Wednesday's NBA Preview
By Josh Jacobs
Orlando (52-18 straight up, 44-25-1 against the spread) has been an animal at the window this season. Not only are 44 ATS wins the envy of the league in betting terms, but a 24-11-1 ATS report on the road and a 7-3 ATS stretch in its last 10 games as the visiting team have been clutch down the stretch.
So when the Magic gather back at home to take on the No. 2 seeded, Celtics (54-18 SU, 36-36 ATS) bettors will surely be itching to get down on some action. Included in this contest is real estate positioning in the standings. Boston currently holds a one-game lead over Orlando in the East, equating to added interest.
The visiting Boston Celtics are on a four-game winning streak for which they have averaged 96.8 PPG on offense, but more importantly have held opponents to scoring 87.3 PPG. The problem rearing its head; Boston covering a horrific two of the last nine games and only three of the last 14.
But there’s always contradicting numbers to take into account. While not mesmerizing by any means, the Celtics have been able to snatch up a 19-15 ATS record versus quality teams (those possessing a record above .500). On the road, a 10-6 ATS push versus those same teams playing over .500 gives the betting public some reason to start investigating Boston in this matchup.
games with the knee injury. In his three games of play since returning, Garnett has seen an average of 16:32 of action, scoring 32 points and grabbing 10 rebounds. In his absence, the Celtics struggled at the counter, conjuring up a 3-10 ATS record.
The Magic head into this showdown on a run of their own. Dwight Howard and company have been able to maintain the same offensive intensity from the start of the season by scoring 102.4 PPG in the last 10, 1.1 PPG more then the team’s 102.3 PPG on the season. Mix in a defense holding opposing teams to 95 PPG on the season (92 PPG allowed in the last nine) and you get a squad whose stacked cash with a 38-18 ATS record in its last 56 overall games.
The problem when Orlando gives up triple-digit figures to the opposition; a 4-9 ATS performance has resulted in the last 13 outings. The good news about giving up triple-digit figures is that the ‘over’ is 7-2 in the last nine games during the defensive withdrawal.
Coming off a 106-102 win over the Knicks on Monday increased the Magic’s winning streak to three games and a 10-2 SU record in the last 12. However, the ‘W’ in Madison Square Garden was also Orlando’s second straight ATS loss. But the overall picture still has the Magic successful in covering the spread against both winning and losing teams (20-10 ATS versus teams over .500 and 23-13 versus teams playing below .500).
It’s not tough to find several trends in Orlando’s favor, especially given the clubs overall success. Off one-day of rest, the Magic have created a 26-15 ATS record, are 12-2 ATS as the underdog (not applicable in this contest) and have gone 17-7 ATS (70.8%) after coming out of an ATS loss.
This is the fourth and final meeting for both teams this season. It was during Mar. 8 that the Celtics took the 86-79 home loss against the Magic, putting an end to any thoughts of a series sweep. Overall, Boston is 2-1 SU and ATS in head-to-head action this season. The ‘dog is 6-2 ATS in the last eight matchups while the home team is 21-8 ATS on the last 29 get-togethers.
The early line for this contest has the Celtics as 3 ½-point visiting underdogs with a total set at an initial, 191 ½-points.
Utah at Phoenix – 10:30 p.m. EST
To be fair, Phoenix has 12 games remaining left on its schedule. We’re talking about a team that’s three games behind Dallas for the eighth and final seed, but that’s been floundering to break the bubble down the stretch. The Suns have appeared to take the playoff run seriously as of late, taking five straight games. And even more important is the 4-1 ATS run through the same period.
But there is some explanation for the recent turn of success. For starters, three of the five wins have come against lackluster opponents (Washington, Golden State and Oklahoma City). Scoring 126.4 PPG in the same five games has been an example of outstanding offense and shooting 55.3 percent from the field is enough said.
A 7-2 SU and a 6-3 ATS report in the last nine home games is another indication of turning up the heat with time running out on the regular schedule. The problem is that during the home stand, the Suns also dropped six in a row, prompting many (including this writer) to doubt this team’s chances.
