NBA Playoff Betting Preview - Western Conference
By Doug Upstone
In order to make the playoffs out West you had to win 50 games, something only four teams from the other conference could to. A number of NBA followers believe the Los Angeles Lakers are quite vulnerable in spite of +175 odds of being repeat champions and several teams played much better basketball to conclude the season, leaving the door ajar to speculation. Someone is still going to have knockoff Kobe and company four times to prove the Lakers are not worthy and outside of Lake-show fans, the detractors feel more than one squad is capable.
1. L.A. Lakers vs. (8) Oklahoma City
You would have thought the Clippers were getting the No. 1 seed in the West with all the negative talk about the Lakers. Los Angeles has been getting much the same reception as Whitney Houston's concert stops, nobody's impressed. Andrew Bynum is not healthy; Kobe Bryant is showing the affects of compounding injuries and his shooting has been off. Derek Fisher can still make big shots, but is having trouble guarding his own shadow and the trio of Lamar Odom, Ron Artest and Pau Gasol are noted "thinkers", not always bringing A-game when needed and wanted. The Lakers have been uninspired for over a month and are 6-10 ATS and have covered back-to-back spreads once since Feb. 11.
Oklahoma City is everything the Lakers are not, young, eager and lacking playoff experience. Phil Jackson lobbed the first salvo, wondering how the NBA's youngest scoring champ Kevin Durant gets to the line so frequently, insinuating preferential treatment from the zebras. (This from the same coach whose had Bryant and Michael Jordan during his career, I digress) But Durant took the bait and replied, professionally, yet made it more an issue by commenting. The Thunder are not all about Durant, as Russell Westbrook is among the top six point guards in the league and Thabo Sefolosha is undervalued within coach Scott Brooks schemes.
OKC did lose four of last six to draw the defending champs, however they won 50 games (48-34 ATS) and showed uncommon poise with 23-18 and 26-15 ATS road record. The Lakers won three of four, but in only meeting in 2010, the Thunder struck with 16-point shellacking at home over L.A. If the Lakers continue to play with indifference, this series will have some length to it and Ford Center faithful will be loud and proud for first taste postseason action.
Pick- L.A. Lakers (-800) in six over Oklahoma City (+500)
1. Dallas vs (7) San Antonio
This marks the fifth time the Mavericks and Spurs will square off in a Texas tussle in the playoffs with Tim Duncan and Dirk Nowitzki on opposite benches. Without Bruce Bowen, the animosity has subsided in the last couple of years between these division rivals, but that could heat up again in this series, considering what is at stake.
Dallas had the perfect opportunity to already be a NBA champion in 2006, but gagged a 2-0 lead in the finals against Miami, losing the next four contests. Since that time, owner Mark Cuban has been patient until this season, believing the pieces were in place for title run. This year he jettisoned players he felt were no longer committed to being champions like Josh Howard and retooled roster with the likes of Caron Butler and Brendon Haywood, giving them size and more scoring versatility. Here is what is troubling about the Mavs. Despite winning 55 games and being the second seed, their score differential is only +2.7, the lowest of the Western teams in the playoffs. Dallas is sixth (among West playoff teams) in home court record at 28-13 and they were 30th against the spread at home with 10-29-2 ATS mark.
San Antonio on the other hand manufactured (in the truest since) a 50-win campaign. This is no longer Tim Duncan's team, his aching knees and aging body are ineffective in back to back games and his post-moves are noticeably slower, not getting off shots like he used to and drawing fouls. That puts the ball in Tony Parker's hands, but he too has been on the shelf, which led to Manu Ginobili drinking from the fountain of youth and being the leading performer in the second half. The "Spurs way" is next man up and George Hill has been invaluable at guard. In a slower series, this could mean rookie DeJuan Blair could have a bigger impact for San Antonio squad that was 6.3 points better defensively after the All-Star break.
If ever a series had seven games written all over it, this is the one. Let's go with the upset picking San Antonio, with road team winning four times outright in this physical tight series that marks the end of Mavericks as we know them.
Pick- San Antonio (+135) in seven over Dallas (-165)
1. Phoenix vs. (6) Portland
For the NBA bettor who prefers to play a streak, Phoenix is the perfect team to match the group Power Station's 1985 hit "Some Like it Hot". The Suns closed the season 14-2 (11-4-1 ATS) and the two defeats were a five point loss at equally hungry Oklahoma City and failing to ignite at Milwaukee on the last night of four road games in five nights. Their last six wins have been pulverizing, winning by 13.8 points a game. Phoenix tried to move Amare Stoudemire before the All-Star game, but couldn't find the right compensation. This ended up being the reason the Suns had the best record in the NBA at 23-6 (20-8-1) after the break. Stoudemire was the second half MVP and he and Nash resembled Stockton and Malone running the pick and roll whenever they needed points. Phoenix still runs high-octane offense (110.2 PPG) but plays enough defense (11th in field goal percentage) and has solid core of frontcourt role players who do their job expertly.
It's unfortunate, a visit this past week to Dictionary.com to look up the word "snake-bit" revealed a picture, that of the Portland Trailblazers. Greg Oden, Joel Przybilla and now Brandon Roy are all lost due to injury. Portland's one chance is to control the action in the frontcourt and lane area with Marcus Camby and LaMarcus Aldridge. If they can maintain a steady flow of points near the bucket, that creates space for Rudy Fernandez, Martell Webster and Nicolas Batum among others. The Trailblazers do have depth and were 25-14-2 ATS on the road.
With Roy, this could have been one of the most entertaining first round matchups as Portland had taken four out five, however with the way Phoenix is playing and the Blazers without their best player, chances of upset are greatly diminished. One should not expect Portland to roll over like a dog, they can run with the Suns in short stretches and will look to frustrate Nash with ball pressure and control tempo.
Pick- Phoenix (-600) in six over Portland (+400)
1. Denver vs (5) Utah
It took 82 games to determine who would be the Northwest Division titlist, with Denver backing in on the last day, as Utah lost at home to the Suns. It will take no more than seven games to figure who has the best team and which is good enough to advance to West semis in this rare postseason confrontation. (Last meeting was 16 years ago)
The Nuggets have been meandering without George Karl on the bench, 6-7 (3-9-1 ATS) in last 13 contests. Denver was third in the NBA in scoring at 106.5 points per game, yet has been held to under 100 points in 11 of previous 15 outings. The Nuggets front office came out at the conclusion of the season and complimented interim coach Adrian Dantley for his fine work, but Denver looks soul-less without Karl calling the shots. Denver is 13-3 ATS the last two years in the playoffs and they continue that streak if Carmelo Anthony and Chauncey Billups exhibit leadership and the bench outplays Utah's.
The Jazz have two components that will seal their fate either way. Andrei Kirilenko missed final nine regular season games with a calf injury and he is the only Utah player on the roster capable of making life difficult for Carmelo. Carlos Boozer's fascinating array of moves and shots is predicated on health and his ribs are sore, which could cut his effectiveness. That leaves Deron Williams to carry even a greater amount of the load. He has an outstanding command of the Jerry Sloan's motion offense and the ball distribution means Williams has to set the offense, not be the main scoring threat.
Utah is 32-9 (26-13-2 ATS) in Salt Lake City and 23-17-1 ATS on the road, but falling from potential No. 2 seed to No. 5, losing home court advantage will prove to be too much for unhealthy club that is 1-5 and 1-4-1 ATS in Denver.
Pick- Denver (-200) in seven over Utah (+160)