NBA Playoffs Betting Cheat Sheet
By Ricky Dimon
The 2011 NBA playoffs get rolling this weekend, so it’s time to take a look at the report card heading into what will certainly be plenty of wild hoops action. Who’s hot? Who’s not? Who’s in danger of becoming a first-round upset victim? Let’s try to sort it out.
Hot: Chicago Bulls
The Bulls aren’t just the hottest team in the NBA right now. They’ve been the hottest team almost non-stop since December. Chicago has won nine in a row going into the playoffs (4-5 ATS) and 21 of its last 23 games (14-9 ATS).
And it’s not like the Bulls are beating up on puffcakes. In that 23-game stretch they won at Orlando (twice), at Miami, at New York, massacred Atlanta twice, and destroyed Boston. Derrick Rose and company not only ran away with the Eastern Conference’s top seed, but they also blew past San Antonio in improbable fashion for the NBA’s best record.
Cold: Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks were awful in last season’s playoffs, needing seven games to fight off an underdog and undermanned Milwaukee team in Round 1 before getting swept by Orlando in the most lopsided four-game postseason series in the history of the NBA.
This time around, the Hawks have been awful heading into the playoffs and haven’t provided any reason to think a series with the Magic will be much different in 2011. Atlanta rode a six-game losing streak to wrap up its regular season (1-5 ATS), a stretch that included a 115-83 loss at Washington last Saturday and a 96-85 setback at Charlotte Wednesday.
Surprise: Denver Nuggets
It would not be wise to discount the Nuggets, because discounted is exactly what they were when they dealt Carmelo Anthony just before February’s trade deadline. Instead, Denver laughed in the face of its doubters and actually got better without ‘Melo.
The Nuggets went 18-7 post-trade (20-4-1 ATS) after being a modest 32-25 when they pulled the trigger and shipped Melo to New York. Furthermore, by playing its way up to the No. 5 seed, George Karl’s crew has avoided both L.A. and San Antonio and has a manageable first-round series with Oklahoma City.
A word of caution on the Nuggets: Arron Afflalo (hamstring), Danilo Gallinari (ankle), Nene (groin), and Ty Lawson (ankle) are all dealing with injuries. The first three were held out of Wednesday’s loss to the Jazz as a precautionary measure and they are expected to play in Game 1 on Sunday. Lawson’s left ankle is more serious; he sprained it against Utah and is questionable for Game 1.
Home cooking: San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs were damn good pretty much wherever they played this season (although not quite good enough to beat out Chicago for the league’s best record). But they were especially dominant at the AT&T Center. San Antonio finished 36-5 at home (tied with the Bulls and at least three games clear of everyone else).
With home-court advantage throughout the Western Conference playoffs, it could be curtains for all other contenders if the Spurs get off-the-charts hot at home like they did during the regular season. They won 22 straight at the AT&T Center during one stretch, refusing to lose a game between December 3 and March 6.
On a side note, the Spurs might rely on home court even more with shooting guard Manu Ginobili nursing an injured elbow. Ginobili hyper-extended his elbow early into Wednesday’s game with the Phoenix Suns, leaving many to question why coach Gregg Popovich would play his starters. X-rays at the stadium were negative and his status is pending an MRI exam Thursday.
Road warriors: Miami Heat
LeBron James took his talents to South Beach, and the Heat promptly took their talents away from South Beach.
Despite having a bullseye on its back every single time it went into an opponent’s stadium, Miami delivered an impressive 28-13 road record, tied for best in the NBA with Dallas. Erik Spoelstra’s squad won seven of its last eight games away from AmericanAirlines Arena, including its final two of the regular season against Atlanta and Toronto.
Banged up: Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers got a major scare when oft-injured center Andrew Bynum went down with a hyper-extended knee in Tuesday’s win over San Antonio. But it must have been a major relief when a Wednesday MRI showed nothing more than a bone bruise. Bynum sat out L.A.’s season finale and he is expected return for Game 1 against New Orleans Sunday.
Meanwhile, Steve Blake has missed two straight games due to a case of chicken pox and he is out indefinitely. Matt Barnes sat out Wednesday’s overtime win over Sacramento with a knee injury but is listed as probable for the postseason opener.
Kobe Bryant is in good shape physically at the moment, but he has been dealing with controversy surrounding the racial slur fired at referee Bennie Adams after being hit with a technical while playing the Spurs. Kobe was then hit with a $100,000 fine by David Stern but the All-Star guard made the necessary apologies and it should blow over well before the weekend.
Upset alert: Boston Celtics
The Celtics floundered down the stretch, losing three of their last five (3-5 ATS) and 11 of their last 21 (9-12 ATS). That could prove costly, because they threw away the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference and would not have home-court advantage against Miami if the two powerhouses meet in Round 2.
It also means Boston has to go up against sixth-seeded New York right away. The Knicks took almost too much time to gel following their deal for Carmelo, even losing nine of 10 games in mid-March, but they suddenly went on a seven-game winning streak (6-1 ATS) during the final two weeks of the regular season.
Don’t put any stock in the season finale between the Celtics and Knicks. Boston prevailed 112-102 at home Wednesday, but both clubs gave their stars some rest and it meant nothing for standings purposes.