NBA Playoff Report
By Steve Merril
Covers.com
Cavaliers (-4.5, 200) at Pistons
Detroit went 3-1 SU against Cleveland in the regular season, but the Pistons return home down 0-2 in this playoff series after a 17-point loss in Game 2. However, Detroit is capable of playing with Cleveland as they took the Cavaliers to the brink in Game 1 of this series before losing 106-101. Cleveland’s defense was significantly better under former head coach David Blatt, so taking points against the Cavaliers on the road has some value.
Spurs (-12, 182.5) at Grizzlies
This series is a complete mismatch. San Antonio is up 2-0 with their wins coming by 32 (106-74) and 26 points (94-68). Memphis does not belong in the playoffs. The Grizzlies own a -2.2 point differential on the season, and that’s the 3rd lowest of any playoff team over the last 20 years. Memphis is an extremely short-handed team without Marc Gasol and Mike Conley, and the Grizzlies are 1-12 SU (4-9 ATS) in all games during the past month. San Antonio is an elite team on both ends of the court, and they are now 6-0 SU versus Memphis this season.
Steve's Screenshot
By Steve Merril
Raptors (-1, 195) at Pacers
Indiana is actually in a decent spot to bounce back after losing 101-85 at home on Thursday night. However, Toronto simply holds big matchup advantages over the Pacers, and those trump the situational spot. The Raptors can score at will inside the paint while controlling the glass, and they can also get to the free throw line at a high rate. Indiana needs to shoot a very high percentage just to stay competitive, so it’s difficult to back the Pacers against the Raptors, even in a favorable bounce-back situation.
Thunder (-9, 203) at Mavericks
Oklahoma City was expected to bounce back strong after an embarrassing home loss as 14-point favorites in Game 2. The Thunder delivered in a 131-102 romp as they showed their superiority. However, underdogs off a blowout loss are normally a good play and the Mavericks did win Game 2 in that situation after losing Game 1 by 38 points. The Game 1 line closed at just -12.5 on the Thunder’s home court, so laying -9 on the Mavericks’ home court is an over-inflated line.
Clippers (Pick, 207.5) at Trail Blazers
Portland returns home down 0-2 in this series. Neither game was competitive as Los Angeles won by 20 and 21 points. The Trail Blazers are in a good situational spot for tonight’s game, but the pointspread is way too low to back Portland. The class difference between these two teams is big, so taking the Trail Blazers in a game they have to win to cover presents no value, despite a decent bounce-back situation for the home team.
Playoff Journal
By Larry Ness
Covers.com
The 2016 NBA postseason tipped off back on April 16 with eight opening round series (2-2-1-1-1 format). The first 16 games were all contested with the higher-seed team owning the home court edge and in SIX of the eight series, the the higher seed swept both home games. The two exceptions being the East’s No. 2 seed (Toronto) losing Game 1 at home to the 7th-seed Pacers, before bouncing back to take Game 2. Over the the West, its No. 3 seed (OKC Thunder) blew out the sixth-seeded Mavs in Game 1 by the score of 108-70, only to lose Game 2, 85-84.
Home teams went 14-2 and 11-5 ATS in that set of games, with 12 of the 16 games staying under the closing number. The series then switched venues for two games in a row on the home court of the lower-seeded teams. NBA playoff history tells us that in best-of-seven series, only 16 of 270 previous teams to fall behind 0-2 in a series have come back to eventually win that series. That’s a miniscule 5.9% and in last 55 series to see one team go up 2-0, just TWO of those 55 series saw the team in an 0-2 ‘hole’ come back and win (3.6 percent). The “second set of 16 games” won’t be complete until tonight. However, with the switch in venues and the team with the worst record now owning the home court edge, home teams have gone a more modest 7-7 SU and 8-6 ATS. Unders continue to out-number overs, with NINE of the 14 staying under the total.
