Game 5, Mavs vs. Nuggets
By Chris David
“We ain’t coming back here!”
Kenyon Martin shouted that and a whole lot more after the Nuggets lost a 119-117 decision to the Mavericks in Game 4 on Tuesday. While the Dallas faithful laughed at K-Mart’s rant and profanities, the former Cincinnati Bearcat was probably right.
Oddsmakers opened Denver as a seven-point favorite for Game 5 and the number has quickly jumped to 8 1/2 and most believe it could climb higher, including one of VegasInsider.com’s top NBA experts Paul Bovi.
Bovi said, ”The Nuggets are a quicker, more athletic group and it is clear that the Mavericks have no answers when it comes to containing their offense. Only an implosion by the Nuggets will prevent them from clinching the series on Wednesday in what should extend to a double-digit win by games end.”
It’s hard to argue against but another double-digit victory at Pepsi Center, considering the recent history.
Denver has ripped off 15 straight victories at home, with the last loss coming on Mar. 9 against Houston, 97-95. What’s even more incredible about the current streak is that 14 of the 15 wins have come by double digits.
The average point-spread over this stretch was Denver -10.5 and when the number dipped below 10, the Nuggets went 5-1 ATS, including a perfect 5-0 run during the postseason.
Depending if and when you purchased the Nuggets on Monday, you could’ve been a winner. The Mavericks closed as 2 ½-point favorites at a handful of betting shops in Game 4, which means the Nuggets’ ATS record now stands at 9-0.
It’s fair to say Denver stole Game 3 with the no-call on Carmelo Anthony but Dallas didn’t deserve to win last night either. The Mavericks trailed by 10 points at halftime and if it wasn’t for Dirk Nowitzki, who posted 44 points and 13 rebounds. The German product has arguably been the best player on the court in this series.
Only Denver’s Carmelo Anthony has been just as consistent. He’s averaging 30 points per game in this series, plus he’s added 7.3 boards and 3.5 assists, all three above his season averages. Not to mention, his late bombs have been money balls for gamblers, which is all that matters to the readers at VI, right?
The only difference in Game 4 came on the glass, where Dallas held a 16 rebound (50-34) edge. Chris Andersen (flu) missed the contest for Denver and he’s averaged just under 7 rebounds in this series. If you put him on the court, the difference is two boards (43-41) and probably the reason why the Nuggets didn’t complete the sweep.
As we talked about in Monday’s column, of the eighty-eight teams that have opened up 3-0 leads in the history of the NBA Playoffs, 53 (including the Cavs this year) have pulled off the sweep. The next most common outcome was five games, which could happen tonight. If Dallas was to force the series back home, they would become just the seventh team to do so.
The odds are against the Mavs, which is why they’re listed as low as $3.50 (Bet $100 to win $350) and as high as $4.20 underdogs on the money-line in Game 5.
If the side seems too predictable or too rich for your blood, then perhaps the total is the way to attack the ticket counter.
Bovi added, “The total may look a little frothy at 213.5, but consider that these two have combined to attempt 246 free throws over the last trio of games and that the Nuggets have not been held to less than 106 points in any of the four contests.”
The ‘over’ stands at 3-1 through the first four, but could easily be 2-2 if it wasn’t for Anthony’s game-winning 3-point in Game 3.
If necessary, Denver and Dallas will play Game 6 on Friday from the Lone Star State.
TNT will provide national coverage of tonight’s battle at 9:05 p.m. EDT.
vegasinsider.com
Game of the day: Mavericks at Nuggets
By Ted Sevransky
Dallas Mavericks at Denver Nuggets (-8.5, 213)
Chippy, Chippy
This series has been feisty from the start, but Game 4 played out like a Game 7 with both teams stepping up the intensity. The refs had little choice but to start blowing their whistles again and again, trying to keep the two teams from an outright brawl.
Game 3 featured 61 fouls and 89 free throw attempts. Game 4 was every bit as physical with 58 fouls and 87 trips to the charity stripe. Game 4 also produced a whopping seven technical fouls and two flagrant fouls.
Off-court distractions
The physical nature of the on-court play has been mirrored by the numerous bizarre off-court incidents in this series. The first issue came prior to Game 3, when a mysterious woman with a long criminal record was arrested at Dirk Nowitzki’s house.