As the home favorite this season, Phoenix is 22-11 SU but has covered just 45.5 percent of those games (18-14 ATS). The surprising figure is that the Suns have outscored their opponents by an 11-point margin, giving up 94.4 PPG on defense. Even by outscoring the opposition by double-digit figures, books have been keen enough to adjust the total numbers. However, the Suns have continue to remain above the .500 mark in the ‘over’ department by going 28-24 when the total has been installed at 200-plus points.
Entering this game as an early, three-point underdog, the Jazz will bring with them a 9-4 ATS record in their last 13 games versus teams in the Pacific division. After dropping three straight contest (in Atlanta, Miami and Orlando), Utah has rebounded by taking two straight against Washington (103-88) and Oklahoma City (101-94). But the schedule has a tough look ahead in store as Phoenix, twice, Portland, and Denver are next up to bat.
Utah might be 6-4 in its last 10 road games but a 1-3 SU and ATS slide in the last four away games could be seen as a mini slump. On the road this season the Jazz have been outscored by 3.1 PPG followed by being outscored by 2.8 PPG in the last five.
The Jazz are emerging from a game against Houston and will be on a back-to-back scenario. With zero days of rest, Utah is a money gouging, 5-11 ATS this season.
The Jazz have been the bread winner in the last 10 head-to-head meetings, going 8-3 ATS in the last 10 and on a current, five game ATS winning streak. Overall, Utah is 7-3 SU in the last 10 meetings. The underdog is 11-3 in the last 14 head-to-head games.
Bonus Coverage
-- Denver and New Orleans will meet up at 8:00 p.m. EST. Books have yet to release early lines on this contest so stay tuned.
-- The Hornets are on the home front as they look to build on an 8-1 SU but not so hot 5-4 ATS record in their last nine games inside the Hive. With 26 wins and 10 losses at home and an 18-17 ATS performance as the home favorite, New Orleans has been able to trump opposing teams by flexing its defensive muscles. This is a squad holding teams to scoring a low, 90.8 PPG in its own building.
-- The Hornets are 6-0 on the ‘under’ in the last six games. Despite recording an average combined score of 181.8 PPG, books have continued to set total at an average of 195.1 points, thus the reasoning behind the six straight ‘under’ plays.
-- The Nuggets took an “L” on Monday evening against Phoenix (118-115) but was able to cover the 3 ½-point spread. A 5-1 SU run in the last six games has also given way to a not so attractive, 3-3 ATS stint. But take into account that various books have set Denver as double-digit favorites in four of the last six contests.
-- A 1-7 SU and a 2-6 ATS freefall in the last eight road games is something to be concerned about. While a 27-8 record at home has been good enough to claim fifth best in the Western Conference, the recent slide during road trips is worth taking note.
-- The Nuggets are 22-16-1 ATS with one-day of rest. It was on Monday that Denver out pointed Golden State, 99-89, covering the 8 ½-point spread.
-- New Orleans says that Peja Stojakovic (back) is expected to return to the court for Wednesday’s contest. The Hornets are 7-3 without small forward in the lineup. Tyson Chandler (ankle) has missed the last three games and is a game-time decision for a Wednesday return.
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NBA Today
SCOREBOARD
Wednesday, March 25
Boston at Orlando (8 p.m. EDT). The Atlantic Division-leading Celtics have a one-game lead over Southeast Division-leading Orlando for second place in the Eastern Conference.
STARS
Tuesday
— Kirk Hinrich, Bulls, scored 24 points filling in for injured Derrick Rose, and Chicago beat Detroit 99-91 to pull within a game of the seventh-place Pistons in the Eastern Conference.
— Tony Parker, Spurs, scored 30 points and the Spurs finally won a close finish in San Antonio, beating Golden State 107-106.
— Deron Williams and Ronnie Brewer, Jazz. Williams had 19 points and 12 assists, and Brewer scored 12 of his 17 points in the second half of Utah’s 99-86 win over Houston.