Two of the eight opening round series have ended in four-games sweeps, as the East’s No. 1 seed (Cleveland) swept the Detroit Pistons (but just 2-2 ATS), as LBJ is now 11-0 in first round playoff series in his career (his teams have gone 44-7 in individual games). The West’s No. 2 seed (San Antonio) took out the injury-depleted Memphis Grizzlies in a sweep as well, also going 2-2 ATS. Tim Duncan is no longer “the straw that stirs the drink” for the Spurs but with the completion of that series, he has passed Robert Horry for No. 2 in all-time postseason games played with 245 (Horry played in 244). Derek Fisher sits No. 1 all-time at 259. Duncan has now played in 155 winning postseason games, tying him with Horry and placing him second all-time to Fisher (161).
Six series remain and three will be contested tonight, with Miami at Charlotte (7:05 ET) and the LA Clippers at Portland (10:35 ET) playing Game 4s. The Hornets and Blazers both fell behind 0-2 but were able to win their Games 3s at home and both will have a chance to even their respective series at two-all in tonight’s contests. Boston was able to even its series at two-all by winning both home games against Atlanta over the weekend (Friday and Sunday), while the Rockets failed to win Sunday’s Game 4, after a controversial one-point win over the Warriors in Game 3 (last Thursday).
The Warriors won handily 121-94 on Sunday (taking a 3-1 series led) but of course, the biggest news coming out of the Golden St/Houston game was another injury to Steph Curry. He slipped while guarding Trevor Ariza at the first-half buzzer and banged his right knee on the floor. The reigning league MVP (almost assuredly this season’s MVP, as well) grabbed the knee and limped off to the locker room. Curry returned to the court after halftime and moved laterally to test the joint but he stopped and shook his head toward the bench. Shortly thereafter, he headed back to the locker room and was ruled out just after the second half began. He will undergo an MRI on Monday. NBA fans are “holding their collective breath!”
Up first on Monday is the Heat at the Hornets. Miami shot 57.6 and 57.9 percent in Games 1 and 2 at home, taking a 2-0 lead while scoring 123 and 115 points. However, the Heat shot just 34.2 percent (7 of 22 on threes) in Game 3, while scoring only 80 points, as the Hornets used an 18-0 third quarter run to win by 16 points. The victory ended a 12-game franchise postseason losing streak (last playoff victory had come back in 2002), as SIX Charlotte players scored in double digits. The Heat have largely dominated this series over the last seven seasons, winning 26 of the last 31 games but FOUR of the Hornets' five wins have come in the last five meetings in Charlotte. The Hornets are favored by 2 1/2 points in Game 4.
The second half of tonight’s TNT doubleheader will be the Clippers at the Blazers, a contest which will end that second set of 16 games I talked about earlier. Portland’s Lillard and McCollum both came up big in Game 3, as each shot 50 percent from the floor, scoring 32 and 27 points, respectively. The duo had combined to shoot 22 of 67 (32.8%) in the first two games at Staples Center, including 6 of 26 (23.1%) on threes. Despite Lillard’s and McCollum’s efforts, the Clippers led 85-81 in Game 3 with 3:35 remaining. However, as has so often been the case in the postseason for this franchise, closing a team out has been a HUGE issue. The Blazers outscored the Clippers 15-3 down the stretch to win 96-88 and can now even the series with a victory tonight. LA is favored by 3 1/2 points.
The first game of TNT’s doubleheader tonight is the Mavs at the Thunder (8:05 ET). OKC’s first two wins in this series came by 32 points (Game 1) and 29 points (Game 3), while Dallas eked out an 85-84 win in Game 2. Saturday, it was OKC’s turn to win a squeaker, 119-118. That victory gave the Thunder a commanding 3-1 series lead. OKC is favored by 14 1/2 points tonight, with a chance to close out the Mavs.
A quick check of the postseason records to-date. Home teams are 21-9 SU and 19-11 ATS, with 21 unders in the 30 games (70%) played so far. Those following the Zig-Zag theory are 13-9 ATS or plus-3.1 net games (a 4-0 Saturday sweep, sure helped!).
