L.A. Lakers (54-20, 31-40-3 ATS) at Atlanta (47-26, 43-30 ATS)
The Lakers, finishing off a five-game road swing, head to Philips Arena for a non-conference clash with the Hawks.
Los Angeles has dropped two of its last three games SU and ATS, following a seven-game winning streak (3-4 ATS). On Monday at New Orleans, the Lakers fell 108-100 as a six-point favorite. Phil Jackson’s squad has averaged 100.1 ppg on the road this year, a notch below its overall average of 102.5 ppg, while allowing 98.4 ppg as a visitor, slightly higher than its season average of 96.9.
Atlanta is 4-2 SU and ATS in its last six starts, with all four SU wins coming at home (3-1 ATS). Most recently, tThe Hawks nabbed a 94-84 victory over Indiana on Sunday as an eight-point home chalk. For the season, Atlanta is averaging 102.0 ppg and yielding 97.4, and on the home floor, the Hawks jump to 104.9 ppg on the offensive end while allowing 96.6.
These teams last met on Nov. 1, with Los Angeles winning 118-110 and Atlanta narrowly grabbing the cash as an 8½-point underdog. It was the Hawks’ second straight spread-cover in this rivalry, following a 4-1 SU and ATS run by the Lakers. The home team has cashed in four of the last five meetings, and the SU winner is a torrid 17-1 ATS in the last 18 matchups.
The Hawks are 2-5 ATS in their last seven against the Western Conference and 1-4 ATS in their last five against the Pacific Division, but they carry positive ATS streaks of 7-2 overall, 4-1 at home, 5-1 after a SU win, 4-1 against winning teams, 4-1 as a home chalk and 5-1 laying less than five points. Atlanta is also tied for the league’s third-best ATS record.
The Lakers are 37-15-2 ATS in their last 54 starts as an underdog – all on the road – and are on a 5-1 ATS run following a non-cover, but they also shoulder negative ATS streaks of 6-13-1 overall, 0-4 after a day off, 1-4 against the Eastern Conference, 1-4 against the Southeast Division and 2-5 catching less than five points.
Atlanta is on “over” rolls of 12-5 overall, 10-1 after a SU win and 4-1 against the West, though the under has hit in four of its last five against winning teams. Los Angeles is on a bundle of “under” strings, including 5-2 overall, 10-1 getting points (all on the road), 12-5 on the highway, 8-1 after a non-cover and 27-11 against teams with a winning percentage above .600. Finally, the under is 4-2 in the last six meetings in this rivalry, though the November contest cleared the 196½ posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ATLANTA
Milwaukee (41-32, 46-26-1) at Cleveland (58-16, 36-37-1 ATS)
The Cavaliers, with the NBA’s best record, aim to keep streaking toward the playoffs when they take on the revitalized Bucks at Quicken Loans Arena.
Cleveland has peeled off victories in nine of its last 10 games, though it has gone just 4-6 ATS in that stretch. On Sunday, the Cavs topped Sacramento 97-90, but fell well short as a hefty 13½-point home chalk. Over the past five games, Lebron James and Co. have put up an average of 99.0 ppg on sturdy 49.1 percent shooting, while allowing just 89.6 ppg on 42.9 percent shooting.
Milwaukee has followed a modest two-game SU and three-game ATS skid by winning two in row SU and ATS, including a 107-89 rout of the Clippers as an 11-point home favorite Tuesday night. In their last five games, the Bucks have been outscored by an average of a 3-pointer per game (96.6-93.6), shooting 41 percent from the floor – including just 29.6 percent from long range – and allowing 47.3 percent shooting.
Milwaukee has covered in the last two meetings in this rivalry (1-1 SU), after a 4-0 SU and ATS run by Cleveland. Earlier this month, the Bucks bagged a 92-85 home victory laying 3½ points. The favorite has cashed in five of the last six clashes, but the Bucks are 5-1 ATS on their last six visits to Cleveland, and the road team is on a 10-4 ATS roll.
