Wednesday's NBA Tips
By Kevin Rogers
The Wednesday card in the NBA is loaded with 11 games to wager on, including several marquee matchups. The showdown in the Southeast Division features the Hawks looking to beat the Magic for the first time in three tries, while the Nuggets continue their East Coast swing against the Celtics. Out west, the Lakers begin a lengthy road trip in San Antonio seeking a seventh straight victory. Also, the Thunder tries to snap a two-game skid when they host the Rockets, who have beaten Oklahoma City three times this season.
Magic (50-21 SU, 39-31-1 ATS) at Hawks (45-25 SU, 41-29 ATS)
Time is running out for the Hawks to catch the Magic in the Southeast Division with Atlanta sitting 4 ½ games back with only 12 games remaining. What makes things even more difficult for the Hawks is the fact that the Magic own Mike Woodson's team with six straight victories in the series.
Orlando has won each of the first three meetings this season in pretty convincing fashion by dumping Atlanta by double-digits in each instance. The Magic is 11-1 SU and 9-3 ATS the last 12 games, including five straight road victories. The lone hiccup came against the Bobcats with no rest back on March 14, falling to Charlotte, 96-89. Interestingly enough, the Magic is 6-5 SU against the Bobcats, Heat, and Wizards, but have owned the Hawks over the last two seasons.
The Hawks have been involved in plenty of cardiac finishes over the last week by winning two games in overtime and losing a pair of games by less than three points. Atlanta downed Charlotte and San Antonio at home, but the Hawks are just 3-6 ATS the last nine games at Philips Arena. The Hawks managed a cover in a road loss at Milwaukee, the fifth ATS win in the previous six games.
Atlanta has struggled to score points against Orlando, putting up 76, 81, and 86 points in the three losses this season. Taking it back to the end of last season, the Hawks tallied 82 and 87 points in the final two losses to the Magic. The 'under' has been drilled in each of the three meetings between these teams, but the Hawks are 6-1 to the 'over' the last seven at home.
Nuggets (47-23 SU, 31-34-5 ATS) at Celtics (45-25 SU, 29-39-2 ATS)
The Celtics return home from a 2-1 SU/ATS road swing to host a Nuggets squad that is in the midst of a five-game trip. Despite losing at Utah to wrap up the trip, Boston is 5-2 SU/ATS the last seven games. The Nuggets will be playing with no rest after Tuesday's contest at New York.
Boston is a team to back as of late after some struggles through the first four months to consistently cover numbers. The Celtics took care of a pair of Texas squads by knocking off the Rockets and Mavs on a back-to-back. Boston ran out of gas in the second half of a 110-97 loss at Utah, the first time in five games the C's have allowed over 100 points. Doc Rivers' squad has done a better job of covering at home, picking up three consecutive ATS wins at TD Banknorth Garden over the Pacers, Pistons, and Knicks.
The Nuggets have stumbled recently ATS, failing to cover four straight games. Maybe Denver is just trying to slug through the final two weeks of the regular season, but the Nuggets didn't cash during a three-game homestand against the Wizards, Hornets, and Bucks (each team played with no rest). What made things more perplexing for Denver was the fact the Nuggets were 6-2 ATS the previous eight at home against teams on the second of a back-to-back prior to those three ATS losses.
The Celtics ended a successful road trip after the All-Star Break on a losing note at Denver, 115-104. Boston had won the first three games, but fell behind early at the Pepsi Center by 18 after one quarter. The C's rallied back to tie the game in the second half, but the Nuggets made a late charge to cover as 4 ½-point favorites. Denver pulled off an upset at Boston last season, 94-85 as ten-point underdogs. That victory by the Nuggets ended a three-game skid in Beantown dating back to 2006.
Rockets (36-33 SU, 32-37 ATS) at Thunder (42-27 SU, 40-29 ATS)
Oklahoma City is quickly moving backwards in the Western Conference playoff race following consecutive defeats to Indiana and San Antonio. The Thunder is tied for the 6th spot in the West with the Spurs, but OKC loses the series tiebreaker with San Antonio after the Spurs took three of four. Now, the Thunder has to break on through against another Texas team they have had problems with - the Rockets.
Houston wraps up a three-game road trip following a win at New York and a loss at Chicago. The Rockets are a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS against the Thunder this season, but this is the first meeting since December 19. At the time, Houston was 16-11 while OKC sat at 13-13. Since that time, the Rockets have been playing under .500 basketball and the Thunder are 15 games above .500.
