Wednesday's Tip Sheet
By Brad Young
Things are really starting to heat up in the NBA Playoffs. There are three marquee matchups on Wednesday’s schedule, with Brian Edwards tackling the Miami-Atlanta matchup.
Orlando is already painted into a must-win Game 2 scenario after dropping Sunday’s Game 1 to Philadelphia. The Magic squandered a huge second-half lead, and do not want to travel to the City of Brotherly Love down 2-0.
Denver absolutely steamrolled New Orleans in its opener, and is looking to go up on the Hornets two games before this series shifts to the Big Easy. The most intriguing matchup in this series is the battle between the point guards, with New Orleans’ Chris Paul going against Denver’s Chauncey Billups. These two players combined for 57 points and 19 assists in Sunday’s opener.
Now let’s take a closer look at the Philadelphia-Orlando and New Orleans-Denver contests.
**76ers (6) at Magic (3)**
-Caesars Palace installed Orlando as a 10-point home ‘chalk’ for Wednesday’s Game 2, with the total set at 193 ½. NBA-TV will provide coverage of this contest beginning at 7:05 p.m. ET. The Magic are currently a $4.50 favorite (bet $450 to win $100) to advance to the second round, while the Sixers are a $3.25 underdog (bet $100 to win $325).
-Philadelphia (42-41 straight up, 37-45 against the spread) took Sunday’s Game 1 against Orlando (59-24 SU, 49-33 ATS) as a 9 ½-point road underdog, 100-98. The combined 198 points eclipsed the 192-point closing total. The Magic had won the previous four meetings with the Sixers SU and ATS.
-Philadelphia prevailed when Andre Iguodala nailed a jumper with just 2.2 seconds remaining. The Sixers rallied from an 18-point deficit by outscoring Orlando in the fourth quarter, 35-19. Philadelphia shot a robust 74 percent in the fourth quarter, including 5-of-7 from 3-point land. Iguodala led the Sixers with 20 points, eight rebounds and eight assists.
-Philadelphia finished the contest by shooting 51 percent (41-of-80) from the field, and 58 percent (7-of-12) from behind the arc. However, the Sixers were a dismal 55 percent (11-of-20) from the free-throw line. Philadelphia also enjoyed a slight rebounding advantage, 37-35.
-Orlando’s Dwight Howard led all scorers with 31 points and 16 rebounds, while guard Rafer Alston added 15 and five assists. Courtney Lee contributed 18 points, while Rashard Lewis added 15 in the setback. The Magic shot 49 percent (37-of-76) from the field, and 28 percent (5-of-18) from 3-point land.
-That was the biggest lead that Orlando squandered all season.
-Philadelphia entered the postseason by dropping six of its last seven games. The Sixers beat Detroit last year in the first game of the playoffs before eventually losing the series in six games.
-Philadelphia is now 18-24 SU and 19-23 ATS road record, with the ‘over’ going 25-16. The Sixers have been dropping those endeavors by an average score of 101-97.
-Orlando is 32-10 SU and 23-19 ATS on its home court, with the ‘under’ going 26-15. The Magic have been winning their home games by an average score of 101-92.
-This marks Orlando’s third season of 55 wins or more during the regular season. The two previous squads advanced to at least the conference finals.
-Philadelphia guard Andre Miller (hand) is ‘probable’ against the Magic. Orlando center Dwight Howard (eye) and forward Hidayet Turkoglu (ankle) are ‘probable’ versus the Sixers.
**Hornets (7) at Nuggets (2)**
-Caesars Palace opened Denver as a 5 ½-point home favorite over New Orleans, with the total listed at 196. TNT starts its coverage of this contest at 10:35 p.m. ET. The Nuggets are now a $3.60 moneyline ‘chalk’ to win this series, while the Hornets are the $2.80 underdog.
-Denver (55-28 SU, 46-36 ATS) throttled New Orleans (49-34 SU, 36-46 ATS) in Sunday’s Game 1 as a six-point home favorite, 113-84. The combined 197 points went ‘over’ the 195-point closing total, ending back-to-back ‘under’ outings in this series.
