NBA Playoff Preview
The Gold Sheet
Now, the real season begins!
The NBA playoffs begin later this week, and with the postseason participants finally decided, we can begin to scope the upcoming action.
We’re hard-pressed to remember a season as top-heavy as the current one. Each conference features a prohibitively-favored team (Cleveland in the East, the L.A. Lakers in the West) priced under even-money to reach the Finals. Although upsets can happen (remember, it was just two years ago that 8th-seeded Golden State ousted top-seeded Dallas, which recorded a 67-15 regular-season record, in the first round in the West bracket), the NBA Playoffs aren’t like the NHL’s Stanley Cup, where home-ice advantage often means little. Homecourt edge is often decisive in the eventual winners of NBA playoff matchups, and it’s worth noting that the home team won every game in the first two rounds of Boston’s title run a year ago, when both the Hawks and Cavs held serve at home and forced the Celtics into Game 7 showdowns before advancing to the next round.
Our following "handicap" of the NBA playoff picture is accompanied by odds ( ) to win each conference championship, listed first, followed by odds to win the NBA title, all kindly provided by Bodoglife.com. Enjoy!
EASTERN CONFERENCE
TEAM TO BEAT: Cleveland (to win East 4/7; to win NBA 7/5) sent its latest warning shot to the rest of the East in Sunday’s 107-76 demolition of Boston. Granted, Kevin Garnett wasn’t available for the Celtics, but it’s unlikely even a healthy K-G (which we might not see in the postseason) could have made much difference on Sunday. And it’s worth noting that LeBron James & Co. are on the verge of equaling Larry Bird’s 1985-86 Celtics for the best-ever home record in regular-season play (40-1) if the Cavs beat Philadelphia on Wednesday night. Possible first-round opponent Detroit used to be a thorny foe for Cleveland, but not as much lately after the Cavs won the last three meetings, holding the Pistons to 80 or fewer in each of those results. “Totals” fans might find it interesting that the last seven games of that series have all gone “under” as well. The bigger question is if there is any value in the Cavs’ prohibitive price to win the East; at 4/7, we have trouble getting too excited about a recommendation. The 7/5 price to win the whole thing looks a bit more appealing, although to win it all Cleveland is likely going to have to get by the Lakers, the only team to win at the “Q” this season and 2-0 vs. the Cavs overall in ‘08-09. We’d rather wait and see how the overall odds change as the playoffs progress before recommending Cleveland at such prohibitive prices.
TOP CONTENDERS: A couple of weeks ago, it would have been easy to identify both Boston (2/1; 4/1) and Orlando (17/4; 8/1) as the top potential threats to Cleveland in the East. Now, we’re not so sure. Garnett’s aforementioned knee woes are an ongoing concern for Doc Rivers, forcing him to shut K-G down in the last week. Garnett is supposed to be scheduled for a return to action in Wednesday’s regular-season finale vs. the Wizards, but we’ll see what transpires. Without a healthy Garnett, we don’t think the Celtics can repeat, although it’s worth noting that Boston did beat the Cavs twice at TD Banknorth Garden this season. As for the Magic, Stan Van Gundy’s team has been floundering, with 4 losses in its last 7 thru April 12 relegating it to the third slot in the East playoff queue. Although the Magic appeared to weather the absence of PG Jameer Nelson after acquiring Rafer Alston from Houston at the trade deadline, depth has been a concern for the Magic in recent weeks, perhaps even more so now if the ankle injury suffered by Hedo Turkoglu Saturday at New Jersey is deemed serious. Dwight Howard couldn’t carry Orlando further than the second round a year ago, and probably won’t this season, either. Of the prices offered on the Celtics and Magic, the one that still might interest us is Boston to win the title at 4/1. Should Garnett return at something close to 100%, Boston would at least rate a puncher’s chance against LeBron & Co, and if successful vs. the Cavs would rate a better chance than that vs. any Western foe (including the Lakers) in the finale. A stab on Boston at 4/1 to win it all isn’t the best recommendation on the board, but it’s better than anything else we see with the Celtics and Magic right now.