Oklahoma City's best role this season has been off a loss, despite coming off the setback to San Antonio. The Thunder owns a 20-6 ATS mark off a defeat, including a 9-4 SU/ATS ledger at home coming off a loss. Scott Brooks' team has failed to cover consecutive home games only once this season, coming back in January against the Hornets and Pacers (OKC beat Indiana, but the Pacers covered as nine-point 'dogs).
The Rockets have taken care of their business on the road against poor teams, while struggling against better competition. Houston is 3-1 SU/ATS the last four as road 'chalk,' but just 1-4 SU/ATS the previous five games when receiving points on the highway.
Lakers (52-18 SU, 29-38-3 ATS) at Spurs (42-27 SU, 36-32-1 ATS)
San Antonio continues a killer stretch of five games when the Spurs welcome the Lakers to the AT&T Center. The Champs begin a five-game road trip, looking to extend their winning streak to seven games.
The Spurs are coming off a split of a road back-to-back set at Atlanta and Oklahoma City, pushing San Antonio into a tie for the 6th spot in the Western Conference race with the Thunder. After Wednesday's game against the Lakers, the Spurs host Cleveland on Friday followed by a Sunday road meeting in Boston.
Gregg Popovich's club has won six straight at home while going 5-1 ATS since the All-Star Break at the AT&T Center. The last four wins at home have come against below .500 teams (Hornets, Clippers, Knicks, and Warriors), but each victory came by double-digits.
The Lakers are riding a nice hot streak, but motivation to blow out teams recently may not be there. L.A. is coming off consecutive non-covers at home against Minnesota and Washington as substantial favorites, while the largest margin of victory in this span is eight points.
The home teams have split the first two meetings this season with each team winning by double-digits. The Spurs took care of the Lakers, 105-85 on January 12 as 3 ½-point favorites. San Antonio shot 57% from the floor led by Tim Duncan's 25 points and 13 rebounds. Pau Gasol missed that loss with a hamstring injury, but returned for an early February home victory over the Spurs, 101-89. The Lakers easily cashed as 2 ½-point 'chalk,' while both meetings finished 'under' the total.
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What Bettors Need To Know: Nuggets at Celtics
By SEAN MURPHY
History lesson
These two teams last met on Feb. 21 in Denver. The Nuggets won that game 114-105, covering as 4.5-point chalk.
That game flew over the posted total as both teams shot better than 51%. Both meetings last season played under the number, totaling just 179 and 190 points.
The road team won both matchups outright a year ago, but the home side remains 8-2 ATS over the last 10 meetings in this series.
East vs. West
Only two games separate the Nuggets and Celtics in the standings, but you wouldn’t know it by listening to the media.
Boston has been getting ragged on for months, only recently starting to receive some positive press thanks to a four-game winning streak (which ended on Monday night in Utah).
On Monday, Paul Pierce told reporters that he and his team are getting better every day.
“We want to be healthy, we want to be playing well, and that’s where we’re at right now,’’ Pierce said. “I’m feeling pretty good out there, man. The rhythm, the way I’m moving, the way I’m getting off the floor, getting up and down the court. It’s really starting to come together.’’
Denver has been the picture of consistency this season, losing more than two consecutive games only once. It’s easy to forget that they’re just a .500 team (17-17) away from home.
On the road again
The Nuggets kicked off one of their toughest road trips of the season on Tuesday night in New York. It’s only a five-gamer, but it will take them all over the map.
After playing in Beantown on Wednesday, they’ll head to Toronto, Orlando, and Dallas for a three game in four night trek.
Chauncey Billups isn’t exactly looking forward to living out of a suitcase for the next week.
"Brutal. Brutal road trip coming up playing against some teams that are playing really well," Billups told reporters on Monday. "We're in an intense dogfight over here, trying to maintain home-court advantage and win the division. We can have a good trip, but we have to focus on one team at a time."
Note that Denver is just 6-10-2 ATS when playing the second of back-to-back nights this season.
Home fires burning (money)
The Celtics have done a nice job defending their home court this season, posting a 21-12 SU record. That hasn’t translated into cash for their backers however, as they’ve gone a miserable 10-22-1 ATS at TD Garden.
Tonight’s game will be the first of six in a row at home for the Celtics. The homestand will see them face five consecutive Western Conference opponents before wrapping up with a date with the Cavs on April 4th.
Boston currently owns a 6-4 SU record in home games against West foes this season.
Cover troubles
The Nuggets haven’t done their backers any favors lately, dropping the cash in each of their last four games. Since starting the season 13-8 against the number, they’ve gone 18-26-5 ATS.