“It's pretty obvious that I'm going through a tough time in my personal life right now," Nowitzki told reporters. "I really am not at the stage where I can talk about it yet and feel comfortable talking about it… I think in the playoffs, it's really time to focus on basketball and not let distractions come up.”
Rumors persist that the woman is pregnant with Nowitzki’s child and the incident continues to make headlines in the Dallas papers - a clear distraction for the Mavs lone superstar.
Nowitzki’s wild week pales in comparison to the feud developing between Mavericks owner Mark Cuban and Nuggets forward Kenyon Martin. Following Game 3’s last second loss, Cuban blew his top. He stormed onto the court, knocked over a photographer and reportedly told Martin’s mother, sitting in the stands, that his son was a ‘thug’.
Despite a public apology on his blog, the rift between Cuban and the Nuggets has not healed. Martin got into a vulgar shouting match with fans following the Nuggets Game 4 defeat in Dallas. Denver head coach George Karl ripped into the fans following the game.
“I’d probably use an uglier word than ‘hostile’ but I’m not going to do that right now. I don’t think it was very classy.”
No more blowouts?
The Nuggets were pointspread machines to begin the postseason thanks to a steady string of blowout victories. They beat New Orleans by 29, 15, 58 and 21, winning the series in five games. Denver was able to extend the streak winning by 14 and 12 in two home wins against Dallas.
But the scoreboard has tightened up considerably in each of the last two games. Game 3 was decided on a last second (and controversial) Carmelo Anthony 3-pointer, resulting in a one point Nuggets victory. Game 4 came down to the final shot on the final possession as well, a Mavericks two-point win.
One sided series
The Nuggets have dominated the Mavericks both this year and last. Denver went 4-0 straight up and 3-1 against the spread vs. the Mavs in the regular season after notching a 4-0 ATS, 3-1 SU mark against Dallas in 2008.
Combine that with the success Denver has enjoyed against Dallas in this playoff series and it's clear that Karl's troops matchup well with Dirk and Company.
Fast paced tempo
Each of the last three games has flown Over the total after an 86-point Mavs effort in Game 1 resulted in the lone Under of the series. Denver is averaging 112 points per game in the first four games, scoring at least 106 in every contest.
But the Nuggets' defensive intensity faltered during their two games in Texas. Some of this has to do with the zebras calling every ticky-tack foul and, as a result, created numerous scoring chances with the shot clock stopped.
But still, the 119 points Denver allowed in Game 4 on 50.6 percent shooting was its worst defensive effort of the postseason. And it’s worth noting that Dallas was able to reach 119 in regulation despite a dismal 3-14 shooting game from beyond the arc.
Injury update
Denver’s Chris Anderson has developed into quite a fan favorite. But Birdman was sidelined due to a stomach ailment in Game 4, and Denver missed his energy and intensity around the glass. Anderson is officially listed as questionable for Game 5, but sources indicate that he is expected to suit up and play.
The Mavs Josh Howard has been playing on two bad ankles, one of which will require offseason surgery. Despite the bad ankles, Howard was able to play for more than 34 minutes on Monday, finishing with 21 points and 11 boards. For the series, Howard has been affected, connecting on just 19-52 shot attempts, including an 0-9 showing from three-point range.
NBA Today
SCOREBOARD
Wednesday, May 13
Dallas at Denver (9 p.m. EDT). The Nuggets try again to close out the series and advance to the Western Conference semifinals after the Mavericks forced Game 5 with a 119-117 victory Monday night.
STARS
Tuesday
— Paul Pierce(notes), Celtics, had 19 points, nine rebounds and eight assists in Boston’s 92-88 victory over Orlando in Game 5 of their series.
— Kobe Bryant(notes), Lakers, scored 26 points in just three quarters to lead Los Angeles to a 118-78 victory over Houston.
— Glen Davis(notes), Celtics, scored 10 of his 22 points in the fourth quarter to help Boston rally from a 14-point deficit in the final period.