STRONG IN DEFEAT
Monta Ellis scored 27 points in Golden State’s 107-106 loss at San Antonio on Tuesday night. … Kevin Durant had 24 points in Oklahoma City’s 107-89 loss to the Los Angeles Lakers. … Tayshaun Prince and Will Bynum scored 20 points each in Detroit’s 99-91 loss at Chicago. … Aaron Brooks scored 20 points and Shane Battier added 18 in Houston’s 99-86 loss at Utah.
STREAK STOPPER
Roger Mason sank the go-ahead jumper with 23.8 seconds left and the Spurs dodged their second three-game skid of the season after last-minute losses against Boston and Houston last week, beating Golden State 107-106.
EASY WIN
The Lakers beat Oklahoma City 107-89 while leading from start to finish for the ninth time this season. All five starters were given a rest for the final 8 minutes.
ROSE RESTS
Rookie of the Year candidate Derrick Rose sat out the Chicago Bulls’ 99-91 win over the Detroit Pistons because of a bruised right wrist. Rose missed his first game after being injured on a dunk attempt in the first half of Monday’s 101-99 victory at Washington. X-rays and an MRI revealed no structural damage. Kirk Hinrich scored 24 points as his fill in.
SPEAKING
“By no means is Kirk a backup point guard. But we’ve got the best backup point guard in the league.”—Chicago’s John Salmons about teammate Kirk Hinrich, who scored 24 points filling in for injured Derrick Rose in the Bulls’ 99-91 won over Detroit on Tuesday.
MINNESOTA (20 - 51) at PHILADELPHIA (36 - 33)
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 31-39 ATS (-11.9 Units) in all games this season.
MINNESOTA is 54-69 ATS (-21.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 35-61 ATS (-32.1 Units) second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 33-48 ATS (-19.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 12-24 ATS (-14.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 17-35 ATS (-21.5 Units) in a home game where where the total is between 200 and 204.5 points since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 4-1 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 4-1 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
MILWAUKEE (31 - 40) at TORONTO (25 - 45)
Top Trends for this game.
MILWAUKEE is 21-34 ATS (-16.4 Units) second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in March games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 11-22 ATS (-13.2 Units) against Atlantic division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 45-68 ATS (-29.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 8-26 ATS (-20.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 12-24 ATS (-14.4 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 25-42 ATS (-21.2 Units) in all games this season.
TORONTO is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) second half of the season this season.
TORONTO is 7-20 ATS (-15.0 Units) in March games over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 9-18 ATS (-10.8 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
TORONTO is 14-27 ATS (-15.7 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
TORONTO is 7-20 ATS (-15.0 Units) after allowing 85 points or less over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 6-4 against the spread versus MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 6-4 straight up against MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
8 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI (38 - 32) at INDIANA (29 - 42)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANA is 6-4 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
INDIANA is 6-4 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
5 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO (45 - 24) at ATLANTA (42 - 29)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
SAN ANTONIO is 3-2 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO is 5-0 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
NEW JERSEY (30 - 40) at CLEVELAND (57 - 13)
Top Trends for this game.
NEW JERSEY is 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) in road games second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
NEW JERSEY is 24-44 ATS (-24.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
NEW JERSEY is 2-14 ATS (-13.4 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
NEW JERSEY is 25-38 ATS (-16.8 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 42-28 ATS (+11.2 Units) in all games this season.
CLEVELAND is 37-23 ATS (+11.7 Units) as a favorite this season.
CLEVELAND is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) in home games this season.
CLEVELAND is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) against Atlantic division opponents this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
NEW JERSEY is 8-7 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 9-6 straight up against NEW JERSEY over the last 3 seasons
10 of 15 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
CHARLOTTE (31 - 39) at WASHINGTON (16 - 56)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
CHARLOTTE is 6-5 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
CHARLOTTE is 6-5 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
8 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
LA CLIPPERS (17 - 54) at NEW YORK (28 - 42)
Top Trends for this game.