The Celtics have been one of the worst bets in the league for much of the season, but have shown signs of life recently. While they remain 10 games under .500 from a betting perspective, they have managed to post an 8-4-1 ATS record over their last 13 contests.
Orlando (50-21, 39-31-1 ATS) at Atlanta (45-25, 41-29 ATS)
The red-hot Magic, who conclude a three-game road trip tonight, go for the series sweep of the Hawks in this Southeast Division clash at Philips Arena.
Orlando crushed the 76ers 109-93 as an eight-point road favorite Monday and has now won three in a row SU and ATS and is 13-2 in its last 15 games (11-4 ATS). Of the Magic’s last 15 wins, 12 have been double-digit blowouts. Additionally, going back to Jan. 31, Stan Van Gundy’s club has won nine of 11 on the highway (8-3 ATS).
Atlanta came up just short in Milwaukee on Monday, falling 98-95, but it cashed as a six-point underdog to move to 5-1 ATS in its last six games. The Hawks have still won 11 of their last 16 games, including six in a row at home. Atlanta’s 5-1 ATS run follows a 4-10 ATS plunge (1-5 ATS at home).
The Magic have annihilated Atlanta three times this season, winning 93-76 (road), 113-81 (home) and 104-86 (home), easily covering the spread in all three games. Going back to January 2009, the Magic are on a 6-0 SU and ATS run in this rivalry, and they’ve cashed in four straight trips to Philips Arena. Also, the SU winner has covered the spread in each of the last 16 meetings.
In addition owning the Hawks, Orlando is on spread-covering sprees of 6-1 overall, 4-1 on the road, 8-2 versus the Eastern Conference, 6-2 against the Southeast Division, 5-0 on Wednesday and 10-4 when playing on one day of rest.
Atlanta has cashed in five of six overall, four of five against the Eastern Conference and 15 of 20 on Wednesday, but the Hawks are also in pointspread funks of 0-5 against Southeast Division rivals, 0-4 after a SU defeat and 3-8 after one day of rest.
Orlando is on “under” runs of 8-3 in divisional games, 14-6-1 after a SU win and 47-19-1 after a day off. Conversely, the Magic carry “over” trends of 4-1 overall, 4-1 on the road and 14-5 on Wednesday, while the Hawks are on “over” stretches of 11-3 overall, 6-1 at home, 8-3 in Eastern Conference contests, 36-15-1 on Wednesday and 10-3 after a SU defeat.
Lastly, these teams have stayed under the total in the last four meetings overall and five of the last seven clashes in Atlanta.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ORLANDO
Denver (47-24, 31-35-5 ATS) at Boston (45-25, 29-39-2 ATS)
After opening their five-game, seven-day road trip with a stunning loss at the Knicks last night, the Nuggets will try to quickly rebound when they make their only stop of the season at TD Garden for a clash with the Celtics, who kick off a six-game homestand tonight.
Denver’s journey began at Madison Square Garden on Tuesday, as they fell 109-104 to the Knicks as a seven-point road favorite. The Nuggets scored the game’s first 12 points but trailed for much of the fourth quarter. Although it has still won 11 of its last 16 games, Denver is now in an 0-5 ATS rut. Additionally, with Tuesday’s loss the Nuggets fell below .500 on the road this year at 17-18 (14-17-4 ATS).
Boston’s four-game SU and ATS winning streaks came to a halt with Monday’s 110-97 loss at Utah as a four-point road underdog. The Celtics took a 54-49 lead into halftime but got outscored 61-43 in the second half. Doc Rivers’ squad has won nine of its last 13 games and is 8-4-1 ATS, but Boston has been a spread-covering mess at home this year (10-22-1 ATS).
Denver pounded the Celtics 114-105 as a 4 ½-point home favorite back on Feb. 21, improving to 3-1 SU and ATS in the last four meetings. Although the road team took both of last year’s matchups, the host is still 8-2 SU and ATS in the last 10 meetings, with the chalk cashing in five of the last six. Also, the winner has covered the pointspread in each of the last 18 series clashes.
The Nuggets’ negative ATS trends of 0-5 overall, 0-5 against the Eastern Conference and 1-5-1 when playing on back-to-back days are offset by positive pointspread streaks of 19-8 against the Atlantic Division and 6-2-1 on Wednesday. Meanwhile, outside of a 4-1 ATS run overall, the Celtics are in pointspread slumps of 18-38-1 at home, 4-11-1 versus Western Conference foes and 5-12-2 after one day of rest.