-Point guard Chauncey Billups led the charge with 36 points by hitting a career-best eight 3-pointers. That marked the Nuggets’ second-biggest victory in their postseason history. J.R. Smith stepped up with 19 points, while center Nene added 12 and 14 rebounds.
-Denver dominated New Orleans in rebounding, 49-35, while connecting at a 51-percent clip (38-of-75) from the field and 53 percent (11-of-21) from behind the arc. This is the Nuggets’ first home-court advantage in a playoff series in 21 years.
-Denver put the game away by going on a 21-0 run that spanned the end of the third quarter and the beginning of the fourth. The Nuggets bench outscored the Hornets’ bench, 41-24.
-New Orleans shot just 37 percent (29-of-78) from the field, and 43 percent (9-of- 21) from 3-point land. Point guard Chris Paul stepped up with 21 points and 11 assists, while forward Peja Stojakovic contributed 13.
-The Hornets are 21-21 SU and 17-25 ATS away from home, dropping those affairs by an average score of 97-95.
-Denver sports a solid 34-8 SU and 25-16 ATS home ledger, with the ‘over’ going 23-18. The Nuggets have been winning their home endeavors by an average score of 108-100.
-New Orleans center Tyson Chandler (ankle) is ‘probable’ against the Jazz.
vegasinsider.com.
Heat at Hawks, Game 2
By Brian Edwards
ATLANTA - Philips Arena is still a relative newcomer to this playoff thing. With that said, the venue knows what’s up this time of year.
If you’ve never visited Philips, it is undoubtedly one of the premier buildings in the NBA. However, few would know it because the Hawks and Thrashers have been such a joke since the arena opened in 1999.
The Thrashers remain a laughingstock in the NHL, but things started to turn around for the Hawks last season. That’s when they won all three home playoff games against the top-seeded Celtics, who went on to win the NBA title but not before being forced to a seventh game in the opening-round series against Atlanta.
Mike Woodson’s team picked up where it left off last year by destroying Miami by a 90-64 count Sunday night. Atlanta easily took the money as a five-point favorite, while the 154 points fell way ‘under’ the 186 ½-point total.
Josh Smith set the tone with 17 first-half points, including several high-flying dunks that sent the crowd into an early frenzy. Smith finished with 23 points, 10 rebounds, three steals and a pair of assists. Most importantly, other than a couple of ill-advised attempts in the first quarter, he didn’t settle for jumpers and relentlessly attacked the basket, as evidenced by his 9-for-14 shooting numbers from the field.
Joe Johnson had 15 points and Mike Bibby dished out nine assists. Al Horford added 14 points and nine rebounds, while Zaza Pachulia came off the bench to produce a double-double with 10 points and 10 boards.
Dwyane Wade opened the game by driving baseline for an easy dunk, but his trips into the paint without resistance were few and far between. He never got into a consistent rhythm, finishing with 19 points, five rebounds, five assists and three steals. However, Wade committed eight turnovers, as he was constantly harassed by multiple defenders when he tried to get to the rim off the dribble.
These teams have now met five times this year. We’ll throw out last week’s 81-79 win by Atlanta because Wade and Udonis Haslem didn’t dress out, while Woodson only allowed his regulars to play limited minutes. Therefore, we’re left with four previous encounters to decipher.
Wade, who led the NBA in scoring at a 30.0 points per game clip, went off for 35 points in Miami’s lone win over the Hawks this season in South Florida. In the three other games (two in Atlanta, one in Miami), Wade has settled for following scoring outputs: 21, 21 and 19. Alas, it’s evident that the Hawks are doing something right in defending him. It’s certainly a team effort, but Johnson should get much of the credit.
No longer forced to carry most of the scoring load thanks to acquisitions like Bibby, Horford and “Flip” Murray, Johnson can now save some of his energy for the defensive end. Just like he is as an overall player, Johnson is one of the NBA’s most underrated defenders.
