NBA Pacific Division: Preview and Win Total Picks
By DON THOMPSON
The Lakers rule the Pacific Division but there is plenty of room for improvement from the teams below them. Here's how we see the Pacific Division shaping up this season.
Los Angeles Lakers
2009-10 record: 57-25 straight up, 33-46-3 against the spread
2010-11 season win total: 56.5
The Los Angeles Lakers are the two-time defending champions and their obvious goal is to win another title. Although, many have already handed the Larry O’Brien Trophy to the Miami Heat after they signed LeBron James and Chris Bosh. Not so fast – the Lakers are still the “team’’ to beat.
It appears Phil Jackson will cut back on Kobe Bryant’s minutes. Bryant, 32, who had knee surgery over the summer, is entering his 15th season. Pau Gasol has become a real force on offense and will help keep the baskets coming at a high rate. With a supporting cast led by Lamar Odom, Ron Artest and Derek Fisher and depth featuring Shannon Brown, Matt Barnes and Theo Ratliff, the Lakers remain loaded. Oh, and don’t forget Andrew Bynum, who will likely be back around Thanksgiving as he recovers from surgery.
Be careful with the Lakers as a game-by-game betting proposition, as their 2009-10 ATS record indicates. Let’s get back to the big picture, though, which is another NBA championship, not a boatload of regular-season victories.
Pick: Under
Phoenix Suns
2009-10 record: 54-28 SU, 48-33-1 ATS
2010-11 season win total: 41.5
Amare Stoudemire left for New York via free agency and apparently a dozen wins went with him in his suitcase. Steve Nash, a two-time MVP who will turn 37 in February, is a proven winner – he has won 50 or more games in nine of the past 10 seasons. He will probably need to score more in order for the Suns to contend in the Western Conference.
Hedo Turkoglu’s arrival via trade from Toronto provides Phoenix with versatility, but how he handles being thrust into a new role as power forward will likely decide how far the Suns go. Phoenix had a gaudy ATS record last season. With a significantly lower projected win total this season, the oddsmakers seem to have lost confidence, so keep a close eye on the early season lines.
It took 50 wins to make the Western Conference playoffs in 2009-10, so if you think the Suns are postseason material – or even close – the over is an attractive play. Go ahead, thread the needle.
Pick: Over
Los Angeles Clippers
2009-10 record: 29-53 SU, 35-46-1 ATS
2010-11 season win total: 36.5
The Clippers are anxiously awaiting the debut of Blake Griffin – again. Griffin, who missed the 2009-10 season with a stress fracture in his patella, has served notice in the preseason (17.3 points, 12.3 rebounds per game) that he will be a strong Rookie of the Year candidate and a potential franchise player.
Point guard Baron Davis will be a huge factor in the Clippers’ success or failure – mentally and physically. A good start will be paramount to keep Davis’ head in the game and for the entire season. Chris Kaman is a solid center who averaged 18.5 points and 9.3 rebounds last season. With either Ryan Gomes or rookie Al-Farouq Aminu at small forward, the Clippers appear to have a solid frontcourt. Throw in guard Eric Gordon, who received valuable experience with Team USA over the summer, and the Clippers have a pretty good starting five.
New coach Vinny Del Negro should be able to get his young team to play hard for 82 games, which could very well result in a .500 season. And if you think a certain superstar might head west instead of east when he leaves Denver this season…
Pick: Over
Golden State Warriors
2009-10 record: 26-56 SU, 47-34-1 ATS
2010-11 season win total: 30.5
Golden State’s version of The Big Three – Stephen Curry, David Lee and Monta Ellis – might not make anyone think of talented trios in Miami or Boston. But for the Warriors, it’s a start. They combined to score 58 points last season, including Lee’s 15 points and 10 rebounds with the Knicks.
The big problem, though, for the Warriors will be on defense. They allowed a whopping 112 points per game last season. Ekpe Udoh, the sixth pick in the draft, was an outstanding shot blocker at Baylor and his defense will be desperately needed. However, he won’t be back on the court until January while recovering from a wrist injury.
Another big number from 2009-10 was Golden State’s ATS record, an amazing 21 wins higher than their SU total. Watch out as the Warriors’ opponents might not be laying as many points, early in the season anyway. It looks like Curry’s game will further develop, but there just isn’t enough depth and talent to think Golden State will improve much as a team.
Pick: Under
Sacramento Kings
2009-10 record: 25-57 overall, 39-39-4 against the spread
2010-11 season win total: 27.5
Potential is the word in Sacramento these days. In the Western Conference, though, the Kings will need a lot more than that to compete. It doesn’t mean they can’t be better, though.
Guard Tyreke Evans was the NBA Rookie of the Year and forward Omri Casspi also had a solid first season. If first-round draft pick DeMarcus Cousins has a solid work ethic, he could develop into an all-star center. Samuel Dalembert, who was acquired from the 76ers in the offseason, will provide defense in the pivot, but he could miss up to the first six weeks of the season with a groin injury. Carl Landry, who served as the sixth man with the Rockets last season but should start with the Kings, brings a much-needed offensive presence to the frontcourt.
Young teams tend to stay hungry, so look for the Kings to play hard all season under coach Paul Westphal and possibly flirt with .500.
Pick: Over