San Antonio (50-31, 44-36-1 ATS) at Dallas (54-27, 36-44-1 ATS)
Two Texas rivals wrap up regular-season play when the Mavericks try to lock down the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference as they welcome the Spurs to the American Airlines Center in a possible first-round playoff preview.
Dallas, which has already wrapped up the Southwest Division title, can secure the No. 2 seed with a win over the Spurs tonight or a Utah loss at home to Phoenix. The Spurs are tied with Portland for the No. 6 spot in the Western Conference, but will fall to seventh – and face Dallas in the opening round – if they lose tonight.
San Antonio is 6-2 SU and ATS in its last eight games and secured its 11th consecutive 50-win season with Monday’s 133-111 beatdown of Minnesota, easily covering as a whopping 14½-point road chalk. Going back to the end of February, the Spurs have won 18 of their last 25 games, going 18-6 ATS in the last 24, and during their current 6-2 surge, they’ve put up 107.9 ppg and allowed just 98 ppg. Although San Antonio has won five of its last seven road games (both SU and ATS), it is just barely above .500 on the highway this year at 21-19 (20-20 ATS).
Dallas has won four in a row and seven of nine, both SU and ATS, including a three-game sweep of its just-completed West Coast road trip. On Monday night, the Mavs drubbed the depleted Clippers 117-94 laying a hefty 11½ points. Dallas has averaged 110.4 ppg on stout 50.3 percent shooting in its last five starts, nearly 14 ppg better than its foes (96.8 ppg on 45.6 percent shooting). Also, the Mavs – one of the worst pointspread teams all season – have cashed in four straight games for the first time since mid-November.
Dallas is 5-1 SU and ATS in the last six meetings in this Southwest Division rivalry, winning and cashing in each of the past two contests. Most recently, the Mavs won 112-103 as a 4½-point road pup on Jan. 8. The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings and the underdog is on a 19-9 ATS roll. Dallas has also cashed in the last four battles at the American Airlines Center.
The SU winner has covered the pointspread in San Antonio’s last 20 games in a row (including 11 straight on the road), and the winner has cashed in each of Dallas’ last 11 contests (including six straight at home). Additionally, the SU winner has gotten the money in the last 13 clashes in this rivalry.
The Spurs are on a bundle of ATS tears, including 18-6 overall, 10-4 on the highway, 7-1 after a day off, 6-1 against winning teams and 12-3 in the West. The Mavericks are on ATS upswings of 5-1 after either a SU or an ATS win and 5-1 after a day off, but they’ve also gone a putrid 6-28-1 ATS in the last 35 at home.
The over is 6-1 in Dallas’ last seven against winning teams and 4-1 in its last five divisional contests, though the over has hit in five of the Mavs’ last six at home. The under is also 5-1-1 in San Antonio’s last seven roadies, but the over is 6-2 in the Spurs’ last eight division outings. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has gone high in six of the last nine clashes, with the Jan. 8 meeting soaring over the 194½-point price following a two-game “under” run.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DALLAS
Chicago (40-41, 41-38-2 ATS) at Charlotte (44-37, 44-36-1 ATS)
The Bulls, looking to snag the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference, travel to Time Warner Cable Arena to cap the regular season against the Bobcats, who already have a postseason spot locked up.
Chicago outlasted Boston 101-93 on Tuesday, cashing as a 4½-point home favorite. With the win, the Bulls moved a full game ahead of Toronto for the eighth and final playoff berth in the East. Therefore, they’ll head to the postseason for the second year in a row and fifth time in the last six years with a victory at Charlotte or a Toronto home loss to the Knicks. However, if the teams end up tied, the Raptors will get the playoff spot by virtue of a tiebreaker.
The Bulls are 9-4 in their last 13 games which follows an ugly 10-game losing skid. They’re also 11-5 ATS in their last 16, and they’ve also rebounded from a six-game road losing streak (2-4 ATS) to win four of five on the highway (SU and ATS).
Charlotte has won four of five and six of its last eight, though it has gone just 3-5 ATS in that stretch. On Monday night, the Bobcats dropped the hapless Nets 105-95 as a 4½-point road chalk to halt a three-game ATS skid. Charlotte, which has qualified for the postseason for the first time since the franchise was reborn the Bobcats, will be the No. 7 seed in the Eastern Conference and face defending conference champ Orlando in the first round.