What adjustments will the Heat make for Game 2? How can Wade get free for easier looks? It’s not really about Wade because the attention is going to stay on him until another teammate steps up and knocks down some shots.
VegasInsider.com handicapper Kevin Rogers thinks Miami’s low-post players are going to have to come through. “It’s obvious Wade can’t carry the load against a team that has four different guys that score at any given time,” Rogers said. “Miami needs more production out of Udonis Haslem and Jermaine O’Neal, who took only eight shots and combined for just 11 points in Game 1. The Heat also need to keep Atlanta off the free-throw line. The Hawks pulled away in the second quarter when they got in the bonus with nearly eight minutes left.”
For Game 2, Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Atlanta (48-35 straight up, 44-38-1 against the spread) as a 4 ½-point favorite with a total of 184. As of late Tuesday afternoon, most spots had the Hawks as five-point ‘chalk’ with the total unchanged. Miami (43-40 SU, 40-41-2 ATS) is plus-180 on the money line (risk $100 to win $180).
The adjusted series price per LVSC is Atlanta minus-270 with Miami available at plus-210 on the comeback (risk $100 to win $210).
The ‘under’ has cashed in five straight head-to-head meetings between these clubs.
Game 2 for Wednesday is scheduled to tip at 8:05 p.m. Eastern on TNT.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
--Atlanta is 32-10 SU and 23-18-1 ATS at home this season. Meanwhile, the Heat are 15-27 SU and 20-21-1 ATS on the road.
--The ‘over’ is 45-37-1 overall for Miami, 21-21 in its road assignments.
--The ‘under’ is 43-38-2 overall for Atlanta, 24-18 in its home games.
--Boston has just three healthy “bigs” since Leon Powe is now out for the rest of the playoffs after injuring his knee in Monday’s 118-115 Game 2 win over Chicago.
--A few months back when Boston was considering signing Stephon Marbury, I spent a considerable amount if time on the Power Hours asking the question: “Why?” Why on earth would any playoff contender want to sign a me-first player like Marbury who is a high-volume shooter to serve as a back-up point guard? Now I’m not saying his signing is the reason Boston might be in trouble in its first-round series against the Bulls, but his presence certainly isn’t a positive. If Doc Rivers gives Eddie House all of Marbury’s minutes, isn’t there a better chance that House will catch fire thanks to more minutes and more looks for one of the league’s streakiest 3-point shooters? In 10 minutes of playing time during Game 2, Marbury was 1-for-4 from the field for two points to go with two fouls and one turnover. Since joining the Celtics, Marbury has the following shooting percentages: 34.2% from the field, 24.0% from 3-point land and 46.2% from the charity stripe. And, lest we forget, no team that Marbury has been a part of has EVER won a playoff series.
vegasinsider.com
PHILADELPHIA (42 - 41) at ORLANDO (59 - 24)
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.
ORLANDO is 50-33 ATS (+13.7 Units) in all games this season.
ORLANDO is 38-29 ATS (+6.1 Units) as a favorite this season.
ORLANDO is 50-36 ATS (+10.4 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
ORLANDO is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) when playing with 2 days rest over the last 2 seasons.
ORLANDO is 21-6 ATS (+14.4 Units) revenging a home loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
ORLANDO is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
ORLANDO is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) off a upset loss as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
ORLANDO is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 82-57 ATS (+19.3 Units) when playing with 2 days rest since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
ORLANDO is 6-5 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
ORLANDO is 8-3 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
7 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI (43 - 40) at ATLANTA (48 - 35)
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 73-90 ATS (-26.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 45-36 ATS (+5.4 Units) in all games this season.
ATLANTA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games after allowing 85 points or less this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 8-5 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 7-6 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
10 of 13 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS (49 - 34) at DENVER (55 - 28)
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 36-46 ATS (-14.6 Units) in all games this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 7-15 ATS (-9.5 Units) as an underdog this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 22-40 ATS (-22.0 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points since 1996.
