NBA Playoff Opening Round Betting Strategies
By Marc Lawrence
Playbook.com
With help from our trusted well-oiled database, let’s examine four time-tested proven theories that have lined our pocket during the opening round of playoffs since 1991. Here’s what the machine has to say.
No. 8 Seeds Are Behind The 8-Ball
For the most part, No. 8 seeds in the NBA playoffs are teams that likely scratched and clawed their way into the post-season. Not good enough to be seriously considered threats against top-seeded opponents but just barely better than the dregs of the league.
Rest assured, their life expectancy is not long at all, as they’ve lost over 70% of time (54-133 SU) in games against No. 1 seeds since 1996. In fact, only the 1996 New York Knicks, the 2007 Golden State Warriors and the 2012 Philadelphia 76ers were good enough to pull the rug on top seeded foes and advance to Round Two of the playoffs.
And you can virtually write them off in games against No. 1 seeds that are off back-to-back SU and ATS wins. These guys scratch like an roaming 8-ball in the side pocket, going 4-25 SU and 9-20 ATS, including 0-16 SU and 2-14 ATS whenever the 8-ballers are off a spread loss of 4 or more points in their last game.
Upset Losers Are Winners
No, it’s not an oxymoron. Instead, it’s a powerful handicapping edge. It occurs whenever a team was upset as a favorite in an opening round game and is at home in the game immediately thereafter.
That’s confirmed by the fact that they are 90-24 SU and 68-42-4, a rock solid number. And if they are squaring off against a No. 6 or lower seed they improve to 48-6 SU and 38-16-2 ATS – including 15-2-2 ATS when favored by less than 8 points..
Don’t be afraid of these chalkbusters. That’s because they don’t lose their composure. Instead they almost always dig down deep and respond with aplomb in games after being embarrassed.
Double-Digit Dogma
Surprisingly, in the right role, double-digit underdogs do well in opening round contests, especially when playing off a playoff loss. These overweight puppies are 32-17-2 ATS in this role.
And if these same guys are involved in a game with the Over/Under total set at 193 or higher they zoom to 26-7 ATS, including 19-3 ATS when facing a non-division foe.
Granted, these dogs are not exactly pedigree puppies but the fact of the matter is they tend to come up big against disinterested favorites not capable of chopping heavy lumber.
And Down Goes Frazier
The psyche of teams that are not playing well comes immediately to the surface during the opening round of the NBA playoffs. That’s evidenced by the fact that teams riding a three game-exact loss skein are wobbly and oftentimes one punch away from being counted out.
With glass-like jaws, these swirling teams are just 46-63 SU and 44-61-4 ATS away from home this round, including 7-11 SU and 6-12 ATS in lid-lifters.
Worst of all, road dogs of more than six points on a three game exact losing skid are 3-27 SU and 8-22 ATS on their way to the canvas.
Trending
Defending champions (the Golden State Warriors in this case) are 74-33 SU and 59-44-4 ATS in opening round games the next season, including 16-8 SU and 15-8-1 ATS in Game One of Round One. They are, however, just 5-9 ATS as double-digit chalk in this round.
East parity leaves Cavs as hunted
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com
Whenever anyone looked up from what Golden State managed to accomplish long enough to address the Eastern Conference, the question that typically followed has remained the same for months.
If not the Cavs, then who?
Despite a drama-filled season featuring multiple LeBron James veiled tweets citing displeasure with his teammates, a poor record against the NBA's other elite teams and the midseason firing of head coach David Blatt, Cleveland locked up the No. 1 seed in the East. They also surpassed the projected season win total set at 56.5 by the Westgate LV Superbook, going 57-25.
Since homecourt means so much to a team like the Cavs, the fact the path to the Eastern Conference title goes through Quicken Loans Arena offers a huge advantage Cleveland ranks just behind the Spurs and Warriors with a 33-8 home record, so ensuring that a Game 1 and Game 7 will be played at the Q was a top priority that contributed to holding off the No. 2-seeded Raptors.
Sportsbook.ag lists them at -260 (1-to-2.6) to get out of the East and play for the NBA championship for the second consecutive year.
Which brings us back to the question of who, if anyone, is best equipped to knock them off.
Toronto has garnered enough respect to have earned the nod from oddsmakers, coming in at +500 (5-to-1) despite having never reached a conference finals in franchise history. In fact, the Raptors have only won a single series since coming on the NBA scene in 1996, way back in 2001. The Raps are 1-7 in playoff series, winning just 14 of 42 games.
This particular group, led by All-Star guards Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan, has failed to get out of the first round in each of the last two seasons despite being the higher-seeded team. Last season, Toronto was surprisingly swept out of the playoffs by the Wizards as the No. 4 seed. Despite this, there's plenty to like, since Lowry and DeRozan have become more efficient, center Jonas Valanciunas has improved and vets like Cory Joseph and Luis Scola have helped breed a winning climate. The Raptors defend like few others in the conference, but to me, they’re not the clear-cut choice for the second option behind the Cavs.
For my money, Miami and Atlanta, who tied Charlotte and Boston with identical 48-34 records but will have homecourt advantage over them in the first round, have to be considered the most significant threats to Cleveland's throne.
The Hawks are at +1000 (10-to-1) and have recovered from losing DeMarre Carroll in the offseason, plugging in Kent Bazemore and Thabo Sefolosha in that spot. Since Paul Millsap, Jeff Teague, Al Horford, Kyle Korver, Dennis Schroder and Mike Scott all played significant roles in last year's run to the Eastern Conference finals, you have to consider Atlanta a significant threat to get back there. The Hawks proved last year that Philips Arena can be a tough place to play when their typically apathetic fan base shows up, so expect an excellent environment on Saturday. Atlanta will support a winner. It's not out of the question that they'll get one to back.
The Hawks defeated the Celtics in three of four contests, but only one of their meetings has come in 2016, last weekend’s 118-107 home win where they shot 52 percent and hit 17 3-pointers. Paul Millsap finished with 31 points and 16 rebounds, so this appears to be his series.
The Heat are priced at +1200 (12-to-1) to win the Eastern Conference and are certainly at the top of my list of teams that can knock off Cleveland. While it doesn't appear they're going to get All-Star Chris Bosh back, the acquisition of Joe Johnson has transformed Miami into one of the most efficient offensive teams in the NBA since he arrived. His ability to spread the floor has provided space for Dwyane Wade and Goran Dragic to create for others, not to mention giving Hassan Whiteside more room to work inside. That’s been a game-changer. Whiteside, the league's leading shot blocker has continued to progress as an offensive threat and is the top x-factor in the East’s postseason picture. Although rookies aren't typically reliable, defense-oriented elite athletes Justise Winslow and Josh Richardson have helped change games with their ability to lock up on the perimeter. They've performed like veterans, which makes Miami versatile and dangerous.
Beyond the kids, the presence of Wade, Luol Deng, Amar'e Stoudemire and Udonis Haslem, guys who have been through the playoff wars, affords the Heat a toughness that few teams have. If there's anyone that can get in the head of LeBron's younger mates, it's his former squad. You can bet he knows this and would rather not see Miami on his playoff odyssey in a conference finals. Although James still has business interests in South Florida and has visited plenty this season, Heat fans love to ride him and would spice up a series with their influence.
Boston and Charlotte were installed at +1500 (15-to-1) earlier this week, but the Hornets are now +2500 (25-to-1) and is the more appealing longshot considering that the difference between them and the Celtics in negligible. Neither packs significant playoff experience. Both teams are superbly coached by Brad Stevens and Steve Clifford, and they're led by guards who can get hot enough to sway a series in Isaiah Thomas and Kemba Walker. Both also have versatile weapons at small forward who can make James work in Jae Crowder and Nicolas Batum, tough defenders who command attention at both ends. The No. 5 and 6 seeds will be dangerous.
Finally, Indiana (+5000, 50-to-1) and Detroit (+7500, 75-to-1) face long odds, but there’s no question the Pacers are far and away the more viable option if you’re interested in purchasing a lottery ticket. Not only will the Pistons have to go through the more formidable Cavs first, they’ll have to overcome a key injury to point guard Reggie Jackson, who suffered an ill-timed abdominal strain and isn’t expected to be 100 percent even if he doesn’t miss a game. Considering a young roster isn’t unlikely to overwhelm anybody, wins will have to come in tight games, which means they’ll have to overcome the glaring weakness that is center Andre Drummond’s free-throw shooting. He’s on a 19-for-65 (29 pct) run at the stripe, compounding the issue enough that it’s left head coach Stan Van Gundy no choice but to start substituting the NBA’s top rebounder out late in games.
