss as an away dog in which they led at the end of the third quarter.

Clippers at Heat – The Clippers are 7-0 ATS (13.0 ppg) since March 20, 2007 as a dog when facing a non-conference team they beat as a favorite in their first match-up of the season. The Clippers are 0-7 ATS (-7.6 ppg) since January 09, 2009 with no rest after a double digit road loss in which they scored less than 15% of their points from the free throw line. The Heat are 0-15 ATS (-10.3 ppg) since January 20, 2006 as a favorite when playing the first game of at least a three game home stand.

Raptors at Kings – The Raptors are 0-6 ATS (-7.4 ppg) since December 29, 2007 on the road when facing a non-conference team they beat in their first match-up of the season. The Raptors are 0-9 ATS (-9.6 ppg) since March 06, 2007 after winning the previous matchup at home in which Chris Bosh shot better than 66% from the field. The Kings are 6-0 ATS (4.3 ppg) since January 29, 2010 as a dog when they have a revenge game at home next.

Nets at Mavericks – The Nets are 8-0 ATS (10.4 ppg) since February 03, 2010 on the road when they have a revenge game next. The Mavericks are 0-10 ATS (-7.7 ppg) since November 20, 2009 at home after a game in which their field goal attempt per turnover ratio was at least eight. The Mavericks are 8-0 ATS (11.8 ppg) since December 10, 2002 at home with at least one day of rest off a win as an away favorite in which they trailed by 10+ points.

Jazz at Pistons – The Jazz are 0-7 ATS (-14.9 ppg) since March 05, 2001 as a road favorite after a road win in which their DPA was positive. The Jazz are 5-0 ATS (9.3 ppg) since March 13, 2005 on the road versus the Pistons. The Pistons are 8-0 ATS (4.3 ppg) since April 13, 2008 at home when seeking revenge for a loss in which they led at the half. The Pistons are 0-8 ATS (-10.2 ppg) since January 23, 2009 at home after a game at home in which they committed fewer than ten turnovers.

Bobcats at 76ers – The Bobcats are 13-0-1 ATS (13.3 ppg) since March 04, 2008 off a win in which they trailed by 10+ points. The Bobcats are 7-0 ATS (9.3 ppg) since April 14, 2007 as a favorite after a game in which they shot less than 40% from the field. The 76ers are 0-7 ATS (-7.7 ppg) since December 03, 2008 at home when both they and their opponent have no rest.

Knicks at Spurs – The League is 9-0-2 ATS (7.3 ppg) since February 26, 2008 on the road with at most one day of rest after a game at home in which they attmpted at least 10 fewer three pointers than their season-to-date average. The Knicks are 0-8 ATS (-10.7 ppg) since November 03, 2006 with at least one day of rest off a win of four points or fewer as a dog in which they held a double digit lead. The Knicks are 8-0 ATS (9.0 ppg) since April 18, 1998 on the road when seeking revenge for a loss as a home dog in which they were out-rebounded by double-digits. The Spurs are 9-0 ATS (5.1 ppg) since December 13, 2002 at home with at most one day of rest after a game in which they attempted at least 10 more three pointers than their season-to-date average. The Spurs are 8-0-1 ATS (6.3 ppg) since November 02, 2007 at home after a game on the road in which they scored more than 30% of their points from the three-point line.

Hornets at Thunder – The Hornets are 8-0 ATS (9.4 ppg) since April 14, 1998 on the road with at least one day of rest off a home win that broke at least a four-game losing streak. The Hornets are 8-0-1 ATS (6.8 ppg) since April 02, 2006 with at most one day of rest after a game in which they shot at least 10 percentage points higher than their season-to-date average. The Hornets are 7-0 ATS (7.9 ppg) since April 07, 1997 on the road after a win in which their DPA was at least plus 15 points. The Thunder are 5-0 ATS (15.3 ppg) since March 08, 2009 at home after a game on the road in which the percentage of their baskets that were assisted was at least ten percentage points lower than their season-to-date average.

Nuggets at Timberwolves – The Nuggets are 9-0 ATS (7.5 ppg) since April 01, 2007 on the road with at least one day of rest after a game in which their opponent shot at least ten three-pointers and made at least half of them. The Timberwolves are 0-10 ATS (-10.6 ppg) since February 20, 2009 with at least one day of rest after a game in which they committed at least twenty turnovers.