Game of the day: San Antonio Spurs at Dallas Mavericks
By Teddy Covers
Dirk-a-licious
Dirk Nowitzki has enjoyed plenty of past success against the San Antonio Spurs. Last year, Dirk was the difference maker in the Mavs’ Game 5 series clincher in their opening-round matchup against the Spurs, pouring in 31 points.
In four regular season games against San Antonio this year, Nowitzki averaged 28.8 points and 8.5 rebounds. Dallas went 3-1 SU and ATS in those ballgames.
But none of those recent performances were as good as his showing against San Antonio in Game 1. Nowitzki was near perfect, going 12-of-14 from the floor, 12-of-12 from the free-throw line and finished with a game-high 36 points.
Popovich rotated defenders at Nowitzki, giving Antonio McDyess, Matt Bonner, Richard Jefferson and Keith Bogans the opportunity to slow down Dallas’s superstar. None of them had any success.
“We tried a lot of different things and he beat them all,” Spurs head coach Greg Popovich told reporters.
“I’m going to take whatever they give me,” Nowitzki responded.
Hack-A- Dampier
The Spurs lack of answers for Nowitzki created a unique scenario in the final minutes of a tight game Sunday. Coach Popovich was an originator of the Hack-A-Shaq more than a decade ago, forcing Shaquille O’Neal to the free-throw line with a series of late-game intentional fouls. O’Neal’s struggles from the free-throw line are well documented.
Frustrated with his team’s inability to stop Nowitzki, Popovich utilized a Hack-A-Dampier strategy in the latter stages of Game 1, much to the chagrin of under bettors. On three consecutive possessions, Popovich instructed Roger Mason Jr. to foul Mavs center Erick Dampier, a 60 percent foul shooter this year, sending him to the free-throw line.
“We hoped (Dampier) would miss free throws rather than Dirk killing us the way he was,” Popovich told the media.
The strategy worked. Dampier made only five of his 12 foul shots for the game.
After the Big Three
San Antonio’s big three – Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili – all enjoyed strong Game 1 performances, combining for 71 points. As a trio, they shot well over 50 percent from the floor, hitting 29 of their 52 shot attempts.
But the rest of the Spurs team combined to produce a grand total of 10 made baskets and two free-throw attempts. The only San Antonio role player to have any sort of impact was center Antonio McDyess, with 10 points and eight boards in 24 minutes of action.
Spurs head coach Greg Popovich wasn’t shy about criticizing his team in his post-game comments to reporters. Basically, Pop called out his entire bench.
“I thought we had a lot of guys who played like dogs,” he said.
Mavs series dominance
Dallas won three of the four regular-season meetings with the Spurs this year, both SU and ATS. The Mavs also won and covered Game 1 of this series.
This is nothing new. The Mavs bounced the Spurs out of the first round of the playoffs last year, beating San Antonio 4-1 and covering the spread in all four victories.
These two teams’ previous playoff matchup was also a Mavs’ victory. When Dallas went to the NBA Finals in 2006, it won a tightly-contested series with an overtime win at San Antonio in Game 7. It’s surely worth noting that Nowitzki was the difference maker in that game as well, pouring in 37 points.
One key injury
Both teams enter Wednesday’s game relatively healthy. The only potential impact injury is on the San Antonio side, with starting point guard George Hill suffering a bad ankle. Hill was a difference maker for the Spurs all year long, helping Popovich withstand injuries to both Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker.
Through 28 games in February and March, Hill averaged more than 16 points per game, while dishing nearly four assists per contest. But Hill rolled his ankle in early April, missing four games.
Since his return to the floor, he has been a non-factor. He’s averaged just four points and one assist per game in three contests since rejoining the rotation. While Hill is expected to start Game 2, his effectiveness is another question entirely.
Early line moves
The wiseguy money has come in on San Antonio and the over in Game 2. The Spurs opened as 4-point underdogs and have gone down to +3.5 from the early wagers. The total has ticked up slightly from an opener of 194 to the current number of 194.5.
NBA Combo RoundUp For 4/21
By Dan Bebe
Bobcats @ Magic - Orlando by 9 with a total of 186. This is another funny little line that has come down markedly from the game one number, though in this case, the underdog actually covered by a hair, so it's a little less surprising. So, really, this line is one of those "we don't really know, so we're just going with what happened last time" kind of lines, which one would think might be a bit exploitable, with the right information and the right situational analysis. So, what we have to think about before betting this game is what happened last night (since the results of those 4 games can impact how the public will bet this one), and which team is going to bring their better effort. The Bobcats went through the standard game one jitters, but did a fine job of bouncing back and making a game of it with the Magic, and what's really interesting is that the road team has covered all 5 meetings this year between these two clubs, including the Magic winning both games in Charlotte, and the Bobcats winning one outright in Orlando. So, who has the advantage? This line is basically spot on where the last game ended, and because the oddsmakers nailed the total, they didn't really have to move that, either. I fear that some of the underdog bounceback value has been slowly sucked over the last day or two, but let's let this line settle and make a call. I'd love to back the Bobcats in this game, but I'm not at all convinced. Still, tiny, tiny lean in their direction (Bobcats), and tiny, tiny lean to the Under, since I'm not sure the first quarter is quite as quick-paced as game one.