NEW ORLEANS is 16-25 ATS (-11.5 Units) in road games this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 19-28 ATS (-11.8 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 12-25 ATS (-15.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 7-15 ATS (-9.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
DENVER is 46-36 ATS (+6.4 Units) in all games this season.
DENVER is 32-23 ATS (+6.7 Units) as a favorite this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 61-39 ATS (+18.1 Units) when playing with 2 days rest since 1996.
NEW ORLEANS is 64-44 ATS (+15.6 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 37-21 ATS (+13.9 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) after 3 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 7-5 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 6-6 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
6 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
Philadelphia at Orlando
Philadelphia:
13-5 Over in road games 2nd half of season
29-14 Over off BB wins by 6pts or less
Orlando:
41-16 ATS off SU loss
8-1 Over off home loss
Miami at Atlanta
Miami:
1-5 ATS revenging loss of 20+ points
2-9 ATS revenging loss where they scored 75pts or less
Atlanta:
5-1 ATS off DD division win
10-3 ATS if both teams scored 90pts or less last game
New Orleans at Denver
New Orleans:
11-1 ATS off road loss by 20+ points
16-4 ATS off 3 or more losses
Denver:
2-8 ATS in 1st Rd of Playoffs
8-2 Under in 1st Rd of Playoffs
Game of the day: Miami Heat at Atlanta Hawks
By Ted Sevransky
Miami Heat at Atlanta Hawks (-5, 184)
Wade a Minute
It’s a good thing for Dwyane Wade that the deadline for MVP ballots was last week. Wade’s playoff opener wasn’t pretty. He was held eleven points below his season average and turned the ball over eight times.
Miami won only one of the three meetings this year with Wade in the lineup, a game that Wade made 13-19 from the floor, pouring in 35 points.
In Miami’s two losses against the Hawks with Wade in the lineup, the Heat superstar was held to 21 points each time. The Heat will need a special performance from Wade here if they are going to improve on their Game 1 result.
Free Throw Woes
Atlanta’s success against the Miami star has everything to do with its ability to keep Wade off the free throw line. In five games against the Hawks this year, Wade has averaged just five free throw attempts, and he took only four foul shots in Game 1. Against the rest of the league, Wade averaged nearly 10 free throw attempts per game.
Atlanta got to the charity stripe 20 times in the first game of this series while Miami, as a team, got only a dozen attempts. That ratio won’t cut it in postseason basketball.
Balance vs. Imbalance
All five Atlanta starters scored double digits in 90-64 Game 1 victory. That marked the third time in Atlanta’s last eight playoff games - dating back to last year’s series against Boston - that we’ve seen Joe Johnson, Mike Bibby, Josh Smith, Marvin Williams and Al Horford all score at least 10 points.
All five Atlanta starters averaged at least 11.5 points per game in the regular season, with only Joe Johnson scoring more than 15 points per game. Key reserve Flip Murray also averaged double figures in the regular season.
Miami had five players average double figures during the regular season. But four of the five guys were held to 13 points per game or less, while D-Wade poured in more than 30 points a game. This is a classic case of a team with a superstar capable of carrying the squad versus a team with extraordinary balance, but no superstar.
Frontcourt Mismatch?
At one point in his career, Heat center Jermaine O’Neal was one of the most dominant low post players in the NBA. Miami’s mid-season acquisition was absolutely invisible in Game 1: five points, two rebounds, three turnovers.
Overall, the Hawks won the rebounding battle 50-35 in the opening game of the series. Miami’s Udonis Haslem and Joel Anthony were outclassed by Al Horford, Joe Smith and Zaza Pachulia. For the Heat to have a chance at the upset on Wednesday, they’ll need a significant improvement in their low post production.
Under Thunder
All five matchups between the Hawks and Heat this year have gone Under the total. None of the five games produced more than 174 points.
In four of the five meetings, at least one team was held to less than 80, and the highest scoring output for either team was the 95 points Miami hung on Atlanta at home back in January.
NBA Today
SCOREBOARD
Wednesday, April 22
Philadelphia at Orlando (7 p.m. EDT). The 76ers won Game 1 on a late jumper by Andre Iguodala and will again try to surprise the third-seeded Magic on their home court.
