Game Of The Day: Jazz at Nuggets
By Teddy Covers
Early line move
The early wise guy money has come in on the home favorite, pushing the opening line up from -6.5 to -7. The total has remained unchanged from the opener, sitting at 215.
Defenseless Denver
Denver did not play much defense down the stretch of the regular season, relying on forcing turnovers as opposed to forcing bad shots. Against Utah, the Nuggets defensive weaknesses have been exploited in each of the first four games of this series.
Utah shot 54 percent from inside the arc in the first three games of this series. They followed that up with a 61 percent shooting performance from two point range in their Game 4 blowout over the Nuggets.
And the Nuggets have been sending the Jazz to the free throw line, unable to avoid fouls. Utah has shot a whopping 152 free throw attempts – 38 per game – while taking a 3-1 series lead.
Denver’s reliance on creating turnovers defensively has failed miserably in this series. With Jazz All-Star guard Deron Williams controlling the flow of the offense, the Jazz had 51 assists and only 22 turnovers in the last two games.
Chemistry concerns
The Nuggets are a team loaded with strong personalities and not the most mature team in the league. An anonymous Denver source told reporters, “We don’t have Tim Duncan here.”
Since George Karl was forced to take a leave of absence to treat his bout with cancer, things have gotten appreciably worse. Denver went 41-20 with Karl on the bench, but they are just 8-10 SU since the last game Karl coached back in mid-March.
The Nuggets have been taking potshots at one another, both on and off the court. TV cameras caught a heated exchange between Carmelo Anthony and Chris Anderson on the bench in Game 4 after Birdman threw up an ill-advised 20 footer that missed badly, contributing to the Jazz’s big first half run.
Shooting guard J.R. Smith probably didn’t help matters with his post game response on Twitter, “You play selfish you lose selfish that’s all I’m saying about the game!”
Denver’s chemistry issues have been on full display on the offensive end of the court as well. The Nuggets spent the last two games playing one-on-one basketball, notching only 12 assists in Game 3, then following that up with a 13 assist performance in Game 4. During the regular season, Denver averaged 21 assists per game.
All-Star forward Carmelo Anthony did everything but point fingers in his comments to reporters following the Game 4 defeat.
“The energy and intensity is not there at times…. I’m trying to do everything I can in my power to beat the Jazz, but at the end of the day I need some help,” he said. “I’m not sitting here pointing fingers at anybody, but as a unit we’ve got to do it together.”
Backs against the wall
Denver has a miserable track record when facing elimination in the postseason. Last year, the Nuggets rolled through their first two playoff series, beating New Orleans 4-1 and Dallas 4-1.
That momentum did not carry over to their next series against the Lakers. Returning home after a tough Game 5 loss in L.A., facing a 3-2 series deficit, Denver was blown out right here at the Pepsi Center as a 5.5-point favorite, losing 119-92.
It was a similar story in 2008, when the Nuggets got swept by the Lakers in the first round, failing to win or cover the spread at home in either Game 3 or Game 4.
The Nuggets failed to win or cover either of their home games in the first round against San Antonio in 2007. Facing elimination in Game 5, Denver lost by 15 points, another pointspread failure. Their Game 1 win was their only win of the entire series.
In 2006, Denver got bombed by the Los Angeles Clippers in their elimination game, an 18-point blowout defeat. Denver lost that series 4-1 as well. The Nuggets also lost by double digits in Game 5 of their 4-1 series defeat against San Antonio in 2005, another pointspread failure in a closeout contest.
Clearly, in the past this team has struggled repeatedly stepping up for their biggest must-win game of the entire season.
Jazz having fun
As the Nuggets have been imploding, the Jazz have been coming alive.
“It's fun to watch what they're trying to accomplish,” coach Jerry Sloan told the media. “If we can run our offense and execute it, and set screens to help each other, I think we can score every time - if we can make the shot.”