The under is 6-2 in Denver’s last eight overall and 8-3 in Boston’s last 11 against the Western Conference. From there, the “over” is on runs of 10-5 for the Nuggets against the Eastern Conference, 5-3 for the Nuggets against the Atlantic Division, 9-3 for the Nuggets on Wednesday, 6-1 for the Celtics versus the Northwest Division and 5-1 for the Celtics against winning teams.
Finally, these teams have topped the total in seven of their last nine head-to-head battles overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
L.A. Lakers (52-18, 29-38-3 ATS) at San Antonio (42-27, 36-32-1 ATS)
The Lakers take a six-game winning streak to the AT&T Center where they tip off a five-game, eight-day road trip with a battle against the Spurs.
Los Angeles jumped on Washington early on Sunday and won 99-92, but it let off the gas in the fourth quarter and failed to cover as a 12-point home favorite. During the Lakers’ six-game run, they’ve won three straight as a visitor (2-1 ATS) after a four-game road losing skid. Although Los Angeles has won 14 of 19 overall, it is 4-11-1 ATS since the All-Star break (2-6 ATS on the road).
San Antonio split a two-game, two-day road trip to start this week, losing 119-114 in overtime at Atlanta on Sunday (as a 3½-point underdog) and holding on 99-96 at Oklahoma City on Monday (as a five-point pup). Despite continuing to play without All-Star point guard Tony Parker (broken hand), the Spurs have won 10 of 13, going 10-2 ATS in the last 12. San Antonio has played 17 of its last 23 games on the highway, but those six home games all ended in victories (5-1 ATS).
These rivals have split their first two meetings this season, with the host easily holding serve in each contest (105-85 Spurs win as a 3½-point chalk; 101-89 Lakers win as a 2½-point favorite). Los Angeles is 8-3 SU and ATS in the last 11 meetings; the home team has taken eight of the last 10 (6-4 ATS); and the SU winner has covered the number in seven of the last eight battles (including the last four in a row).
L.A.’s spread-covering woes include 4-11-1 overall, 2-5-1 against the Western Conference, 3-7-1 after a SU win and 1-5-1 when coming off two days of rest. Conversely, San Antonio is on pointspread surges of 10-2 overall, 4-0 at home, 7-0 in Western Conference games, 10-4-1 against the Pacific Division, 5-2 against winning teams and 4-1 after one day of rest.
The Lakers carry a slew of “under” trends, including 4-1 overall, 4-1 on the road, 9-2 in Western Conference contests, 6-1 against the Southwest Division, 10-1 after a non-cover, 8-2 versus winning teams and 20-6 when playing after two days of rest. The under is also 9-4 in the Spurs’ last 13 after a spread-cover, 8-2 in the Spurs’ last 10 after a victory, 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between these squads and 10-3 in the last 13 battles in San Antonio.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN ANTONIO and UNDER
NBA RoundUp For 3/24
By Dan Bebe
Timberwolves @ Bobcats - Charlotte by 10.5 with a total of 196.5. This is a ton of points for Charlotte to be laying on the second day of a back-to-back, and this number is going to come down because of OT last night. Still, Charlotte has shown the ability to play on back-to-back days, most likely because they rely on defense to win and not running and gunning. They don't need to hit 50% of their jumpers to take home the "W", and the question I have is whether they'll be able to cover this huge number. Charlotte is 13-5 ATS on back-to-backs, so that's a strong number in our favor, but this game just doesn't jump out at me as a good one to bet on. The Wolves appear to have just about called it quits on this season, and the road hasn't been kind to them, lately. Charlotte isn't in a look-ahead or letdown, and when we get into a game where there just aren't really any situational angles to bank on, it's probably best to skip the side. These teams played a little over a month ago, and Charlotte squeezed by Minnesota 93-92 in a game where the Bobcats clearly dictated the tempo, but again, off the overtime game last night, I just wonder if Charlotte's defensive intensity might be just one hair off from their norm. I lean to the Under again, but Minnesota definitely wants to run run run, so maybe avoiding this altogether might be the wise choice.
