Wednesday's Best NBA Bets
Milwaukee Bucks at Miami Heat (N/A)
The Heat may not have Dwyane Wade for this Eastern Conference matchup. And they aren’t worried.
Wade is averaging 25.7 points, 6.5 rebounds and 4.5 assists per game, but is battling a sore right quad and could be sidelined for the meeting with Milwaukee. He aggravated the injury when he collided with Travis Outlaw in a win over New Jersey.
"We're battling for [No.] 2 right now, you want to be out there," Wade said. "You also want to make sure going down the stretch with the playoffs coming and big games this weekend that you make the right decision."
The Heat, however, have been bolstered recently by the play of their big men. One of the team’s weak points, the front court is beginning to develop some chemistry. The team has won three straight against the Timberwolves, Wizards and Nets and covered a double-digit spread each time out.
In the win over the Nets, the Heat scored 60 points in the paint and held a 50-30 edge in rebounding. Forwards Zydrunas Ilgauskas and Erick Dampier combined for 21 points and 18 rebounds.
“We’re certainly putting a lot of emphasis on free-throw attempts, layups and dunks,” Miami coach Erik Spoelstra said. “All those numbers have been going up the last few weeks and it’s really been a residual from their collective work and concentration in that area.”
That work will continue with or without D-Wade.
Pick: Heat
Orlando Magic at Charlotte Bobcats (N/A)
The Bobcats are likely to face one of the scariest things in the league: a rested Dwight Howard.
The dominant center told coach Stan Van Gundy the team desperately needs to better space out its minutes and give the starters more rest entering the playoffs. The team already is dealing with injuries to Gilbert Arenas, Chris Duhon and J.J. Reddick. As a result, the club is a mere 3-14 ATS in its past 17 games and has seen the under hit in six of its past 10.
But it’s not like the Bobcats are a picture of health. The team is fighting for a playoff spot and is a frisky 4-3-1 ATS over its past eight games, however multiple players will miss time this week. Tyrus Thomas, Eduardo Najera, Shaun Livingston and Stephen Jackson all are questionable for the game.
As a result to all the injuries, the team has been forced to slow down the pace and play better defense. The Bobcats have seen the under hit in two straight and six of their past 10 overall.
Both teams also are coming off games on Tuesday night and the under has hit in each of the team’s three previous meetings this season.
Pick: Under
Miami Heat get visit from Bucks
By: Stephen Nover
Shed no tears for the Miami Heat. Since losing five in a row back in late February/early March, the Heat have gone 11-2.
Miami has won eight of its last nine games and is battling Boston for the No. 2 playoff seed in the Eastern Conference.
The Heat play twice more before hosting the Celtics in a Sunday showdown. Up next for Miami on Wednesday is a visit from Milwaukee. Tip-off is 5:05 p.m. PT with ESPN televising.
Chicago point guard Derrick Rose is generating a lot of MVP buzz. However, a strong case can be made for LeBron James. He’s second in scoring next to Kevin Durant averaging 26.6 points a game, 13th in assists at seven per game and 32nd in rebounding at 7.5 per contest.
James also is No. 1 in plus/minus minutes when on the court, a category Rose currently ranks 10th. James has scored in double figures in 75 consecutive games for Miami, tying Alonzo Mourning for third best in team history.
The Bucks have the No. 3 defense in the NBA, but haven’t been able to stop James in losing all three previous meetings to Miami this season. James is averaging 22.6 points, 7.3 rebounds and 6.6 assists against Milwaukee, while also coming up with seven steals, a category he places 12th.
Dealing with injuries the entire season, the Bucks’ playoff hopes are realistically shot trailing Indiana by three games entering Tuesday. Milwaukee lost a huge one-point road game to the Pacers this past Friday. The Bucks, though, came back to defeat Philadelphia, 93-87, at home the next night in overtime as 1½-point ‘dogs. The combined 180 points went ‘under’ the 186-point total.