The Pacers don’t have those type of weaknesses and can lean on an elite talent in Paul George, who has experience taking a team to within a win of an NBA Finals. Frank Vogel has plenty of veteran guards on the roster, which increases the likelihood that Indiana will be able to keep its composure in a raucous atmosphere north of the border. The Pacers have beaten Toronto only once in four meetings, but own wins against every team in the East playoff landscape with the exception of Charlotte. In a season where parity has reigned in the conference, it’s harder to ride Indiana off than it is Detroit.
1st Round Cheat Sheet
VegasInsider.com
SU - Straight Up, ATS - Against the Spread
No. 1 Cleveland (57-25 SU, 37-43-2 ATS vs. No. 8 Detroit (44-38 SU, 42-37-3 ATS)
2015-16 Regular Season (Pistons 3-1)
Nov. 17 Cavaliers at Pistons (+4.5) 104-99 Over (195.5)
Jan. 29 Cavaliers (-4) at Pistons 114-106 Over (207.5)
Feb. 22 Cavaliers vs. Pistons (+9) 96-88 Under (207.5)
Apr. 13 Cavaliers vs. Pistons (+4) 112-110 Over (194)
Home Records (SU/ATS)
Cleveland: 33-8-0, 20-21
Detroit: 26-15, 24-15-2
Away Records (SU/ATS)
Cleveland: 24-17, 17-22-2
Detroit: 18-23, 18-22
Current Form (Record Since All-Star Break)
Cleveland: 19-11 SU, 14-16 ATS, 15-14 O/U
Detroit: 17-11 SU, 15-12-1 ATS, 13-14-1 O/U
No. 2 Toronto (56-26 SU, 44-37-1 ATS) vs. No. 7 Indiana (45-37 SU, 42-40 ATS)
2015-16 Regular Season Raptors (3-1)
Oct. 28 Raptors (-5.5) vs. Pacers 106-99 Over (199.5)
Dec. 14 Raptors at Pacers (-4.5) 106-90 Under (200)
Mar. 17 Raptors (+2) at Pacers 101-94 Under (203.5)
Apr. 8 Raptors (-5) vs. Pacers 111-98 Over (193.5)
Home Records (SU/ATS)
Toronto: 32-9, 23-18
Indiana: 26-15, 21-20
Away Records (SU/ATS)
Toronto: 24-17, 21-19-1
Indiana: 19-22, 21-20
Current Form (Record Since All-Star Break)
Toronto: 21-9 SU, 16-14 ATS, 16-14 O/U
Indiana: 17-12 SU, 15-14 ATS, 11-18 O/U
No. 3 Miami (48-34 SU, 43-38-1 ATS) vs. No. 6 Charlotte (48-34 SU, 42-38-2 ATS)
2015-16 Regular Season (2-2)
Oct. 28 Heat (-6.5) vs. Hornets 104-94 Over (194)
Dec. 9 Heat at Hornets (+1) 99-81 Under (192)
Feb. 5 Heat (+4) at Hornets 98-95 Under (194.5)
Mar. 17 Heat vs. Hornets (+4.5) 109-106 Over (208)
Home Records (SU/ATS)
Miami: 28-13, 20-20-1
Charlotte: 30-11, 21-18-2
Away Records (SU/ATS)
Miami: 20-21, 20-21
Charlotte: 18-23, 21-20
Current Form (Record Since All-Star Break)
Miami: 19-10 SU, 17-12 ATS, 16-13 O/U
Charlotte: 21-8 SU, 16-13 ATS, 16-13 O/U
No. 4 Atlanta (48-34 SU, 41-39-2 ATS) vs. No. 5 Boston (48-34 SU, 41-39-2 ATS)
2015-16 Regular Season Hawks (3-1)
Nov. 13 Hawks at Celtics (+1.5) 106-93 Under (206.5)
Nov. 24 Hawks (-2.5) vs. Celtics 121-97 Over (204.5)
Dec. 18 Hawks (+3.5) at Celtics Won 109-101 Over (206.5)
Apr. 9 Hawks (-5) vs. Celtics Won 118-107 Over (207.5)
Home Records (SU/ATS)
Atlanta: 27-14, 21-19-1
Boston: 28-13, 22-17-2
Away Records (SU/ATS)
Atlanta: 21-20, 20-20-1
Boston: 20-21, 19-22
Current Form (Record Since All-Star Break)
Boston: 16-11 SU, 11-16 ATS, 12-15 O/U
Atlanta: 17-10 SU, 15-12 ATS, 11-15-1 O/U
No. 1 Golden State (73-9 SU, 43-36-3 ATS) vs. No. 8 Houston (41-41 SU, 37-45 ATS)
2015-16 Regular Season (Warriors 3-0)
Oct. 30 Warriors (-1) at Rockets 112-92 Under (216.5)
Dec. 31 Warriors (-3.5) at Rockets 114-110 Over (211)
Feb. 9 Warriors (-14) vs. Rockets 123-110 Over (229.5)
Home Records (SU/ATS)
Golden State: 39-2, 20-19-2
Houston: 23-18, 17-24
Away Records (SU/ATS)
Golden State: 34-7, 23-17-1
Houston: 18-23, 20-21
Current Form (Record Since All-Star Break)
Golden State: 25-5 SU, 14-15-1 ATS, 15-14-1 O/U
Houston: 14-13 SU, 14-13 ATS, 15-12 O/U
No. 2 San Antonio (67-15 SU, 43-38-1 ATS) vs. No. 7 Memphis (42-40 SU, 41-39-2 ATS)
2015-16 Regular Season (Spurs 4-0)
Nov. 21 Spurs (-8 vs. Grizzlies 92-82 Under (190)
Dec. 3 Spurs (-3) at Grizzlies 103-83 Over (183)
Mar. 25 Spurs (-13) vs. Grizzlies 110-104 Over (190.5)
Mar. 28 Spurs (-5.5) at Grizzlies 101-87 Under (193)
Home Records (SU/ATS)
San Antonio: 40-1, 22-18-1
Memphis: 26-15, 22-18-1
Away Records (SU/ATS)
San Antonio: 27-14, 21-20
Memphis: 16-25, 19-21-1
Current Form (Record Since All-Star Break)
San Antonio: 22-7 SU, 10-19 ATS, 10-19 O/U
Memphis: 11-18 SU, 16-13 ATS, 16-13 O/U
No. 3 Oklahoma City (55-27 SU, 37-43-2 ATS) vs. No. 6 Dallas (42-40 SU, 44-37-1 ATS)
2015-16 Regular Season (Thunder 4-0)
Nov. 22 Thunder (-3.5) vs. Mavericks 117-114 Over (208.5)
Jan. 13 Thunder (-12.5) vs. Mavericks 108-89 Under (207)
Jan. 22 Thunder (-6.5) at Mavericks 109-106 Over (208)
Feb. 24 Thunder (-5.5) at Mavericks Won 116-103 Over (215)
Home Records (SU/ATS)
Oklahoma City: 32-9, 21-20
Dallas: 23-18, 22-18-1
Away Records (SU/ATS)
Oklahoma City: 23-18, 16-23-2
Dallas: 19-22, 22-19
Current Form (Record Since All-Star Break)
Oklahoma City: 15-14 SU, 15-12-2 ATS, 15-14 O/U
Dallas: 13-14 SU, 14-12-1 ATS, 14-13 O/U
No. 4 L.A. Clippers (53-29 SU, 40-38-4 ATS) vs. No. 5 Portland (44-38 SU, 44-38 ATS)
2015-16 Regular Season (Clippers 3-1)
Nov. 20 Clippers at Trail Blazers (-4.5) 91-102 Under (210)
Nov. 30 Clippers (-7) vs. Trail Blazers 102-87 Under (206)
Jan. 6 Clippers (-3.5) at Trail Blazers 109-98 Over (205.5)
Mar. 24 Clippers (-5.5) vs. Trail Blazers 96-94 Under (216)
Home Records (SU/ATS)
L.A. Clippers: 29-12, 20-20-1
Portland: 28-13, 21-20
Away Records (SU/ATS)
L.A. Clippers: 24-17, 20-18-3
Portland: 16-25, 23-18
Current Form (Record Since All-Star Break)
L.A. Clippers: 18-12 SU, 14-15 ATS, 10-19 O/U
Portland: 17-11 SU, 14-14 ATS, 15-13 O/U
Handicapping the Playoffs
By ASAWins.com
How Efficient do you have to be to be NBA Champion?
