Game of the day: Spurs at Suns Betting Preview
By Teddy Covers
Nasty Nash
Steve Nash was absolutely the difference maker in the Suns’ Game 1 win and cover over San Antonio. Nash scored 17 points in the first quarter alone, finishing the game with 33 points and ten assists.
“(Nash) ran it down our throat,” Spurs swingman Manu Ginobili said. “He started the game in scoring mode. Usually, he saves it for later.”
There were plenty of questions about Nash’s ability to control the game flow against San Antonio heading into the series. A hip injury against Portland had left Nash “dragging my leg around” but the three days off between series allowed Nash to rest up and heal.
“It’ll be a pleasure just to compete and fight every night in the series,” said Nash.
Greg Popovich matched up his premier defensive stopper, Bruce Bowen, on Nash in series past. But Bowen is retired now and the defensive matchups did not work for San Antonio in Game 1.
George Hill, the Spurs hero in their Round 1 series win over Dallas, was completely outclassed by Nash in the first half. Popovich switched Tony Parker onto Nash in the second half with similarly disappointing results for Spurs backers.
“He tried to dominate,” guard Jason Richardson said. “When he takes over the game like that, it gives us a lot of energy.”
Series dominance
San Antonio has one heck of a track record beating Nash and the Suns in the postseason.
The Spurs have beaten Phoenix four times in the playoffs since 2003. They’ve beaten Nash – both here in Phoenix and in his previous stop at Dallas – six times in his career. Nash has not been able to advance past San Antonio in the playoffs even once.
“I would like a couple of those games back from the years gone by,” Nash said, describing those past playoff disappointments. “I’d like for the suspensions to never happen, different things that seem to creep up every game. Ultimately, you respect your opponent, and it just motivates you to play better and reach a new level.”
This year, things have been noticeably different when these two teams have faced off against one another. Phoenix hung 116, 110 and 113 on San Antonio, covering the spread in all three regular season meetings while winning both home games against the Spurs by double-digit margins.
The Suns followed up their regular season success with a strong Game 1. Alvin Gentry’s squad posted 111 on the Spurs with a 52 percent shooting performance in Game 1, another win and its fourth consecutive pointspread cover against the Spurs this season.
Defense and totals
San Antonio has won four championships in the Tim Duncan era in large part because of their ability to play lockdown defense, both in transition and in the halfcourt.
The Spurs held Dallas to 90 points or less in all four of their playoff wins over the Mavs. In their last series win over Phoenix, back in 2008, the Spurs held the Suns to 95 points or less in regulation in all four of their victories.
This year, the Suns are playing defense at a different level than they’ve played it in years past.
“I think we’ve learned that (defense) can be fun. We enjoy locking a team down,” forward Grant Hill said. “With that being said, obviously we’re going against one of the best half-court executing teams, one of the best coaches out there. So we’re certainly going to be challenged, but I like where we are going into this series in terms of being prepared on both ends of the court.”
“I’ve had great offensive games against the Spurs, but I think now defensively is where we’ve taken that next step, and it’s all about the team,” added Amare Stoudamire who admits he’s playing defense for the first time in his career.
But Game 1 flew over the total and Game 2’s total is a half point higher than Game 1’s closing number. What gives? Suns head coach Alvin Gentry has the answer.
“We came in the mindset that we were going to push the basketball, and that if we pushed the basketball like we thought we could, Steve would get the ball to the basket,” he stated.
Role play
The Spurs put together two strong second half runs in Game 1. San Antonio outscored Phoenix 12-0 in the third quarter, briefly taking the lead. They also rallied back in the fourth quarter, turning a 14-point deficit into a one-point game with less than five minutes to play.
But San Antonio was not able to sustain either rally. The Spurs missed five crucial 3-pointers in the final four minutes and wound up just 4-for-19 from long range. Manu Ginobili shared his frustration concerning the aborted comeback.
“That’s really frustrating when that happens, especially the second time,” the Argentinean told reporters. “Against these guys, with the level of confidence they’re playing at, you just can’t blink.”
The Suns focused on shutting down San Antonio’s role players in Game 1. Ginobili, Tony Parker and Duncan combined for 73 points between them, making a total of 28 baskets while hitting 14 free throws. The entire remainder of the Spurs team made ten baskets and eight free throws.
“Usually when they add a fourth guy to the mix it makes them really tough to beat,” said Gentry of the gameplan to shut down the Spurs’ contributing pieces.
Popovich adjusted his normal player rotation in an effort to contain the Suns. He started Tony Parker in the second half, bringing George Hill off the bench. Keith Bogans got extended fourth-quarter minutes after he failed to score a single point in the series win over Dallas.
Key Spurs offseason acquisitions Richard Jefferson and Antonio McDyess sat on the bench during crunch time. Clearly, the second round of the playoffs is not the optimal time to adjust a playing time rotation that has been fairly settled in recent weeks.
Staying grounded
The Spurs have earned the Suns respect over the years, and every single quote from the Phoenix locker room reflects that assessment.
To a man, the Suns are well aware that San Antonio has a track record of comebacks. San Antonio lost Game 1 in Dallas two weeks ago, then responded by winning four of the next five to close out the series, including a crucial Game 2 upset win at Dallas.
“You can’t get too excited,” Stoudemire said. “They’re a team with a great pedigree that knows how to come back in a series.”
“It's going to be a long series,” confirmed Gentry.
Spurs at Suns, Game 2
By Brian Edwards
Gamblers only get one chance to cash tickets tonight with Game 2 of the San Antonio-Phoenix series serving as the lone NBA game on the board. The Suns drew first blood by virtue of Monday’s 111-102 win as 4 ½-point home favorites.
