NBA Playoff Outlook
By The Gold Sheet
Now, the fun begins!
The NBA playoffs begin later this week, with a similar cast of featured characters. Lakers. Cavs. Magic. Celtics. But are there any other teams ready to crash the postseason party and give Ernie Johnson, Charles Barkley, and Kenny Smith something new and interesting to talk about in the TNT studios?
We can say for sure that the West doesn't appear to be as top- heavy as it looked at this time a year ago. With the Lakers floundering down the stretch and looking a lot more vulnerable than when entering the playoffs the past two seasons, the West certainly has a wide-open look that might more resemble the NHL's Stanley Cup playoffs, where the home-ice advantage is often minimized and upsets occur regularly. We don't quite see the same up-for-grabs scenario in the East, although Cleveland's status as a prohibitive favorite is likely to be challenged once again, as it was a year ago, by Orlando. Unlike last season, however, the Cavs do enter the postseason with the home-court edge as long as they stay alive, all of the way through the Finals, so at this stage they loom as the definite team to beat.
Our following "handicap" of the NBA playoff picture is accompanied by odds ( ) to win each conference championship, listed first, followed by odds to win the NBA title, all kindly provided by SPORTSBETTING.com.
Enjoy!
EASTERN CONFERENCE
As a year ago, we' But might there be a longshot or two worth considering, and a possible first-round upset on the horizon?
TEAM TO BEAT: We wouldn't get too worried about the Cleveland Cavaliers (1/3 to win the East; 3/2 to win the NBA crown) just because of recent losses to the Bulls, Pacers, and Magic. Mike Brown has been resting LeBron James, and Shaquille O'Neal did not play, either, as he continues to rehab his thumb from that late-February injury. Strangely, however, we think Shaq's status might be the most important factor for the Cavs this postseason, as his acquisition was GM Danny Ferry's biggest move of the offseason, designed to give Cleveland a better chance to control Orlando's Dwight Howard, who proved too much for the Cavs' frontline during last year's East Finals. It's worth noting that the Cavs kept Howard in relative check during the first two regular-season meetings, both won by Cleveland, and without Shaq to worry about, Howard was dominating with 22 points and 13 rebounds in Sunday's Orlando win. O'Neal's absence has allowed Brown to develop a bit more depth in the paint (J.J. Hickson in particular), and the reacquisition of C Zydrunas Ilgauskas should give Cleveland enough depth on the blocks to better deal with Howard this season. And most observers believe the additions of Antawn Jamison (who can take a bit of the scoring load off LeBron) at the trade deadline and 6'8 Jamario Moon (solid defense) have the Cavs built a bit better for a deep postseason run than a year ago...if, that is, Shaq is ready to go. At full strength, the Cavs remains a solid favorite to break the city of Cleveland's title drought that extends all of the way to 1964, when the Browns beat the Colts 27-0 to win that year's NFL crown. Still, not much value in that price to back the Cavs in the East, although if you fancy Cleveland to win the NBA title, you might not get a much better price on the Cavs winning the whole thing over the next two months than the current pricea on the board.
TOP CONTENDER: A lot of observers believe the East will once again come down to a showdown between the Cavs and Orlando Magic (5/2; 5/1). And entering the postseason, Orlando seems to be playing as well as anybody (21-5 SU its last 26 thru April 11), with Stan Van Gundy not easing up on his troops in the final week (at least through the Cleveland game on Sunday) as he tries to get his troops hitting the postseason at top speed, as well as possibly catching and passing the Lakers for what could eventually be home-court edge in a Finals rematch. The Magic have a slightly different look than they did at this time a year ago; for one, unlike last season, PG Jameer Nelson is available and running the show from the backcourt, while ex-Dookie J.J. Redick has been a bit more useful than in previous seasons. We'll see if the offseason moves that allowed Hedo Turkoglu to walk and Vince Carter to come on board pay off, although the performance of Rashard Lewis (who tends to blow a bit hot and cold) figures to be one of the most important pieces in the Orlando postseason puzzle. Playoff matchups should be watched closely, especially in the second round, where Orlando would probably rather have a go at Atlanta (which it beat three of four this season, dominating in those three wins) than Miami, which beat the Magic the first three meetings prior to the Wednesday night regular-season finale. Still, the Magic appear to be on another collision course with the Cavs, and we know that Orlando certainly has no fear of Cleveland, especially since it has won at "The Q" on multiple occasions since last season. We think there's a bit better value in the available prices to back the Magic in the East than the Cavs, and if you really think Orlando can repeat its conference title, the current East prices are going to be a lot better for Orlando than waiting until the eve of a possible rematch with LeBron & Co.