Jazz @ Raptors - Utah by 3 with a total of 214. This Jazz team is pretty deadly right now, and I'd be hard pressed to find a really good reason to go against them. I guess the only truly tangible reason to go against Utah would be the idea of a letdown off the Boston win at home. For Toronto, they're coming off two much-needed road wins in Jersey and Minnesota -- games they should win, and did so, even if the second one wasn't by a mighty large margin. It was just a two game trip, and to a certain degree Toronto needs this game more than Utah, but I'm just not sure it quite works that way when we're talking about two teams both headed to the playoffs. There are a ton of games being played tonight, so I'm going to try to keep the write-ups a little briefer today, and those are the main situational notes. In terms of previous games, they played in Utah back in November, and not surprisingly, the Jazz won (and covered). I wouldn't call it a revenge spot, and Utah is really like an ultra-upgraded version of Toronto, so I have no idea how the Raptors are really going to beat the Jazz - it's going to take a hell of a shooting night, which is possible, but not probable. We don't work in possibilities, I lean Jazz, but weakly. I also lean to the Over, but again, very weakly.
Nuggets @ Celtics - Boston by 4.5 with a total of 206. This line looks all kinds of crazy, to me. I realize the Nugs are slumping a bit, and are also one of the NBA's poorer teams on back-to-back spots, but are they slipping so far as to be considered a half-point favorite to the Celts on a neutral court? Also, when Boston played in Denver a little over a month ago, they were 5 point dogs, or 2-point dogs on a neutral court. So, what we're seeing is either a screwball line, or oddsmakers moving the Celtics 1.5 points in the power rankings. I guess that's not all that many, but sure seems like a goodly jump for two marquee teams that don't tend to move all that far in the rankings. I know the Nuggets, roughly a .500 team ATS on the season, are 6-10 ATS on back-to-back nights, but would books really move the line an additional 1.5 points because of that? I doubt it - they know Boston's been hotter, and the Celtics draw money like nobody's business, but I'm very curious to see how this money comes in. The Nuggets appear to be the value play, but Boston has been playing very strong ball at sea level of late, but not terribly impressive ball against the best in the League. No lean at the moment on the side, but some line movement could sway me. The total of 206 looks too high, since Denver really hasn't been playing good all-around basketball, and maybe a lean to the Under is the stronger of the plays available in this game.
Magic @ Hawks - Atlanta by 1 with a total of 195.5. Here's another line that leaves me a little confused. I think a lot of people are going to be surprised to see the Hawks laying a point against one of the best teams in the NBA, but I suppose it's pretty close to fair, and just LOOKS odd. Still, they could have easily brought this line out differently, given the way the season series has gone this year. Atlanta has been absolutely killed in all 3 games with Orlando to this point, although two of those came on the second half of a back-to-back after beating Boston the night before. The first meeting, the one in Atlanta, was off 4 days of rest, so Atlanta has just been steamrolled no matter the situation. I find it very hard to believe the Magic are getting a point in a game against a team they've beaten so senselessly so far this season. And I'd say it's a sucker bet, but Indiana has beaten Detroit all 3 times before last night, and they were getting 4 points on the road (and, as I type this, they're up 11 on the Pistons), so it's just tough to know if this line is really that bad, or if the Hawks are magically in some situational spot that I'm not seeing. I'd love nothing more than to back Atlanta on triple revenge, but the manner in which they've lost the previous 3 games doesn't give me a ton of confidence. This might be another game to watch some line movement, because right now I'm grasping at reasons to like the Hawks, and not finding enough yet. That total of 195.5 is probably about where it should be, but I feel like we got a very strong offensive effort from Atlanta in this one, and I lean just slightly to the Over.
Wizards @ Pacers - Indiana by 6 with a total of 200. This is another line that's going to move before the morning comes, so if you want to try to set up a nice little overtime-related-middle, take the Pacers at -6, and take the Wiz tomorrow right before tip, since this line will probably continue to move throughout the day, assuming folks bet the Pacers like it seems they will. Indiana has been rolling, though, so if you're actually looking to make a true play on this game and not middle it, be careful with the Wizards. The Pacers have covered 6 straight, 9 of 10, and they've actually won 3 straight games. Took them long enough, right? Way back in October, I thought the Pacers were going to be a bit of a sleeper team, but they've just stunk, and now all of a sudden they're undervalued and actually winning games and playing some small amounts of defense. Indiana has beaten Washington twice this season, covering both as well. I don't know about trusting the Pacers to cover 7 or 8 points at home, which is probably where this line is headed, and I hate to do this again, but let's wait and see where this side heads. Pacers might be able to win by double digits if Washington plays as tired as you'd expect. The Wizards haven't been good on back-to-backs, so I guess we will wait the line out, and see if a play on the Pacers ever gets juicy enough to grab our interest. That total looks awfully high for a Washington team that couldn't even break 86 in overtime last night, and a Pacers team that actually showed signs of life on defense last night. Indiana also plays to the Under on back-to-back games, since they just don't like to run quite as much, and get bogged down more often on offense. I lean Under.