Playoff Journal
By Larry Ness
Covers.com
On Monday afternoon it was reported that Curry will miss at least the next two weeks with a sprained right MCL. An MRI revealed a Grade 1 sprain, the lowest sprain possible. "From our perspective, relatively good news," Warriors GM Bob Myers said Monday. Curry is scheduled to be re-evaluated in two weeks, the team said. Then came this from Monday evening. Chris Paul fractured his right hand with 6:07 left in the third quarter of LA's Game 4 with Portland. He will be re-evaluated on Tuesday in Los Angeles but team sources indicated that surgery will likely be needed and that the normal recovery time for the injury is anywhere from three to six weeks. Barring a better prognosis from new X-rays after swelling has subsided, Paul is unlikely to return this season.
"It doesn't look good for him," Clippers head coach Doc Rivers said. Shortly after Paul suffered his injury, Blake Griffin suffered a left quad injury that limited him in the fourth quarter before he sat out the final 5:48 of the game."It's tough," Griffin said. "It's not easy dealing with injuries, especially this time of year." Rivers said there was a "50-50" chance Griffin would be available for Wednesday's Game 5. "It doesn't look good for him, either" Rivers said.
The Blazers pulled away in the 4th quarter of last night's game, outscoring the Clippers 32-20 in a 98-84 win which evened the series at two-all. Aminu scored a career high 30 points (added 10 rebounds) plus Mason Plumlee had a second straight strong game. After grabbing 21 rebounds and handing out nine assists in Game 3, he had 14 rebounds and dished out 10 assists last night. In Monday's other Game 4, the Hornets evened their series with the Heat at two-all with an 89-85 victory.
Kemba Walker scored a career playoff-high 34 points, while Lin added 21 points off the bench (he led all Hornets in Game 3's win with 18 points). The Heat again had MAJOR problems on the offensive end of the court. Miami won Games 1 and 2 at home while scoring 123 points (on 57.6% shooting) and 115 points (on 57.9% shooting) but after scoring only 80 points in Game 3 (on 34.2% shooting), the Heat didn't do much better in Game 4, scoring 85 points on 39.5% shooting.
With those two Game 4s "in the books," home teams went 9-7 SU (10-6 ATS) in this second set of 16 games (home teams being the lower-seeded team), after going 14-2 (11-5) in the first set of 16 games, where the higher-seeded team was at home. The first series to reach a Game 5 was Dallas/OKC and the Thunder eliminated the Mavs last night with a 118-104 victory. Westbrook had 36-12-9 and Durant scored 33, after his 19-point effort in Game 4. Starting center Adams had 15 & 10, just his second career playoff double-double, in his 23rd career postseason contest. The Mavs had SIX players reach double digits but they couldn't match the Thunder score-for-score.
Two more Game 5s are on tap Tuesday, as TNT covers both. Home teams are 24-9 SU so far, going 21-12 ATS (63.6%). Twenty-three of the 33 games have stayed "under " (that's 70%!) and "Zig-Zaggers" check in at 14-11 or plus-1.9 net games. The Pacers are at the Raptors at 6:05 ET, followed by the Celtics at the Hawks at 8:35 ET. Both series are deadlocked at two-all. Toronto and Atlanta are both favored by seven points.
Playoff Journal
By Larry Ness
Covers.com
Tuesday saw both home teams win, as the Raptors and Hawks each took 3-2 leads in their respective series. However, Toronto and Atlanta took very different journeys in their Game 5 victories.The Pacers took a 35-20 first quarter lead in Toronto last night and entered the fourth quarter holding a 90-77 advantage. Paul George scored 37 points through the game's first three quarters but NOTHING went right for the Pacers in last night's final period, as Toronto rallied for a 102-99 win.