For Wednesday’s Game 2, Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Phoenix (59-30 straight up, 53-35-1 against the spread) as a four-point favorite with a total of 206 ½. As of early this morning, most books had adjusted the Suns to 2 ½-point ‘chalk’ with the total down to 205 or 205 ½. Bettors can take the Spurs to win outright for a plus-120 return (risk $100 to win $120).
San Antonio (54-35 SU, 47-40-2 ATS) also lost Game 1 in its first-round series against Dallas. However, in that instance, Gregg Popovich’s squad bounced back to win three in a row and eventually finish the Mavs in six games.
‘Pop’ and his staff need to find a remedy for defending Steve Nash, who went off in Game 1 to the tune of 33 points and 10 assists. Jason Richardson added 27 points and six rebounds, while Amare Stoudemire finished with 23 points and 13 boards.
“There’s no question that Spurs guard George Hill has to do a better job of covering Steve Nash,” said Mark Franco, who is No. 2 on VI (59%, +2450!) in the NBA this year. “Nash just lit Hill up in the opener.”
Franco continued, “But this is still a veteran San Antonio team and I fully expect Gregg Popovich to have his team better prepared on defense in Game 2.”
Back to Game 1, when Alvin Gentry’s squad raced out to a double-digit lead and led by 10 at intermission. San Antonio rallied into the lead at one point, only to see Phoenix get back ahead by a double-digit margin again. The Spurs wouldn’t go away, though, as Tony Parker led them back to within one with less than four minutes.
Nevertheless, bettors backing the Suns went to the window with a smile after another spurt to put the game away. The win improved Phoenix to 35-10 SU and 28-16-1 ATS.
Richardson’s stellar play was pivotal once again. When considering how monumental Richardson’s play was for Golden St. against Dallas a few years back, coupled with his production this year, and you have an explosive player who gets it done when it matters most.
“Richardson has been terrific for Phoenix” Franco added. “If the Suns continue to get exceptional play from him, they will go on to win this series and maybe even get to the NBA Finals.”
The Spurs will look to get even tonight, but they are just 22-23 SU and 21-24 ATS on the road.
The ‘over’ has prevailed in all four head-to-head meetings between these Western Conference rivals this year.
The ‘under’ is on a 6-1-1 run for the Spurs. For the season, they have watched the ‘under’ go 48-38-3 overall, 28-15-2 in their road assignments.
The ‘under’ has gone 47-39-3 overall for Phoenix, but it just 22-22-1 in its home outings.
Tip-off is scheduled for 9:05 p.m. Eastern on TNT.
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NBA News and Notes
Spurs lost three of their four road playoff games, losing by 6-22-9; Hill was -22 in Game 1, meaning San Antonio was +13 in 15:11 he was off floor. Parker scored 26 off bench for Spurs. Suns won last three home games by 29-19-9 points; Nash had 33 points, 10 assists; Richardson had 27, Stoudemire 20 in Game 1, as Phoenix shot 52% from the floor. Spurs were +5 in turnovers, took more foul shots, still lost opener.
Tips and Trends
San Antonio Spurs at Phoenix Suns
Spurs: San Antonio really struggled in Game 1 keeping the Suns from running, as the fast tempo was clearly what Phoenix was looking for. The Spurs allowed more than 100 PTS for only the 2nd time in their past 8 games. Since the Spurs couldn't control the tempo of Game 1, they were forced to play a style that doesn't ultimately fit them. To no surprise, San Antonio was playing from behind for the entire game. G Manu Ginobli played a complete game scoring a team high 27 PTS, along with a total of 14 rebounds, assists, and steals. Point guard Tony Parker scored 26 PTS while coming off the bench for the Spurs. Steady F Tim Duncan had 20 PTS and 11 rebounds to also assist the Spurs. Besides their own big three, no other player scored more than 9 PTS for the Spurs. Besides Parker, San Antonio only had 9 other points from their bench. San Antonio is 54-35 SU and 47-40-2 overall this season. The Spurs are 22-23 SU and 20-24-1 ATS on the road this year. The Spurs are 11-12 ATS as the listed underdog this season.
Spurs are 1-7 ATS last 8 playoff games as an underdog.
Under is 4-0 last 4 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
Key Injuries - None.
PROJECTED SCORE: 97
Suns (-2.5, O/U 205.5): Phoenix came out firing against their playoff rival, the San Antonio Spurs. Phoenix scored 31 PTS in the first quarter, and ultimately lead by 10 PTS at the half. The Suns won 3 of the 4 quarters in Game 1, losing only the 4th quarter by a single point. Phoenix scored more than 25 PTS in each quarter in beating the Spurs. Guards Steve Nash and Jason Richardson combined for 60 PTS, as they were very efficient making 23 of their 39 shot attempts. F Amar'e Stoudemire had 23 PTS and 13 rebounds in Game 1, continuing his overall dominance of the Spurs. Besides the big three, no other Suns player scored more than 7 PTS. The Suns 111 PTS was the first time in 5 games Phoenix scored 110 PTS or more. Phoenix is 59-30 SU and 53-35-1 ATS overall this season. The Suns are 35-10 SU and 27-16-2 ATS in home games this season. The Suns are 3-2 ATS as a favorite of 3 PTS or fewer this season. The Suns are 15-4 ATS against teams from the Southwest division.
Suns are 19-7 ATS last 26 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Over is 4-1 last 5 games as a home favorite.
Key Injuries - C Robin Lopez (back) is doubtful.
PROJECTED SCORE: 98 (UNDER - Total of the Day)