STARS
Tuesday
— LeBron James, Cavaliers, had 29 points, 13 rebounds, and six assists as Cleveland held off Detroit’s rally for a 92-84 victory and a 2-0 lead in the best-of-seven series.
— Kobe Bryant, Lakers, scored 26 points as Los Angeles beat Utah 119-109 to take a 2-0 lead in the series.
— Brandon Roy, Trail Blazers, scored 42 points to help Portland beat Houston 107-103 and even their playoff series at a game apiece.
— Deron Williams, Jazz, scored a career playoff-high 35 points but it wasn’t enough to help Utah overcome the Lakers.
GETTING DEFENSIVE
Orlando Magic center Dwight Howard became the youngest player to win the NBA’s defensive player of the year award. The 23-year-old was only the fifth player to lead the league in blocks and rebounds in the same season, a goal he set in training camp.
END GAME
Houston Rockets center Dikembe Mutombo said his lengthy career is finished after a knee injury knocked him out of the Rockets’ playoff game Tuesday night against the Trail Blazers. The 18-year NBA veteran appeared to get tangled with Portland center Greg Oden and came down hard on his left leg late in the first quarter of Game 2.
SIDELINED
Boston Celtics forward Leon Powe is out for the rest of the season with a torn knee ligament. The Celtics are already without Kevin Garnett as they try to defend their unprecedented 17th NBA title.
SIGHTINGS
The Lakers always draw a celebrity crowd. Jack Nicholson celebrated his 72nd birthday, standing to acknowledge the cheering Staples Center crowd during Game 2 against Utah on Tuesday night. Also attending were Dustin Hoffman, Justin Timberlake (who enveloped girlfriend Jessica Biel in a long kiss and embrace when the arena’s kiss cam landed on them), Andy Garcia, Dyan Cannon, George Lopez and PGA golfer Anthony Kim, figure skater Michelle Kwan, Golden State Warriors player Corey Maggette and California first lady Maria Shriver.
STATS
Portland is 19-1 when Game 2 is played in Portland. … Lakers coach Phil Jackson won his 195th career playoff game—the most all-time.
SPEAKING
“The first seven quarters of Game 1 and Game 2 were tremendous basketball. We’re not going to let tonight’s fourth quarter take away from what we’ve done so far.”—Cavaliers star LeBron James said after Cleveland let a 29-point lead slip to seven in the fourth quarter before holding off Detroit.
NBA Playoffs
Orlando lost four of last five games; they blew 18-point lead in Game 1 loss to 76ers-- six of its last eight games stayed under total. 76ers lost six of last eight games, their last seven games went over the total. Marshall was +18, Ratliff +17 in Game 1, as veteran Philly subs fueled comeback. There was total of only seven turnovers in Game 1 (Phil 4, Orl 3).
Miami lost four of five to Atlanta this season, dropping games here by 8-2-26 points; all five series games stayed under total, with an average total of 163.6. Hawks won five of last six games. Miami covered four of last six as the underdog-- they shot 36.6% from floor in Game 1, 4-23 from arc, and were down 20 points at halftime, 59-39.
Denver won 15 of last 17 games, covered six of last eight as a favorite. Six of its last seven games went over the total. New Orleans lost seven of its last nine games- they're 5-11 against spread in last 16 games as an underdog. Billups was 8-9 from arc in Game 1, as Nuggets shot 51% on night, winning despite forcing only three Hornet (37% FG) turnovers.