Indiana's first points of the final period didn't come until there was 7:41 remaining in the game and George's ONLY two points of the final quarter didn't come until 2:27 left but by then, Toronto had outscored Indiana 21-2! George's basket made it 98-94 and the final margin of victory would be three points. A flurry of Indiana turnovers and a 4 of 18 shooting performance from the Pacers allowed the Raptors to win last night's fourth quarter, 25-9. DeRozan finally had the breakout game the Raptors had been waiting for, scoring 34 points. After failing to get to the free throw line in TWO of the series' first four games, Toronto's leading scorer converted 12 of 13 last night. Biyombo (10 & 16) plus Powell (10 points) provided outstanding play off the bench.
Boston took a 20-15 led at the end of the first quarter last night in Atlanta but the Hawks then blew away the Celtics by outscoring them 32-19 in the second quarter and 42-23 in the third. Atlanta led 89-62 entering the fourth and won 110-83. After scoring a career- high 45 points in a Game 4 loss, Atlanta's Millsap had a modest line of 10-8-6 but he was one of FIVE double digit Atlanta scorers. Scott led all Hawks with 17 points off the bench, as Atlanta reserves totaled 49 points.The Hawks have now won 13 of their last 15 at home and the Celtics have now shot a combined 35.2 percent, including 25.0 percent on threes, in the three games played in Atlanta this series.
Three games are on Wednesday's schedule, with home teams sitting 26-11 SU (.714) and 22-13 ATS (62.9%), while 24 of the 35 games have gone under (68.6%). Those following the Zig Zag theory are 15-12 or plus 1.8 net games. The TNT doubleheader features the Hornets at the Hawks at 8:05 ET (series tied at 2-2) and then the Rockets at the Warriors at 10:35 ET (Golden St leads 3-1). NBA TV has the Blazers at the Clippers at 10:05 ET (series tied 2-2).
The Heat shot right around 58% in Games 1 and 2 at home, scoring 123 and 115 points in opening a 2-0 lead. However, Miami scored just 80 points in Game 3 at Charlotte (on 34.2%), then just 85 points in a Game 4 loss (on 39.5%). However, history is on Miami's side tonight, as the Heat are 13-2 over their last 15 home playoff games. Yes, LBJ was with the Heat for all but TWO of those contests, but the Hornets last won a road playoff game in 2002 (NINE straight losses). Also note that the Hornets have lost 19 of their last 21 visits to Miami (regular and postseason). Miami is favored by six points.
The Warriors take the court tonight looking to close out the Rockets but of course, will be without Steph Curry. However, the Warriors were just fine without him in the second half of Game 4 in Houston, outscoring the Rockets 41-20 in the third quarter, en route to a 121-94 win. Harden is averaging a modest 24.5 PPG (for him) in the series, while shooting just 37.7 percent, including only 28.6 percent on threes. Howard has delivered double-doubles in all four games but could someone averaging 14.5 & 12.3 be any QUIETER? Golden St is favored by 9 1/2 points.
The Clippers not only lost Game 4 in Portland 98-84 (allowing the Blazers to even the series at 2-all) but in the process, Chris Paul and Blake Griffin suffered season-ending injuries. Portland is favored by three points. Can the Clippers re-group and win this series? Either way, the Warriors HAVE to be feeling a little better about Curry's injury situation, knowing that if they get by Houston, they'll meet either a Paul and Griffin-less LA team or Portland in the second round.
Playoff Journal
By Larry Ness
Covers.com
The Charlotte Hornets were once down 0-2 in their series with the Miami Heat but after a 90-88 win last night, the Hornets own a 3-2 lead. Charlotte made 12 of 24 three-pointers in Game 5, compared to Miami's 5 of 18 shooting from three-point range. Marvin Williams led all Charlotte scorers with 17 points (also had eight rebounds), connecting on SEVEN of 10 FGs. This from a guy who shot a combined 1 of 17 in the first two games of this series. Williams had 12 & 14 in Game 3 but went 0-for-5 in Game 4, without scoring (what a strange series he's had!).