Efficiency ratings and rankings have become the standard measurement of teams and players and if you are not familiar with those numbers, and you’re a sports bettor, you might want to do a little research and get to know what they mean.
Very simply put Offensive Efficiency (OEFF = points scored per 100 possessions) and Defensive Efficiency (DEFF = points allowed per 100 possessions) are great ways to evaluate teams and players and how good they truly are.
The league average for OEFF this season was 106 while the defensive number was 106.8 It's no surprise the Golden State Warriors were the most efficient offensive team in the NBA at 114.5 points per 100 possessions while the San Antonio Spurs held the best defensive efficiency rating in the league of 99.
These numbers can be useful in predicting an NBA Champion if past history tells us anything which we’ll explain below.
Going back to the 2008-09 season the Finals featured the LA Lakers and the Orlando Magic which the Lakers won 4 games to 1. The Lakers finished the regular season ranked 3rd in OEFF and 6th in DEFF.
Below are the Finals Champions and their overall efficiency rankings for the past seven Championships.
NBA CHAMPIONS FROM 2008 ON:
2008-09 LA Lakers (OEFF 3rd, DEFF 6th)
2009-10 LA Lakers (OEFF 11th, DEFF 4th)
2010-11 Dallas Mavericks (OEFF 8th, DEFF 7th)
2011-12 Miami Heat (OEFF 8th, DEFF 4th)
2012-13 Miami Heat (OEFF 1st, DEFF 9th)
2013-14 San Antonio Spurs (OEFF 7th, DEFF 3rd)
2014-15 Golden State Warriors (OEFF 2nd, DEFF 1st)
So you can see for yourself the only team that won a Championship in the last seven years that had an OEFF or DEFF not in the top 10 of the NBA for that season was the 09-10 Lakers (11th in offensive efficiency). So using this model to predict this year’s Champion we can eliminate everyone but the following seven teams: Golden State, San Antonio, LA Clippers, Charlotte, Cleveland, Boston and Toronto. Now the tough part is figuring out just which one of these ‘efficient’ teams will win it all this year.
2015-16 Regular Season Efficiency Rankings for the Math Model "Contenders"
Golden State Warriors: OEFF 1st, DEFF 5th
San Antonio Spurs: OEFF 4th, DEFF 1st
LA Clippers: OEFF 7th, DEFF 6th
Charlotte Hornets: OEFF 9th, DEFF 8th
Cleveland Cavaliers: OEFF 3rd, DEFF 10th
Boston Celtics: OEFF 10th, DEFF 4th
Toronto Raptors: OEFF 5th, DEFF 11th
The one 'big' contender that is missing from the above list is the Oklahoma City Thunder who have the 2nd most efficient offense in the NBA (OEFF) but rank outside the top 11 in defensive efficiency (DEFF) at the 13th position. But the Thunder are a team that can certainly win it all in 15-16 as they have the 3rd best overall efficiency differential (OEFF minus DEFF) at +7.5, just behind the Spurs and Warriors.
OKC also has the 3rd best overall point differential in the league at +7.3PPG. The Thunder were 2-2 against the Spurs this year and could potentially win that series but they were 0-3 against the Warriors who they simply don't match up with (1-6 L7 meetings) so it's unlikely they will come out of the West. But with triple-double machine Russell Westbrook and scoring wiz Kevin Durant it's not impossible.
NBA Champions
The eventual Champion comes from the West and will be either the Golden State Warriors or San Antonio Spurs. Golden State is incredible and set the record for the most wins in the regular season at 73 but they offer no value what-so-ever with a future wager as they are -$200 at most Sports Books to win it all. San Antonio offers a better return on your investment at +$300 and statistically is just as good or even better than Golden State. San Antonio is deep, has veteran leadership, size, toughness, rebounding and the best coach in the NBA. Their efficiency differential was +11.3 which was better than Golden State's +10.7 and remember that is with Coach "Popp" resting players on a nightly basis all season long. The Spurs scoring or point differential was +10.6PPG which was slightly less than Golden State's point differential of +10.8PPG but you don't know that as the Warriors offense gets all the media hype. As they say, defense wins Championships and the Spurs have the best in the league by far. Small future bet on San Antonio.
Opening Round Series Winners
The Boston Celtics have better efficiency numbers than the Hawks but when it comes to the efficiency differentials the Hawks are better and they have the better defense. Atlanta (-$145) is a veteran team while the Celtics are young and a few years away yet. The Hawks won three of four in this series and should move on after the first round.
LA Clippers at -275
The Clippers are quietly going about their business in the West while the Warriors and Spurs get all the attention but with the 7th best OEFF and 6th best DEFF they can certainly contend in the West. LA got it done for most of the season without Blake Griffin and don't forget they still have one of the best point guards in the league in Chris Paul. The veteran Clippers have a decided advantage over the young Trail Blazers who had to replace four starters from last year's unit. The Clippers won three of four during the regular season against Portland and should advance here.
The media attention surrounding the Warriors and their chase for the regular season win record, the Spurs and their home dominance and then Kobe’s farewell tour and finale have all eyes on the NBA right now.
NBA’s “Second Season”
By Larry Ness
Covers.com
The Golden St Warriors won the NBA title last year and followed that by winning a single-season record 73 games in the 2015-16 season. The Western Conference playoff ‘picture’ looks almost identical to last year’s field, as only the Pelicans are missing this year, replaced by the OKC Thunder (no surprise, as Durant played only 27 games last season). Houston, the West’s No. 2 seed last year, just barely qualified this time around, securing the eighth and final playoff spot on the final day of the regular season. Houston’s reward is a series with the Warriors. The Spurs (vs the Grizzlies) and Thunder (vs the Mavs) are also prohibitive favorites in the first round, with the Clippers and Blazers being the only semi-competitive 1st-round series, although LA is about a 3 1/2-to-1 choice.
The Cavs claimed the East’s No. 1 seed, with the Raptors falling just one game shy of the top spot. The Hawks won an East-best 60 games last year but this year were one of FOUR teams which finished with 48 wins. Tie-breakers decided the No. 3 through No. 6 seeds, as Miami gets the No. 3 seed, Atlanta the 4th seed, Boston the 5-seed and Charlotte the 6th seed. Atlanta (1) and Boston (7) were in last year’s playoff field but Miami (last season was its first year without LBJ) and Charlotte are new to the ‘party.’ Chicago (3), Washington (5), Milwaukee (6) and Brooklyn (8 are all staying at home this year, while Indiana (7) and Detroit (8 have joined the Heat and Hornets as ‘party crashers’ in 2016. The East’s two-most competitive 1st-round series are the Hawks (-160) over the Celtics and the Heat (-150) over the Hornets.
The NBA consists of 30 teams and just 13 have won championships since the 1976-77 merger, with only SEVEN winning multiple titles. The Lakers lead the way with 10, followed by the Bulls (six), Spurs (five), Celtics (four), Pistons (three), Heat (three) and Rockets (two). Of the six teams to win single titles since the merger, all but the Mavs (2011) and Warriors (2015) have come more than 20 years ago. The Blazers won the first NBA title post-merger in 1977, followed by the Bullets (now Wizards) winning in 1978 over the Sonics (now Thunder) and then the Sonics “returning the favor” the following season by beating the Bullets. The sixth team to win a single NBA title since the merger was the 76ers, who won with Moses and Doctor J in that famous Fo’, Fo’ Fo’ season of 1982-83. Fast-forward to recent seasons and the 76ers have won 19, 18 and 10 games, respectively.