STEPH-ING UP
The Boston Celtics got a big lift from backup point guard Stephon Marbury(notes) in their 92-88 victory over Orlando in Game 5 of the Western Conference semifinals. Marbury scored all of his 12 points in the fourth quarter, helping bring the Celtics back from a 14-point deficit early in the final period.
BYNUM BACK
With Lamar Odom(notes) still recovering from a back injury after a hard foul Sunday, Andrew Bynum(notes) returned to the starting lineup and scored 14 points on 5-of-6 shooting in 20 minutes of the Lakers’ 118-78 victory over Houston. Odom, who had replaced Bynum after Los Angeles dropped the series opener, played 18 1/2 minutes and finished with 10 points.
HOUSTON HAS A PROBLEM
The Rockets received subpar performances from their starting guards in their 118-78 loss to the Lakers in Game 5 of their series. Aaron Brooks(notes) was held to 14 points after scoring a career-high 34 on Sunday. Ron Artest(notes), Houston’s leading postseason scorer, had a horrible night, shooting 4-of-15 for nine points. The Rockets shot under 33 percent and matched the worst playoff loss in franchise history.
SPEAKING
“We’ve got to stay focused and understand that the effort we gave tonight is not going to be enough on Thursday. It’s just not. We’re not playing some chump team. I don’t care how many people they have out. This is a tough team, it’s a tough team full of competitors.”—Kobe Bryant after the Lakers beat Houston 116-76 to take a 3-2 lead in their Western Conference semifinal series.
NBA PLAYOFFS
WESTERN CONFERENCE
(6) Dallas (5-4 SU, 4-5 ATS) at (2) Denver (7-2 SU, 9-0 ATS)
The Mavericks, after barely keeping their season alive with a last-minute, come-from-behind victory in Game 4, once again try to stave off elimination when they head back to the Pepsi Center for Game 5 of this best-of-7 battle against the Nuggets.
Dirk Nowitzki poured in 44 points Monday, rallying Dallas from several double-digit deficits to claim a 119-117 victory as a 2½-point home chalk, cutting Denver’s series lead to 3-1. Nowitzki, who also had 13 rebounds, led six Mavs in double figures, with Josh Howard (21 points, 13 rebounds) and Jason Kidd (13 points, 10 rebounds, six assists) contributing double-doubles. Dallas also killed Denver on the boards (50-34).
The Nuggets’ Carmelo Anthony racked up 41 points and 11 rebounds in defeat, and Chauncey Billups had 24 points and seven assists. Denver hit a respectable 32 of 44 free throws (72.7 percent), but Dallas had one less attempt and made 36 from the charity stripe (83.7 percent). The Game 3 setback ended the Nuggets’ five-game winning streak, but they’re still 21-5 SU (17-9 ATS) in their last 26 games.
Dallas’ victory Monday was its first in eight attempts against Denver this season, but by barely getting the spread-cover Monday, the Nuggets are now on an 11-1 ATS roll (10-2 SU) in this rivalry (7-1 ATS this season). Denver is also 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings at the Pepsi Center, including a 14-point victory in Game 1 and a 12-point triumph in Game 2. However, the road team has still covered in five of the last seven head-to-head battles and the ‘dog is 8-3 ATS in the last 11.
Overall this season, Denver is 38-8 SU (28-17-1 ATS) at home, including an ongoing 15-game winning streak at the Pepsi Center (10-5 ATS). Dallas is 20-26 SU (23-23 ATS) on the road, including 2-3 SU and ATS in the postseason.
Not only have the Nuggets cashed in every postseason game to this point, but they are on additional pointspread sprees of 16-5 overall, 16-4 against the Western Conference, 10-1 against the Southwest Division and 6-0 at home.
The Mavericks are on a 13-5 ATS run as a playoff pup, but their pointspread streaks turn negative from there, including 0-4 in this series, 2-5 on the highway and 8-20 against the Northwest Division.
The over for Dallas is on streaks of 5-1 overall, 6-1 on the highway, 8-2 in second-round playoff games and 4-1 when catching points. Likewise, the over is 9-4 in Denver’s last 13 home contests, with the Nuggets favored in all 13. Finally, following a 4-0 “under” run in this rivalry, the last three games in this series have eclipsed the posted price, with Monday’s game soaring over the 210-point total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DENVER and OVER
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