LA CLIPPERS are 29-42 ATS (-17.2 Units) in all games this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 25-35 ATS (-13.5 Units) as an underdog this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 23-40 ATS (-21.0 Units) second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 23-35 ATS (-15.5 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 11-22 ATS (-13.2 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 19-33 ATS (-17.3 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 12-23 ATS (-13.3 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
NEW YORK is 40-29 ATS (+8.1 Units) in all games this season.
NEW YORK is 29-18 ATS (+9.2 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
NEW YORK is 6-14 ATS (-9.4 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 210 this season.
NEW YORK is 13-25 ATS (-14.5 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
NEW YORK is 19-34 ATS (-18.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
NEW YORK is 3-2 against the spread versus LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
LA CLIPPERS is 4-1 straight up against NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
DENVER (45 - 26) at NEW ORLEANS (44 - 25)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 7-3 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 6-4 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
5 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON (54 - 18) at ORLANDO (52 - 18)
Top Trends for this game.
ORLANDO is 45-25 ATS (+17.5 Units) in all games this season.
ORLANDO is 33-23 ATS (+7.7 Units) as a favorite this season.
ORLANDO is 47-31 ATS (+12.9 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
ORLANDO is 44-28 ATS (+13.2 Units) after scoring 105 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
ORLANDO is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins this season.
ORLANDO is 20-10 ATS (+9.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
ORLANDO is 21-7 ATS (+13.3 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.
BOSTON is 103-76 ATS (+19.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 52-38 ATS (+10.2 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 30-13 ATS (+15.7 Units) revenging a home loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons.
BOSTON is 35-13 ATS (+20.7 Units) in road games revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons.
BOSTON is 52-32 ATS (+16.8 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 46-32 ATS (+10.8 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 38-23 ATS (+12.7 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
ORLANDO is 5-5 against the spread versus BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
ORLANDO is 6-4 straight up against BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
6 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE (25 - 45) at DALLAS (42 - 28)
Top Trends for this game.
GOLDEN STATE is 68-82 ATS (-22.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 12-22 ATS (-12.2 Units) in road games this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 210 this season.
DALLAS is 207-148 ATS (+44.2 Units) after a non-conference game since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
GOLDEN STATE is 11-4 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 9-6 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
8 of 15 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
UTAH (43 - 26) at PHOENIX (39 - 31)
Top Trends for this game.
PHOENIX is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
UTAH is 37-24 ATS (+10.6 Units) second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
UTAH is 46-32 ATS (+10.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
UTAH is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 29-40 ATS (-15.0 Units) in all games this season.
PHOENIX is 10-25 ATS (-17.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
PHOENIX is 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
UTAH is 7-2 against the spread versus PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
UTAH is 6-3 straight up against PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
CHARLOTTE vs. WASHINGTON
Charlotte is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games
Charlotte is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games
Washington is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Charlotte
Washington is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Charlotte
MIAMI vs. INDIANA
Miami is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Miami's last 13 games
Indiana is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indiana's last 6 games when playing at home against Miami
MILWAUKEE vs. TORONTO
Milwaukee is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Milwaukee is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Toronto is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Toronto is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
MINNESOTA vs. PHILADELPHIA
Minnesota is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Minnesota is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Philadelphia is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
NEW JERSEY vs. CLEVELAND
New Jersey is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games
New Jersey is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
Cleveland is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games when playing at home against New Jersey
Cleveland is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against New Jersey
SAN ANTONIO vs. ATLANTA
San Antonio is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 games when playing Atlanta
San Antonio is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
Atlanta is 8-0-1 ATS in its last 9 games
Atlanta is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
LA CLIPPERS vs. NEW YORK
LA Clippers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games when playing on the road against New York
LA Clippers are 3-9 SU in their last 12 games when playing on the road against New York
New York is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
New York is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
BOSTON vs. ORLANDO
Boston is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Orlando
Boston is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Orlando
Orlando is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Orlando's last 6 games at home
DENVER vs. NEW ORLEANS
Denver is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 6 games
New Orleans is 12-6 SU in its last 18 games when playing at home against Denver
The total has gone OVER in 10 of New Orleans's last 15 games when playing at home against Denver
GOLDEN STATE vs. DALLAS
Golden State is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games when playing Dallas
Golden State is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 6 games
Dallas is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games at home
UTAH vs. PHOENIX
Utah is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Phoenix
Utah is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing Phoenix
Phoenix is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Utah
Phoenix is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Hot Teams
-- Hawks won eight of their last nine games (9-0 vs spread).