Kings @ Nets - Sacramento by 1.5 with a total of 196. Jersey looks like they're just about done for the season, but I'm not sure I can get behind the Kings without Tyreke Evans. I know they've been playing better, and in all likelihood the Kings still have enough offensive firepower to dispose of the lowly Nets, but with Boston on the horizon and being forced to fly cross-country to open the season's final long road trip, I just don't know if either team shows any sort of spunk in this game. This total is pretty high for two teams either unable to score (Jersey) or missing their most important offensive piece (Sacramento). The loss of Evans, in my opinion, makes the Under doubly enticing, since his replacement in the starting lineup is the defensive-minded Francisco Garcia, so it's not only an offensive downgrade, but a defensive upgrade. I loathe the side - this line isn't big enough to make Jersey look good to me, but also requires Sacramento to be focused and actually give a crap about winning these end-of-the-season road games. This one isn't a "wait and see" on the side, this one is a true recommended PASS. On the total, we already discussed the injury situation - on top of that, Jersey has been mired in a pretty ugly offensive slump - I lean Under.
Rockets @ Thunder - Oklahoma by 7 with a total of 206. Sometimes you get a play in your mind, and you want to try to find a way to pull the trigger on it, but you just know it's not perfectly wise. That, again, is the case here. On the one side we have the Thunder, slumping somewhat in losing 3 of their last 4 games, but playing their second game back home off a tough road trip, and with the Lakers coming to town in 2 days. That's a TON of angles, and they mostly balance out, in my opinion. On the other side, the Rockets finishing up a short 3-game road trip, and coming off a loss in Chicago on the back-to-back, a spot they've been absolutely terrible in this year. They also lost Shane Battier for a little while, and I just wonder if they have any gas left in the tank, since the recent wins by the Blazers and Spurs have all but eliminated the Rockets from playoff contention. Do we want to take the chance that the Rockets are done and make a play on the Thunder to blow them out? Houston has won all 3 games with Oklahoma this season, so that's certainly a point of concern. Do we want to hope that the Rockets still care about this season, play on them, and hope the Thunder are in a little bit of a look-ahead spot with Kobe on the horizon? Too many angles, if you ask me. I can't help but think the Rockets own the Thunder right now, so if forced to make a play, I'd lean Houston, but they could have given up and we won't know until that ball tips. The total of 206 is higher than any game these teams played yet this season, so I have to think oddsmakers have something up their sleeve, but I'm just not sure. I guess tiny lean to the Over, but I'd think skipping this total might be smarter.
Sixers @ Bucks - This line is OFF. You want to talk about a team that has just about given the finger to this season, that's the Sixers. They bailed on this year right around the All Star Break, and it's been a complete mess there ever since. Specifically they've won 4 games since the Break, and lost 15, and the ATS record hasn't been much better, at 6-13. It's tough to get points on most nights and still cover just 6 times. Of course, they've been a better bet on the road than at home, so it's certainly not a sure fade, but in terms of teams on a mission, Milwaukee appears to be that team. They managed to hang on against the Hawks in their first game back home off a successful West coast road trip, and that's not easy, and now, in their second game home, they get a Philly team ripe for the picking. The Bucks are pretty firmly in 5th place in the Eastern Conference playoff standings, so I don't know that this game is a must-win or anything of that sort, but if they can beat the bad teams down the stretch, Milwaukee will get to face Atlanta in the first round, and that's a much more enviable spot than drawing the Celtics, Magic or Cavs. I fear the Sixers might be getting 8 or 9 points here, which is not easy to cover, but if anyone can do it right now, it's Milwaukee, even though a lot of their recent wins have been by single digits. This isn't a strong lean either, but I don't see how anyone can back the Sixers right now - lean to Milwaukee. I like the Under without even seeing the total - the Sixers aren't scoring, and they're playing a slower game than usual. Additionally, Milwaukee has been really forcing teams into a half-court game, feeling that they can simply out-execute opponents.