WORTH A LOOK? Considering their savvy veteran core of Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett, and Ray Allen, we're not going to dismiss the Boston Celtics (5/1; 8/1) just yet, but we're hardly bullish on Boston's chances, either. Remember, the Celtics toyed with the idea of moving Allen at the trade deadline, and the odds of keeping all three (especially the fragile Garnett, rested recently by HC Doc Rivers and still careful about his recurring right knee problems) healthy through the postseason might be remote. Moreover, Rasheed Wallace has not proven the spark most envisioned, especially with his once-lethal 3-point shooting laboring in the 28% range. The Celtics have hardly looked like title contenders in recent weeks, either, dropping 5 of their last 8 SU thru April 11, and appear likely to slip into the 4th spot in the East playoff queue and a possible tricky first-round date vs. Dwyane Wade and the Miami Heat (25/1; 60/1). Indeed, the Heat offer the only prices that really get us excited in the East, given the presence of a difference-maker such as Wade and their established credentials against Orlando (although if Miami ends up in the fifth East slot, it would almost assuredly have to get through Cleveland in the second round before getting a crack at the Magic). Wade gave Heat fans a temporary scare when apparently injuring his wrist on Sunday vs. the Knicks, but waved off any subsequent X-rays, so it doesn't appear to be a serious situation. And with seven straight road wins thru April 11, and allowing foes to crack the century mark just once since March 6, the Heat appear to be peaking at just the right time, and playing the sort of defense that indicates they can stick around longer in the postseason than a year ago, when they were eliminated in the first round by the Atlanta Hawks (8/1; 20/1).
Speaking of Mike Woodson's crew, it has at times appeared ready to join the elite class this season, and this season's addition of sixth-man deluxe Jamal Crawford has added an extra dimension that was missing a year ago. Matchups, however, figure to have a lot to do with the postseason progress of the Hawks, who have not been able to solve Cleveland (which swept the regular-season series after similarly dominating Atlanta in the second round of the playoffs last spring) or Orlando, as Dwight Howard has proven very difficult for the Hawks to contain. The most favorable Atlanta matchup would come against Boston, which the Hawks swept this season, but that is also an unlikely confrontation since it couldn't occur until the conference Finals, with the Magic and Cavs having to have been dismissed previously. Not likely, which is why we think the available prices on the Heat are a lot more tempting and at least perhaps worth a flyer; we just don't see a lot of value in the available prices with Atlanta.
LONGSHOTS: There's nobody else in the East that figures to make much noise in the postseason. That wasn't necessarily the case a few weeks ago, but with the recent elbow and hand injuries suffered by C Andrew Bogut that will keep him out of the postseason, the Milwaukee Bucks (35/1; 80/1) are simply not a complete team at the moment, confirmed by last week's 105-90 loss at Boston. Which is a bit of a shame, because Scott Skiles' troops were a revelation during the second half of the season, with the recipe augmented by additions of John Salmons (who took the injured Michael Redd's place at the trade deadline) and glue-guy Jerry Stackhouse adding winning ingredients to the Bucks mix that also includes explosive rookie G Brandon Jennings. Skiles also has Milwaukee playing defense, but without Bogut's post presence, the Bucks do not figure to last long in the second season. Indeed, the Charlotte Bobcats (50/1; 80/1) look a bit more menacing at the moment, having won 15 of their last 21 thru April 11 to qualify for their first-ever playoff berth. But despite their improved play and usually-sound defense, the Bobcats won only 12 of their first 40 road games, hardly an indicator of a deep postseason run. Larry Brown's team also lost 3 of 4 vs. likely first-round foe Orlando (although the Bobcats did win once at Amway Arena), and Stephen Jackson, though available, has been playing through a myriad of injuries in recent weeks. A tense back-and-forth battle in recent weeks between the Chicago Bulls (50/1; 100/1) and Toronto Raptors (50/1; 100/1) for the 8th and last East playoff slot appears to be leaning toward the Bulls after their Sunday win at Air Canada Centre, but with a first-round date vs. Cleveland for the survivor, the fun doesn't figure to last long. Especially for Toronto, which would likely be minus star C Chris Bosh (broken face) in the first round. Chicago might offer a bit more resistance, as the Bulls did beat the Cavs two of four meetings this season (the latest when LeBron sat last Thursday at United Center), have gotten a bit healthier with Luol Deng returning to action along with Joakom Noah in recent weeks, and remember that the Bulls did push Boston in a memorable 7-game first-round set a year ago. But even our underdog-loving side can't move us to recommend wasting any dollars on investmenets in either the Bulls or Raptors.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
The serious chase for playoff berths in the West actually ended about a month ago, as we knew by mid-March which conference teams were going to be involved in the postseason. Where most end up slotted, however, will probably not be determined until the close of regular-season action on Wednesday night, although it seems fairly certain that Portland, San Antonio, and Oklahoma City likely end up seeded 6th thru 8th (in any order), with Denver, Dallas, Phoenix, and Utah all jockeying for positions 2 thru 5. Stay tuned.