Utah forward Carlos Boozer echoed his coach’s sentiments in his comments to the press.
“We execute. We're doing a good job of spacing. We've got shooters at a couple of different positions,” Boozer said.
No new injuries
Utah starters Andrei Kirilenko and Mehmet Okur are still sitting on the sidelines in street clothes. Okur is out for the remainder of the playoffs, while Kirilenko is not expected back in the lineup until Game 6 (if necessary) at the earliest.
Denver has some significant injury concerns of their own, but their injured players are still suiting up. Forward Kenyon Martin is a shell of his former self right now, playing on a knee that will require surgery as soon as the season is through. Martin has reached double digits in the scoring column only twice in seven games since returning to the floor.
Nuggets point guard Chauncey Billups appears to be wearing down physically as well. Billups shooting numbers are way down, hitting under 38 percent of his shots from the floor since March 1. “Mr. Big Shot” has been ice cold from three point range, connecting at a 28 percent clip over the last two months.
NBA PLAYOFFS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Milwaukee (2-2 SU and ATS) at Atlanta (2-2 SU and ATS)
The short-handed Bucks, seeded sixth in the East but without star center Andrew Bogut, aim to keep the pressure on the third-seeded Hawks as this best-of-7 first-round series returns to Philips Arena.
After dropping Games 1 and 2 at Atlanta – losing both by 10 points – Milwaukee rebounded with a pair SU and ATS victories in Games 3 and 4 on its home floor. The Bucks rolled to a 107-89 as a one-point favorite Saturday, then claimed a 111-104 win as a two-point underdog Monday. Brandon Jennings (23 points), John Salmons (22) and Carlos Delfino (22) paved the way in Game 4, as Milwaukee shot a stout 55.1 percent (38 of 69).
Atlanta got a game-high 29 points and nine assists from Joe Johnson in Monday’s defeat, and the Hawks shot a respectable 47.5 percent, but it wasn’t enough to keep the Bucks from tying the series. Although Atlanta hit 18 of 21 free throws (85.7 percent), it sent Milwaukee to the line 32 times, with the Bucks knocking down 28 (87.5 percent).
The Bucks are 18-25 SU on the road this year – getting outscored by less than half a point per game on average (95.5-95.1) – but they are 28-14-1 ATS in those contests (despite failing to cover in Games 1 and 2 in Atlanta). The Hawks are 36-7 SU (27-16 ATS) at Philips Arena, outscoring visitors by nearly nine points per game (104.3-95.7).
Atlanta is 5-3 SU and ATS in the last eight meetings with Milwaukee, with the losses in Games 3 and 4 coming after a four-game ATS run by the Hawks in this rivalry. The chalk is on a 12-4-1 ATS tear (4-1 ATS last five), and the SU winner is 15-3-1 ATS in the last 19 clashes (including 4-0 this series, with the home team winning and cashing in all four contests).
Also, in Atlanta’s last 22 playoff contests, the SU winner is a torrid 21-0-1 ATS, and the SU winner is 10-0-1 ATS in Milwaukee’s last 11 overall.
Despite their strong efforts in Games 3 and 4, the Bucks are still on a 3-8-1 ATS purge in first-round playoff games (2-4 last six) and are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 as a postseason pup. That said, they led the NBA at the betting window in the regular season (52-28-2 ATS) and remain on positive pointspread streaks of 36-14-2 overall, 20-6-1 on the highway, 12-3 as a road pup, 16-5-1 after a day off and 38-15-2 after a spread-cover.
The Hawks remain on pointspread sprees of 5-2 overall, 7-2 at home (all as a favorite, 9-4 against the Central Division, 9-3 against winning teams and 5-1 laying points, though Atlanta has also dropped four straight ATS decisions following a SU loss and is in a 1-4 ATS rut after a non-cover.
Monday’s game sailed over the posted price of 189, and the total has now gone high in 11 of the last 12 meetings overall in this rivalry and five of the last six in Atlanta.