PHILADELPHIA vs. ORLANDO
Philadelphia is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Orlando
Philadelphia is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Orlando
Orlando is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
Orlando is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games
MIAMI vs. ATLANTA
Miami is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Miami is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Atlanta is 6-13-1 ATS in its last 20 games when playing Miami
Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Miami
NEW ORLEANS vs. DENVER
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games when playing Denver
New Orleans is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Denver is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing at home against New Orleans
Denver is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against New Orleans
Tips and Trends
New Orleans Hornets at Denver Nuggets
Hornets: Hornets coach Byron Scott suggested Dahntay Jones' heavy contact on Chris Paul crossed the line. "I was looking at the tape, there were some cheap shots that I thought he took in there," Scott said. "I'm smart enough to realize if we both get ejected, or something like that, he's done his job," said Chris Paul. "I'm more focused about what we're doing rather than what he's doing. Although the Nuggets' swarming defensive disrupted the Hornets' pick-and-roll offense, Paul said it was more about them missing open looks than anything the Nuggets did. We're going to have to be aggressive, try to get to the line and get some easy baskets."
The Hornets are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games as a road underdog.
The Under is 14-6 in the Hornets' last 20 overall.
Key Injuries - NONE
PROJECTED SCORE: 93
Nuggets (-5.5, O/U 196.5): Getting under the skin of the Hornets is all part of the plan for the Nuggets, who were determined to set an aggressive defensive tone for the series. "I'm not trying to be annoying, I'm just trying to put pressure on (Paul) and play hard. People don't like it when you play hard, people don't like it when you're physical," said Dahntay Jones. "The series is going to be a tough, long, long series and being physical is something that we've got to pride ourselves on," Chauncey Billups said. "We're going to bring the same intensity and play as hard," Jones said. "Hopefully it will turn out the same way."
The Nuggets are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 Conference Quarterfinals games.
The Under is 18-4 in the Nuggets' last 22 Conference Quarterfinals games.
Key Injuries - C Nene (eye) is PROBABLE.
PROJECTED SCORE: 99 (UNDER - Total Play of the Day)
NBA PLAYOFF OVERS HAVE BEEN A SLAM DUNK
by Marco D'Angelo
What's up with the NBA Playoffs thus far. Thru the first 3 days of action there has been 10 games played. In those 10 games 9 of them have gone OVER the Total. That is just unreal as playoff time usually means low scoring defensive games. Is Vegas just putting up soft totals or is Vegas out smarting the wise guys?
Every thing that Vegas does is a reaction to an action. If the favorites keep covering Vegas will pump the lines up to balance the books. If the dogs are covering Vegas starts putting up short numbers to balance the books.Totals however are a totally different animal as most squares always bet the OVER.
It's a fact put 100 people in a room and tell them to pick Over or Under and the majority will always be on the Over as it's the gambler's mentality to bet Over and here's why?
You always have hope when you bet the Over as turnovers, quick scores, and a bevy of 3 pointers or overtime all give the Over Bettors hope. If you bet Under you may have a losing bet by the start of the 4th quarter. Also who wants to watch a game and root for no scoring. Vegas knows these facts and usually has the totals a little higher in anticipation of all the Over Money that will be coming in.
I think Vegas knows that the average players are smarter than they use to be. There is so much information available to the average bettor these days that the squares just aren't as square as they use to be.
With information available such as our own Sports Betting Preview Show the average bettor now knows that when you bet an UNDER who have a Winning Bet all the way until the game finally goes over the total.
So what does all this mean when Vegas knows what you know they will adjust to take your advantage away. Remember back in the day when Monday Night Football was new and Home Dogs was as close to money in the bank as there was well what happened everyone started talking about it and Vegas started shaving the lines and soon the Home Dog on Monday Night Football was a 50/50 proposition.
Vegas has over adjusted the totals as the sharps have been on the Unders and been getting beat. Also note that most of the first 10 games have been blowouts which will have the game go over more often because the teams quit playing hard defense when the games get out of hand. Tighter games will bring the totals back down.
Most years everything has a way of ending between 46-54% for over/unders or dogs & favorites. So with a 9-1 start on the Overs don't expect the overs to hold as Vegas will start tweaking the totals to adjust which means there will be a bevy of unders to bring the average back to that 46-54% range.
Also note that the deeper we go into the playoffs teams will make adjustments as well which will bring the scoring down. So just like a stock broker who says to buy a stock because it's under priced I'm saying buy the unders over the next 10 days because they will be over priced.