All five of Miami's scorers reached double digits, led by Wade's 25 points. Whiteside had 11 & 12 and is averaging a double-double for the series (14.0-12.2) but Miami connected on a modest 42.0 percent for the game, after shooting just barely under 58 percent in each of its first two home wins.The Hornets' road win ended a 14-year playoff drought which included NINE consecutive road playoff defeats since a win in 2002 (note: the Hornets are only 9-25 all-time in playoff road games).
Like the Hornets, the Blazers quickly fell behind 0-2 in their series with the Clippers, and EXACTLY like the Hornets, the Blazers also find themselves leading their opening round series, 3-2. Without Paul or Griffin, the Clippers placed six players in double digits but the team connected on only 41.9 percent of its shots, including 6 of 20 on threes. Redick led with 19 points plus Crawford and Green each had 17 (Jordan had 16 & 17). However, after taking a 50-45 led at the half, the Clippers could not maintain that lead, as the Blazers won the second half by outscoring LA 63-48.
McCollum led Portland with 27 points, Lillard had 22 and center Mason Plumlee had 10 & 15. Plumlee contributed four points and five rebounds over 19 minutes in Game 1. However, he's averaged 31.5 minutes the last four games (three straight wins for the Blazers), averaging 8.8 points but 15.0 rebounds and 7.5 Assists. Who'da thunk that?
With Curry cheering on the Warriors from the bench, Golden St had little trouble sending the Rockets home for the summer. The Warriors led 37-20 after one quarter and 59-37 at the half, in a 114-81 rout. Thompson had 27 points (made 7 of 11, three-pointers), Green 15-9-8 and Livingston 16. Livingston has started in Curry's place three times this series (in Games 2, 3 and 5), each time scoring 16 points, while connecting on 20 of 30 (66.7 percent) of his FG attempts (not a SINGLE one of them being a three-pointer!).
Harden had 35 points for the Rockets while Howard scored just eight points, going 3 of 13 from the floor (BTW...It marked the first time he attempted more than 10 FGs in any game this seres). Howard averaged 13.2 & 14.0 over the five games but was a complete non-factor. The Warriors beat the Rockets for the 16th time in the last 18 meetings and in the final six quarters of the series (playing without Curry), outscored Houston 179-119!
There is just ONE game on tonight's playoff schedule, Atlanta at Boston (8:05 ET on TNT). Home teams check in at 26-12 (.684), going 23-15 (60.5%) ATS. Twenty-six of the 38 games have stayed under (68.4%) and after an 0-3 Wednesday, "Zig-Zaggers" are 15-15 ATS, or minus-1.5 net games. The Hawks/Celtics series has seen the home team win all five games, with the home side covering each of the last four.
The following is ancient history but what the hell, I'll mention it anyway. The ONLY time the Hawks have beaten the Celtics in a playoff series came back in the 1958 NBA Finals, when the Bob Pettit-led StL Hawks ousted Bill Russell and the Boston Celtics in Game 6 (Russell's second season). The Hawks have since lost NINE consecutive series to the Celtics and enter tonight's game on a 10-game playoff losing streak in Boston (Hawks have lost 27of their last 29 postseason games played in Boston). However, the Hawks are favored by two points.
Playoff Journal
By Larry Ness
Covers.com
The Hawks eliminated the Celtics last night with a 104-92 victory in Game 6 at Boston. Atlanta led 41-33 at the half, then blew the game open with a 39-point third quarter (shot 74 percent), which gave them a 21-point lead to open the final period. All five Atlanta starters scored in double digits (Millsap led the way with 17) plus Schroeder added 12 off the bench. The Hawks connected on 51.4% as a team. Meanwhile, the Celtics shot 36.2 percent (7 of 32 on threes), as guards Thomas, Turner and Smart combined to go 17 of 52 (32.7%), including a WOEFUL 1 of 14 on threes!