In addition, the Bucks are on a plethora of “over” sprees, including 7-2 overall, 10-1 against winning teams, 15-4-2 in first-round playoff games (7-1 last eight) and 10-1 against winning teams. Meanwhile, Atlanta is on “over” runs of 6-2 overall, 7-1 against winning teams and 21-7 following a non-cover.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ATLANTA and OVER
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Utah (3-1 SU and ATS) at Denver (1-3 SU and ATS)
The fifth-seeded Jazz look to close out the No. 4 seed Nuggets when the two Northwest Division rivals square off inside the Pepsi Center for Game 5 of this best-of-7 Western Conference first-round matchup.
After stealing Game 2 in Denver, Utah returned to Salt Lake City and swept Games 3 and 4, capped by Sunday’s 117-106 rout as a 2½-point favorite. The Jazz shot 53.2 percent from the floor and got 31 points and 13 rebounds from Carlos Boozer, plus 24 points and 13 assists from Deron Williams and 21 points from C.J. Miles. Denver All-Star Carmelo Anthony tallied 39 points and 11 rebounds, but Anthony got little help from his teammates.
Despite a three-point win in Denver in Game 2, Utah remains just 22-21 (24-17-1 ATS) on the road this season, including 5-5 (SU and ATS) in its last 10. Meanwhile, the Nuggets are 35-8 inside the Pepsi Center, but a mediocre 21-21-1 ATS. Denver has won 12 of its last 15 at home (8-7 ATS).
The Jazz were eliminated in the first round of the playoffs a season ago by the Lakers in five games (3-2 ATS). They’re in the postseason for the fourth consecutive year, but have lost four of their last six first-round series.
The Lakers also took out the Nuggets on their way to the NBA title, topping Denver in six games (3-3 ATS) in the Western Conference Finals. Prior to meeting Los Angeles, the Nuggets had won eight of 10 playoff contests in the first two rounds – eliminating New Orleans and Dallas – while going 10-0 ATS. This is Denver’s sixth consecutive playoff appearance after a nine-year drought from 1995-2003.
The season series is tied 4-4 (3-3-2 ATS), and while Utah is 3-1-2 ATS in the last six clashes, the Jazz are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last six visits to Denver. The chalk is riding a 27-12-3 ATS run in the last 42 meetings (3-1 ATS in this playoff series).
Utah is on ATS slides of 1-5 as an underdog and 3-7 on the road against teams with winning home records, but the Jazz are also on positive ATS runs of 34-13-3 overall, 10-3 on Wednesday, 7-1-2 after two days off and 4-1 in first-round playoff games. The Nuggets are on ATS skids of 1-4 overall, 1-5 against winning teams, 4-9 as a favorite and 3-7 after a straight-up loss, but they are on pointspread upticks of 12-5-1 on Wednesday, 8-3 as a playoff favorite, 9-1 at home against teams with winning home records and 5-2-1 after two days off.
The Jazz have stayed below the posted total in six of eight after a straight-up win and three of four on Wednesday, but they’re on “over” runs of 34-16-1 as a road underdog, 5-0 after two days off, 21-6 against Northwest Division teams and 7-3 as a playoff underdog. Denver is on a plethora of “over” streaks, including 5-1 overall, 10-4 on Wednesday, 7-2 at home against teams with a winning road record, 7-3 against Northwest Division teams and 5-1 against winning teams.
In this rivalry, the “over” has cashed in five of the last six meetings overall, five straight in the Mile High City and three of four in this playoff series.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Inside the Paint - Wednesday
By Chris David
Are the Nuggets done? Can anybody win on the road in the Hawks-Bucks series? We’re going to find out answers to those questions tonight when Atlanta hosts Milwaukee from Philips Arena and Denver welcomes Utah to the Pepsi Center in a pair of Game 5 battles on Wednesday.
Let’s take a closer look at the two matchups!