The Cavaliers are on ATS upswings of 4-1 on Wednesday, 9-4 laying five to 10½ points and 15-7 inside the Central Division, though they are also 2-7 ATS in their last nine at home against teams with a losing road record. The Bucks, with the league’s second-best ATS record, are on nothing but positive spread-covering sprees, including 36-17-1 overall, 20-7 on the highway, 5-0 getting points on the road, 15-3 going on no rest, 7-2-1 against winning teams and 18-7-1 in Eastern Conference play.
The under for Cleveland is on runs of 5-1 overall, 5-1 at the Q (all as a chalk), 4-1 against winning teams, 22-6-1 in division play and 6-2 in the Eastern Conference. Likewise, Milwaukee is on “under” streaks of 9-4 overall, 4-0 against winning teams, 9-1 in the division, 7-2 going on no rest and 5-2 as a road pup. Also, in this rivalry, the under has hit in four straight meetings overall, though the total has gone high in five of the last seven contests in Cleveland.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Oklahoma City (45-28, 43-30) at Boston (47-26, 30-41-2 ATS)
The Celtics, in the midst of a six-game homestand, step outside of the Eastern Conference for a contest with the upstart Thunder at TD Garden.
Boston beat Denver and Sacramento to open its homestand, then got spanked by San Antonio 94-73 Sunday as a three-point favorite for its third ATS setback in the last four games, following a 4-0 SU and ATS run. The Celtics are averaging 99.7 ppg in the home jerseys this season, while giving up 95.0 ppg, but in their last five starts overall, they’ve averaged 95.8 ppg and allowed 96.4.
Oklahoma City is on a 3-1 SU and ATS uptick after pounding Philadelphia 111-93 as a 6½-point road chalk Tuesday night. The Thunder are averaging 99.2 ppg on 44.4 percent shooting on the highway this year, while giving up a shade less on both counts, at 97.7 ppg on 44.1 percent shooting. In the past five games, Kevin Durant and Co. are outscoring foes by nearly nine ppg (101.4-92.6), shooting 49.5 percent from the floor while holding opponents to 43.3 percent.
Boston is on tears of 6-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in this rivalry, including 4-0 SU and ATS in the last four meetings (all as a chalk). On Dec. 4, the Celts torched Oklahoma City 105-87 as a four-point road favorite. The home team is 11-5 ATS in the last 16 clashes, and Doc Rivers’ troops are 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings in Beantown.
The Celtics are on ATS skids of 0-7-1 at home against teams with a winning road mark, 5-15-1 against teams with a winning percentage above .600, 5-13-1 against the Western Conference and a meager 19-40-1 at TD Garden. The Thunder have dropped their last four ATS decisions when going on no rest, but are otherwise on ATS surges of 19-9 on the road, 14-6 against winning teams and 10-3 in roadies against teams with a winning home record.
Boston is on “over” stretches of 7-1 against the Northwest Division and 19-8-1 going on two days’ rest, and the over for Oklahoma City is on upticks of 7-1 against the East and 4-1-1 going on no rest. That said, the C’s have gone under the total in five of their last seven starts overall and 10 of their last 14 against the West, and the total has stayed low in four of the last five meetings in this rivalry, with the last clash narrowly clearing the 190-point posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON
NBA RoundUp For 3/31
By Dan Bebe
Sixers @ Bobcats - Charlotte by 9 with a total of 190. The quick and easy of this one is that Charlotte definitely wants this one a heck of a lot more than Philadelphia, and after watching the Sixers play defense and rebound last night, they may be in a tough spot. Can Charlotte cover 9? I would honestly give a quick response of maybe. This one feels like a pretty accurate line, with the line actually pretty fair, and I would honestly feel like it would be a reflex play to go on the Bobcats. The Sixers, as we all remember, are okay on back-to-backs, and a far better road ATS wager than a home one. The line on this one is actually a little on the low side, given Philly playing the back-to-back, and I think that's a huge reason to be careful. When we get to this point of the season, and I won't repeat this the rest of the blog (I promise), unless the favorite, the better team, is in some sort of awful situational spot, you have to at least consider the better team. The Bobcats want and need this game far more than Philly; Charlotte is playing decent ball, but got caught with their pants down by the Raptors. I happen to think they bounce back, as they've been mighty tough at home all season long. I lean to the Bobcats. The total of 190 seems high for a Bobcats game, but both of these teams have been embroiled in some high-scoring affairs. Can we really trust Charlotte to miss a ton of shots? I actually think Charlotte might be a value on an Over right now, believe it or not.
