Wednesday's Best NBA Bets
Oklahoma City Thunder at Philadelphia 76ers (-1, 208)
If this was supposed to be a growing-up season for the Thunder, they still have plenty of room left to fill out in their britches. The mark of a true championship-caliber team is its ability to play on the road, and Oklahoma City has failed to live up to those expectations.
The Thunder are a mediocre 5-5 SU and ATS in their past 10 away games. In their most recent game on an opponent’s hardwood, Oklahoma City was handled by Memphis, 107-101. In four of the team’s five losses, it has surrendered 100 or more points.
"We got down 17 because our defensive effort wasn't where it needed to be," Thunder coach Scott Brooks said. "We gave them too many easy layups and points around the paint. We got back into it because we made some shots, but we still weren't playing the defense that it takes to win in this league."
And the balanced 76ers can’t wait to take advantage of those easy baskets. Philadelphia is 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS in its past 10 games thanks to a diverse attack. Five players average double-figures and seven average above 7.5 points per game. In the team’s most recent win, a 125-117 overtime win against Golden State, the team had seven players in double digits with top scorers Evan Turner (20 points), Thaddeus Young (20 points) and Lou Williams (19 points) each coming off the bench.
Pick: Philadelphia
Detroit Pistons at San Antonio Spurs (-11.5, 203)
The Spurs have the league’s best record by beating nearly all challengers this season. But they haven’t been very successful when they are installed as a large favorite.
San Antonio is a mere 3-7 ATS as a double-digit favorite this season. And it’s not like the team has exactly been playing well, either. The Spurs are 7-3 SU but just 4-6 ATS in their past 10 games overall. Even more telling, the team has been pasted by 16 points twice in its past four games, including its most recent--a 99-83 beatdown from the two-time defending champion Los Angeles Lakers.
“They were more physical then we were and very aggressive,” Spurs coach Gregg Popovich said. “I thought that we picked up our physicality and defense in the second half but that was way too late—we were down too far.”
On the other bench, Detroit is coming off a 113-102 win over the Wizards. The Pistons are just 3-7 SU in their past 10 but are a respectable 5-5 ATS over that span. Detroit also may not be good at much this season, but the team has remained competitive by scoring the ball. Over the team’s past 10 games, it has cracked the 100-point mark seven times.
Pick: Detroit
Banged-up Boston hosts Clippers
By: Michael Robinson
The Boston Celtics are shaking off injuries and a bench overhaul as they host the Los Angeles Clippers on Wednesday night.
The Celtics (46-15 straight-up, 29-30-2 against the spread) have won five straight games, although going just 2-3 ATS.
This franchise was turned upside down at the Feb. 24 trading deadline when bold GM Danny Ainge sent Kendrick Perkins and Nate Robinson to Oklahoma City for Jeff Green and Nenad Krstic. Perkins was very popular in the locker room and the team came out flat in Denver right after the trade was announced, losing 89-75 as 4½-point favorites.
Losing Perkins is still a sore spot for some players, but veterans like Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen know this could be their last title shot and don’t want to blow the chance. Boston currently holds the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference, 2.5 games ahead of the charging Bulls.
The newcomers are playing a big role. Krstic is the starting center with Shaquille and Jermaine O’Neal both sidelined with injuries. Green is proving to be a valuable sixth man and he’s settled in the last two games (16 PPG) after struggling in the first three (six PPG).
Big man Troy Murphy and swingman Sasha Pavlovic are two recent free agent bench signings (part of Ainge’s master plan). Murphy has no field goals in three games, but needs to play with Glen Davis (foot) out. Former Miami point Carlos Arroyo was also just signed, and he could back up Rajon Rondo on Wednesday with Delonte West (ankle) not definite to play.
Boston’s winning streak actually started at the Clippers on Feb. 26, two nights after the Denver debacle. The Celtics won 99-92, just failing to ‘cover’ the eight-point spread. Randy Foye had 32 points in defeat subbing in for Eric Gordon. First year phenom Blake Griffin had his customary 21 points and 11 boards.
The Celtics haven’t played since Sunday (89-83 win at Milwaukee as 7½-point favorites). That game went ‘under’ the 181-point total. The ‘over’ was 4-0 in Boston’s previous four games.
Boston is 7-4 ATS on two days rest this season (like Wednesday) and the increased practice time is vital for the new guys.