Milwaukee (48-38 SU, 55-30 ATS) at Atlanta (55-31 SU, 49-36 ATS)
Even though Atlanta opened up a 2-0 lead in its first round series against Milwaukee, a lot of pundits didn’t believe the best-of-seven series was over and they were right. The Hawks have been one of the most inconsistent road teams (19-24 SU, 22-20 ATS) this season and it showed in their two recent visits to the Bradley Center.
The Bucks evened up their quarterfinal matchup with the Hawks by notching back-to-back home victories, including a 111-104 win in Game 4 as two point underdogs on Monday. Scott Skiles’ team couldn’t buy a shot in their first two games played in Georgia, finishing with 92 and 86 points respectively however that changed in Wisconsin. Milwaukee jumped the century mark in both contests behind 51 and 55 percent shooting from the field, and they drilled 17 bombs from 3-point land in the wins but only 10 treys in the losses.
Most sportsbooks opened Atlanta as a nine-point favorite for Game 5 and some gamblers could be scratching their heads but the numbers on Game 1 (-8.5) and Game 2 (-7.5) were in the same range. Plus, the Hawks covered both of those contests with 10-point wins (102-92, 96-86).
Gamblers looking to back the Bucks on the series in what’s now become a best-of-three wager can do so at a healthy price of plus-450 (Bet $100 to win $450). Does Milwaukee have a legit chance to pull off the upset and rally from a 0-2 hole?
VegasInsider.com handicapper Brian Edwards doesn’t believe so. He explained, “I don’t think Atlanta is in trouble – at least not in this series. This team just has to do a better job of defending and it will in Game 5, where I see the Hawks bouncing back and most likely covering for a third time at home in the first round. And really, we probably shouldn’t be surprised by a pair of mediocre road performances from the Hawks, who can beat anybody at home and can lose to anybody when they don’t ‘bring it’ on the road. Giving up 111 points just isn’t going to cut it, especially at this time of the year. I still see the Hawks winning this series in six games, but Monday’s loss will probably take its toll in the next series against Orlando.”
Along with the home team dominating through the first four games, the total has seen some serious trends too. The ‘over’ has gone 3-1 in this series and is now on an 11-1 run in the last 12 head-to-head battles between the Hawks and Bucks. The books finally adjusted for Game 5, pushing the ‘over/under’ up to 192. The pace hasn’t been torrid so far, yet the two clubs are making shots from 3-point land and free throws, both keys to winning ‘over’ tickets.
Tip-off is set for 8:05 p.m. EDT, with TNT providing national coverage.
Game 6 is set for Friday from the Bradley Center.
All three of the other first round matchups in the Eastern Conference have been decided. The winner of this series will meet Orlando in the conference semifinals.
Utah (56-30 SU, 53-31 ATS) at Denver (54-32 SU, 35-46 ATS)
It’s often been said in handicapping circles that you should never bet against a team that has won three or more in a row and you should never bet on a club that dropped three straight or more. If you follow those rules, then playing on Denver in Game 5 as a seven-point home favorite against Utah would be deemed dangerous.
After taking Game 1 on Apr. 17 with an impressive 126-113 victory over the Jazz at home, the Nuggets have all but collapsed in the next three encounters, especially the last two. Utah has taken advantage of the mistakes and its opened up a commanding 3-1 lead after beating Denver 117-106 in Game 4 on Sunday as a two-point favorite from Salt Lake City.
The setback for Denver showed how much of a one-man show the team has become and All-Star Carmelo Anthony made his teammates know it. “I'm trying, I'm trying to beat them. I'm trying to do everything I can in my power to beat the Jazz," Anthony said after the loss. “But, at the end of the day, I need some help. I'm not sitting here pointing fingers or nothing. As a unit, we've got to do this together. I can't do this by myself.”