Cavaliers @ Hornets - Cleveland by 6 with a total of 202. Well, we saw the Hornets come out and just stomp on the Mavericks in their last game, and Chris Paul didn't even have to do much. It just seemed like a team that had given up on the season got a second wind and felt like, hell, maybe we should play and try to have some fun. I don't think New Orleans is going to be playing a ton of defense, but they shot the crap out of the ball, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them shoot it well for the next few games. Wisely, they didn't throw Chris Paul back into the mix for 40 minutes and hope for the best, he got worked in slowly, got some time to get acclimated, and got some nice run alongside up-and-coming guards Darren Collison and Marcus Thornton. The Hornets, as usual, seem to have a promising future, but didn't really amount to much this year. I like the heart they showed with Paul coming back, and it makes me think if there's any bad team worth backing today, it's probably the Hornets. Doesn't mean I like them - the Cavs have been known to open up a 12-point lead in the final minute of a game, and the Hornets did surprise Cleveland by hanging tough on the road, so I don't know that Lebron is going to look past this team, so it's a tough one again. All that being said, I lean Hornets - this line is right about where it should be, though. I like the Over on the total - I'm not convinced the Cavs want to really crush teams with the season all but wrapped up, and I feel like Paul has inspired his team to make some buckets. Still, this is another of my weaker leans.
Lakers @ Spurs - San Antonio by 1 with a total of 196.5. Tough set of games for San Antonio: at Miami, at Orlando, vs GS (that was the easy one), at Atlanta, at Oklahoma, home for the Lakers, home for the Cavs, and then at Boston after that one. Impressively, without Tony Parker, the Spurs have gone 3-2 over the first 5 games of this painstaking stretch, and I'm sure would be elated with 2 more wins, and probably content with 1 more. This line is interesting, seeing the Spurs favored over the Lakers with both teams rested is probably going to draw some colossal money on the Lake Show. It actually reminds me a fair amount about the Orlando-Atlanta game earlier. I'm really looking for ways to back the Spurs here, but without Tony Parker, it makes it quite a bit tougher. Both teams have won their home game so far this season, so that backs a play on the Spurs, but when it comes right down to it, this line is fair. This line is spot on where it should be, and unless it moves significantly in one direction, I don't think there's a ton of value. I happen to think the Lakers win the game, since it's not really a great idea to take an opponent to beat the Lakers and not get more than 2 points. We all know what a last second Kobe shot can do. But, at the same time, oddsmakers know the Lakers are going to be a draw, and they probably could have gotten away with bringing the line out at Pick or even with the Lakers favored by a point. For that reason, I lean Spurs, and I happen to think they just want it more. We all know how the Lakers play in marquee games - lean to the Under.
Grizzlies @ Warriors - A Pick with a total of 235. Another monster of a total in Oakland, but the real question here is whether the Warriors can bounce back from another tough defeat on their home floor. Yes, they got the cover, but the Warriors just pour everything out there every night, and always seem to come up just short because of a lack of size or depth. These teams just faced off a couple days ago, and the Warriors were getting 9 points in Memphis. If we switch courts and factor in that the Warriors are rested for this one, the Grizzlies should probably be a 1-point favorite, and really, when the line is hovering around a Pick, the -1 to +1 transition is pretty negligible. So, the Warriors got murdered in Memphis, but we've seen how they play when fatigued - they just don't have the bench to play hard in 2 games in 2 days. The starters play almost the entire game, so trying to go 2 straight days just isn't happening. This time, the Warriors are rested, but they're also coming off that crazy game with the Suns. If the Warriors are going to win, they're going to need to outplay the competition by a ton. The Grizzlies are an outstanding rebounding team, so look for Memphis to dominate the offensive glass, and they could score on almost every possession. I don't really like the side, yet again, but I guess with a gun to my head, I'd think the Grizzlies win it late. The total is interesting if only because the last meeting went under the mark (courtesy of a crazy low-scoring 4th quarter), and the line on this game is exactly the same as the last one. I like the Over, though I hope the Warriors last game isn't killing the value here. I also hope the Memphis game in Sacramento is helping keep this total low enough to keep the value.
Tips and Trends
Denver Nuggets at Boston Celtics
Nuggets: Denver is anxious to get back onto the court after a shocking home defeat to the Milwaukee Bucks. Denver lost 97-102 as 10 point favorites, only their 6th SU home loss all season. The Nuggets still have the 4th best record in the entire NBA at 47-23 SU. Denver is currently in 2nd place in the Western Conference, as they are in a tight battle with Dallas for than crucial #2 seed. The Nuggets are 17-17 SU and 15-16-3 ATS on the road this season. Denver is 9-3 ATS as the listed underdog this season. Denver has been struggling to score of late, scoring less than 100 PTS in 3 consecutive games. This is shocking coming from a team that had scored 110 PTS or more in 6 of their previous 7 games. Denver averages 107.5 PPG, the 3rd most in the NBA this season. F Carmelo Anthony leads the Nuggets in scoring, averaging 28.8 PPG. Anthony is 3rd in the NBA in scoring average, trailing only LeBron James and Kevin Durant. PG Chauncey Billups is looking forward to this road trip, as he's stated how important it is for them to play well. Denver has the toughest remaining schedule of any team in the NBA.