Bucks @ Cavaliers - Cleveland by 9.5 with a total of 190. Yes, you saw that right, this game has almost the exact same spread as the previous one. Neither one of these teams is playing all that well against the spread right now. The Cavs are trying to get healed up for the Playoffs, and the Bucks are trying to get their act together and win a few games, or at least look good losing, if that's possible. Since neither team is in a particularly good or bad spot (the Bucks are the League's best back-to-back team), normally I'd say to look at the favorite, but I happen to think the Bucks are in a much stronger motivational spot, here. The Cavs don't need this game, and I don't think revenge comes into play because the loss in Milwaukee occurred without Lebron. Milwaukee is in danger of slipping behind Miami, with just a 2-game lead, and they would then have to face the Celtics instead of the Hawks in the first round. I expect to see the Bucks best effort, and I think we're getting a heck of a deal with the extra 2 points on the back-to-back. I lean Milwaukee. On the total of 190, well, it feels pretty accurate. The Cavs defense has been a little hit-or-miss lately, and I just find it hard to determine which one is going to show. I think Milwaukee wants this game, and they know Cleveland is better in the open court, so I happen to think this one squeezes Under.
Lakers @ Hawks - Atlanta by 1.5 with a total of 196. This one is going to be a doozy! The Lakers, Kobe in particular, won't take kindly to that loss in New Orleans, and the Hawks are in playoff tune-up mode right now, trying to get that confidence boosted, and it seems to be working. After a stupid loss to Philadelphia, the Hawks came back home and throttled the suddenly hot Indiana Pacers. And now, the Hawks get the Lakers and the Cavs to prove they're playoff-ready. The Lakers beat Atlanta in an incredibly high-scoring game in LA back in November, but that was when neither team had a care in the world. The final score of 228 certainly backs that assessment. But now, we're talking about an angry Lakers team, an inspired Hawks team, a rocking arena (finally). This one has all the makings of a mostly-meaningless classic. With the Lakers on the final game of this strenuous road trip, I can't help but think some of these guys aren't going to care quite as much as Kobe. I have a slight lean to Atlanta. The total looks too high. The Hawks aren't pushing the tempo like they used to, and they're defending better. We're not going to see another 228, and the Lakers-Hornets game probably should have stayed under the total, if not for an absurd ending that featured about 15 fouls and a near-70-point 4th quarter. I lean Under.
Clippers @ Raptors - Toronto by 9.5 with a total of 204. It's pretty clear the Clippers are about done. Toronto needs this game like crazy, and I hate to say it, but everything points to a blowout. There's almost nothing going on in this one to make me think the Clippers have a reason to play. They're without their point guard, they're tired, they had to travel through customs off a game in Milwaukee, they're losing an hour to the time change, and, well, they stink. Lean to the Raptors. The total of 204 is too high. Clippers have no offense, so Toronto would need to score 110 to make this one relevant. Lean to the Under.
Thunder @ Celtics - This line is OFF. The Thunder can be pretty scary at times, and while I'd love to back them here, I'm not sure the value is there. Oklahoma is coming off beating the hell out of Philadelphia last night, and Boston is coming off getting hammered at home by the Celtics. We know how Boston loves to make examples out of young teams on the rise, but do they still have it in them? This is a screwy game, and I honestly don't have terribly strong feelings in either direction. I happen to think Boston brings their A game, but I also think Oklahoma makes the same strong play. No lean on the side. They played an ultra-slow game in Oklahoma earlier this year, so I wonder how this one plays out. I'm inclined to believe Boston keeps it nice and slow, so I'd love to say I lean Under. I guess I'm just getting into the playoff mindset. But the Thunder are 7-7 ATS on back-to-backs, and 8-5-1 O/U, so maybe we ought to just be careful all around with this one. With the Thunder trending over in fatigue spots, and Boston looking to keep the game slow, it could very well find an equilibrium in the middle. Tiniest lean to the Under, but really, no strong feelings.