-- Cavaliers won last nine games, covering one of last six.
-- 76ers won six of their last eight games.
-- Bobcats won three of their last four games.
-- Nuggets won five of their last six games. New Orleans won three in a row, 12 of last 15 games.
-- Celtics won last four games by 4-3-18-13 points. Orlando won 10 of its last 12 games.
-- Mavericks won their last eight home games.
-- Suns won their last five games (4-1 vs spread). Jazz won, covered its last three games, winning by 15-7-13 points.
Cold Teams
-- Spurs are 3-4 in last seven games (0-5 vs spread in last five).
-- Nets lost five of their last seven games.
-- Miami lost four of its last five road games. Indiana lost its last five in a row overall (0-5 vs spread).
-- Minnesota lost five in row, 16 of last 18 games.
-- Wizards lost four of their last five games.
-- Bucks lost seven of their last nine games. Toronto is 3-8 in its last 11 games.
-- Clippers lost 11 of their last 13 games. Knicks lost last five games.
-- Warriors lost three of last four games, covered seven of last nine.
Totals
-- Three of last four Atlanta games went over the total; five of Spurs' last six games stayed under.
-- Under is 6-2 in Cleveland's last eight home games.
-- Three of last four Atlanta games went over the total.
-- Under is 10-4 in Minnesota's last fourteen games; over is 4-0 in 76ers' last four games.
-- Over is 8-4 in Charlotte's last dozen games.
-- Last four Milwaukee games stayed under the total.
-- Five of last seven Clipper road games stayed under the total.
-- Last six New Orleans games stayed under; three of last four Denver games went over the total.
-- Over is 8-4 in Boston's last dozen games; last five Orlando games stayed under the total.
-- Three of last four Dallas games stayed under; seven of Golden State's last nine games went over the total.
-- Three of last four Phoenix home games stayed under the total.
Back-to Back
-- Spurs are 2-5-1 vs spread if they played the night before.
-- Miami is 8-5 vs spread if they play again the next night.
-- Warriors are 8-5 vs spread if they played the night before.
-- Suns are 3-0 vs spread at home the night before a road game.
Game of the day: Celtics at Magic
By David Chan
Boston Celtics at Orlando Magic (-3.5, 191.5)
History lesson
The Celtics hold a 2-1 edge in the season series, but the Magic won the most recent meeting 86-79 in Boston on March 8th.
Boston won and covered as 4.5-point underdogs in Orlando on January 22nd. In fact, the underdog has covered the number in six of the last eight meetings in this series.
Prior to the road team winning and covering the last two matchups, the home side had won seven games in a row, covering the spread in six of those.
In defense of the Celtics
It's no surprise that the Celtics current four-game winning streak has come on the strength of their defense. They've given up fewer than 90 points in three consecutive games, holding the Spurs, Grizzlies and Clippers to a combined 96-of-232 (41.3 percent) shooting.
Kevin Garnett's presence, albeit in limited action, has been a big part of the Celtics defensive turnaround.
Clippers center Marcus Camby made this observation following Monday's loss in Boston:
"He didn’t really get a lot of minutes tonight, Clippers center Marcus Camby said following Monday's loss to Boston, "but the guys coming off the bench seemed to be playing inspired basketball."
KG's teammates can't stop gushing about the return of their inspirational leader.
"He just changes the complexity of the game," Stephon Marbury told reporters.
Home sweet home
The Magic will play back-to-back games at home for the first time in nearly three weeks. They've been on the road for 11 of their last 18 games.
Orlando is 20-14 ATS at Amway Arena this season, but just 4-5 ATS over its last nine games as the hosting side.
There's no question where the team's focus was following Monday's road win over the Knicks.