The Hawks exorcised a number of playoff 'demons' from the past with last night's win. The victory ended a string of 10 consecutive road playoff losses in Boston (going back to 1988) and more importantly, the series win marks the Hawks' first since the then-St Louis Hawks bested the Boston Celtics in the 1958 NBA Finals. The Hawks had lost NINE playoff series in a row to the Celtics since that win in 1958, until last night! Home teams are now 26-13 (.667) in the 2016 playoffs and 23-16 ATS (59.0%). Twenty-seven of 39 games have gone under (69.2%) and "Zig-Zaggers" are 15-16 or minus-2.6 net games.
Friday features three Game 6s, as Miami, Indiana and the LA Clippers all face elimination. The Pacers are the lone team of that group to get a home game. In SIX of the eight opening round series, the higher seeded team jumped out to a 2-0 lead. I noted then that in NBA playoff history, teams falling into an 0-2 'hole' were able to come back and win just 16 times in 270 best-of-seven series (only 5.9%).
So far in the 2016 postseason, the Cavs and Spurs completed 4-0 sweeps plus the Warriors (4-1) and Hawks (4-2) were able to finish off their respective opponents after going up 2-0. That makes it 258 teams having gone on to win a best-of-seven series in 274 tries, after going up 2-0 (that's 94.1%!). A more recent sample size points out that just TWO of the last 59 teams to fall behind 0-2 in a best-of-seven series have been able to rebound a win (only 3.4%). However, that could change tonight, as the ESPN doubleheader features Charlotte hosting Miami (8:05 ET), followed by Portland hosting the LA Clippers (10:35 ET). Both the Hornets and Blazers fell behind 0-2 in their respective series but both have rebounded to win THREE in a row. Now each team has a chance to close out their opponents tonight, at home.
The Hornets lost Games 1 and 2 at Miami by a combined 44 points but despite shooting just 40.7 percent for the series, have won three straight games. Credit Charlotte's defense, which after allowing Miami to average 119.0 points on 57.8% shooting in Games 1 and 2, the Hornets have held the Heat to 84.3 points on 38.6% shooting, since. The Hornets can claim their first playoff series win since 2002 by winning tonight. Charlotte is a modest two point favorite.
The Blazers lost Games 1 and 2 in LA but in Portland's Game 4 win (which tied the series at two-all), the Clippers lost both Chris Paul and Blake Griffin for the remainder of the playoffs due to injury. The Clippers have shot just 39.5% (25.4% on threes) in three straight losses and if Game 5 is any indication, don't have the 'firepower' to compete with Portland. Portland guards McCollum and Lillard have averaged 24.3 and 22.0 points, respectively, in the Blazers' three straight wins. Plus, center Mason Plumlee has been a HUGE surprise, averaging 16.7 rebounds and 7.7 assists, as Portland has taken a 3-2 lead. After the Blazers lost Game 1, it was pointed out that the Blazers were just 3-26 all-time, when losing Game 1 of a playoff series. Now, the Blazers are favored by 10 points in tonight's Game 6, with a chance to advance and play the Warriors.
The Pacers can stave off elimination tonight at home (NBA TV at 7:35 ET), when they host the Raptors. Can they overcome their Game 5 meltdown, one in which they were outscored 25-9 in the 4th quarter of a 102-99 loss in Toronto? The Raptors are hoping to claim the franchise's first-ever seven-game series win. Toronto is just 1-7 all-time in postseason series, with its lone win coming over the Knicks back in 2001. The Pacers are favored by two points.