The Bobcats have been sensational at home this year, winning 31 of 40 games (23-17 ATS) – including the last four in a row (2-2 ATS) – and they outscore visitors by exactly seven ppg (98.6-91.6).
The home team has won the last six meetings in this series (3-3 ATS). Chicago has cashed in the last two battles (1-1 SU) after a five-game ATS run by Charlotte (3-2 SU). On April 3, Chicago won 96-88 as a 4 ½-point home favorite. The underdog, though, is 5-2 ATS in the last seven matchups, and the visitor has cashed in three of the last four.
The Bulls are on ATS upswings of 6-1 on the road, 12-4 on the highway against teams with a winning home record and 4-1 when going on no rest, but they are also 11-28 in their last 39 contests against the Southeast Division. The Bobcats are on ATS purges of 2-5 overall and 0-5 against the Central Division, though they’ve gone 4-1 ATS in their last five Wednesday games.
Chicago is on “under” runs of 10-4 overall, 8-2 against Southeast Division foes and 9-3 in Eastern Conference games, but the over is 11-5 in the Bulls’ last 16 games when playing on the second of back-to-back nights. Charlotte is on “over” stretches of 4-1 overall, 7-2 at home and 4-1 on Wednesday, though the total has stayed low in nine of the Bobcats’ last 12 when returning from a day off.
Finally, the over had hit in three in a row and four of five in this rivalry before the Bulls’ 96-88 home win earlier this month landed just short of the 186-point price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Phoenix (53-28, 47-33-1 ATS) at Utah (53-28, 49-28-3 ATS)
Two teams that are part of the four-way race logjam near the top of the Western Conference playoff standings collide when the scorching-hot Suns travel to EnergySolutions Arena to face the Jazz in the regular-season finale.
Phoenix hosted Denver on Tuesday and cruised to a 123-101 victory, easily covering as a five-point home favorite. With the win, the Suns moved to 13-2 in their last 15 games (10-4-1 ATS). With the victory, Phoenix assured itself of at least the No. 4 seed in the upcoming playoffs, meaning it will have home-court advantage in the first round. With a victory tonight, the Suns would move to the No. 3 slot and host either the Trailblazers or Spurs in the first round. A lost would give Phoenix the No. 4 seed and ensure a first-round matchup with the Nuggets.
Utah returns home after Tuesday’s 103-94 victory at Golden State, barely covering as an eight-point road favorite. The Jazz are 9-3 in their last 12 contests (7-5 ATS), and their playoff situation is quite cloudy. If Utah beats Phoenix tonight, it will at least claim the Northwest Division title and No.3 seed in the West. But if the Jazz win and the Mavericks lose at home to the Spurs, Utah will shoot up to the No. 2 slot. A loss tonight would relegate the Jazz to the No. 5 seed and cost them the home-court edge in the first round.
The Suns have followed up a season-best six-game road winning streak (4-2 ATS) in which they averaged 117.3 ppg by dropping their last two as a visitor (SU and ATS), scoring just 98 and 91 points in the two defeats. For the season, Phoenix is 21-19 on the road (22-18 ATS), averaging exactly as many points per game (108) as they’ve given up.
The Jazz enter this one riding a 10-game home winning streak and they’ve won 32 of 40 at Energy Solutions Arena this year, going a stellar 26-12-2 ATS. Utah has also outscored visitors by just over 10 ppg this season, averaging 108.2 ppg on solid 51.5 percent shooting, while allowing 98.1 ppg on 44.3 percent shooting.
Phoenix topped Utah 110-100 as a 5½-point home chalk on March 19, ending a three-game SU run (2-1 ATS) by the Jazz in this rivalry. Utah is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 clashes, with the home team winning eight of those 10 contests.
The Suns sport nothing but positive ATS streaks, including 24-9-1 overall, 11-5 on the road, 14-5 against teams with a winning percentage above .600, 4-0 on Wednesday and 18-7-1 in Western Conference action. The Jazz are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight starts against winning teams, but are otherwise on spread-covering rolls of 31-13-3 overall, 23-8-2 at home, 5-1 coming off a road trip of seven or more days, 5-1 when playing on back-to-back nights and 21-9-2 against Western Conference foes.