The last three NBA champs have entered the postseason with the league’s best regular season record. The Heat were 66-16 in 2013 and won a second straight title by edging the Spurs in a seven-game series, with the Spurs bouncing back in 2014 to beat the Heat in the Finals (4-1), after a league-best 62-20 record. The Warriors won a league-high 67 games last year, on the way to beating the Cavs (4-2) in the Finals and capturing their second-ever title (won in 1974-75, led by Rick Barry). The three-year winning streak by the team with the league’s best record ended a four-year drought of NBA champs which didn’t own the best regular season record. The 2007-08 Celtics won the title after topping the NBA that season with a 66-16 record but then the Lakers won in 2009 (2nd-best record), the Lakers again in 2010 (3rd), the Mavs in 2011 (T-4th) and the Heat in 2012 (4th).
As noted already, the Warriors come off a record-setting regular season and as I point out every year at this time, it’s not as if the NBA playoffs typically serve up “unlikely” champs. Bird and Magic entered the NBA for the start of the 1979-80 season, rejuvenating what was a 'dying' league. Here's what a check of the history books tell us. Of the 36 championship teams since that 1979-80 season, 18 have been teams which finished the regular season with the best regular season record (or tied for the best record). Nine champs have been teams which finished with its second-best mark and four others with its third-best record.
That leaves just FIVE champions from outside the top-three regular season records over the last 36 seasons (or just 13.9 percent). However, while only five champions have come from a group outside of the top-three regular season records these last 36 years, it would be foolish to not realize that FOUR of those five have come in the last 12 years. The 2012 Heat and 2011 Mavericks both finished with the fourth-best record that year. The other two recent teams to do so are the 2003-04 Pistons, who finished at 54-28 (sixth-best mark) and the 2005-06 Heat, who owned a 52-30 mark that year, which represented the league's fifth-best record that season. The 2004 Pistons deserve an asterisk, because after acquiring Rasheed Wallace, the Pistons owned the NBA’s best record after the All Star break and by year’s end, were HARDLY considered the league’s sixth-best team. As for the 2006 Heat, they owe the Mavs as big favor, as Dallas coughed up a 2-0 Finals lead, losing FOUR straight games (Mavs made up for that ‘choke’ in 2011). That leaves the 1994-95 Houston Rockets as the fifth team to win an an NBA title these last 36 years, without finishing the regular season with at least, the league’s third-best regular season record. That squad deserves a “special mention.”
You may remember that following a third straight NBA title in 1992-93 with the Bulls, MJ decided to pursue a career in MLB. The tragic death of his father was said to have had something to do with MJ’s decision, although there are other theories out there. Anyway, with MJ in the minors and not on an NBA court, the 1993-94 Rockets (coached by Rudy T and led by Hakeem) won the title in a seven-game series over the Knicks, who were coached by Pat Riley and led by Patrick Ewing. The following season, the Rockets finished with a record of 47-35, tied for the 10th-best mark during the regular season. However, they beat in order, the 60-22 Jazz, the 59-23 Suns and the 62-20 Spurs (owners of the league's best record that year in David Robinson's MVP season) in the Western Conference playoffs, to reach the NBA Finals. Waiting for them were the 57-25 Magic, led by Shaq and Penny (anyone see the 30-for-30 special Thursday on ESPN?), who had eliminated the Bulls and MJ, who returned late in that season from his MLB 'sabbatical.' The Rockets swept the Magic in four games, giving Rudy T and Hakeem back-to-back titles and giving Clyde Drexler (who was acquired from Portland during the season in a trade), the lone NBA title of his Hall-of-Fame career. Houston 'victims' that postseason had a combined record of 238-90 (.726) during the regular season. No championship team, before or since, has beaten a more impressive group of challengers on its way to an NBA title.
On the eve of the 2016 playoffs, should we expect any surprises? Or, are the record-setting Warriors a ‘lock’ to become back-to-back NBA champs? The 67-win Spurs owned this year’s second-best record and the 57-win Cavs had the third-best record. Anyone really think that this year’s champ will NOT come from one of the league’s “top-three?”
Playoff Zig-Zag Theory
By Marc Lawrence
Playbook.com
In NBA handicapping circles, Zig Zags are trendy applications that have been profitable moneymakers during the playoffs.
The premise is simple: "Play On" a team off a playoff loss in its very next game.
The theory is that in a short series involving imminent elimination, a team in more inclined to bounce back with a good effort off a losing performance than it is to continue its losing ways.
How have these plays held up of late? You might be surprised.
Here are point-spread results of NBA Playoff Zig Zags from 1991 through 2015.
Game On, Dude
Overall: 819-726-38(53.0%)
Game Two: 204-159-13 (56.2%)
Game Three: 201-168-8(54.5%)
Game Four: 167-170-8 (49.6%)
Game Five: 135-124-7(52.1%)
Game Six: 79-70-2 (51.6%)
Game Seven: 30-27-2 (52.5%)
The strength of NBA Zig Zags appears to be in Game Two where they become a better than 56% point-spread play on the blind.
Burn Baby Burn
Like all things that are popular, though, they eventually burn out and revert back to the norm.
A combination of the ‘law of averages’ and an adjustment by the oddsmakers has seen the NBA Zig Zags go up in smoke since 2001.
That’s confirmed by the fact that these plays slipped dramatically the last 15 years (2001-2015), going 508-477-28 – or 51.6% - overall as opposed to a 311-249-10 mark – or 55.5% - in games played from 1991-2000.
That’s a decline of nearly 4 full percentage points. Or in bottom line terms, they have been money burners on the blind the last 15 seasons. Talk about a buzz kill.
Round ‘Em Up
Here is a breakdown of how the Zig Zags have fared during each round of the NBA Playoffs since 1991:
Round One: 393-346-22 (53.2%)
Round Two: 204-159-13 (56.2%)
Round Three: 120-111-6 (51.9%)
Round Four: 60-53-3 (53.1%)
While it appears Round Two holds a discernable edge, it should be noted that home teams off a double-digit loss in Round Two have yielded the largest profits, as they are 83-54-3 (60.6%).
Planting The Seeds
Here is a breakdown of how the Zig Zags have fared by seed during NBA Playoffs:
No. 1 Seeds: 117-106-5 (52.5%)
No. 2 Seeds: 113-92-4 (55.1%)
No. 3 Seeds: 97-85-9 (53.3%)
No. 4 Seeds: 80-76-1(51.3%)
No. 5 Seeds: 75-71-3(51.4%)
No. 6 Seeds: 81-76-2-2(51.6%)
No. 7 Seeds: 44-65-4(40.4%)
No. 8 Seeds: 66-46-5 (59.0%)
Note these results are since the 1996 season, when we first began charting seeds.
Note the disparate results that abound between No. 7 and No. 8 seeds.
Rocky Mountain High
So when is it we can still expect to catch the best possible result when firing up with these with NBA Zig Zags these days, you ask?
Simple. Look to support double-digit underdogs when they are off a SU and ATS loss. They’ve stood the test of time, going 35-19-2 ATS since 1991. That’s a pretty high 64.8% winning percentage when you think about it.
So instead of zigging when you should be zagging, check out the optimum roles outlined above... and enjoy the games.
Gambling recap of a wild NBA Playoffs weekend, look ahead to Game Two
By Joe Fortenbaugh
Covers.com
How’s this as a way to kick-off the 2016 NBA playoffs: through just eight total matchups, there have already been four blowouts of 25 or more points. To put that into perspective, the 2011, 2012 and 2014 NBA playoffs each featured just four total blowouts of 25 or more points during their entire respective postseason runs.
Yes, things got a bit wild as The Association’s annual postseason slugfest got underway Saturday. And between Steph Curry’s ankle injury, Detroit’s feistiness and Toronto’s never-ending first-round woes, things will only get more exhilarating as we progress towards crowing a champion in June.
For now, let’s take a look at how NBA teams have historically fared in a seven-game series based on the series deficit before diving into some matchup-by-matchup analysis.
Best-of-7 series in NBA history:
1-0 lead: 372-111 (77.0%)
2-0 lead: 254-16 (94.1%)
3-0 lead: 118-0 (100.0%)
2-1 lead: 294-71 (80.5%)
3-1 lead: 220-9 (96.1%)
3-2 lead: 238-42 (85.0%)
In addition, take note that only 23 teams in NBA history have emerged victorious in the first two games of a best-of-7 series on the road. Of those 23 clubs, 20 went on to win the series.
