Game of the day: Celtics at Magic
By Teddy Covers
Not dead yet
Most teams facing a 3-0 series deficit basically mail in Game 4. We’ve seen it happen repeatedly in the NBA playoffs this year.
Orlando earned sweeps in the first two rounds, easily dismantling Charlotte and Atlanta in Game 4 after taking 3-0 series leads. The Lakers and Suns had similar success sweeping the Jazz and Spurs out of the postseason.
In fact, the only team all year to go up 3-0 in a series and lose Game 4 is the Boston Celtics. They’ve done it twice - once against Miami in the first round and here in the conference championships following their overtime loss to Orlando in Game 4.
Heading into Game 4, the Magic’s biggest lead of the entire series had been a 3-point edge in the first quarter of Game 2. But Orlando led by five after one quarter of Game 4, and took a 10-point lead in the second quarter. The Magic never extended that lead further, but it was enough to withstand a late Boston run to win in overtime.
Orlando enjoyed strong production from its two best players this postseason. Dwight Howard finished with 32 points and 16 boards, while Jameer Nelson scored 23 points and dished nine assists, hitting a pair of clutch 3-pointers in the overtime session.
But the Celtics deserved to lose as much (if not more) than Orlando deserved to win. Boston lacked the sense of urgency that had been a constant throughout its impressive run of six straight wins against the Cavs and Magic.
For most of the game, Doc Rivers squad lacked intensity. Those repeated offensive shortcomings were on full display during crunch time, as Boston managed only 24 points in the fourth quarter and the overtime session combined.
The dreaded 0-3 deficit
No NBA team has ever come back from a 3-0 deficit to win a playoff series. There have been 93 teams that have taken a 3-0 series lead and 93 teams have moved on to the next round (or won the championship).
In fact, a team has rallied to win the series after facing a 3-0 series deficit only four times in the history of major pro sports leagues in the US. It’s happened three times in the NHL - most recently, earlier this month by the Flyers over the Bruins - and once in baseball, when the Red Sox rallied to beat the Yankees in the 2004 ALCS.
“At some point, somebody is going to come from 3-0 down and win a series,” Magic coach Stan Van Gundy told reporters. “The only thing I knew for sure was it would start by winning Game 4. I figured that one out. You have to win Game 4. … This was a must-win.”
“When you go down 3-0, what you're fighting against is that human nature to just sort of let it go. Our guys didn't do that,” he continued.
The Celtics, to a man, didn’t sound too concerned about Orlando’s first victory of the series.
“They don’t want to leave. We’re going to have to throw them out. It’s just like somebody renting a house,” Glen Davis told the media.
Crunch-time woes
Orlando got absolutely nothing from Vince Carter in Game 4. Carter’s first-quarter layup was the only shot that he made all night and he finished with as many turnovers (three) as points scored.
But Carter’s no-show is only one piece of the crunch time equation for Orlando. Dwight Howard missed five of six free throw attempts in the fourth quarter and overtime, cracking under the pressure.
As a team, the Magic were inept offensively when it mattered most. They scored only a single point in the final two minutes of regulation and failed to score a single point in overtime until Nelson banked in a long 3-pointer with under three minutes to play. Had the Celtics been able to hit shots themselves, this series would not be going back to Orlando for a Game 5.
But Boston didn’t hit those shots during crunch time. The Celtics have been outscored in the fourth in all four games of this series, continuing a season long pattern of wilting late in competitive games.
After making his first five shots of the game, Kevin Garnett missed his last seven attempts from the floor. Paul Pierce led Boston with 32 points, but he missed his last eight jump shots, many of them contested.
The Celtics bench was also a no-show in Game 4. Rasheed Wallace missed all four 3-point attempts and picked up a key technical foul in the fourth quarter. Tony Allen and Michael Finley were complete non-factors, despite getting more than twenty minutes of playing time between them.
Injury concerns
Boston is a banged up squad right now. Kendrick Perkins wrist injury (adding to his shoulder and knee problems) has left him without any sort of offensive game at all. Perkins is on the court for defensive and rebounding purposes only, leaving Boston with only four offensive options when he’s playing.
Tony Allen’s ankle injury is problematic as well. Nate Robinson – relegated to the end of Doc Rivers’ bench here in the playoffs – got some of Allen’s minutes in Monday’s loss.
And Rivers has to be concerned with the one guy that Boston can’t afford to lose – point guard Rajon Rondo, the team’s MVP during their impressive postseason run. Rondo went to the locker room suffering from muscle spasms in the first half and his counterpart, Jameer Nelson, won the point guard battle for the first time all series.