Additionally, the Jazz and Suns rank second and third, respectively, in the overall pointspread standings.
The over has hit in six of the last eight meetings in this rivalry, and Phoenix is on “over” upticks of 3-0-1 when playing on no rest, 7-2 against winning teams and 31-14 on Wednesday, while the total has also gone high in six of Utah’s last eight against winning teams. On the flip side, the Suns are on “under” runs of 4-1 against the Northwest Division and 5-3 in the Western Conference, and the Jazz carry “under” streaks of 4-0 on the second night of a back-to-back and 4-0-1 against Pacific Division foes.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UTAH
Trend Report - Wednesday
By Ed Meyer
Bulls at Bobcats – The Bobcats are 0-6 ATS (-10.2 ppg) since April 18, 2007 after a road win in which they outshot their opponent by at least 10 percent. The Bobcats are 8-0 ATS (13.6 ppg) since January 17, 2009 at home after a game in which they scored less than 10% of their points from the three-point line.
Bucks at Celtics – The Bucks are 10-0 ATS (6.0 ppg) since December 02, 2009 on the road after a game at home in which they scored less than 15% of their points from the free throw line. The Bucks are 9-0 ATS (6.3 ppg) since December 18, 2009 on the road after a game in which they had an assist to turnover ratio of at least two. The Bucks are 0-6 ATS (-4.2 ppg) since February 11, 1998 on the road after a loss against the Hawks.
Lakers at Clippers – The Clippers are 4-0 ATS (5.6 ppg) since March 17, 2010 with at least one day of rest after a loss in which they scored less than 15% of their points from the free throw line.
Cavaliers at Hawks – The Hawks are 8-0 ATS (9.9 ppg) since November 16, 2002 at home with at least one day of rest after a game on the road in which they allowed less than 40% from the field. The Hawks are 5-0 ATS (5.4 ppg) since March 13, 2010 after a game in which they shot at least 50% from the field.
Nets at Heat – The Nets are 6-0 ATS (5.9 ppg) since December 29, 2006 on the road versus the Heat. The Nets are 0-6 ATS (-6.3 ppg) since April 04, 2009 on the road after a game at home in which their field goal attempt per turnover ratio was at least eight. The Heat are 0-10 ATS (-8.6 ppg) since May 23, 2005 at home when they won their last two games and both were on the road. The Heat are 0-6 ATS (-10.3 ppg) since November 12, 2008 at home with at least one day of rest off a win in which they trailed at the end of the third quarter.
Suns at Jazz – The Suns are 0-6 ATS (-9.9 ppg) since March 26, 2009 on the road with no rest after a win in which they shot at least 50% from the field. The Jazz are 5-0 ATS (11.9 ppg) since December 10, 2009 when their DPS was minus 15 points or less in their previous game.
76ers at Magic – The Sixers are 0-7 ATS (-7.2 ppg) since November 27, 2009 with at least one day of rest off a loss in which they led at the end of the third quarter. The Magic are 6-0 ATS (10.6 ppg) since December 08, 2009 after a win in which they scored more than 25% of their points from the free throw line.
Spurs at Mavericks – The Spurs are 7-0 ATS (7.1 ppg) since May 19, 2008 on the road after a game at home in which they scored more than 30% of their points from the three-point line. The Spurs are 0-7 ATS (-6.8 ppg) since January 15, 2007 on the road off a home win in which their leading scorer for that game had fewer than 20 points.
Knicks at Raptors – The Knicks are 0-7 ATS (-12.5 ppg) since January 28, 2000 on the road with at least one day of rest after a home win in which they allowed at least 50% from the field. The Raptors are 7-0 ATS (13.7 ppg) since April 07, 2004 off a road win that broke at least a four-game losing streak.
Hornets at Rockets – The Hornets are 7-0 ATS (9.6 ppg) since April 02, 2006 on the road with at least one day of rest after a win in which they shot at least 50% from the field and at least 85% from the free-throw line. The Rockets are 0-6 ATS (-10.0 ppg) since March 12, 1997 at home when seeking revenge for a road loss in which they shot less than 60% from the free throw line.