Spurs @ Mavericks - Dallas by 3.5 with a total of 194.5. Another line that came down despite the home favorite covering in the first game, and really, it wasn't as close as the final margin would indicate. The Spurs scored 4 straight to close the game, so Dallas really was up 10 when it mattered. So, now oddsmakers put out this very short number. Can the Spurs really play all that much better than they did in the opener? This Dallas team is extremely talented, and it seemed like the Spurs got decent contributions from the important parties. They did commit 17 turnovers and get outrebounded by 11, so maybe San Antonio will work on something to remedy that situation, but as far as Dallas is concerned, they played a pretty standard, good game, and they won handily. I know Dallas is absolutely the square side of this game, but it's going to take a man-size effort from San Antonio to steal a game, and they looked overmatched in game one. Dallas never really appeared to be pushed to any sort of limit, and it almost looked like the Mavs just sort of went about their business, and a win came to them. Does that mean they'll take game two too lightly? Maybe, but exercise caution here. No lean on the side as of yet, but you've seen how I feel about both teams, so something should emerge from all this digging. The total was, once again, right on the money in game one, and I'm hard-pressed to see this one going all that differently. Both teams actually shot the ball relatively well, so gun to my head, I'd look at a slightly uglier game going Under.
Inside the Paint - Wednesday
By Chris David
During last year’s postseason, most pundits were predicting and hoping for a Lakers-Cavaliers matchup in the NBA Finals. Unfortunately for them, Los Angeles did its part by winning the Western Conference but Cleveland was unseated in the Eastern Conference by Orlando. The Magic eventually fell to the Lakers in six games but they did earn some respect, or did they?
It’s hard not to like the Cavs and Lakers, considering they boast two of the best players in LeBron James and Kobe Bryant, and they both have an overwhelming amount of size and depth too. Even though those clubs are impressive, it’s hard to ignore how good Orlando and Dallas have been this season too.
The Magic and Mavericks represent the second seeds in the East and West respectively, and both clubs own 1-0 leads in their first round series. Will they go up 2-0 on Wednesday or can Charlotte and Orlando finally beat them?
Let’s take a closer look at the second installments.
**Charlotte at Orlando**
Orlando stopped Charlotte 98-89 in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals last Sunday after nearly blowing a 22-point lead. The Magic came out firing in the opener and wound up building a 59-43 at the break, plus they scored the first six points in the second-half too. While most would’ve expected the Bobcats to fold, they rallied instead with 10 straight points and only gave up 17 points in the third quarter. The game got much closer in the fourth quarter but the Magic continued to make clutch shots and free throws to hold on for the victory.
The Bobcats managed to cover as 10-point road underdogs, despite watching Orlando connect on 13 bombs from 3-point land. Along with the hot shooting, the key to the Magic’s win was the production from point guard Jameer Nelson, who finished with 32 points and six assists.
Stan Van Gundy’s bench also outscored Charlotte 28-16 in Game 1, as J.J. Redick (10) and Mickael Pietrus (14) combined for 24 of the points off the pine.
All-Star Gerald Wallace led Charlotte with 25 points and 17 rebounds in the loss but he didn’t get much help from the rest of his team. The Bobcats’ other offensive weapon, Stephen Jackson, tweaked his knee at the end of the first half in Game 1. He did return for the second half but he wasn’t on the court at the end of the game, when the margin was as tight as five points. He finished with 18 points and nine boards.
Oddsmakers dropped Orlando to a nine-point favorite for Game 2 despite its dominance over Charlotte. The Magic have won 11 of the past 13 games (6-6-1 ATS) against the Bobcats, including four of five this season. And Charlotte’s only victory this year happened when Orlando was on zero days rest with travel.
Does Larry Brown’s team have a legit chance to even up the series? If you’re backing Charlotte in this spot, you’re obviously looking at how the team played in the second-half against Orlando and not the first 24 minutes. Plus, you’re hoping that the Magic don’t shoot lights out from 3-point land again, which is something they’ve done all year. The Bobcats showed a lot of heart but they’re still outclassed in this spot on all levels.
If you’re going to lay the wood with Orlando, you have great reasons to do so. The Magic looked like they were going to post another double-digit home victory in Game 1 early before Dwight Howard got himself into foul trouble. The NBA’s best center finished with nine blocks, yet he only had five points and seven boards. Most would expect him to bounce back offensively, plus it’s hard to fade a team that has gone 35-7 SU and 23-17 ATS at Amway Arena. And it probably isn’t smart to bet on a Charlotte club that has only notched 13 wins on the road this year.