TEAM TO BEAT: The road through the West still goes through the Staples Center, where the L.A. Lakers (5/9; 7/4) are looking for back-to-back NBA crowns and a third straight trip to the Finals. But don't expect this to be a relatively smooth ride like a year ago; the Lake Show has been blowing hot and cold since the All-Star break, with problems seemingly compounding as the playoffs approach. Over the past week, the Lakers have lost games they were sincerely trying to win vs. potential playoff opponents San Antonio, Denver, and Portland. Kobe Bryant has not looked like himself for a while, with perhaps the extra wear and tear of the past two years (a couple of trips to the Finals plus an Olympics for good measure) contributing to a noticeable lack of the normal Kobe explosiveness in recent weeks, not to mention a distracting finger injury that has impacted his shooting stroke. Indeed, nagging injuries have been a season-long problem for the team; key reserve Luke Walton has just returned to the fold, but C Andrew Bynum is going to hit the playoffs cold after missing almost a month with an Achilles tendon problem. The jury also remains out on the offseason addition of Ron Artest, whose contributions have been spotty and whom many believe had another agenda anyway for wanting to join L.A. (did anyone notice Artest will soon be starring in a new reality TV show?). And Derek Fisher's defensive liabilities against bigger Gs such as Chauncey Billups are becoming harder and harder for Phil Jackson to camouflage. Other observers have noted the offense slipping further and further from its time-tested "triangle" principles, which might have something to do with the fact Jackson no longer has longtime sidekick and triangle guru Tex Winter to help on the sidelines. The Lakers' indifferent form has endured too long to be considered a simple trendless fluctuation; this team has now played in fits and spurts for almost two months, hardly the sort of form that suggest a deep playoff run is imminent. Although they have homecourt edge thru the West portion of the playoffs, we hardly think the Lakers are guaranteed to get back to the Finals, and it goes without saying that we would not recommend them at the prohibitive prices listed.
WORTH A LOOK?: Unlike a year ago, when only Denver and perhaps Portland loomed as serious challengers to the Lakers in the West (although Houston did surprisingly push L.A. to 7 games in the second round), there are no shortage of potential conference contenders this postseason. Indeed, every West playoff team owns a win over the Lake Show this campaign. But we think the most-dangerous contenders in the West at the moment might be the Phoenix Suns (11/1; 25/1) and San Antonio Spurs (10/1; 20/1). Phoenix has arguably been the West's hottest team since late January, and still retains enough of its explosive offensive nucleus (G Steve Nash and FA-motivated F Amar'e Stoudemire in particular) from the Mike D'Antoni years to give it a puncher's chance vs. anybody. Moreover, Alvin Gentry seems to have instilled a bit better defensive mindset into this year's Suns, who have also proven adept at grinding out wins on occasion this season. Meanwhile, after a season of navigating one injury after another, San Antonio looks to be hitting the postseason relatively healthy, as Tony Parker has returned from his broken finger, George Hill from a recent ankle sprain, and Manu Ginobili from his latest malady (a balky back) that had kept him out of the lineup until a few weeks ago. A healthy San Antonio is enough to put a scare into any potential playoff foe, the Lakers included, because the Tim Duncan-Parker-Ginobili axis has helped Gregg Popovich wins NBA titles before, and if all are indeed healthy, the Spurs might be the most intriguing playoff longshot in either conference. Both Phoenix and San Antonio are certainly "live" at the listed prices to take the West, and it wouldn't be a terrible walk on the wild side to consider those juicy title prices, either.