Suns @ Nets - Phoenix by 7.5 with a total of 212.5. So, the Nets got their precious win. Does that mean the pressure's off, or does that mean they stop playing hard? That's the coin-flip in this one, and that's the biggest reason to tread cautiously. The Suns aren't in a particularly good spot, having waged a furious end-of-the-game comeback to drop the Bulls last night, and Phoenix is notoriously bad in back-to-back games (6-11 ATS). This does appear to be a potential letdown spot for Phoenix, with something of an easy schedule until the last couple games of the regular season, but honestly, I just don't know what to expect. This is uncharted territory for the 2009-2010 season, with a Nets team that just avoided becoming the worst team in NBA history, and a Suns team that clinched a playoff spot with the win last night in a very tough game, but also needs to battle hard to keep any kind of advantageous spot in the Western Conference playoff standings. I would love nothing more than to back the Nets here, but I just think it's too dicey, at least until we know more about any potential Suns players getting the night off. No lean on the side as of late tonight, but let it be known I'm looking for a reason to take the Nets. The total of 212.5 should draw some good money on the over, but I'd be inclined to think Phoenix tries to rest the starters as much as humanly possible. Tiny lean to the Under.
Heat @ Pistons - This line is OFF. I still have no idea how the Pistons were favored against the Bulls in that last game. This team is in full-on tank mode. The fans aren't coming, and the veterans know they need a top draft pick way more than a late-season win. The Heat should be laying a few points on the road here, and I believe they can cover. Miami is playing outstanding defense lately, and the Pistons are a less-than-worthy opponent against that tough Miami half-court. Interestingly, these teams have only played once this year, and Miami crushed the Pistons, holding them to just 65 points. I realize the one angle that goes against Miami is some sort of revenge for that embarrassing home loss, but we're past that. We're at a point in the season where things that happened previously just aren't as important. We have to handicap the "Now", and right now, Miami is only 2 games away from stealing 5th place away from the struggling Bucks. They'd enjoy a win here, and because it's a road game, I'm guessing they'll only have to cover ~4 points. I guess we'll see, but without knowing the line, I have a lean to the Heat. Detroit's been going a little streetbal style lately, so I'm not sure how to gauge the total - we know Miami wants to keep it slow and ugly, but how effective will Detroit be at making it an exhibition game? Let's wait and see what line we're given on the total.
Wizards @ Hornets - New Orleans by 9.5 with a total of 197. A letdown spot for BOTH teams! Washington off a loss in Houston last night in a game they most certainly could have won, and New Orleans off a fine home win over the Lakers. Now, I find it very hard to believe that Chris Paul sees as many minutes in any game the rest of the way as he did against the Lake-show. The Hornets are going to win this game, there's no doubt in my mind of that, but I'm just not sure they have the gusto to cover. Washington is still winless in March, but they're terrible on back-to-backs, can't score, don't have depth, and this game has all the makings of a classic stinker. I think New Orleans might barely squeeze it out, but this is one of the weakest leans of the day, just a "tilt", and I also think Washington's completely inability to break 85 points when they're tired is going to keep this game Under the posted total. I would indeed go so far as to call that a lean to the Under. And plus, we're getting a little value on the total because of the Hornets high-scoring 4th quarter with the Lakers. That type of insane foul-crazy ending is just not likely to happen again, especially with two teams that have no impetus to "want" the game.