No. 1 Golden State Warriors vs. No. 8 Houston Rockets
Game 1: Warriors 104, Rockets 78 (at Golden State)
ATS result: Warriors -13 and UNDER 224.5
Game 2: Monday at 10:30pm eastern in Oakland
What you need to know: From the opening whistle, this game was never in doubt as the defending champs jumped out to a 33-15 first quarter lead and never looked back. I was at Oracle Arena on Saturday and can tell you first-hand that Houston’s body language was nothing short of dreadful, which gave the impression to anyone with a pulse that the Rockets would rather be on a beach sipping margaritas than waging war with a 73-win juggernaut.
However, MVP Steph Curry tweaked his ankle just before halftime, sat out practice on Sunday and is officially listed as “questionable” for Game 2 on Monday night. But Houston point guard Patrick Beverley isn’t buying it, stating Sunday when asked if Curry was questionable for Game 2, “S--- no. He’s playing.”
Trend to consider: Despite their dominance over the rest of The Association, the Warriors are just 6-6 ATS at home during the playoffs since last season.
No. 1 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. No. 8 Detroit Pistons
Game 1: Cavaliers 106, Pistons 101 (at Cleveland)
ATS result: Detroit +11 and OVER 200
Game 2: Wednesday at 8:00pm eastern in Cleveland
What you need to know: As predicted by several insiders prior to the start of this series, Detroit gave Cleveland all it could handle from the opening tip by grabbing a 58-53 halftime lead that regressed into a 78-76 edge entering the fourth quarter. But LeBron James finally got some playoff help in the form of 59 combined points from Kyrie Irving (31) and Kevin Love (28) as the Cavaliers took control of an 88-88 tie with 6:29 remaining in the fourth quarter and brought down the curtain on the upstart Pistons thanks to a combination of experience and patience.
Be suspicious of Detroit in Game 2, as the Pistons went 15/29 (51.7%) from three-point range on Sunday. That type of accuracy will be tough to maintain for a team that shot just 34.5% from deep during the regular season (t-21st in NBA).
Trend to consider: LeBron James has now won 14 consecutive first-round playoff games and has never failed to advance past the conference quarterfinals in ten attempts.
No. 2 Toronto Raptors vs. No. 7 Indiana Pacers
Game 1: Pacers 100, Raptors 90 (at Toronto)
ATS result: Indiana +7 and UNDER 195
Game 2: Monday at 7:00pm eastern in Toronto
What you need to know: The Raptors are now 0-8 all-time in their first game of the playoffs, with this latest loss coming thanks to an inability to defend Pacers forward Paul George, who became the first Indiana player since Jalen Rose in 2000 to record 30 points and 5 assists in a postseason game. Not only that, but George locked it down on the defensive end of the floor as well by limiting Raptors All-Star shooting guard DeMar DeRozan to 3/15 shooting when marked by George. Indiana’s upset victory marked the end of the franchise’s five-game losing streak at Air Canada Centre.
Trend to consider: The Pacers have now covered the spread in four straight games as well as in five of their last six outings.
No. 2 San Antonio Spurs vs. No. 7 Memphis Grizzlies
Game 1: Spurs 106, Grizzlies 74 (at San Antonio)
ATS result: Spurs -17 and UNDER 188.5
Game 2: Tuesday at 9:30pm eastern in San Antonio
What you need to know: San Antonio shot 68% from the field during the third quarter while outscoring Memphis 33-14 to hand the Grizzlies their worst postseason loss in franchise history on Sunday night. Never was the absence of both Memphis center Marc Gasol and point guard Mike Conley more evident than during the first quarter when the Grizzlies notched just 13 total points en route to a nine-point deficit after just 12 minutes of action.
Between one of the deepest rosters in the league in San Antonio and one of the most banged-up clubs in the league in Memphis, this series has all the makings of a blowout.
Trend to consider: San Antonio is now 5-0 straight-up and 4-1 ATS against Memphis this season while winning by an average of 16.4 points per game.
No. 3 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. No. 6 Dallas Mavericks
Game 1: Thunder 108, Mavericks 70 (at Oklahoma City)
ATS result: Oklahoma City -12 and UNDER 206
Game 2: Monday at 8:00pm eastern in Oklahoma City
What you need to know: Oklahoma City forward Kevin Durant checked out of Game 1 for good with 4:43 remaining in the third quarter. At that point, Durant and All-Star teammate Russell Westbrook had outscored the entire Mavericks roster 43-42 by themselves. The 70 total points Dallas posted on Saturday night marks the fewest points scored in a playoff game in franchise history, while Oklahoma City’s 38-point win was the club’s second-largest margin of victory in a playoff game in team history.
Be advised that only two teams in NBA history have gone on to win a playoff series after losing a game by at least 38 points.
Trend to consider: Oklahoma City is now 5-0 straight-up and 3-2 ATS in five games against Dallas this season.
No. 3 Miami Heat vs. No. 6 Charlotte Hornets
Game 1: Heat 123, Hornets 91 (at Miami)
ATS result: Miami -4.5 and OVER 199
Game 2: Wednesday at 7:00pm in Miami
What you need to know: It was a performance for the ages in South Beach on Sunday as the Heat tied a franchise playoff record with 41 first-quarter points and broke another franchise playoff record with 123 total points in a 32-point route of a Hornets team that was outmatched and out-hustled from the jump.
Making just their third playoff appearance since re-emerging as the Charlotte Bobcats in 2004-2005, the Hornets shot just 6/17 (35.3%) from three-point range and recorded a grand total of only 11 assists, while the Heat went 9/18 from deep and notched 27 assists with just six turnovers committed.
Trend to consider: The OVER has hit in each of Charlotte’s last six games.
No. 4 Atlanta Hawks vs. No. 5 Boston Celtics
Game 1: Hawks 102, Celtics 101 (at Atlanta)
ATS result: Boston +5.5 and UNDER 206
Game 2: Tuesday at 7:00pm in Atlanta
What you need to know: Despite a valiant second-half effort, the Boston Celtics have now dropped six straight playoff games for the first time since losing eight consecutive postseason showdowns from 2003-2004 thanks, in large part, to Atlanta point guard Jeff Teague’s third career postseason effort of at least 20 points (23) and 10 assists (12). Boston fell behind 30-19 in the first quarter and 51-34 at halftime before a second-half surge brought the club to within striking distance within the final minute.
However, the loss of point guard Avery Bradley to a hamstring injury with 6:42 left in the fourth quarter ultimately doomed Boston’s chances. Bradley is currently considered doubtful to play in the rest of the series according to Celtics head coach Brad Stevens.
Trend to consider: The Hawks are now 4-1 straight-up and 3-2 ATS in five games against Boston this season.
No. 4 Los Angeles Clippers vs. No. 5 Portland Trail Blazers
Game 1: Clippers 115, Trail Blazers 95 (at Portland)
ATS result: Los Angeles -8.5 and UNDER 210.5
Game 2: Wednesday at 10:30pm eastern in Los Angeles
What you need to know: The second-largest Game 1 victory in Clippers playoff history featured Los Angeles point guard Chris Paul’s 21st career postseason game with at least 20 points (28) and 10 assists (11). Damian Lillard and the Blazers proved no match in Game 1 as Portland was outscored in all four quarters and pummeled in the second half by a margin of 65-53.
Perhaps what’s most terrifying for the Blazers is that Los Angeles power forward Blake Griffin (19 points, 12 rebounds, 6 assists in 31 minutes) appears to be back in form after returning to action just two weeks ago following a 45-game absence due to both hand and quadriceps injuries. Take note that the Clippers have now won four straight games against the Trail Blazers dating back to the regular season.
Trend to consider: The Trail Blazers are 2-13 all-time in a best-of-7 playoff series when falling behind 1-0. However, the Clippers have lost three of their last four playoff series after winning Game 1.