Grizzlies at Thunder – The Grizzlies are 0-5 ATS (-6.7 ppg) since March 30, 2003 on the road with at least one day of rest after a double digit road loss in which they scored more than 25% of their points from the free throw line. The Thunder are 8-0 ATS (8.9 ppg) since December 19, 2008 at home after a loss in which Russell Westbrook had more turnovers than assists. The Thunder are 8-0 ATS (9.7 ppg) since November 03, 2009 after a loss in which they had fewer than fifteen assists.
Pistons at Timberwolves – The Pistons are 0-5 ATS (-13.1 ppg) since March 15, 2010 with at least one day of rest after a loss in which they allowed at least 50% from the field. The Timberwolves are 11-0-1 ATS (6.9 ppg) since January 02, 1996 at home after playing on the road against the Spurs. The Timberwolves are 0-6 ATS (-14.3 ppg) since December 17, 2008 with at most one day of rest after a game on the road in which their DPA was at least plus 15 points.
Warriors at Trailblazers – The Trailblazers are 5-0 ATS (3.0 ppg) since January 16, 2001 at home after a win in which they had at least 15 more shot attempts than their opponent.
Pacers at Wizards – The Pacers are 0-8 ATS (-7.8 ppg) since January 15, 2007 off a home loss that broke at least a three-game winning streak. The Pacers are 6-0 ATS (7.7 ppg) since January 22, 2010 on the road when they allowed one-hundred-plus points for two straight games. The Wizards are 8-0 ATS (10.6 ppg) since March 09, 2009 with at least one day of rest after a double digit road loss in which they allowed at least 50% from the field. The Wizards are 0-7-1 ATS (-5.5 ppg) since March 28, 2007 at home off a loss in which they led at the end of each of the first three quarters.
Tips and Trends
Chicago Bulls at Charlotte Bobcats
Bulls (-2, O/U 189.5): It all comes down to 1 game, as Chicago simply needs to win tonight to punch their playoff ticket. Chicago is 40-41 SU and 41-38-2 ATS overall this season. Chicago has gone 5-2 SU in their 7 April games this season. The Bulls played clutch yesterday, as they were able to beat the Boston Celtics in a must win situation. PG Derrick Rose has really stepped up for the Bulls of late, as he's carried the team in the most critical of times. Rose had 39 PTS, 5 rebounds, and 7 assists last night against the Celtics. The Bulls are 16-24 SU and 21-19 ATS on the road this season. Chicago is 3-2 ATS as a road favorite of 3 PTS or fewer this year. Chicago is only 19-22 ATS against opponents with a winning SU record this season. The Bulls offense is playing well right now, as they've scored more than 100 PTS in 4 consecutive games. Defensively, the Bulls have held 5 of their past 7 opponents to 93 PTS or fewer. Center Joakim Noah is rounding into form, after missing time due to injuries. For the season, Noah has averaged 10.6 PPG and 10.9 RPG this season.
Bulls are 8-2 ATS last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning % greater than .600.
Over is 11-5 last 16 games playing on 0 days rest.
Key Injuries - None.
PROJECTED SCORE: 101 (Side of the Day)
Bobcats: While Charlotte has nothing to gain by winning tonight, Coach Brown has already stated he will play this game like it means something. That's because Brown believes he owes it to the NBA to play this game all out. Charlotte is sitting in 7th place in the Eastern Conference, while the Bulls and Raptors fight for the 8th and final playoff spot. The Bobcats are 44-37 SU and 44-36-1 ATS overall this season. The Bobcats have been stellar at home this season, going 31-9 SU and 23-17 ATS this season. The Bobcats are 23-17 ATS as the listed underdog this season, including 4-1 ATS as a home underdog of 3 PTS or fewer. Charlotte is 11-9 ATS after a double digit win this season. The Bobcats have struggled with the Bulls this season, losing 2 of the 3 meetings this year. Charlotte's lone win against the Bulls this year was at home by 5 PTS as a 7 point favorite. Charlotte has scored 99 PTS or more in 4 of their past 5 games heading into their regular season finale tonight. F Stephen Jackson leads the Bobcats in scoring, averaging 21.2 PPG this season. F Gerald Wallace is averaging a double double this season, 18.3 PPG and a team high 10.2 RPG.
Bobcats are 0-5 ATS last 5 vs. NBA Central.
Over is 6-2 last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Key Injuries - F Gerald Wallace (shoulder) is probable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 92