Dwight Howard was quick to bring up Wednesday's clash with the Celtics.
"It is a big game. They’ve got a lot of their guys back, so we’re looking forward to it. They won their last couple of games and I think it’ll be a good matchup.”
'Under' the radar
If you blindly bet the under in Celtics road games and Magic home games this season you're probably not reading this preview. You're just too busy counting cash.
The under is 24-13 in Celtics away dates and 13-21 when Orlando is playing on its home floor.
To add a little more fuel to the fire, five of the last six games Boston has played in Mickey Mouse's home town have played under the total.
MINNESOTA at PHILADELPHIA
MINNESOTA: 12-2 ATS AWAY after 5+ consecutive losses
PHILADELPHIA: 17-35 ATS at home when the total is between 200 and 204.5
MILWAUKEE at TORONTO
MILWAUKEE: 13-2 UNDER AWAY against Atlantic division opponents
TORONTO: 2-11 ATS when the total is 200 to 209.5
MIAMI at INDIANA
MIAMI: 4-12 ATS when playing their 3rd game in 4 days
INDIANA: 9-0 ATS off a DD win as a road dog of 6+
SAN ANTONIO at ATLANTA
SAN ANTONIO: 4-11 ATS after playing 2 consecutive home games
ATLANTA: 11-2 ATS in March
NEW JERSEY at CLEVELAND
NEW JERSEY: 1-12 ATS as a DD underdog
CLEVELAND: 11-3 ATS against Atlantic division opponents
CHARLOTTE at WASHINGTON
CHARLOTTE: 11-2 ATS vs. division opponents
WASHINGTON: 2-12 ATS vs. division opponents
LA CLIPPERS at NEW YORK
LA CLIPPERS: 2-12 ATS after 2 consecutive non-conference games
NEW YORK: 17-8 ATS revenging a same season loss
DENVER at NEW ORLEANS
DENVER: 5-1 ATS after a combined score of 205+ in 3 straight
NEW ORLEANS: 6-15 ATS after 2+ consecutive unders
BOSTON at ORLANDO
BOSTON: 12-3 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5
ORLANDO: 21-11 ATS as a home favorite
GOLDEN STATE at DALLAS
GOLDEN STATE: 16-5 ATS off 2+ consecutive road losses
DALLAS: 10-22 ATS off a road win
UTAH at PHOENIX
UTAH: 14-4 ATS after 3+ consecutive unders
PHOENIX: 2-14 ATS after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7
Tips and Trends
Boston Celtics at Orlando Magic
Celtics: Boston is bringing All-Star forward Kevin Garnett back slowly from a knee injury, something that might be the difference against Orlando's Dwight Howard. Garnett would like to play more, but head coach Doc Rivers also needs to make sure he is healthy as the Celtics begin to defend their NBA title in about a month. “It’s very tough,” Garnett said. “The reasons why when I’m out I’m not out there on the bench is because I might jump out there in street clothes and start hooping. One of the hardest things for me is to sit down. My teammates will tell you it’s not easy being hurt, especially for me.”
Celtics are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games overall.
The UNDER is 19-8 in Boston's last 27 road games.
Key Injuries - F Leon Powe (knee) is OUT.
PROJECTED SCORE: 87 (UNDER - Total Play of the Day)
Magic (-3.5, O/U 191.5): Orlando trails Boston by just one game for the second playoff spot in the Eastern Conference, something head coach Stan Van Gundy believes is an important goal for his team. “No question,” Van Gundy said. “Homecourt, I think it’s huge. Every day, you’re playing for something.” Earning the #2 seed in the East would result in homecourt advantage for a second-round playoff series between the teams, and the Magic can also win their second straight Atlantic Division title with a victory on Wednesday. “We look at it all the time,” Orlando's Rashard Lewis said. “The most important part is we’re right on the tail of Boston and we’re trying to catch them. I think the farther we move up the better off we’ll be having homecourt advantage.”
Favorite is 2-6 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
The UNDER is 5-0 in Orlando's last 5 games overall.
Key Injuries - G Jameer Nelson (shoulder) is OUT.