Milwaukee beat the 76ers despite missing Carlos Delfino (rib), Ersan Ilyasova (concussion) and Jon Brockman (shoulder). Star center Andrew Bogut is playing with a painful right elbow and may not last much longer. He’s scheduled to undergo arthroscopic surgery once the season ends.
Drew Gooden and Michael Redd have returned from extended absences for the Bucks, although Redd has been limited to single-digit minutes since returning from a second major knee surgery on March 28.
The Bucks played at Orlando on Tuesday. The Bucks were 3-0-1 ATS in their past four road matchups entering the Orlando game.
Milwaukee is 5-4 ATS in the second of back-to-back games going back to February. This marks the Bucks’ fourth game in six days.
Entering their Florida trip, the Bucks had gone ‘under’ in 21 of their last 30 games. It’s easy to see why there have been so many ‘unders’ since Milwaukee ranks last in scoring and field goal percentage, while playing outstanding defense.
Brandon Jennings leads the Bucks in scoring averaging 16.1 points per game. By contrast, Miami has James averaging 26.6 points a game, Dwyane Wade putting up 25.7 points per game and Chris Bosh averaging 18.7 points a game.
Wade is questionable for Wednesday's game due to a quad injury sufferend in Sunday's win at New Jersey.
The Bucks have played Miami tight, losing 101-95 in overtime as seven-point home ‘dogs on Jan. 7. The combined 196 points went ‘over’ the 183-point total. James scored 26 points, pulled down 10 rebounds and had six steals.
Just three days earlier, the Heat defeated the Bucks, 101-89, as 9½-point home favorites. The combined 190 points went ‘over’ the 182-point total. Wade led Miami with 34 points. The Bucks were missing Jennings, their scoring and assists leader.
Milwaukee trailed Miami by three points midway through the fourth quarter during its first meeting on Dec. 6, before falling 88-78 as five-point home ‘dogs. The combined 166 points went ‘under’ the 183½-point total.
The ‘under’ has cashed in six of the last eight meetings between the two clubs.
Inside the Paint - Wednesday
By Chris David
After a one-day hiatus, the Association heated up the hardwood last night and we learned a lot. For starters, underdogs barked loud to the tune of a 10-3 record against the spread. Even more impressive, they posted a 7-6 straight up mark and we’re not talking about small pups here folks. The Clippers (+9), Kings (+8.5) Warriors (+10.5) and Jazz (+14) all won on the road as heavy ‘dogs against the Grizzlies, Rockets, Trail Blazers and Lakers respectively.
Every now and then, some bettors will take a shot on a wild parlay with live ‘dogs and cash. If that individual would’ve played the above quartet outright, you’re looking at a ticket to never forget.
According to the VegasInsider.com Parlay Calculator, a four-team $100 money-line parlay wager would bring back:
L.A. Clippers (+450)
Sacramento (+375)
Golden State (+500)
Utah (+1300)
Wager $100 to win $219,350
Who said you can’t make six digits betting?
Even though we had some upsets last night, we also had some key wins. San Antonio stopped Atlanta 97-90, which helped the Spurs inch closer to the top overall seed especially with the Lakers falling. Chicago kept its grip on the No. 1 spot in the East with a home win (97-94) over Phoenix and Boston earned a solid victory (99-82) against Philadelphia.
Charlotte’s loss at Cleveland (89-99) all but assured them of the summer off and Houston’s setback at home to Sacramento (101-104) certainly limited its chances as well.
And we’d be remiss not to mention Texas A&M’s 76-70 win over Notre Dame in the women’s championship last night. The Aggies and Irish actually put on a great display compared to the disaster between Connecticut and Butler in the men’s finale on Monday.
Let’s just say we’re happy that we had 13 games in the NBA last night and even happier that we get another 12 tonight. We do have some meaningless tilts, but you can bet on them and make money.
Without further adieu, let’s take a quick look at each contest.