Kings @ Wolves - Minnesota by 2 with a total of 209.5. The Wolves are favored? What? I mean, I know the Kings are done for the season, but they just got their most important player back, and the Kings were actually a formidable opponent before Evans went down. All of the Kings' losses came against formidable opponents when they were healthy, and they did just beat these same Wolves by 14 at home. Minnesota hasn't won a game since February 23, and while I do believe Sacramento might be a little tired on the back-to-back, I also believe we're getting a nice value with a team that wants to finish the year strong. The reasons this isn't a "strong" lean? Sacramento playing the final game of a road trip, and the Kings are just 6-10 ATS on back-to-backs, so they've needed more than the usual 2 points. But man has Minnesota been a mess. I know this line is telling us to be careful, but I happen to think the Kings want to get a couple wins heading into the offseason, and this Minnesota team is beyond beatable. Slight lean to Sacramento, but I'm not sure I can overlook the situational angles telling me not to bet them. The total of 209.5 is accurate. These teams are going to score some points, but if either one of them takes a quarter off, it'll be tough to clear this number. This game is yelling at me to avoid it altogether, but if I had to offer a take on the total, I'd lean Over, since it seems like neither team is going to take this game too seriously, which means minimal defense.
Mavericks @ Grizzlies - Dallas by 2 with a total of 206. Something very odd about this line. Dallas is coming off a monster home win over the Nuggets, an inspiring event that featured a Dirk Nowitzki triple-double, and a 16-point win over one of the best in the West. Tomorrow, after this game with Memphis, Dallas plays host to the Orlando Magic. This one screams "Sandwich" game. I've already browsed the forums, and I'm seeing countless people jumping on Dallas based off one strong home win over Denver. It might look like the easiest play to ever come across your plate, but I would offer a stern warning not to dump your entire salary on the Mavs. This is a game they're going to take for granted, with Memphis seemingly done for the season. Memphis has played Dallas tough this year, and I'm not convinced the Grizzlies don't get up for this home game. Let's face it, this is the last interesting home game for the Grizzlies this season. They host New Orleans and Houston, but every other game the rest of the way is on the road. I expect this one to go an awful lot like the way the Lakers game went in New Orleans. A rabid home crowd that wants to see a superstar comes out and screams like crazy. A line that looks too good to be true turns out to be a mess, and Dallas backers are left scratching their heads. Just please be careful here. Lean to Memphis. The Grizzlies are going to try to turn this into a dogfight, since Dallas is still more a finesse team, even with Haywood and Butler in the rotation, so I would think we get off to a very quick start and slow markedly over the course of the game. The total is pretty accurate, as I see Memphis winning this game outright with totals right around 100 points apiece. I guess I could offer a tiny lean to the Under, but I think the side is the stronger play.
Rockets @ Spurs - This line is OFF. I can't help but think Manu plays in this one, as the Spurs return home off a truly unnecessary loss to the Nets, and still embroiled in a battle for playoff positioning in the West. The Rockets finally snapped a 4-game losing streak with a win last night against the Wizards, and they have been one of the League's poorer back-to-back teams (5-14 ATS). I wonder how bettors are going to react to the Spurs losing to the Nets and the Rockets winning last night (and failing to cover). I only hope that those results drive a tiny bit of money over to the Houston side, because something tells me San Antonio takes this game way more seriously than Houston. Houston has played the Spurs tough this year, so I wouldn't completely discount them, and the line is likely to be pretty hefty, but the Spurs can play some defense when they actually want to, and maybe Duncan will finally "nut up" and post some numbers against a wildly out-sized Rockets club that has struggled with big men all season long. I lean to Spurs. San Antonio is also going to try to keep it slow, though we know Houston wants to run on back-to-back, unable to play defense, and shorthanded without Shane Battier. I have to lean just slightly to the Under, since I foresee Houston struggling offensively, but this one is subject to change depending on where we see this line.
Warriors @ Jazz - This line is OFF. There are two camps here. The one that says this is a look-ahead spot for the Jazz, with a game in Los Angeles coming up in 2 days, and the one that says the Warriors have just about packed it in. I'm, frankly, just not willing to take a chance. The line is going to be monumental in size, but the Jazz are just so much stronger, that if they aren't looking ahead, this one could get ugly quick. If they are looking ahead, Utah could still potentially cover a large line against a team they should be able to push around. That's the beauty of the Jazz system - they run such indefensible sets that it almost doesn't matter if they're in a look-ahead, they'll still get their points. The question is whether they can slow down the Warriors. The Jazz should win the rebound battle by a wide margin if they're focused, but again, at this point in the season, that's a big "if." I would recommend waiting on the side - let's see some line movement before making any calls. The total is based on the same principles - if the Jazz are focused, this one stays Under, if not, the Warriors can turn this thing into a madhouse.