DARKHORSES: We might keep our eyes on a couple of teams here, specifically whichever emerges from the 4-5 battle in the first round featuring Atlanta (25/1; 50/1) and Miami (20/1; 50/1). The Hawks have been a bit back-and-forth in recent weeks, although the return of PF Marvin Williams from injury last Friday vs. Indiana puts Mike Woodson’s team close to full-strength for the playoffs. Remember, the Hawks grew up in last year’s first round when pushing Boston to 7 games, and vet Mike Bibby’s presence in the backcourt remains a plus in the postseason. Atlanta also gets homecourt advantage in the first round for the first time in 10 years, and facing the Heat promises to be entertaining. For Miami, Dwyane Wade has been posting MVP-like numbers since New Year’s, but the bigger concern for HC Erik Spoelstra will be to keep his frontline healthy. Jermaine O’Neal has been touch-and-go the last week with a strained calf, and his alck of mobility had already limited him to duty at the “5” spot and not much else. Meanwhile, forwards Udonis Haslem (stitches on thumb) and Jamario Moon (groin) have been day-to-day, although that has allowed rookie Michael Beasley to start the last two games thru April 13, and while his defense remains a work in progress, he’s scored 25.7 ppg and hauled in 12.8 rpg in those outings. The presence of Wade, Beasley’s upside, and the hope of a healthy frontline might give the Heat a better chance to advance further than the Hawks, but we’re also not convinced Miami gets by Atlanta in the first round. Still, Miami at 20/1 to win the East might be worth a flyer, as well as the 50/1 price to win the whole thing. We have seen far less able teams at those sorts of prices in the past.
LONGSHOTS: Given that the rest of the playoff entries in the East have to face the “big three” in the first round, we’re not high on the chances of either Philadelphia (25/1; 60/1), Chicago (50/1; 100/1), or Detroit (25/1; 75/1) to advance very far. Orlando’s recent struggles suggest that the Magic might be vulnerable in the opening round, but we’re not sure any from among the Sixers, bulls, or Pistons are up to it. Philly has hit the skids since wrapping up a postseason slot, losing five straight thru April 13, with its defense taking a vacation in the process (Sixers allowing 108.3 ppg their last four). It didn’t seem as if the absence of PF Thaddeus Young should be a huge problem, but there’s no mistaking Philly’s decline since Young (who likely returns for the playoffs) went down. As for the Pistons, they indeed have vast playoff experience, but the team has a dysfunctional look about it these days, with Allen Iverson and his back problem (not to mention his complaining) now out for the duration, and Rasheed Wallace always another technical foul away from another 1-game suspension after getting “T’d” 16 times on the season. Performances suggest, however, that A.I.’s absence might not be a negative, although losing Wallace for any period would be harder to overcome. Remember, too, that no coach has seemed to push the buttons quite like Larry Brown, who’s now two coaches removed (Flip Saunders and Michael Curry) from the situation at Auburn Hills. Curry says he’ll use a nine-man rotation in the playoffs, and is hoping that late-season sparkplug G Will Bynum provides a lift, but the Pistons don’t figure to last long, especially since they really haven’t had much of a homecourt edge at the palace this season. A bit more intriguing are the Bulls, who have at least made the United Center something of a fortress since the All-Star break (14-1 SU at home since), although they still struggle mightily on the road. But with wins in 12 of their last 15 thru April 14, and the lineup having more dimensions since the trade deadline acquisition of John Salmons from Sacramento, the Bulls at least look as if they could be in a better position to cause some trouble in the opening round than either Philly or Detroit. But we’re not going to go crazy and recommend taking a flyer on any of the last three East qualifiers to get to the Finals.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
TEAM TO BEAT: Unlike recent seasons, when the West was loaded, it really isn’t his season. The L.A. Lakers (4/9; 8/5) are a prohibitive choice to make the Finals for the second year running, and for good reason, especially with C Andrew Bynum now back in the fold after missing nearly 2½ months with a knee injury. Bynum looked ready to go in his comeback game last Thursday vs. Denver, and the pieces are definitely in place for Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol & Co. to make another deep run. But with such a premium on those prices, there just isn’t enough value to get us terribly interested in a Laker recommendation, at least at the moment.