Playoff Journal
By Larry Ness
Covers.com
The 2016 NBA postseason began over the weekend and SEVEN of the eight home teams (favorites) won, the exception being Toronto losing at home to Indiana. However, that hardly qualifies as too much of a surprise, as the Raptors are now 0-8 in the first game of an opening-round playoff series since the team joined the NBA beginning with the 1995-96 season. The Raptors own just ONE playoff series win in team history, that coming over the NY Knicks back in 2011. Saturday’s loss was the team’s SEVENTH straight playoff defeat for the Raptors, who were swept out of the first round last year by the Wizards, after losing the final two games of a seven-game loss to the Nets the year before.
The Warriors, Spurs, Cavs and Thunder all came into the weekend as prohibitive favorite in their respective series against the Rockets, Grizzlies, Pistons and Mavs. All but the Cavs won “going away,” with Golden St winning 104-78, San Antonio 106-74 and Oklahoma city 108-70. The Cavs, who lost THREE of four to the Pistons during the regular season, had real trouble ‘shaking’ Detroit on Sunday, as well. The Pistons shot 50.7 percent for the game (15 of 29 on threes) and Cleveland needed a 30-18 run over the game’s final 10:52 to earn a five-point win. However, the good news for Cleveland was that Irving (31) and Love (28 & 13) had excellent games, actually out-producing LBJ (22-11-6).
The two most competive series (according to the moneyline prices) saw disparate results. The Hawks came in as a –160 favorite over the Celtics for the series but while Atlanta led by as much as 19 points in the first half and held a 51-34 lead at the break, Atlanta needed to hold off Boston, 102-101. Muck like Atlanta, Miami was a modest favorite in its series with Charlotte (-150) but unlike the Hawks, the Heat had little trouble with Hornets, winning 123-91. The Heat shot 57.6 percent, led by Deng’s 31 points and Whiteside’s double-double (21 & 11), playing in his first-ever playoff game. Miami set a franchise record for points scored in a postseason game, as well..
As noted at the top, home teams were 7-1 SU but a more modest 5-3 ATS. All four Saturday games went under but on Sunday it was a 2-2 split, as the Blazers and Clippers just barely snuck under the closing number (more than a few “over players” may have cashed). As all series move to a second game over these next few days, I will again mention the infamous “Zig-Zag” theory. The theory is simple. Wager on the losing team of a playoff series in its ensuing game of that series. Back-to-back games between the same teams are rare in the regular season but obviously, teams face each other back-to-back-to-back until each series is decided during the playoffs.
“In theory,” the Zig Zag meshes well with postseason mentality, as the losing team, generally speaking, will be more likely to attempt adjustments for its upcoming game plus is more likely to play with a little more determination in the following game. That’s the theory but a check of the record book does not support that premise. Going back to 2000 (that’s a 16-year history), the best two, one-postseason records for those following the Zig Zag theory came in 2000 (33-25-2 or plus-5.8 net games) and in 2014 (41-32-1 or plus-5.7 net games). However, after “Zig-Zaggers” went 34-32 (minus-1.2 net games) last year, the 16-year record sits at 543-503-24 or minus-10.3 net games. Choose wisely here in 2016.
Three games are slated for Monday with the Pacers and the Raptors up first at 7:05 ET from Toronto. Obviously, this is a “must-win” for the Raptors who will need DeRozan and Lowry (a combined 8 of 32, including 1 of 10 on threes, in Game 1) to play MUCH better. Can the Raptors end a seven-game postseason slide? Oddsmakers say yes, as Toronto is favored by seven points. TNT features a Monday doubleheader, with the Mavs taking on the Thunder in OKC at 8:05 ET in the first game. The Mavs were AWFUL in Game 1, shooting 29.8 percent while scoring only 70 points (a franchise playoff-low). The Thunder will need more contributions from players NOT named Durant, Westbrook and Ibaka in the next round (almost assuredly will face the Spurs) but it’s hard to see them having too much trouble with Dallas. OKC is 5-0 vs Dallas this season, averaging 111.6 PPG. OKC is favored by 13 1/2 points.
Monday’s final game features the Warriors hosting the Rockets at 10:35 ET on TNT. Golden St jumped all over Houston in Game 1 (Warriors held a 60-33 advantage at the half, led by Curry’s 24 points) but Curry tweaked his ankle and the team plans on being VERY cautious with the likely MVP, as he is expected to be held out of this one. Curry or not, the Warriors remain a 13-point choice in Game 2 (Warriors closed as a 13-point favorite in Game 2).
NBA Playoff Report
By Steve Merril
Covers.com
Mavericks at Thunder (-13, 201.5)
Dallas was terrible in Game 1, and now they are a wounded team with multiple guys having injury concerns. It is not known who will be able to play tonight, so this game is difficult to handicap, even though big underdogs are normally solid plays after a blowout loss in the playoffs. Oklahoma City has an elite offense, but a poor defense, so they can’t be trusted in this pointspread range.
Rockets at Warriors (-13, 218)
Golden State swept the season series despite Stephen Curry missing one of the games. In the games he played, the Warriors won by 20 and 13 points. He played sparingly in Game 1 after tweaking his ankle, and Golden State still won by 26 points. Curry is a game-time decision, but with or without him, the Warriors are a superior team to the Rockets who are a weak defensive squad.
Playoff Journal
By Larry Ness
Covers.com
It was a “must win” for the Raptors last night in Toronto and they came through with with a 98-77 win (the victory ended a seven-game postseason losing streak). Indiana’s Paul George (33 points in Game 1) had 28 points but the Pacers fell behind early and while they made a third quarter run, a 4 of 20 night from three-point range (just 41.4% on all FG attempts for the game), stymied their comeback. Jonas Valanciunas led Toronto with 23 & 15 but guards DeRozan and Lowry again struggled from the floor. DeRozan was 5 of 18 (just 10 points), while Lowry was 4 of 13. However, Lowry was 10 of 10 from the FT line, finishing with 18 points and nine assists. The series shifts to Indiana, tied at one-all.
Few would have predicted that the Mavs and Thunder would be tied and one-all, after Dallas shot 29.8 percent and scored just 70 points in Game 1 . However, OKC, which notably failed to close out more than just a few games in the fourth quarter during the regular season, fell into that ‘trap,’ again. Durant missed 26 shots (7 of 33), making it the worst shooting performance in terms of percentage of shots made and shots missed, in a career which has spanned 716 career post and regular season contests! Felton, despite his two missed FTs at the end which almost cost the Mavs, was Dallas’ best player with 21 points and 11 rebounds. Dallas made just 42.7 percent (including 5 of 19 on threes) plus was only 10 of 19 from the free-throw line, yet won, 85-84!
After a brief warm-up in the pre-game shoot around, Curry retuned to the locker room and as expected, watched Game 2 of the Houston/Golden St series from the bench. The Rockets hung around until the fourth quarter but in the end, the Warriors prevailed, 115-106. Livingston started in place of Curry and scored 16 points (also six assists), while Iquodala got extra minutes while adding 18 points. Curry’s “Splash Brother” (Thompson), led the way with 34 points (going 15 of 16 from the FT line), while the ever-present Green almost had a triple-double (12-14-8.). Harden bounced back from an awful Game 1 to score 28 points but Howard was again a non-factor, adding 12 & 10. His plus-minus was minus-22, after earning a minus-16 in Game 1 (14 & 11).
Home teams were 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS, making them 9-2 SU (6-5 ATS) since Saturday. There was a HUGE “late move” on Houston (after Curry was pronounced out) but it would have been hard to lose on the Rockets last night. Two of Monday’s three games stayed under, as “under players” are off to a good start, going 9-3. It’s “Zig Zag” time in all contests beginning with each series’ Game 2s and while it was a 3-0 sweep last night, re-visit my Monday journal which reviews how “Zig-Zaggers” have done since 2000.
It’s a two-game card on Tuesday, with TNT airing a doubleheader. Boston at Atlanta is up first (8:05 ET), with the Hawks up 1-0. Avery Bradley, Boston’s second-leading scorer and its best perimeter defender, is expected to miss the rest of the series. That’s NOT good news for the Celtics, as they’ve lost FIVE straight in Atlanta, where the Hawks have won 11 of their last 13, going back to the end of the regular season. Atlanta is favored by 6 1/2 points. Memphis at San Antonio tips at 10:35 ET, as the Spurs look to take a 2-0 lead. The Grizzlies are a M*A*S*H unit these days, entering with losses in 11 of their last 12 contests plus the Spurs have won 21 of their last 25 meetings with the Grizzlies, including regular and postseason games. San Antonio is favored by 18 points.