The Clippers (24-40 SU, 31-32-1 ATS) are 3-0 SU and ATS in March after a dismal February (2-12 SU, 4-10 ATS). The winning streak started with home games against Houston (106-103) and Denver (100-94). Boston is the second game of a five-game road trip.
L.A.’s last contest was Monday night, a 92-87 win as one-point ‘chalk’ at decimated Charlotte. Griffin had 17 points and 15 rebounds as the Clippers broke a four-game SU and ATS road losing streak. They’re 6-25 SU and 12-18-1 ATS away this year.
The 179 combined points scored against Charlotte went ‘under’ the 188½-point total. The ‘under’ is 4-0 in L.A.’s last four games and 7-1 in its last eight road games.
Los Angeles’ starting backcourt on Wednesday will be Mo Williams and Randy Foye. Foye is starting due to Gordon’s (23.7 PPG) wrist injury. Gordon missed all of February, but came back for the Houston and Denver games before getting reinjured.
Williams is at the point after being acquired from Cleveland at the trade deadline for Baron Davis. He’s scoring 16.8 PPG the last four games.
The question for the Clippers is whether they can score enough with Gordon out, especially on the road. Griffin (22.7 PPG) is consistent, but Foye is very streaky. The bench has a couple of helpers with center Chris Kaman and rookie guard Eric Bledsoe.
The Clippers are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Boston. The ‘under’ is 7-1 in the last eight in Beantown.
Tip-off will be 4:30 p.m. (PT) from TD Banknorth Garden. Both teams will be off until Friday. The Clippers are at New Jersey, while Boston visits Philly.
NBA Betting Preview: Mavericks at Hornets
By: Adam Markowitz
The push for the playoffs is on in NBA betting action, as there are approximately just 20 games left in the season. Wednesday night the New Orleans Hornets will try to move one step closer to nailing down their playoff berth when they take on the Dallas Mavericks.
Tip-off from New Orleans Arena in the Crescent City is set for 5:00 p.m. (PT) ET.
It's hard to think that the Mavericks are really on a pace to win 60 games this season, yet are destined to end up as the runners-up in the Southwest Division standings because they can't run down the San Antonio Spurs. The good news is that they will finish as the No. 2 seed if they do end up finishing with a better record than the Los Angeles Lakers and Oklahoma City Thunder as they are right now.
The Mavs still have to be a tad disheartened to think that they might have the second-best record in the entire league as well when this regular season is said and done with.
Also, imagine what would've happened had Dirk Nowitzki stayed in the lineup for the whole season? In games in which the German national star has played at least 22 minutes, the Mavs are a tremendous 43-9. Prorate that over 82 games, and you've got 68 wins, more than the San Antonio Spurs are going to end up with.
Needless to say, Nowitzki has played like an MVP. He has eight straight games with at least 21 points, and the team has only been beaten once in that stretch. Dirk is averaging 23.0 PPG and 6.6 RPG this year, and he is surely going to have to be the difference maker in this one on Wednesday night.
If you're the Hornets, you have to wonder if a spot in the playoffs can be maintained knowing that you don't have Chris Paul for at least the immediate future. Paul is unikely to be in the lineup on Wednesday after suffering a concussion and getting carted off on a stretcher Sunday against the Cleveland Cavaliers.
The first game out of the blocks from the Paul injury was at the Chicago Bulls, a game that ended in a woeful 85-77 defeat. This starting lineup would've looked a heck of a lot worse had Jarrett Jack not replaced Paul and scored 23 points. That only raised Jack's scoring average to 8.6 PPG, though he has averaged 18.8 PPG over the course of the month of March.
The home team has absolutely dominated the this series, winning nine straight games SU. The home team is also 5-2-2 ATS in these nine games, though one of those two ATS defeats did come this season when the Mavs lost by two as 4½-point dogs to the Hornets here in New Orleans last November.
Dallas is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 road games against teams with a home winning percentage greater than .600, and it is 22-8-1 ATS in its last 31 road games against teams with a winning home record.
Meanwhile, the Hornets are just 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games overall, including dreadful 1-6 ATS mark in their last seven games played here at New Orleans Arena.