Trends and angles
-The underdog is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings between these two teams.
-The road team is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings between these two teams.
-The Celtics are 4-0 SU and ATS following their last four losses.
-The Celtics are 5-2 SU and ATS on the road here in the playoffs.
-The Magic were 11-0 SU (9-1-1 ATS) in their previous 11 home games prior to the start of this series.
Celtics at Magic, Game 5
By Kevin Rogers
Many people figured each of the conference finals would end up in sweeps after both Boston and Los Angeles took 2-0 series leads. The Suns saved their series with a Game 3 home victory, while the Magic avoided the sweep after holding off the Celtics in overtime of Monday's Game 4. Orlando heads back home to try and extend this series to a Game 6. However, the Magic has to take care of business in Wednesday's Game 5, looking for their first home win of the series.
Stan Van Gundy's team saved face with Monday's performance, as the Magic led throughout the game before the Celtics forced overtime. Dwight Howard put Orlando on his back with a 32-point, 16-rebound performance, the most points the Magic center has scored in 11 playoff games against Boston. Jameer Nelson drilled back-to-back threes to put the game away in overtime, as Orlando hit a series-high ten treys.
For as great as Rajon Rondo has been in the postseason, Nelson outplayed the ex-Kentucky guard in Game 4. Rondo was limited to nine points on 3-10 shooting from the floor, but did dish out eight assists. Despite committing a game-high six turnovers, Nelson put up 23 points and nine assists, his fifth 20+ point game of the playoffs.
Paul Pierce paced the Celtics with 32 points, but failed to hit a three-pointer in six attempts. Both Pierce and Kevin Garnett recorded double-doubles, while Ray Allen helped lead the comeback with 22 points and five treys. The Boston bench was noticeably silent by scoring just 12 points, a stark contrast from the 28-point effort in Game 3.
The most interesting storyline to come out of Monday's contest was from the totals perspective. The side was never really in doubt, as Boston's biggest advantage was two points, spelling a nice underdog victory (and money-line win) for Orlando. Following a 57-point opening quarter, 'over' players felt good about their chances. However, the pace slowed down considerably with 41 and 37 point quarters to get 'under' bettors back in the game. The lone question going into the final minutes of regulation was if the contest would go to overtime. Neither team scored in the last 1:15, causing 'under' players to sweat. The teams combined for 16 points in overtime to land on 188, but depending on the line you got could have spelled a win, loss, or push.
Since most books closed the total at 187 ½, we'll call it an 'over,' the first time these teams didn't play to an 'under' in this series. In fact, eight of the last ten meetings have finished 'under' the total, all being listed in the 187-191 range.
The underdog has profited greatly in this series, even dating back to the regular season. After Orlando's cover as seven-point 'dogs in Game 4, the club getting points improved to 7-1 ATS in the teams' eight meetings this season. The Magic owns a 7-4 SU and 5-6 ATS mark at home off a road victory, as Orlando lost to Boston in this situation in the series opener.
The Game 4 defeat halted a six-game ATS winning streak for the Celtics in the postseason, dropping Doc Rivers' club to 11-4 ATS. Heading into Wednesday's contest as an underdog, the Celtics are 6-2 ATS when receiving points in the playoffs, while winning six of those games straight-up.
On the flip side, despite a pair of losses in the first two games of the series, the Magic is 7-3 ATS as a favorite in the postseason. Since April 1, Orlando has made bettors plenty of money with a 15-5 ATS mark, but that can all go up in flames with a setback in the most important game of the season.
Orlando is listed as four-point 'chalk' at most books, while the total is set at 186. The game tips off at 8:30 PM EST and will be televised nationally on ESPN.
Mr. Rogers' Neighborhood:
Amazingly, Game 4 between the Magic and Celtics was the first game to go to overtime this postseason. In an otherwise bland playoffs, Orlando did buck up when it could have packed it in on multiple occasions. For those that got burned on the 'over,' I decided to go back and see how many times overtime affected totals. There were 73 games that went to at least one overtime this season, as only ten games still finished 'under' the total even after the extra five minutes. Meanwhile, 31 of those games finished regulation 'under' the total prior to a bail-out in overtime.
How much does the Coach of the Year Award really mean? Not including Oklahoma City's Scott Brooks, who won the award this past season, each of the last six winners are no longer with their teams. Mike Brown, Byron Scott, Sam Mitchell, Avery Johnson, Mike D'Antoni, and Hubie Brown are all elsewhere, with D'Antoni the lone coach still employed by a team, albeit the Knicks. Utah's Jerry Sloan has never won the award, while Phil Jackson has not been named Coach of the Year with the Lakers, so you figure out the motivation behind it. Basically, it's "Coach of the team that improved the most Award," and it doesn't buy you a long time if you don't take your team far consistently.