DON'T DISMISS: Certainly, the Denver Nuggets (11/2; 10/1) will not fear the Lakers after beating L.A. in three of four meetings this season, including last Thursday at Pepsi Center (although Kobe Bryant missed that encounter due to his finger injury). And the recent return of PF Kenyon Martin from knee problems means that Denver looks to be hitting the postseason in something of a healthy state. But the Nuggets have really not looked the same since HC George Karl was forced to take a leave of absence to deal with his cancer treatments, and the date of Karl's return continues to be pushed back. With the team performing in an erratic manner (just 7-7 SU its last 14 thru April 11) under interim HC Adrian Dantley, Denver could be vulnerable to an early-round surprise.
The Utah Jazz (6/1; 15/1) might figure as a more menacing postseason threat if Jerry Sloan's team can a) at least get home court edge in the first round and b) get frontliners Mehmut Okur (left Achilles tendinitis) and Andrei Kirilenko (strained left calf, missing 13 of the last 15 games thru April 12) on the court and contributing. Dealing with those maladies, Utah has cooled a bit the past month and a half (16-9 SU last 25 thru April 12) after previously winning 17 of 19, but a healthy Jazz would be cause for concern, especially with Paul Millsap having emerged as a force along with stalwarts Deron Williams & Carlos Boozer. We're also rather intrigued by the Portland Trail Blazers (10/1; 35/1), especially after their weekend win over the Lakers. The trade deadline acquisition of Marcus Camby from the Clippers was a shrewd move, replenishing the Blazers' injury-riddled post position and giving HC Nate McMillan a better chance to deal with some of the more-formidable "bigs" in the West such as Andrew Bynum, Nene, and Tim Duncan. But there's one asterisk attached to Portland, on a 17-5 SU run after Sunday's win at Staples Center; explosive swingman Brandon Roy continues to be bothered by back and knee problems, and was forced to miss the second half of Sunday's win over the Lakers. Without Roy at or near 100%, the Blazers likely don't last beyond the first round, but if Roy is good to go, even the Lakers, who have had their problems in recent years at the Rose Garden, could be in for scrap.
Maybe we should be a bit more fearful of the Dallas Mavericks (5/1; 10/1), who appear the most likely to emerge as the number two seed in the conference, which would give them home-court edge against anyone except the Lakers in the West. The current Dallas version has a bit meaner look than past editions as well, especially after becoming a bit bigger and badder at the trade deadline by adding Brendan Haywood, Caron Butler, and DeShawn Stevenson to the mix; the Mavs are now more likely to grind out wins than at any time in recent memory. Dallas, however, has been a bit more vulnerable at home than either the Nuggets, Jazz, or Blazers, and Jason Kidd's hard-to-disguise defensive liabilities could really haunt Rick Carlisle's team in the postseason. Although it is hard to pick any of the non-Laker West contenders above the Mavs at this stage, the available prices on Dallas are hardly enticing. Comparably speaking, we just think there more price value backing either the Suns and Spurs than the Mavs.
LONGSHOTS: Since we're giving almost every entry in the West a look, someone has to be considered something of an outsider, no? The postseason rites of passage suggest the young Oklahoma City Thunder (15/1; 40/1) are likely to use the upcoming playoffs as a learning experience as they build into a serious contender in upcoming seasons. The presence of league high-scorer Kevin Durant (30.1 ppg) and a frisky lineup featuring a few other interesting parts (F Jeff Green, G Russell Westbrook, and 6'7 defensive ace Thabo Sefolosha) could cause problems for some foes, and we'd be remiss if not pointing out the Thunder's season-long overachieving ways as a road underdog (17-7 vs. line in role). But the franchise hasn't been to the playoffs since it was based in Seattle in 2005, and with the roster completely turned over since, this is going to be a new experience for Ok City, which probably lacks the frontline muscle or depth to make a serious run...at least until next season.
BEST PRICES WORTH A LOOK: Miami, San Antonio, and Phoenix. Stay tuned!