NBA Previews
by Dan Bebe
Chicago Bulls @ Charlotte Bobcats with a total of N/A
After Chicago tackled some serious competitors on a recent road trip, they averted a letdown spot with a win (but ATS loss) at home against the Hornets. Now, back on the road just for a game, the Bulls take aim at a Bobcats team that holds a 2-1 season series edge over Chicago. Of course, this could be considered kicking a team when they're down. The Bobcats have lost 5 straight, a few in extremely ugly fashion, and though Ty Thomas and Captain Jack are both due to return for this game, I'm still not sure that the Bobcats can compete with anyone on the offensive end. Keeping this one simple - until Charlotte shows any level of competence, I can't back them. Very small public lean to BULLS and the UNDER.
Utah Jazz @ Toronto Raptors with a total of N/A
Toronto got a nice little 3 day layoff after playing back-to-back games in London (the second of which went to 3-OT), and the status of some key players on both teams remains in limbo. Kirilenko and Millsap are both banged up for the Jazz, and the Raptors, who are supposed to get Reggie Evans back (to do some rebounding) had Andrea Bargnani come down with the flu on the flight home from Her Majesty's arena. Who is going to play, and does it matter? Utah is a mess, Toronto is a mess, and since the scheduling angles don't help, and these teams haven't played since early November, we have almost nothing to work with. Someone has to win, I guess. PASS on the side, and theoretically, we should have some value on an UNDER, but let's see on the line.
Golden State Warriors @ New Jersey Nets with a total of N/A
The Nets are the other half of that London-layoff set mentioned above, and just like the Raptors, they are dealing with some personnel confusion. Deron Williams has left the team to be with his wife as they expect a child, so the Nets are going to have to rely on Jordan Farmar to run the show. He's not terrible, but he's also not Deron Williams, who could have pushed around the likes of Stephen Curry. This is a relatively bad spot for Jersey off the crazy travel and long layoff, but it's an even worse spot for the Warriors as they play the final game of a 7-game East Coast swing. Yes, the Warriors have actually played well in this type of bad spot before, so my desire to fade them isn't as strong as it might have been otherwise, but I think we'll get a favorable line without Deron, and I think the Nets should be able to control the glass. Lean to JERSEY and the UNDER.
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Philadelphia 76ers (-1) with a total of 208
This line surprises the hell out of me. The Sixers are playing a back-to-back and still laying points to the Thunder. This is either the gift of the century on Oklahoma City, or the screwball line of the year on the Sixers, and either way, I'm not sure I want anything to do with it. I've spent the better part of 15 minutes trying to find a reason why the Thunder are considered neutral court equals with the Sixers, and I'm struggling to do so. Oklahoma plays Detroit next, so it's not a look-ahead, they've won 3 of 4 in the month of March, and both superstars are playing. I guess we can wait and see how Philly's game in Indiana turns out, but I'm inclined to let this fishy one slip by. Lean to PHILLY because of the line only, and slightly to the OVER.
Los Angeles Clippers @ Boston Celtics (-10) with a total of 193
The Clippers are a perfect 3-0 in March, and while I think that zero will likely become a one at the end of this game, I'm not so sure that the Clips won't stay competitive for 44 minutes. The question is, when Boston finally decides to turn up the heat, will they go up by 12 or by 8, and will LA make that one bucket in 4-5 tries that we'll need to cover. I think I'd be willing to take that chance with the underdog. The Clippers were 8-point home underdogs to the Celtics in LA and Boston took that game by 7. I think the Clippers are getting some confidence back even without Eric Gordon healthy, and with Griffin doing the rebounding and the Celtics not nearly as formidable inside as they were 2 weeks ago, LA could get a few 2nd chance points and that might be enough. Chris Kaman is getting closer to full strength, Mo Williams is more of a threat from the outside than Baron Davis, and the decent play of Eric Bledsoe and Randy Foye is helping make up for Gordon's loss. And something still isn't quite right with Boston's defense. If the Celtics keep having to run D-Leaguers out there for the second unit, I think they'll struggle to pull away. Lean to the CLIPS and the OVER.
Dallas Mavericks @ New Orleans Hornets with a total of N/A
I'd be surprised if Chris Paul returned this quickly from a mild concussion, but that's most likely why we're without a line, here. Tyson Chandler is slated to come back for Dallas, so that helps the already insanely-deep Mavs up front, and outside of that, we have a Dallas team that got a win up in Minny (but a failed ATS effort) to start a new winning streak, and a Hornets team that was just starting to show some signs of life before Paul went down. We also have two rivals that haven't played since a home-and-home back in November, and we have Dallas hosting the Knicks and Lakers after this game. And finally, we have Mardi Gras in New Orleans and a Hornets team coming home from a 5-game road trip (because of said party) - you have to think the home team might be a little anxious to snag a few beads in their day off. Small lean to DALLAS if the number is decent, and the UNDER.