Nuggets are 1-5-1 ATS last 7 games playing on 0 days rest.
Over is 7-2 last 9 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Key Injuries - G Ty Lawson (shoulder) is probable.
F Kenyon Martin (knee) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 97
Celtics (-4, O/U 206): Boston had impressive back to back road wins SU before losing by double digits in their last game. The Celtics beat the Rockets and the Mavericks SU in a fashion that got the rest of the league talking about the Celtics as a championship contender again. Boston is 45-25 SU, sitting in 3rd place in the Eastern Conference playoff standings. The Celtics currently have a 9.5 game lead in the Atlantic Division. Boston is also looking for some revenge against Denver tonight, as they lost SU nearly a month ago in Denver. The Celtics had held 4 straight opponents under 98 PTS before allowing the Jazz to score 110 in their most recent game. For the entire season, Boston is only allowing 94.4 PPG, the 2nd fewest in the NBA. The Celtics are 21-12 SU and 10-12-1 ATS in home games this season. Boston is only 1-5 ATS a as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 PTS this season. Boston is also only 8-13 ATS when trying to avenge an earlier season loss to an opponent. All 5 starters average double figures in PTS for the Celtics, led by F Paul Pierce. Pierce is averaging 18 PPG this season, including more than 100 3 pointers made this season.
Celtics are 4-11-1 ATS last 16 vs. Western Conference.
Over is 5-1 last 6 vs. a team with a winning SU record.
Key Injuries - None.
PROJECTED SCORE: 108 (Side of the Day)
Los Angeles Lakers at San Antonio Spurs
Lakers: Despite battling injuries up and down their roster, Los Angeles just keeps winning. The Lakers have won 6 straight games SU, and are 52-18 SU on the season. The Lakers have the 2nd best record in the entire NBA, trailing only Cleveland. Los Angeles has a 5 game lead over everyone else in the Western Conference, and there is talk of resting some key starters as the regular season winds down. Today's game represents the 1st of 5 road games for the Lakers. The Lakers are 20-13 SU and 14-18-1 ATS in road contests this season. Los Angeles is 3-6 ATS as the listed underdog this season. G Kobe Bryant has 25,612 career PTS, 1 point away from 12th place of all time NBA scorers. Bryant is averaging 27.6 PPG this season, 4th most in the NBA. F Pau Gasol is having an outstanding season, as he is 2nd on the team in PPG and 1st in RPG. Gasol is averaging a double double this season, 17.5 PPG and 11.1 RPG. Defensively, the Lakers have held each of their past 3 opponents under 100 PTS. The Lakers are 5th in the NBA in opposing FG%, allowing opponents to shoot only 44.3% this season.
Lakers are 4-11-1 ATS last 16 games overall.
Under is 10-2 last 12 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Key Injuries - C Andrew Bynum (achilles) is out.
F Luke Walton (back) is doubtful.
PROJECTED SCORE: 96 (UNDER - Total of the Day)
Spurs (-1, O/U 197): San Antonio has alternated SU wins and losses over their past 4 games after winning 4 straight games. San Antonio is trying to make a run up the Western Conference playoff standings, as they want the best seeding possible. San Antonio would really like to avoid the #8 seed, as they simply don't want to face the Lakers. San Antonio has split the season series 1-1 with the Lakers this season, but have lost 7 of their past 10 games SU overall to the Lakers. San Antonio is 42-27 SU and 36-32-1 ATS overall this season. The Spurs are currently in 6th place in the Western Conference, but are only 3.5 games back of the Mavericks for the Southwest Division lead. San Antonio is 25-10 SU and 20-14-1 ATS at home this season. Today will mark only the 3rd time this season the Spurs have played at home with a spread smaller than -3. The Spurs are 0-6 ATS after a SU win as the listed underdog this season. PG George Hill continues to shine in Tony Parker's absence, as he scored a career high 27 PTS in his last game. Hill has provided youth and versatility to San Antonio, and he is a strong candidate for the Most Improved Player Award in the NBA this season.
Spurs are 7-0 ATS last 7 vs. Western Conference.
Under is 5-1 last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
Key Injuries - G Tony Parker (hand) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 94