Knicks @ Blazers - Portland by 10 with a total of 201. There really isn't much value here on either side. The Knicks played the Jazz tough and stayed within the spread, and now they head to another difficult road venue, the Rose Garden, for another hotly contested battle. There is the potential for a look-ahead here, with Portland playing in Denver tomorrow, but the Blazers are really rolling right now, and seem to be taking just about every game with the utmost of care. They lost to these Knicks earlier this year, so it's tough for me to think the Blazers aren't going to be on their best behavior in this one, but certainly the situational angles favor New York. 10 is a ton of points, but Portland is so hot right now, it's a little tough to advocate going the other way. Slight lean to New York. Portland is also scoring like crazy, but they tend to do that on the road. Portland plays lockdown defense at home, though the obvious concern is that New York somehow gets Portland out of their comfort zone. I desperately want to take the Under and trust Portland's defense, but if they slip and look ahead just a little, this game might get up to a higher number than Portland wants. Teeny, tiny lean to the Under.
Inside the Paint - Wednesday
By Chris David
The NBA takes center stage Wednesday with a monster 13-game card. There a couple games that most wouldn’t pay to watch, but we do have a pair of non-conference affairs that deserve extra attention. Let’s take a closer look at those tilts, plus hit on some other key gaming notes.
Intriguing Action
L.A. Lakers (54-20 SU, 31-40 ATS) at Atlanta (47-26 SU, 43-30 ATS)
Phil Jackson and the Lakers will finish up their five-game road trip on Wednesday with hopes of heading home with a winning mark. Los Angeles has gone 2-2 both straight up and against the spread in its first four, which includes Monday’s loss at New Orleans (100-108). The defense has given up 101and 108 in the last two contests, which has helped the ‘over’ go 2-0. Prior to this mini-lapse, the defense held their last five opponents under 100. The ‘under’ went 5-0 during that stretch.
On Wednesday, an encounter against Atlanta awaits at Philips Arena. The Hawks are currently tied with the Celtics for the third-seed in the Eastern Conference but they do own the head-to-head tiebreaker. Mike Woodson’s team has quietly gone 7-3 both SU and ATS in their last 10 games and the setbacks have come by a total of 11 points. Atlanta has posted an incredible 30-7 SU and 23-14 ATS at home this season, which includes a current eight-game (6-2 ATS) winning streak.
These two teams haven’t squared off since the opening week of the season, when Los Angeles captured a 118-110 win. The Hawks managed to earn a back-door cover as 8 ½-point road underdogs and the combined 228 points easily eclipsed the closing total of 196. Including the victory in October, the home team has won five straight in this series.
Along with the Northwest Division, the Southeast should get four teams into the playoffs. The Lakers have gone 6-3 against the Southeast this season but they’re just 2-7 ATS. Gamblers should make a note that all three of the losses came on the road, against the Heat (111-114), Bobcats (83-98) and Magic (94-96).
The Hawks opened as 1 ½-point favorites, while the total is listed at 194.
Oklahoma City (45-28 SU, 43-30 ATS) at Boston (47-26 SU, 30-41 ATS)
The oddsmakers didn’t put out an early line on this contest since Boston’s Paul Pierce (shoulder) and Kendrick Perkins (knee) are both listed as ‘questionable.’ With or without the pair, the Celtics will still be short favorites in this spot, just based on recent history.
The Celtics have won three straight against Oklahoma City, six if you go back to the days of Seattle. Boston has gone 5-1 ATS during this run and the lone non-cover barely missed. Doc Rivers and company hammered the Thunder 105-87 as four-point road favorites in a game that was practically over after the first quarter (31-20). Surprisingly, Kevin Durant put up a 36-spot in the loss. Despite the All-Star’s stats, the Thunder has been held to 90 or less in their last four meetings against the Celtics.