Playoff Journal
By Larry Ness
Covers.com
The Celtics managed just SEVEN points in the first quarter last night in Atlanta, as the Hawks rolled to an 89-72 win. The Celtics’ seven 1st-quarter points set an all-time NBA playoff low for an opening quarter, since the advent of the shot clock (1954). Boston shot 31.8 percent for the game (5 of 28 on threes) and has now dropped SEVEN consecutive playoff contests. Atlanta’s Kyle Korver, who was 1 of 10 in Game 1 (0-of-7 on threes), made FIVE of six three-pointers in the first half and led the Hawks with 17 points for the game. Atlanta set a franchise record with 15 blocks (five by Horford and four by Millsap), as the Hawks will take a 2-0 series lead to Boston.
The Spurs also had little trouble taking a 2-0 lead in their series against the Grizzlies. Memphis played an ‘ugly’ game in losing by a 32-point margin (largest playoff loss in franchise history) on Sunday, scoring just 74 points. However, the Grizzlies ‘topped’ that effort of futility by scoring a playoff franchise low of 68 points last night, while losing by 26 points.The Spurs used 13 players and EVERY one got in on the scoring. The 2-0 sweep by the home teams on Tuesday give them an 11-2 SU and 8-5 ATS so far. Both games staying under and under bettors are cleaning up, winning 10 of 13.
“Zig-Zaggers” went a perfect 3-0 ATS on Monday but 0-2 last night. Wednesday’s schedule features three contests, the Hornets at the Heat at 7:05 ET, then a TNT doubleheader with the Pistons at the Cavs (8:05 ET) followed by the Blazers at the Clippers (10:35 ET). Miami set a single-game playoff record with 123 points in Game 1 and enter this game 13-2 SU at home since the All Star break. Meanwhile, the Hornets will take the court tonight having lost 15 of their last 16 games in Miami. The Heat have won 10 straight first round playoff contests but it’s notable that NINE of those came with LBJ still around. Miami is favored tonight by 4 1/2 points.
LBJ has led his teams (Heat and Cavs) to wins in each of his last 14 first round playoff games. He got plenty of help from Irving (31) and Love (28 & 13) in Game 1 but the Pistons hung around all game, before losing just 106-101. Detroit did win THREE of the four regular season meetings, so just maybe, the Pistons are a tough matchup for the Cavs. Cleveland is favored by 10 points in Game 2. The Blazers got routed in Game 1 on Sunday, 115-95. They have now lost 10 of their last 11 vs the Clippers at Staples Center and the team’s playoff history spells doom. Portland is 3-26 all-time in any playoff series in which it has lost Game 1. The Clippers are favored by 8 1/2 points in Game 2.
Playoff Journal
By Larry Ness
Covers.com
The Heat, Cavs and Clippers all took 2-0 leads in their respective series last night, as home teams went 3-0 SU & ATS. Miami put up a franchise playoff-high 123 points in a 32-point Game 1 win, shooting 57.6% (9 of 18 on threes) with Deng’s 31 points and Whiteside’s double-double (21 & 11) leading the way. The Heat shot 57.9% (9 of 16 on threes) in last night’s 115-103 win, with Wade’s 28 points and second straight double-double from Whiteside (17 & 13), leading the way. Miami now owns an 11-game 1st-round winning streak, as well as a 14-2 home record since the All Star break. The Hornets will be glad to return home for the next two games, as they’ve now lost 15 of their last 16 in Miami. However, the prognosis is not good, as Miami has taken a 2-0 series lead for the 14th time in franchise history, having won each of the 13 previous times it has done so.
The Cavs struggled to put the Pistons away in Game 1 (needed to outscore Detroit 30-18 over the game’s final 10:52 to win by FIVE points) but a 27-15 third quarter advantage did the trick in Game 2. All of Detroit’s starters scored in double digits but the Heat shot 50% for the game, while tying an NBA playoff record by making 20 three-pomters (on 38 attempts), on their way to a 107-90 victory. LBJ (27), again got solid support from Irving (22) and Love (16 & 10), plus J.R. Smith chipped in 21. LBJ played in his 180th career postseason game (one more than MJ), as he looks to move to 11-0 all-time in opening round series in his career (his teams are now 42-7 in individual 1st-round games).
The Clippers blew out the Blazers for the second consecutive time in Wednesday’s final game of the night, again led by PG Chris Paul (25 points). Center Jordan scored just three points but had 18 rebounds, plus LA’s bench contributed 43 points. The Blazers lost Game 1 by 20 points and last night’s margin was 21, as Portland connected on just 34.1% (5 of 26 on threes). Lillard and McCollum combined to make only 12 of 39 shots (2 of 13 on threes), after the team’s guard duo went a combined 10 of 28 (4 of 13 on threes) in Game 1.
Wednesday’s 3-0 sweep by home teams make them 14-2 SU and 11-5 ATS to-date in the 2016 postseason. “Under” bettors continue to fill their pockets, as 12 of 16 games have stayed under the total. Those following the Zig-Zag theory opened 3-0 ATS on Monday but are 0-5 the last two nights. It’s a three-game Thursday card, featuring a TNT doubleheader, as all eight series will now switch venues. OKC at Dallas is up first at 7:05 ET, one of just two first round series tied at one-all. Note that all-time, teams taking a 2-0 lead in a seven-game series, have gone on to win 254 of 270 series (that's 94.7 %!). Dallas is hardly 100 percent with Dirk, Williams, Barea, lee and Harris all suffering from various ‘ills,’ but after shooting a woeful 29.8% and scoring just 70 points in Game 1, the Mavs somehow won 85-84 at OKC in Game 2. The Thunder entered Game 2 of the series 5-0 against the Mavs this season, averaging 111.6 PPG. However, OKC was held to 84 points. That said, OKC is favored by 8 1/2 points in Game 3 at Dallas.
The late game on TNT (9:35 ET) is Golden St at Houston. Naturally, the big story is Curry’s ankle but the Rockets look like a mess and the Warriors will likely be just fine without him. The Rockets have lost 14 of their last 15 against the Warriors and Golden St is favored by 5 1/2 points on the road. The Raptors and Pacers (like the OKC/Dal series) are tied at one-all, as the series shifts to Indiana (7:35 ET tip). The Pacers’ George is averaging 30.5 PPG but only Ellis (15.0) joins him in double digits. As for Toronto, can the Raptors really win if DeRozan and Lowry can’t find their shooting ‘eyes?’ DeRozan is 10 of 37 and Lowry 7 of 26, after two games. The Raptors are a 1 1/2-point choice.
Steve's Screenshot
By Steve Merril
Thunder (-9.5, 197.5) at Mavericks
Dallas was terrible in Game 1, but they somehow found a way to win Game 2 as 14-point underdogs. You’d expect a strong bounce back effort by Oklahoma City tonight, especially Kevin Durant who was simply off in the last game. However, the Game 1 line closed at just -12.5 on the Thunder’s home court, so laying -9.5 on the Mavericks’ home court is way too overpriced.
Warriors (-5.5, 216) at Rockets
Golden State is now 5-0 SU versus Houston this season; 3-0 in the regular season and 2-0 in this playoff series. Stephen Curry missed two of those games, and he played sparingly in Game 1 after tweaking his ankle. With or without Curry, the Warriors are simply a superior team to the Rockets.
Playoff Journal
By Larry Ness
Covers.com
OKC and Toronto were not able to ‘hold serve’ at home in their respective series but both walked away with convincing Game 3 victories to earn back the home court edge in their series on Thursday. The Thunder steadily pulled away from the Mavs last night in Dallas, winning in a rout, 131-102. Durant bounced back from an awful shooting performance in Game 2 (7 of 33) to score 34 points (his 30th postseason game of 30-plus points) while Westbrook added 26 points and 15 assists. OKC also got big games from reserves Kanter (21 & 8.) and Waiters (19 points). OKC shot 57.7 percent (15 of 27 on threes), after making 33.7 percent (7 of 32 threes) in Game 2. Dirk Nowitzki put it best, "The way we won Game 2 (85-84) was it was a slower-paced game for us, kind of grind it out. It's going to be tough for us to win a game if they score 131 points. I don't think we can score 131 right now with the team we roll out there, the injuries."