Playoff Journal
By Larry Ness
Covers.com
The opening round of the 2016 postseason was completed on Sunday, as Miami and Toronto won Game 7s at home. That’s hardly news, as in NBA playoff history, home teams are now 99-24 (.805). The Heat had no trouble at all in putting away the Hornets, as Miami won its fourth straight Game 7. Dragic led the way with 25 points, while Whiteside chipped in 10 & 12 (averaged a double-double for the series at 13.1 & 11.4). Neither Wade nor Deng did anything special but outstanding efforts were not needed. Wade averaged 19.-5.4-5.0 for the series and Deng averaged 19.0 PPG, up from just 12.3 in the regular season. Charlotte came into Game 7 shooting just 40.9 percent through six games and ‘laid an egg.’ The team shot 32.1 percent with the two biggest culprits being Walker (3 of 16) and Kaminsky (3 of 15).
The Raptors NEVER do anything easy and that was the case again on Sunday night, as they let almost ALL of a 16-point 4th quarter lead evaporate, before winning 89-84. The three-time defending Atlantic Division champs finally got past the first round (had lost to the Nets and Wizards the previous two seasons), in winning the first seven-game series in franchise history (21st year). The team's only previous series win came back in 2001 against the NY Knicks (a five-game series) and Sunday’s win makes Toronto only 2-7 all-time in playoff series. Yes, DeRozan scored 30 points but he shot 10 of 32. He made just 31.9 percent (16.7% on threes) for the series and backcourt mate Lowry made 31.6 percent over the seven games, including 16.3% on threes.
Wrapping up the first round, home teams went 30-14 SU (.681) and 25-19 ATS (56.8%). Thirty-one of the 44 games stared under (70.5 percent!).The Western Conference semis opened Saturday with San Antonio’s 124-92 rout of OKC and the other series began Sunday afternoon, as the Curry-less Warriors took care of the Blazers, 118-102. Thompson had 37 points, connecting on 7 of 14 three-pointers (he’s made seven three-pointers each of the last three games, becoming the first player to do so in the postseason). Green (23-13-11) added his second career postseason triple-double, as all five starters scored in double digits (7th straight Game 1 win by Golden St). Portland's backcourt of Lillard (8 of 26) and McCollum (5 of 17) combined to make 30.2 percent from the floor, as Portland shot just 40.2 percent as a team (10 of 31 on threes).
Action continues tonight with a TNT doubleheader, Atlanta in Cleveland at 8:05 ET (opening one of two Eastern Conference semifinals) and OKC in San Antonio at 10:35 ET, with the Spurs up 1-0 in that series. Home teams are 32-14 SU (.696) and 27-19 ATS (58.7%) with 31 of 46 games staying under (67.4%). The Cavs swept the Hawks 4-0 in last year’s Eastern Conference Finals, as LBJ averaged 30.3-11.0-9.3. Could rust be a factor? The Cavs haven’t played since April 24. Cleveland is about a 6-to-1 favorite to win the series and is favored by 7 1/2 points in Game 1. Durant and Westbrook were a combined 11 of 34 (32.4%) in Game 1, while the Spurs were led by Aldridge (38) and Leonard (25). The Big 3” of Duncan, Ginobili and Parker attempted just 16 FGs and combined for a modest 16 points. However, Saturday’s victory marked the 700th winning game that trio has played in together. San Antonio is favored by 7 1/2 points.
Playoff Journa
By Larry Ness
Covers.com
The top-four seeds all advanced past the opening round in the Eastern Conference for the first time since 2010. The Hawks (4) and Cavs (1) opened their series last night, with Cleveland getting a pretty good scare. There were worries of possible rust facing the Cavs (hadn’t played since 4/24) but Cleveland would have none of that. However, after building an 18-point lead in the second half, Al Horford’s basket at the 8:00-minute mark of the fourth quarter put the Hawks up 80-79. J.R.. Smith’s three-pointer with 4:05 remaining in the game put the Cavs ahead for good and sparked a game-ending 17-5 run. The final was 104-93, the Cavs’ NINTH straight postseason win over the Hawks.