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Milwaukee Bucks with a total of N/A
Isn't this the game we've all been waiting for? Can't win versus can't score. Hooray. The season series is tied at 1 game apiece, so no real strong revenge angles. Neither club is good enough to worry about a look-ahead to some sort of rivalry, so nothing there either. And both teams are playing the second half of a back-to-back, so that doesn't help us pick a side, either. You know what? Screw it. When a game just isn't interesting, we can't manufacture angles. PASS on the side, OVER lean on the total from both teams playing tired.
Indiana Pacers @ Minnesota Timberwolves with a total of N/A
Kevin Love's knee is a genuine concern, and though a missed game for the rebounding menace might not be a bad idea for his health, I can't see the Wolves making up for his skills. Fact is, they don't have the guys on the bench that can step up and rebound like Love can, so the Injured Star Theory, to me, doesn't really apply. It's not like losing a scorer, where someone else can usually can a few shots - this is the one guy on the Wolves that consistently gets second chance opportunities and makes sure the opponents don't. Without him, the Wolves are a jump-shooting, poor-rebounding team. They're Toronto, but younger. Indiana is slumping too, so they're not exactly a tempting play, but I can't back the Wolves without their only rebounder. Tiny side lean to the PACERS, and the OVER, since this one could turn into streetball.
New York Knicks @ Memphis Grizzlies with a total of N/A
From an entertainment perspective, I like this game quite a bit. The Knicks are retooled, showing signs of playing some defense, and looking poised to be "that team" in the Playoffs, and the Grizzlies are using their superior strength to beat teams into submission with quality offense out of the half-court. The problem is that, from a betting standpoint, we don't have a whole lot to stand on. The Knicks play in Dallas tomorrow, and the Grizzlies play in Miami in 3 days. I suppose you could argue the Grizz have a look-ahead, but the long layoff nullifies that, to some degree. In addition, these two teams play again, in New York, in about a week. I'd rather just watch this game and see how the two teams attack one another, then make a move in the rematch. This should be a damn good game, though. Miniscule lean to the GRIZZ and the OVER.
Detroit Pistons @ San Antonio Spurs (-12.5) with a total of 203
A pretty high total is the first thing I notice about this game, but then, maybe it's not so crazy. Okay, yeah, it's pretty crazy. These two teams played each other in Motown on February 8th and the posted total was 188.5. The final total? 189. You'd think oddsmakers might feel inclined to, oh, I dunno, leave it pretty close to the same, but instead we're seeing a number 15 points higher? Mind-boggling, and possibly a hand-tip. Yes, Detroit has been playing a faster tempo since the player boycott (and subsequent roster shuffle), but 15 points? Detroit happened to be a 6.5-point home underdog in that game and lost by 11, so the venue adjustment is about right if we disregard revenge...which we're not. I think there's a little bit of value on the Pistons side (even though the Spurs might want to beat up on someone after that Lakers mess), and I think the high total is telling us that the teams are going to put some points on the board. Lean to the PISTONS and the OVER.
Orlando Magic @ Sacramento Kings with a total of N/A
And finally, we arrive at the very last game on the board, yet another contest without a line. Why? Who the heck knows. I don't believe Tyreke Evans is expected back just yet, and we know darn well that Dwight Howard served his one game suspension. Oddsmakers, time for you to take your balls and remove them from the tea-cozy. Maybe they're all tired of getting beat like bongos, courtesy of a few red-hot Pregame peeps. Anyway, angles: Orlando is playing the first game of a 5-game trip, so they may very well put a nice effort out there; Orlando lost at home to the Kings only a couple weeks back, and that loss started the Magic on their hot run that took a hit with an exhaustion-aided loss to the Bulls and a suspension-aided loss to the Blazers; Dwight Howard will likely return to the lineup with a certain level of anger; the Kings got creamed by the Rockets in their last game, and DeMarcus Cousins turned an ankle late in that contest. Supposedly the sprain wasn't that bad, and if that's really why this line is off, I think I might have a tantrum. Either way, squares get the vote here - lean to the road MAGIC and the UNDER.