Toronto’s DeRozan (7 of 19) and Lowry (8 of 21) didn’t ‘light it up’ but the guard duo did each score 21 points, as the Raptors took a 2-1 lead in their series against the Pacers with a 101-85 win. A key may have been DeMarre Carroll’s 17-point, five-rebound effort, after the team’s top FA acquisition this year scored a total of just eight points and grabbed only four rebounds in the first two games. The Pacers can’t win this series one-on-five but it’s hard NOT to note that Paul George (28.7 PPG in the series) just doesn’t get much help. Only Ellis (12.3 PPG) and Turner (11.7 PPG, after a 17-point effort in Game 3), join him in double digits this series.
In the final game of the night, the Rockets knocked off the Curry-less Warriors, 97-96. Houston seemingly handed the game to Golden St with a bad late turnover (Livingston converted the go-ahead layup) but Harden bailed out the Rockets, nailing the game-winner with 2.7 seconds remaining. Harden finished with 35 points and for the first time this series, Howard (13 & 13) had a positive plus/minus rating in a game (plus-6). The Rockets had been minus-38 points with Howard on the court in Games 1 and 2. The Warriors shot 43.0 percent, including 6 of 25 from three-point range. Golden St starters were even worse, making just 39.2 percent, including 1 of 12 on three pointers. Will we see Curry in Game 4? Stay tuned.
Home teams went 1-2 SU and ATS, leaving them 15-4 SU and 12-7 ATS through 19 games. Under bettors continue to cash, as 14 of the 19 games so far, have stayed under. The Zig Zag theory is “all over the place.” It was a perfect 3-0 ATS on Monday, then went 0-5 ATS Tuesday and Wednesday, before winning two of three last night. Doing the math, it’s 5-6 or minus-1.6 net games, so far. Three more games are set for Friday, as ESPN or ESPN 2 covers all the action.
The Cavs are in Detroit at 7:05 ET on ESPN, holding a 2-0 lead. Cleveland has dominated the second half in each of the first two contests, outscoring Detroit by a margin of 105-80. The “Big 3” has been just that for the Cavs, with Irving averaging 26.5 PPG, LBJ 24.5-6.0-7.0 and Love 22.0 & 11.5. This is the last chance for the Pistons to make it a series and they are currently a 4 1/2-point home dog. ESPN2 covers Game 3 of the Atlanta/Boston series at 8:05 ET, one in which the Hawks lead 2-0. Bradley, the team's second-leading scorer and best perimeter defender, is out for the series plus Kelly Olynk may also sit out Game 3. The Hawks are an outstanding defensive team and Boston was held to 86.5 PPG on 34.2 percent shooting (25.4 % on threes) in the first two games. However, only the Spurs, Warriors and Raptors have a better home record than the Celtics’ 19-3 mark since Jan 13. Can Boston end it’s seven-game playoff skid tonight? The Celtics are favored by 2 1/2 points.
ESPN has the final game of the night, San Antonio at Memphis (9:35 ET). Memphis was held under 75 points in losing the first two games of this series, the first time that’s happened in back-to-back playoff games to any team since 2010. Memphis enters the contest having lost 12 of its last 13 games overall and will try to snap a seven-game losing streak to the Spurs in this one. Good luck, as so far, San Antonio reserves have outscored Memphis starters the first two games by an average of 50-34 points per contest. The Spurs are favored by 11 /12 points.
Friday's Top Action
By Sportsbook.ag
CLEVELAND CAVALIERS (59-25) at DETROIT PISTONS (44-40)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Cleveland -4.5, Total: 201
The Cavaliers visit Detroit looking to take a 3-0 series lead on Friday.
Although Cleveland has needed to put away the Pistons late in the opening two games of this series, the Cavs looked relatively comfortable in a 17-point Game 2 victory. The team shot 50.0% from the field and hit 20 three-pointers, compared to just four for the Pistons, which made a huge difference in the final score.
Still, Detroit will feel relatively confident heading home, having shown that they can play with the Cavaliers. The team shot poorly from both three-point range and the free-throw line in Game 2, so an improvement in those two categories could lead to a win in Game 3.
The Pistons are 12-3 ATS in home games revenging a loss of 10 or more points this season, while Cleveland is 15-7 ATS when playing just their second game in five days during the same time period.
Detroit has no injury concerns, and Cleveland PG Mo Williams (Knee) is questionable.
The Cavaliers played a sharp Game 2, in which they were led by SF LeBron James (25.3 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 6.8 APG, 1.4 SPG, 52.0 FG% in regular season), who had 27 points on an effective 12-for-18 shooting performance.
PG Kyrie Irving (19.6 PPG, 4.7 APG, 1.1 SPG in regular season) scored 22 points, and SG J.R. Smith (12.4 PPG, 1.1 SPG in regular season) added 21 on 7-for-11 shooting from three-point land.
PF Kevin Love (16.0 PPG, 9.9 RPG in regular season) had a double-double with 16 points and 10 rebounds, and the big man’s play will be crucial to his team’s success in the series.
Detroit saw solid Game 2 performances from C Andre Drummond (16.2 PPG, 14.8 RPG, 1.5 SPG, 1.4 BPG, 52.1 FG% in regular season), who had 20 points and seven rebounds, and SG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (14.5 PPG, 1.5 SPG in regular season), who added 13 points and eight rebounds.
Drummond, however, was a worrisome 4-for-16 from the free-throw line, and PF Marcus Morris (14.1 PPG, 5.1 RPG in regular season) and SF Tobias Harris (14.7 PPG, 6.7 RPG in regular season) had off nights.
The Pistons were 26-15 at home during the regular season, and they are hoping to get a win at The Palace in their first home game of the postseason.
SAN ANTONIO SPURS (69-15) at MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES (42-42)
Sportsbook.ag Line: San Antonio -11, Total: 182
The Spurs aim to open up a 3-0 advantage over the Grizzlies in Memphis on Friday night.
San Antonio was the NBA’s best team at home this season, so a depleted Memphis squad never stood a chance to win away from home.
The injury-riddled Grizzlies averaged just 71 PPG as a team over the first two games, including a 68-point outing in Game 2. The team shot just 32.6% from the field and made only two of its 14 three-point attempts against the stingy Spurs defense.
On the bright side for Memphis is the fact that the team is 11-3 ATS in home games after a road loss this season. The Spurs, however, are 19-9 ATS as a road favorite of 6.5 to 12 points over the past two seasons.
San Antonio will be at full strength, while C Marc Gasol (Foot), PG Mike Conley (Achilles), SG Jordan Adams (Knee) and PF Brandan Wright (Knee) will all be sidelined with injuries for the Grizzlies.
The Spurs have been in complete control thus far in the series, and an all-around performance in which no player played more than 27 minutes characterized Game 2.
PG Patty Mills (8.5 PPG in regular season) paced San Antonio with 16 points off the bench, and PF LaMarcus Aldridge (18.0 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 1.1 BPG in regular season) had 10 points, eight rebounds, and four blocks.
Two-time Defensive Player of the Year SF Kawhi Leonard (21.2 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 1.8 SPG, 1.0 BPG in regular season) contributed 13 points and two steals, and he was the only other starter in double figures.
A similarly well-rounded outing should be expected from the Spurs in Game 3.
Memphis was led by SG Tony Allen (8.4 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 1.7 SPG in regular season), who had 12 points off the bench. PF Zach Randolph (15.3 PPG, 7.8 RPG) was the only other Grizzlies player to reach double-digit points with 11, although he shot just 5-for-17 from the field.
SF Matt Barnes (10.0 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 1.0 SPG in regular season) and PG Jordan Farmar (9.2 PPG, 3.1 APG, 1.3 SPG in regular season) had identical 3-for-11 shooting nights, and the rest of the team was similarly cold.
This series could very easily end in four games, and the Grizzlies are in danger of not being within striking distance in any of the games.
They will need a much better offensive outing if they hope to stay with the Spurs, even in the “Grindhouse” that is the FedExForum.