Anthony is averaging 34.5 PPG in the first four games and he eclipsed that number on Sunday with 39 points on 13-of-26 shooting, including a perfect 4-of-4 from downtown. The problem with the Nuggets on offense has been the play of Chauncey Billups (17.8 PPG) and J.R. Smith (11.8 PPG).
While the offense is lacking for Denver, the main issue in this series has been its defense. Even without weapons Andrei Kirilenko (calf) and Mehmet Okur (Achilles) in the lineup, the Jazz have busted the century mark in all four games behind five players averaging double figures. Deron Williams (26.8 PPG) has been the best player on the floor behind ‘Melo, and the Jazz’s frontcourt of Carlos Boozer (22 PPG, 11 RPG) and Paul Millsap (16.8 PPG) have been a load in the paint for the Nuggets to handle.
Utah has been a tough out on the road (22-21 SU, 24-18 ATS) this season and it should have some confidence after winning Game 2 (114-11) in Denver already. However, it’s hard to ignore the fact that the Nuggets have gone 35-8 SU (20-22 ATS) at home.
The Jazz (9-3 SU, 7-3 ATS) and Nuggets (9-2 SU, 5-5 ATS) both received an extra day of rest for tonight and it should be noted that each club has produced solid marks on two days rest this season.
Oddsmakers pushed the total back up to 215 for Game 5 after the two clubs combined for 223 points in Game 4, but that was aided with a 69-point fourth quarter and 77 free throw attempts. We touched on the number of free throw attempts (91) in Game 2 in an ITP piece last Friday and if you see the whistle get blown again, don’t be surprised to see the scoreboard get lit up early and often. The ‘over’ has gone 6-2 in the eight encounters this season, including 3-1 in this series.
Gamblers expecting three straight out of Denver can take a shot on a generous series price of plus-300 (Bet $100 to win $300). Dallas stayed alive last night with a 103-81 rout over San Antonio at home in Game 5 and they were facing a 3-1 deficit as well. Does Denver follow suit at home or perhaps the more important question is will Utah lack a sense of urgency with a comfortable lead?
This contest will be televised on TNT after the Hawks-Bucks battle at 10:35 p.m. EDT.
If necessary, Game 6 will occur on Friday from Energy Solutions Arena in Utah.
vegasinsider.com
NBA News and Notes
Home team is 4-0 in Hawk-Buck series; Milwaukee lost first two games here by 10 points each, making just 10-44 from arc. Atlanta lost by 7 in last game despite making 10-19 from arc; they're having trouble stopping Bucks' guards, who shot 60% in Game 4, after Salmons was 9-11 in the game before that. Milwaukee took 32 foul shots in Game 4, after taking 17 or less in each of first three series games.
Utah won last three games, scoring 112 ppg, as Nuggets' togetherness is being questioned with coach Karl out sick; rare to see playof team shoot over half its shots in three of four series games, but Jazz has, as well as getting to oul line 120 times in last three games. Nuggets are 14-49 from arc in last three games, after making 11-26 in winning first series game.
Tips and Trends
Milwaukee Bucks at Atlanta Hawks
Bucks: Milwaukee has gone from being an afterthought to a dangerous playoff club this season. Milwaukee is proving that they just aren't happy to be in the playoffs, as they've battled back from an 0-2 deficit. Not much was expected from the Bucks this postseason once star C Andrew Bogut went out with an injury. The Bucks are winning with balanced scoring, as they have 6 players averaging at least 9 PPG during the playoffs. F John Salmons is leading the Bucks this postseason with 20.3 PPG, while shooting better than 50% from the field. PG Brandon Jennings is having a great playoff debut, as he's averaging 19.8 PPG and 4 APG. Milwaukee has struggled this season when playing in Atlanta, as they've lost 2 of the 3 games there by double figures. The Bucks are 48-38 SU and 54-30-2 ATS overall this season. The Bucks are 18-25 SU and 27-14-2 ATS in road contests this season. Milwaukee is 25-16 ATS as the listed underdog this season.