PROJECTED SCORE: 90
Utah Jazz at Phoenix Suns
Jazz: Utah is coming off a 99-86 win over Houston at home on Tuesday but has struggled on the road with a 14-20 mark. In fact, the Jazz have not beaten a Western Conference opponent with a winning record on the road all season. However, they are 10-3 since Carlos Boozer returned to the lineup and an impressive 26-6 when center Mehmet Okur scores at least 19 points. Both Boozer and Okur could have big games without Amare Stoudemire defending the paint for the Suns. Utah has surprisingly won three of the last five visits to Phoenix.
Road team is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings.
The UNDER is 9-2 in Utah's last 11 games overall.
Key Injuries - NONE
PROJECTED SCORE: 111
Suns (-3.5, O/U 229): Phoenix is riding a season-high five-game winning streak, averaging 126.4 points with an average margin of victory of 16 points. The Suns edged Denver 118-115 on Monday, which was the closest win over that stretch and the only game they did not cover during the winning streak. “We can always play like that when we are focused and playing the right way,” Phoenix center Shaquille O'Neal said. “We have to rely on the teams ahead of us to falter. We have to keep fighting and see what happens.”
Suns are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
The OVER is 20-7 in Phoenix's last 27 Wednesday games.
Key Injuries - G Leandro Barbosa (knee) is OUT.
F Amare Stoudemire (eye) is OUT.
PROJECTED SCORE: 118 (Side Play of the Day)
Wednesday Research
By Indiancowboy
San Antonio vs. Atlanta
Spurs beat this team by double-digits earlier this year, they are just not playing well right now though, the Hawks are 8-0-1 ATS in their last 9 and are rolling at home. The Spurs have lost their last 5 covers, Duncan and Ginobli are both coach's decision here. I lean on the Hawks hot run at home.
NJ vs. Cleveland
I have a rule, I never bet against the Cavs, Lakers or Magic as they defy all logic. Cleveland beat this team by 8 and 24 on the road. NJ comes off a loss to Cleveland by 8 at home. Cle has won 9 in a row a home and home typically favors the dog historically.
Miami vs. Indiana
Indiana is a very tough team to beat at home. These two teams both won at home in their most recent contests as the series is 1-1 on the year. Miami comes off a big win over Memphis and beat Detroit on the road as well. Miami has a bit of revenge, are playing relatively well and are in the playoff hunt. But, again the Pacers are a tough cookie to crack at home and have been all year despite what their record might show as they have beat the Lakers (buzzer beater), Magic, Cavs and Celtics all at home this year.
Minnesota vs. Philadelphia
Minny beat this team at home by 6 earlier this year. Revenge game for Philly. Philly is hot right now winning 7 of 10, but I don't want to lay such a big net for the Twolves to fall in despite the fact they have no bench.
Milwaukee vs. Toronto
Milwaukee beat this team by 11 on the road and 12 at home earlier this year. Toronto had won prior to that in the first meeting of the year. Milwaukee comes off a loss to Portland and Orlando at home. Toronto comes off a big win over the Clippers at home. Milwaukee has been struggling due to lack of depth so I expect Toronto to do well here with some revenge despite being backed by the public.
Charlotte vs. Washington
Charlotte won by 11 earlier this year on the road and is playing very well right now. Charlotte is fighting coming off an ugly loss to Indiana so they will look to bounce-back here in a big way. This team is fighting to get into the playoffs in the East. Arenas could be back for this game - Butler is listed as doubtful and Songaila is listed as questionable.