‘Over’ players caught some late big shots by Charlotte in Sunday’s contest and eight made free throws by Orlando down the stretch, which helped the combined 187 points barely slide ‘over’ the closing total of 186 ½. The line hovered between 186 and 187 late, so some ‘under’ players may’ve escaped a tough loss. The ‘over/under’ for Game 3 is sitting at 186.
TNT will provide national coverage of this contest at 7:05 p.m. EDT.
Game 3 in this best-of-seven series is slated for Saturday afternoon from Charlotte while Game 4 is set for Monday.
**San Antonio at Dallas**
If Dirk Nowitzki continues to play like he did in Dallas’ Game 1 win over San Antonio, then this series could be over in four games. The All-Star finished with 36 points on 12-of-14 shooting as the Mavericks stopped the Spurs 100-94 as 4 ½-point favorites in the opener.
The Spurs should be used to Nowitzki’s heroics by now, considering the German product has helped Dallas dominate the head-to-head series recently. During the regular season, the Mavs won three of four, plus they beat the Spurs in five games of last year’s opening round playoff series. During this 10-game span, the Mavs have covered every game they won (8-2 ATS) and that includes five straight at American Airlines Center.
You could make a case that the outcome in Game 1 should’ve been larger considering San Antonio’s performance. The Spurs turned the ball over 17 times, they were beaten on the glass (45-37) and they only earned 12 trips to the free throw line, opposed to 34 attempts from Dallas albeit the Hack-a-Damp (Erick Dampier) came into play in the second half.
Another key factor was the supporting cast for San Antonio, which was missing on Sunday. Manu Ginobili (26 points), Tim Duncan (27 points) and Tony Parker (18 points, 4 assists) kept the club in the game but efforts from George Hill and Richard Jefferson (4) were easily forgettable. Head coach Greg Popovich wasn’t happy at all with that pair and others. "I think we have to have more people step up and play worth a damn," the Spurs coach said. "We had a lot of guys play like dogs."
Even though Dirk went off for the Mavs in Game 1, he did get help from Caron Butler (22 points) and Jason Kidd (13 points, 11 assists). And it should be noted that Shawn Marion (9 points) and Jason Terry (5 points) didn’t play their best basketball either despite the win.
Similar to the Magic-Bobcats point-spread, the number on this game dropped as well. Dallas is now listed as a 3 ½-point favorite for Game 2. Despite the cover on Sunday, the Mavs have burned gamblers with a 12-29 ATS mark at home this season. However, it’s hard to ignore that Dallas is 9-2 both SU and ATS in its last 11.
Most books had a closing total of 194 for Game 1, which resulted in a push. Considering the first quarter saw only 41 points on the scoreboard, ‘over’ players were probably fortunate not to lose. The total for Game 2 is listed at 194 ½ points at most books.
Gamblers expecting San Antonio to make a comeback and the win the best-of-seven battle can grab a series price of plus-220 (Bet $100 to win $220).
Tip-off is scheduled for 9:35 p.m. EDT.
The two teams will head to San Antonio for Game 3 on Friday and Game 4 on Sunday.
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NBA PLAYOFFS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Charlotte (0-1 SU, 1-0 ATS) at Orlando (1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS)
The Magic fought off a late surge by the seventh-seeded Bobcats in Game 1 and now look to go up 2-0 in their best-of-7 Eastern Conference opening round series inside Amway Arena.
Orlando bolted out to a 59-43 halftime lead, but Charlotte closed the gap to five points in the fourth quarter before the Magic finished strong and pulled away for the 98-89 Game 1 victory, but they came up just short as 10-point favorites. Jameer Nelson led the way for Orlando with 32 points and six assists, but All-Star center Dwight Howard finished with just five points and seven rebounds. The Bobcats got a huge game from Gerald Wallace who finished with 25 points and 17 rebounds.
Charlotte has now dropped two straight and three of its last five going back to the regular season, and despite getting the money on Sunday the Bobcats are still just 3-6 ATS in their last nine overall. Meanwhile, Orlando is riding a seven-game winning streak, and it has taken 10 of its last 11 overall (8-2-1 ATS).
Larry Brown’s Bobcats have been awful on the road this season at 13-29 SU, but they have managed to cash in 22 of the 42 games. Orlando is 35-7 at home (24-17-1 ATS), winning eight straight (5-2-1 ATS) and 14 of its last 15 (10-4-1 ATS) inside Amway Arena.