Bucks are 12-3 ATS last 15 games as a road underdog.
Over is 10-1 last 11 vs. a team with a winning SU record.
Key Injuries - None.
PROJECTED SCORE: 93 (Side of the Day)
Hawks (-8.5, O/U 191): Atlanta is back at home, after losing both Game 3 and 4 in Milwaukee. It's a troubling trend thats haunted this Hawks team all season, their inability to win on the road. The Hawks will have to fix this flaw if they make it into the later rounds of the playoffs. In the meantime, Atlanta is very happy to be back at home for the crucial Game 5 tonight. The Hawks will look to pick up their defensive pressure, considering they allowed an average of 109 PPG in Games 3 and 4. Prior to these most recent games, the Hawks had held the Bucks under 100 PTS in their 5 other meetings this season. Atlanta is 55-31 SU and 50-36 ATS overall this season. The Hawks are 36-7 SU and 27-16 ATS in home games this season. Atlanta is a very impressive 10-3 ATS as a home favorite between 6.5 and 9 PTS. Atlanta is 11-5 ATS in the game after a SU loss as the listed favorite. G Joe Johnson is leading the Hawks in the playoffs with 25.8 PPG and 6 APG, both team highs.
Hawks are 4-1 ATS last 5 playoff games as a favorite.
Over is 6-1 last 7 vs. a team with a winning SU record.
Key Injuries - None.
PROJECTED SCORE: 95
Utah Jazz at Denver Nuggets
Jazz: Utah is arguably playing the best basketball of any team in the Western Conference. Utah has won 3 of the 4 games both SU and ATS in this series with Denver. Utah has scored more than 100 PTS in each game, and 113 PTS or more in 3 of the 4 games. PG Deron Williams has been simply amazing this series, as he's had at least 20 PTS and 10 assists in each playoff game so far. That feat is so rare, Williams is the 1st player since Magic Johnson to do so, with 20 years spanning the difference. Williams is averaging 26.8 PPG and 12 APG to be specific about his stats this series. F Carlos Boozer has also played well this series, as he's averaging 22 PPG and 11 RPG against the Nuggets. 3 other Jazz players are also averaging double figures for the Jazz this series. Utah is 56-30 SU and 52-31-3 ATS overall this season. The Jazz are 1 game over .500 on the road this season, at 22-21 SU. From a betting standpoint, the Jazz are 24-18-1 ATS away from home this season. Utah is 13-11 ATS as the listed underdog this season, including 1-1 ATS as a road underdog between 6.5 and 9 PTS.
Jazz are 1-5 ATS last 6 games as a road underdog.
Over is 7-3 last 10 playoff games as an underdog.
Key Injuries - F Andrei Kirilenko (calf) is doubtful.
PROJECTED SCORE: 109
Nuggets (-7, O/U 215): Denver is staring elimination in the face, as they are shockingly down 3-1 in their first round series with Utah. The Nuggets simply haven't played good team basketball, and the players are even saying so. F Carmelo Anthony publicly stated that he needed help offensively, yet he had 9 turnovers in a Game 4 loss. G J.R. Smith is tweeting things about his teammates, which certainly isn't helping things. It's quite evident that Denver is missing the services of Coach Karl. Ir'a shocking to see Denver down in this series considering they won 3 of the 4 meetings SU in the regular season. Anthony is averaging 34.5 PPG this series, while shooting better than 52% from the field. PG Chauncey Billups is averaging 17.8 PPG and 6.5 APG for the Nuggets. Denver is 54-32 SU and 36-44-6 ATS overall this season. Denver is 35-8 SU and 20-22-1 ATS in home games this season, including 6-2 ATS as a home favorite between 6.5 and 9 PTS.
Nuggets are 9-1 ATS last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Over is 4-0 last 4 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.
Key Injuries - F Kenyon Martin (knee) is probable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 114 (OVER - Total of the Day)