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NBA PLAYOFFS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Boston (11-4 SU and ATS) at Orlando (9-3 SU, 8-4 ATS)
The fourth-seeded Celtics take their second shot at advancing to the NBA Finals when they travel to Amway Arena to face the second-seeded Magic, who return home still in must-win mode in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference finals.
Boston had a chance to sweep Orlando but fell short in Game 4 Monday night, taking a 96-92 overtime loss as a hefty 7½-point home favorite to halt a six-game SU and ATS tear. The Celts had the last possession of regulation, but failed to get off a shot in fumbling the ball away. Paul Pierce had 32 points and 11 rebounds in defeat, Ray Allen poured in 22 points, and Kevin Garnett scored 14 and had 12 boards.
Dwight Howard paced five Orlando players in double figures, as he had by far his best game of this series with 32 and 16 rebounds, and Jameer Nelson added 23 points and nine assists in the win-or-go-home game. The Magic’s long-ranger shooters finally showed up, hitting 10 of 28 from three-point range (35.7 percent), while limiting Boston to 5 of 18 from long distance (27.8 percent). Despite the victory Monday, the Magic face seemingly impossible odds in that no team has ever overcome a 3-0 deficit in a best-of-7 NBA playoff series, in 93 previous opportunities.
Boston is 5-2 ATS (4-3 SU) in the last seven meetings with Orlando, and the Magic’s SU and ATS win in Game 4 gave the road team and the underdog an 8-1 ATS mark in the last nine clashes in this rivalry. The Celts have covered on their last four trips to Amway, including outright upsets in Games 1 and 2. Also, the SU winner has cashed in 20 of the last 22 meetings between these teams, including 14 of the last 15 and the last five in a row.
Additionally, each of Boston’s last 25 games overall, including all 15 playoff contests, and the SU winner is 19-1 ATS in the Magic’s last 20 contests.
Boston is 31-17 on the highway (26-21-1 ATS) this season (5-2 SU and ATS in the playoffs) and has won its last four playoff roadies – a pair of upsets against top-seeded Cleveland, and upsets in Games 1 and 2 against Orlando in this series.
Orlando is 38-9 at home (27-19-1 ATS), including 4-2 SU and 3-3 ATS in the playoffs. Prior to dumping the first two games of the East finals, the Magic had won 11 straight (8-2-1 ATS) and 17 of their previous 18 (13-4-1 ATS) inside Amway Arena.
Along with their 11-4 ATS mark in the postseason (6-1 last seven), the Celtics are on pointspread tears of 4-0 after either a SU or an ATS loss, 4-0 on the highway, 5-0 as an underdog, 15-5-1 as a playoff pup, 6-1 after a day off and 4-1 in conference finals contests.
The Magic are 2-4 ATS in their last six conference finals tilts, but remain on several positive pointspread sprees, including 21-8-1 overall, 6-1 after a spread-cover, 20-7-1 after a SU win, 19-7-1 after a day off, 17-7 against Atlantic Division foes, 7-2 as a playoff chalk and 6-0 as a favorite of than five points.
Boston is on “under” rolls of 4-1 overall, 10-3 in conference finals contests, 5-2 after a day off and 4-1 as a playoff ‘dog, though the over is 35-17 in the Celts’ last 52 following a SU loss. Orlando sports a bundle of “under” streaks, including 8-3-1 overall (5-1 last six), 20-8-2 at home (all as a chalk), 4-1 after either a SU or an ATS win, 37-13-1 after a day off and 18-7-1 as a playoff favorite.
Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in 10 of the last 12 overall, including six of eight this season. Monday’s game, despite going OT, barely went over the posted price of 187½, after the under hit in the first three games of this series. The total has also remained low in five of the last six Celtics-Magic tilts in Orlando.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
NBA RoundUp For 5/26
By Dan Bebe
Celtics @ Magic - Orlando by 4 with a total of 186. This game is going to be a point of contention among bettors from all circles - sharp, square, recreational, serious, situational, line move, player match-up...you name it, they're probably disagreeing about something. Obviously, there's going to be some overlap, since there are really only 4 stances you can take on any one Playoff game, but I think you guys that read every day catch my drift. The sharps are going to take the team with the line value, the squares are going to take the team that has looked better, the situational handicapper is going to like the team with nothing to lose, the line move expert is going to say that this number opened relatively high for a reason, and the player match-up guy is sitting on the notion that one team has an edge on 80% of the floor. Well, let's break a few down. I consider myself something of a player match-up guy, so from that standpoint, you still have to like Boston. The Celtics got some clunkers in game 4 from the two guys that have been the key to their resurgence, Pierce and Rondo, so you have to think that those guys, who continue to hold a huge clutch edge on their direction competition (Vince Carter, Jameer Nelson) will pull it together for game 5. The Celtics are stronger at shooting guard with Ray Allen over Matt Barnes, and are stronger at PF with Garnett over Lewis. So, other than in the middle, Boston still holds a massive player edge, and I find it somewhat remarkable they were able to take Orlando to OT without significant contributions from their two most important players. That doesn't bode well for Orlando, especially since the odds that both Pierce and Rondo suffer through another poor game is pretty low. From a situational standpoint, the Magic are still the team playing with nothing to lose, and now Boston is the team that might have a shred of doubt in the back of their minds. I'm not buying into this theory. The line move side is the one notion that does put a few holes in the Boston side. This one opening at Orlando -4 is telling, since books could have likely opened this thing closer to Magic -2.5 and still gotten plenty of public money on the Boston side, so it seems that there are some larger bets coming in on the Magic side. I don't like to argue with a strong opening number, but at the same time, Boston has been absolutely crushing it on the road. They won 2 games in Cleveland, 2 more in Orlando, and could have won 3 in Cleveland if not for a game one meltdown. Hopefully, that's enough coverage to get us all started, and personally, I lean to Boston to wrap things up on the road - it almost seems fitting for this team to knock off the 2 best teams in the East and leave those fans depressed and unsatisfied. As for the total, we got an Over winner on Monday with the help of overtime, but without the extra time, it wouldn't have been close. I learned my lesson with this series, and without all the free throws, it would have taken 2-OT to get there. Lean to the Under.
Tips and Trends
Boston Celtics at Orlando Magic
Celtics: Boston appeared a bit disinterested and tired at the conclusion of Game 4. After coming back from a 7 point deficit late in regulation, the Celtics struggled in the overtime period. As a result, Boston missed out on sweeping the Magic out of the playoffs. Now Boston has to play at least 1 more game before punching their ticket to the NBA Finals. Boston shot .42% from the field in Game 4, as they only had 3 players score in double figures. F Paul Pierce and G Ray Allen combined for 54 PTS, including 5 three pointers. The only other Celtics player to score in double figures was Kevin Garnett, who had 14 PTS and 12 rebounds. Boston needs to focus on ending this series tonight, as they don't even want to consider becoming the 1st team in NBA history to blow a 3-0 series lead. The Celtics have played well on the Magic floor, as they've beaten them 3 times alone this year there. The Celtics are 61-36 SU and 44-51-2 ATS overall this year. Boston is 31-17 SU and 26-21-1 ATS in road games this season. The Celtics are 7-6 ATS this year as a road underdog between 3.5 and 6 PTS.
Celtics are 5-0 ATS last 5 games as an underdog.
Under is 10-2 last 12 against a team with a winning SU record.
Key Injuries - G Rajon Rondo (leg) is probable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 87
Magic (-4, O/U 186): Orlando played a heroic game 4, as they fought hard when nobody expected them too. Credit Coach Van Gundy and the experience and professionalism of this Magic team for extending this series another game. Many Orlando fans believe they are back in this series, despite being down 3-1 in their best of 7 series. The Magic host 2 of the final 3 games during the Eastern Conference Finals. Orlando won game 4 in Boston 96-92 in overtime, with C Dwight Howard leading the way. Howard had a team high 32 PTS and 16 rebounds in Game 4, making 13 of his 19 shots. Howard was unstoppable in the paint, as he also contributed 4 blocked shots on the defensive end. PG Jameer Nelson contributed 23 PTS and 9 assists in helping the Magic extend the series. G J.J. Redick and F Matt Barnes contributed 22 PTS combined in Game 4, including 5 three pointers combined. Orlando is 68-26 SU and 54-38-2 ATS overall this season. The Magic are 38-9 SU and 26-19 ATS in home games this season. Orlando is 2-2 this season as the listed home favorite between 3.5 and 6 PTS.
Magic are 7-3-1 ATS last 11 games as a home favorite.
Under is 10-2 last 12 against a team with a winning SU record.
Key Injuries - None.
PROJECTED SCORE: 98 (Side of the Day)