Even though the head-to-head trends side with Boston, the C’s have had a bad season at home (23-13 SU, 11-25 ATS). After posting solid wins over the Nuggets (113-99) and Kings (94-86) last week at TD Garden, the club was embarrassed on Sunday in a 21-point (73-94) home loss to San Antonio.
Oklahoma City won’t have as much rest as Boston, after the club hammered Philadelphia 111-83 last night. The Thunder have played on zero days rest (see below) 14 times this season, and 11 of those games happened on the road. The team has gone 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS in their last four back-to-back spots.
Including last night’s win over the 76ers, Oklahoma City has posted a solid 21-15 SU and 23-13 ATS mark on the road. After the game, the Thunder will wrap up their three-game road trip on Saturday at Dallas.
Zero Days Rest
Ten teams played on Tuesday and eight of those clubs will be playing tonight against teams that had yesterday off. Some clubs have thrived in back-to-back spots, while others have struggled. On another note, all eight of the teams with no rest tonight will also be on the road as well.
Clippers at Raptors: Los Angeles is 5-14 SU and 7-11-1 ATS. The ‘over’ is 11-8.
Bucks at Cavaliers: Milwaukee is 12-6 SU and 15-3 ATS. The ‘under’ is 11-7.
76ers at Bobcats: Philadelphia has gone 4-13 SU and 8-9 ATS. The ‘over’ is 9-8.
Thunder at Celtics: Oklahoma City is 6-8 SU and 7-7 ATS. The ‘over’ is 8-5.
Suns at Nets: Phoenix is 7-10 SU and 6-11 ATS. The ‘over’ is 9-8.
Kings at Timberwolves: Sacramento is 7-11 SU and 6-10-2 ATS. The total is 9-9.
Wizards at Hornets: Washington has gone 5-13 SU and 6-12 ATS. The ‘under’ is 11-7.
Rockets at Spurs: Houston is 8-11 SU and 5-14 ATS. The ‘over’ is 10-9.
Totals to Watch
The Mavericks are one of the streakiest teams in the league when it comes to totals, and right now the club is on an ‘under’ run. After watching the ‘over’ go 11-4 in its previous 15, Dallas has watched the ‘under’ cash in four straight games.
Sacramento’s offense is averaging 93 PPG in its last eight, which has helped the ‘under’ go 7-1. Most would expect the attack to turn it around Wednesday when it faces Minnesota, who has given up 100-plus in 15 straight games. Despite that eye-opening streak, the Wovles have seen some high totals and they’ve been on a 4-1 ‘under’ run.
The Wizards have not only been losing, they’ve been non-competitive as well, especially on offense. During their current 16-game losing streak, the team has failed to bust triple digits once, which has translated into a 13-3 ‘under’ record.
Miami’s defense is on fire lately, holding its last five opponents to an average of 80.4 PPG, which has helped the ‘under’ go 5-0.
The Bobcats’ offense has exploded the last three games per their standards, averaging 105 PPG. The ‘over’ has gone 3-0 during this stretch. Charlotte plays Philadelphia on Wednesday and seven of the last nine in this series has gone ‘over’ the number.
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Tips and Trends
Los Angeles Lakers at Atlanta Hawks
Lakers: For a team that has the 2nd best record in the NBA, Los Angeles isn't happy. The Lakers have lost 2 of their past 3 games SU, both as the listed favorite. The Lakers end their 5 game road trip with arguably their toughest opponent during the trip with the Hawks. With C Andrew Bynum out, the Lakers players are actually bickering about their effort and lack of defense of late. The biggest question tonight is whether or not we will see an inspired effort from Los Angeles. Based on the comments from G Kobe Bryant and F Lamar Odom, it sure seems likely the Lakers play with a purpose tonight. The Lakers are 54-20 SU and 31-40-3 ATS overall this season. The Lakers have a 5 game lead over their 2nd closest pursuer in the Western Conference. The Lakers are 22-15 SU and 16-20-1 ATS away from home this season. The Lakers are 4-6 ATS as the listed underdog this season. Even more troubling is the fact the Lakers are 9-17 ATS since the 2nd half of the regular season began. Kobe Bryant leads the Lakers in scoring, averaging 27.4 PPG this season, the 4th best in the NBA this year.