WORTH A LOOK: There are two West teams, however, that we might not want to dismiss. The first would be Portland (14/1; 25/1), a new emerging force in the league and also completely unafraid of the Lakers after extending its recent Rose Garden win streak over the Lake Show to 8 in a row after last Friday’s 106-98 win that might have uncovered a few cracks in L.A.’s foundation. As spectacular as Kobe Bryant is, he is also capable of shooting L.A. out of a game, and no one on the roster seems comfy in stepping up in a featured role in crunch time on the nights Kobe is cold (but invariably keeps firing away). Bryant also has to work hard on the defensive end against Portland when matched against Brandon Roy, and the emergence of LaMarcus Aldridge as a significant force in the paint (indeed, he’s what the Blazers thought Greg Oden would become) had added another interesting dimension to Nate McMillan’s squad. The Blazers are the only West team we can envision giving the Lakers a tussle, but we’d be a little more bullish on Portland’s chances if we were sure the Blazers at least had earned homecourt edge vs. someone (likely Houston or San Antonio) in the first round before having a chance to hit Phil Jackson’s bunch. Meanwhile, Houston (10/1; 20/1) has been given a bit more respect than Portland by the oddsmakers, although the Rockets are going to have to keep an eye on Yao Ming’s foot injury that has kept him out of recent action. Yao’s backup, 42-year-old Dikembe Mutombo, can only provide short-term relief these days. The Rockets, however, haven’t missed Tracy McGrady, recording a 21-7 SU mark since T-Mac went down with a knee injury and Ron Artest took his spot in the starting lineup. Artest’s defense is better than McGrady’s by a mile, and he’s even scoring more than T-Mac was this season, so the McGrady injury is essentially a non-factor for Houston. Yao Ming’s foot problems, however, are another matter. Nonetheless, we prefer Portland’s prices, especially since the Blazers seem to have a real puncher’s chance if it meeting the Lakers, so we’d take a hard look at that 14/1 price on Portland winning the conference. That might even be the best value we see on the entire “futures” playoff board.
LONGSHOTS: By process of elimination, we think most of the remaining Western teams can be dismissed as serious playoff threats. San Antonio (10/1; 20/1) has the experience, but will be likely too compromised by Manu Ginobili’s absence to make a serious run at the Lakers. Tim Duncan’s sore knees are another concern. Similarly, New Orleans (16/1;30/1) could be shorthanded if C Tyson Chandler can’t return from the ankle problems that have kept him out over a month. Minus Chandler, the Hornets have fallen from a position where they would have had homecourt edge in the first round, now unlikely to gain homecourt in the postseason. Utah’s (12/1; 25/1) late fade and inability to win on the road suggests the Jazz are due for an early exit, especially if they have to face the Lakers in the first round. Denver (10/1; 20/1) is likely going to earn the second playoff seed in the confernece, and George Karl’s troops have bene playing very well the last month. But we simply cannot envision the Nuggets getting by the Lakers, who have won 10 of the last 11 in the series and issued a statement of sorts in last Thursday’s 116-102 over Denver at Staples Center in Bynum’s comeback game. Someone else is going to have to beat the Lake Show, because we can’t see Denver doing it, although if the Lakers do slip elsewhere on a banana peel, the Nuggets likely become the team to beat in the West. Similarly, despite a nice rally down the stretch, we don’t see Dallas (30/1; 60/1) having much hope against the Lakers, although it’s not inconceivable that Dirk Nowitzki and the Mavs could win a first-round series if facing anyone other than than L.A. But we don’t think any of the above-listed teams, save perhaps Denver, warrants even a flyer, although the Nuggets, as mentioned, move to the front of the West queue if the Lakers are KO’d by someone else (Portland, maybe?).
BEST PRICES WORTH A LOOK: Miami and Portland. Stay tuned!