NBA Notes Wednesday, March 25th
by GoodFella
Miami @ Indiana
-This is the 3rd meeting between these teams this season, as Miami won at Miami109-100 as 5.5 pt favs back on Nov. 22nd & Indy won at Indy 114-103 as 4.5 pt favs on Jan. 30th-
-Miami has won 2 straight games & are coming off a 12 pt home win over Memphis on Monday & the Heat are 7-3 ATS L/10 games as a road dog of.5 to 4.5-
-Indiana is 2-5 SU & 1-6 ATS their L/7 games, but they are coming off a 108-83 blowout win at Charlotte in their last game on Saturday-
-Indiana is 1-4 ATS L/5 as a favorite & they are 0-4 ATS L/4 vs a team with a winning SU record (3 of those 4 losses came at home)-
San Antonio @ Atlanta
-San Antonio beat Atlanta in the teams only meeting this season, 95-89 as 6.5 pt favs back on Dec. 10th, so Atlanta will be looking for revenge tonight-
-San Antonio is playing their 3rd game in 4 days tonight, as they are coming off a 1 pt home win over Golden St. last night & the Spurs are 2-5 ATS L/7 games following a SU win-
-San Antonio is 34 SU & 1-6 ATS L/7 games & the Spurs are 2-6 ATS L/8 games vs a team with winning SU record & all-star Tim Duncan's minutes will be limited again tonight, if he does indeed play-
-Atlanta is coming off a 12 pt home win vs Minnesota on Monday & the Hawks are now 8-1 SU & 8-0-1 ATS L/9 home games & they hold a 3.5 game lead over the Heat for that very important #4 seed in the Eastern Conference-
-Atlanta is 6-0-1 ATS L/7 games vs the Western Conference (which include: Dallas, Portland, New Orleans & Utah) & the Hawks are also 7-1 ATS L/8 home games vs a team with a road win% of .600 or higher-
Boston @ Orlando
-This is the 3rd meeting between these clubs this season, as Boston won at Orlando 90-80 as 4.5 pt dogs on Jan. 22nd & Orlando won at Boston 86-79 as 2 pt dogs on March 8th. Boston was without both KG & Rondo in that game-
-These teams are tied in the loss column with 18 losses in the battle for the #2 seed & home court advantage in round 2 of the playoffs, but Boston has 2 more games played & 2 more wins then Orlando does, to hold the 1 game lead over Orlando going into tonight-
-Orlando is 8-2-1 ATS L/11 home games vs a team with a road win% of .600 or higher & the Magic are also 5-16 ATS L/21 games as a home favorite of .5 to 4.5-
-Boston is 7-3 ATS L/10 road games vs a team with a home win% of .600 or higher & the underdog is 6-2 ATS L/8 games between these two teams-
Golden St. @ Dallas
-This is the 3rd meeting between these teams this season, as Dallas won at Dallas 117-93 as 7 pt favs back on Jan. 28th & Golden St. won at Golden St. 119-110 as 1.5 pt home dogs 12 days ago, so Dallas should be very up to avenge that loss to Nellie & his Warriors tonight-
-Golden St. is playing their 3rd road game in 4 nights tonight & they are coming off a tough 1 pt loss at San Antonio last night & the Warriors are 1-3 SU & 3-1 ATS their L/4 games & tonight is a very tough spot for the Warriors tonight-
-Dallas has not played since their 94-92 road win at Indiana on Friday night & the Mavs have just a 3 game lead over the Suns for that last playoff spot in the Western Conference with 11 games left to play in the regular season-
-Dallas is 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS their L/8 home games & they are 5-1 ATS L/6 home games vs a team with a road win% of .400 or lower-
Utah @ Phoenix
-These teams have split 2 meetings this season, as Utah won at Utah 109-97 as 2 pt favs back on Nov. 17th & Phoenix won at Phoenix 106-104 as 7.5 pt favs back on Dec. 6th, & Utah is 3-2 SU & 5-0 ATS L/5 games vs Phoenix-
-Utah is coming off a 99-86 home win over Houston last night & Utah is just 2-6 ATS L/8 games with zero days of rest. Utah is also 1-8 ATS L/9 road games vs a team with a home win% of .600 or higher-
-Phoenix is on a 5 game winning streak & are coming off a 3 pt home win over Denver on Monday, however the Sus other wins during this winning streak include celler dwellers (Thunder, Wizards, & the Warriors)-
-Phoenix is 0-4 ATS L/4 games vs a team with a win% of .600 or higher & the Suns are 1-5 ATS L/6 games as a home favorite of .5 to 4.5-