Lakers are 5-2 ATS last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Under is 13-3 last 16 road games vs. a team with a home winning % greater than .600.
Key Injuries - C Andrew Bynum (achilles) is out.
F Luke Walton (back) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 102 (OVER - Total of the Day)
Hawks (-1, O/U 196): The next few games are crucial for Atlanta, as they are looking to stay ahead of the Celtics in the Eastern Conference playoff standings. Winning either of their next 2 games won't be easy though, as they face the 2 best teams in the NBA this season. The Hawks have won 8 consecutive games SU at home entering tonight. Atlanta will look to win 9 straight home games for the 1st time since 1997. The Hawks are 47-26 SU and 43-30 ATS overall this season. Atlanta is 30-7 SU and 23-14 ATS in home games this season. The Hawks aren't accustomed to playing as a small favorite, as they are only 2-1 ATS as a home favorite of 3 PTS or less. The Hawks are 9-6 ATS this month, as they play their 17th game in March. Atlanta has been held under 100 PTS in 4 consecutive games, yet still average 102 PPG this entire season. G Jamal Crawford is shooting 37.2% in his last 6 games, after shooting 45.8% the rest of the season. G Joe Johnson averages a team high 21.3 PPG this season for the Hawks.
Hawks are 4-1 ATS last 5 home games.
Over is 10-1 last 11 games following a SU win.
Key Injuries - None.
PROJECTED SCORE: 101
Dallas Mavericks at Memphis Grizzlies
Mavericks (-2, O/U 206): Dallas is 1 SU win away from becoming only the 3rd team in NBA history to have 10 consecutive seasons with at least 50 SU wins in a season, since the league expanded to an 82 game season in 1967. Dallas continues to play well since their trade that netted them F Caron Butler and C Brendan Haywood. Dallas is 49-25 SU and 31-41-1 overall this season. Dallas is 17-5 SU since the trade for Butler and Haywood. The Mavericks are 23-14 SU and 22-15 ATS in road games this season. The Mavericks are a paltry 20-33 ATS as the listed favorite this season. Digging deeper, Dallas is 5-3 ATS as a road favorite of 3 PTS or less this season. Dallas has struggled this season after a dominating performance, as they are 6-11 ATS in the game after a double digit win this season. F Dirk Nowitzki is coming off his 2nd career triple double in his last game. Nowitzki leads the Mavericks with 24.7 PPG and 7.6 RPG this season, both team highs. F Caron Butler has fit in nicely with this Mavericks offense, averaging 15.6 PPG in his 20 games with the team.
Mavericks are 4-1 ATS last 5 games as a road favorite.
Under is 4-0 last 4 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
Key Injuries - G Jose Barea (ankle) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 110 (Side of the Day)
Grizzlies: Memphis has lost back to back games SU to all but end any hopes of making the playoffs this season. Memphis is in 9th place in the Western Conference with a record of 38-35 SU and 37-34-2 ATS this season. Memphis is 6 games behind San Antonio for the 8th spot with 9 games left in the season. The Grizzlies are 22-15 SU and 17-19-1 ATS in home games this season. The Grizzlies are 3-5 ATS as a home underdog of 3 PTS or less this season. Memphis has struggled in their 1st game back home after a multi-game road trip, going 1-5 ATS in this specific scenario this year. Memphis has struggled of late because of their lack of defense. The Grizzlies have allowed 4 of their last 5 opponents to score at least 107 PTS. Offensively, Memphis has scored 102 PTS or more in 9 of their past 10 games. All 5 starters average at least 11 PPG this season, led by F Zach Randolph. Randolph averages team highs of 20.9 PPG and 11.8 RPG this season. G Rudy Gay is 2nd on the team with 19.8 PPG this year for Memphis.
Grizzlies are 7-3 ATS last 10 games as a home underdog.
Under is 4-1 last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Key Injuries - G Ronnie Brewer (hamstring) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 101