This is the first trip to the postseason for this Charlotte franchise in its sixth season in existence. Meanwhile, the Magic are in the playoffs for the fourth consecutive year. Last spring, they eliminated the Sixers 4-2 (2-4 ATS) in the opening round, then went on to take down the defending-champion Celtics in the conference semifinals (4-3 SU and ATS) and the top-seeded Cavaliers (4-2, 5-1 ATS) to reach the NBA Finals for just the second time in franchise history. However, the dream ended in five games against the Lakers (1-4 ATS).
Orlando has beaten the Bobcats eight times in the last nine tries, and the Magic are 7-4 ATS in the last 11 contests in Florida. However, the road team has now covered in five straight series clashes.
The Bobcats are just 2-4 ATS in their last six overall and 1-3-1 ATS in their last five as an underdog, but they are on pointspread surges of 7-2-1 against winning teams, 23-9-1 against Southeast Division squads and 6-1-1 after a straight-up loss.
It’s all positive ATS trends for the Magic, including 18-8-1 overall, 4-1-1 at home (all as a favorite) 7-1 on Wednesday, 20-8 against Eastern Conference teams, 5-1 after a spread-cover and 7-4 against Southeast Division teams.
Charlotte is on “under” runs of 7-2-1 on the road, 7-0-1 as a road ‘dog, 10-3-1 against winning teams and 6-2-1 against Southeast Division squads. Orlando has topped the total in four of six overall and four of six as a favorite, but it is on “under” streaks of 10-4-2 at home, 10-3-1 as a chalk of five to 10½ points and 9-4-1 against Southeast Division teams.
In this series, the under is 9-3-1 in the last 13 clashes overall and 6-2-1 in the past nine contests in Florida. Game 1 finished right on the 187-point total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
WESTERN CONFERENCE
San Antonio (0-1 SU and ATS) at Dallas (1-0 SU and ATS)
The second-seeded Mavericks look to maintain home-court advantage when they take on the Spurs at the American Airlines Center in Game 2 of this best-of-7 series.
Dallas held off San Antonio 100-94 on Sunday in the series opener, covering as a four-point favorite, the team’s sixth straight win and sixth-straight spread-cover (the latter marking a season-high). The difference came at the free-throw line, where the Mavericks were awarded 34 shots, making 25, while the Spurs got just 14 foul shots, making 12. Dirk Nowitzki led all scorers with 36 points, and midseason addition Caron Butler added 22 for Dallas, which in addition to its six-game winning streak is 9-2 SU and ATS in its last 11 overall.
San Antonio actually outshot the Mavs in Game 1, hitting an even 50 percent from the floor (39 of 78) while Dallas shot 47.3 percent (35 of 74), but the free-throw differential and a minus-8 rebounding margin (45-37) were too much for the Spurs to overcome. Tim Duncan (27 points) and Manu Ginobili (26) shined in a losing effort for San Antonio.
The Spurs remain a solid 29-13 SU (20-22 ATS) on the highway this year, averaging 97.2 ppg on 45.5 percent shooting, and giving up 95.5 ppg on 44.5 percent shooting. The Mavericks are 29-13 SU at home this season, but are a dismal 12-29-1 ATS in those contests, outscoring foes by about a bucket more per game in averaging 101.8 ppg and allowing 99.5 ppg.
These instate rivals also met in the first round last year, with Dallas rolling to a 4-1 series victory while also going 4-1 ATS, averaging 96.4 ppg and allowing 90.4 ppg. The Mavs are 7-1 ATS in the last eight clashes, including 4-1 SU and ATS this year, winning and cashing in the last four meetings in a row. Dallas has also cashed in six straight at home against San Antonio, the host is 7-2 ATS in the last nine matchups, and the SU winner has covered the number in each of the last 15 head-to-head battles.
The Spurs are on ATS slides of 0-5 as a playoff pup and 1-6-1 in first-round games (0-4 last four), though they also sport positive ATS runs of 18-8 overall, 6-2 after either a SU or an ATS loss, 6-3 against winning teams and 12-5 against Western Conference squads.
In addition to cashing in a season-high six consecutive games, the Mavericks are on ATS surges of 5-0 as a favorite, 6-1 in first-round playoff games and 5-1-1 inside the Southwest Division. However, despite their current hot streak, they still shoulder negative pointspread trends of 8-28-1 at home, 17-34-1 as a home favorite and 5-10 as a playoff chalk.
San Antonio is on “under” strings of 6-1-2 on the road, 4-1-1 as an underdog and 6-1-1 as a playoff pup, while Dallas is on “under” surges of 6-1-1 at home and 14-6-1 as a playoff chalk, though the over has hit in six of the Mavs’ last nine against winning teams. Also, the over is 4-1-1 in Dallas’ last six first-round playoff games – all against the Spurs.
Finally, in this rivalry, the under is 3-1-1 in this year’s meetings and 3-1-1 in the last five in Dallas, with Game 1 on Sunday landing right on the 194-point total. In last year’s playoff series, the total cleared the posted price in four of the five contests.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DALLAS