New York at Philadelphia: This Atlantic Division battle is actually pretty big, we think. If the Knicks win, the two teams will have identical 40-39 records and the season series will be knotted at 2-2. One team would earn the sixth seed, with the seventh to the other. What does that mean? You either face Miami or Boston in the first round. Pick your poison, right? For our purposes, Knicks have won and covered four straight and the ‘over’ has cashed in all four too.
Washington at Indiana: Break up the Wizards! They’ve won and covered three straight and four of five. Hard to bet on a team with a horrible road mark (3-35 SU, 14-24 ATS)) but Washington has won two in a row away from home. Taking the points (+11) seems like an attractive proposition, especially against an Indiana team that could be flat after getting help with Charlotte’s loss last night. The Pacers do need the win and can clinch but this team isn’t a good buy as a double-digit ‘chalk.’
Cleveland at Toronto: If you bet this game and you win, you’re lucky. If you lose, you’re a jackass. Both teams have been trending towards the ‘over’ lately. Again, be smart!
Orlando at Charlotte: Lots of injuries in this one, which is why you have no opener. The Magic are now 2-14 ATS in their last 16 games.
Milwaukee at Miami: Don’t be surprised to see Dwyane Wade (thigh) as a late scratch here. The Bucks are off an ugly loss to Orlando (72-78) last night, while Miami comes in rested. Technically, you can fade the Heat at home in their first game back from a four-game road trip (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS).
New Jersey at Detroit: The Nets will be without Deron Williams (wrist) tonight and that tells you everything. He had 18 points and 21 assists in New Jersey’s 107-105 win over Minnesota last night. Detroit is banged up too. Passing here could be the best option.
Houston at New Orleans: New Orleans can clinch the playoffs tonight with a home win over Houston, who is still mathematically alive. The line (3.5) seems real tricky on this one and the total (198) is geared towards Houston’s run ‘n gun style. Did you know that the Hornets have watched the ‘under’ go 48-28 on the season?
Phoenix at Minnesota: If anything the ‘over’ could be worth a look, but it’s a tad expensive (217). Hard to back the Timberwolves, losers of 11 straight or lay the points with a Phoenix team that is playing out the string.
L.A. Clippers at Oklahoma City: The Thunder had a nice road win at Denver (101-94) last night, who they’ll most likely face in the first round of the playoffs. Los Angeles rallied for the upset at Memphis and we wouldn’t be surprised to see another close game here tonight. The total is hovering around 201 points, which seems high considering the Clippers and Thunder haven’t been lighting up the scoreboard lately.
Sacramento at San Antonio: Oddsmakers are expecting a 111-100 San Antonio victory at home, which is doable. However, the Kings have been competitive lately and certainly fighting down the stretch. Five of the last six in this series has gone ‘over’ the number, including the first two meetings this season.
Denver at Dallas: Even though we have two playoff teams here, this one can be defined as meaningless with both the Mavericks (3) and Nuggets (5) penciled into their postseason seeds. Denver has played well since trading Carmelo and Chauncey, but most might be surprised by their total tendencies during that span. The ‘under’ has gone 15-5 in the second-half, which includes a current run of five straight.
L.A. Lakers at Golden State: After starting the second-half of the season 17-1, the Lakers have dropped two straight at home to Denver (90-95) on Sunday and then again last night to Utah (85-86). Will we see three consecutive losses for the Purple and Gold tonight? Phil Jackson’s team has won 12 straight (6-6 ATS) against Golden State, who is coming off back-to-back victories against Dallas (99-92) and Portland (99-92). This one is televised on ESPN, so the national spotlight could have the Warriors amped up. Looking back at the last 20 games between these teams, Los Angeles hasn’t been held under 104 points. Tonight’s ‘over/under’ is 203, while the Lakers are laying close to seven points. When you do the quick math, the ‘team total’ for the Lakers should be sitting around 105 or 106 points. This writer has won and lost, but how can you not take L.A. ‘over’ in this spot? Especially after watching the Lakers score 90 and 85 in their last two.
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