LBJ led Cleveland with 25-7-9, while Irving had 21 and Love 17 & 11. Love shot just 4 of 17 though, plus tweaked his the shoulder. Love’s dislocated left shoulder ended his first postseason last year and he banged his right shoulder in the fourth quarter last night when he pump-faked Bazemore into the air and drew contact while shooting a three-pointer. During a timeout, one of Cleveland's medical personnel worked on Love, who stayed in the game. "I'm fine," said Love, who made two of his free throws. "I can't catch a break with my shoulders." The Hawks were led by Schroeder’s playoff career-high 27 points but the starting backcourt of Teague and Korver, flopped. Teague scored just eight points (2 of 9 FGs) plus Korber attempted just ONE shot (he missed) in 37 minutes (he scored only THREE points in the game).
Game 2 of the Thunder/Spurs series had a little controversy in the game’s final seconds but one HAD to be impressed the way the Thunder rebounded from their 32-point Game 1 loss to even this series with a 98-97 win. Durant and Westbrook combined to shoot just 11 of 34 (32.4%) in Game 1 but combined to make 50 percent in Game 2 (22 of 44). Westbrook had 29-7-10 and Durant 28 points. Adams played VERY well at center (12 & 17), while Kanter came off the bench to add 12 & 8. Aldridge scored 38 points in leading the Spurs to that Game 1 rout and he topped that point total in Game 2, scoring 41 points (15 of 21 FGs). However, Leonard scored just 14 points (down from 25 in Game 1), while the other three starters (Duncan, Parker and Green) combined for only 18 points. Excluding Aldridge, San Antonio’s other four starters made only 14 of 46 (30.4 percent). This same San Antonio team connected on 60.7 percent in Game 1, including 9 of 15 on threes.
TNT airs a doubleheader tonight, as the Heat (3) and Raptors (2) open their series at 8:05 ET and the Blazers and Warriors play Game 2 of theirs at 10:35 ET. Home teams are 3-1 SU and ATS in the early going of the semifinals, with two games games going over and two going under (both of Monday’s games). Home teams are 33-15 SU (.625) and 28-20 ATS (58.3%) in the playoffs to-date, with 33 of the 48 (68.8%) staying under. Miami and Toronto meet in the postseason for the first time, each coming off seven-game series in the opening round. The Raptors are –150 to win the series and are favored by 4 1/2 points in Game 1. The Warriors will be without Curry again in Game 2 but so far, Golden St has had little trouble with Houston and Portland, so far. The Warriors are favored by 10 points in Game 2.
Playoff Journal
By Larry Ness
Covers.com
The last of the four semifinal series got underway last night and once again, the Toronto Raptors find themselves “behind the eight-ball.” Toronto made up a six-point deficit in the last 20 seconds of regulation (capped by Lowry’s half-court three-pointer at the buzzer), but couldn’t carry that positive mojo into the OT period. The Raptors went scoreless through the first 3:46 of the extra period and got outscored 12-6 in a 102-96 Miami win. Lowry’s three-point ‘miracle’ was his ONLY long-distance make of the game (1 of 7), as he shot 3 of 13 from the floor. He’s now shooting 30.6 percent in the postseason (13.0 PPG, down from 21.2 in the regular season), including making just 8 of 50 (16.0%) three-pointers. DeRozan scored 22 points but made only 9 of 22 (now shooting 33.1% in the playoffs). Can Toronto possibly advance if their two star guards continue to shoot this poorly? The Heat saw four of their five starters reach double digits, with only Whiteside (9) falling short. However, he had 17 rebounds, upping his playoff average to 12.1 through eight games (he’s averaging 12.6 PPG). Dragic (26) and Wade (24) led the way for Miami.
The Warriors jumped on the Blazers early in Game 1, cruising to a 118-106 win. However, it was the Blazers who came out strong in Game 2 and Portland took an 87-76 lead into the fourth quarter. Yes, the Warriors didn’t take their first lead of the game until 5:33 was left but in the end, Golden St outscored Portland 34-12 in the final period to win AND cover, 110-99. Lillard (25) and McCollum (22) played better than in Game 1 but that duo can’t match the Warriors’ depth. Bogut was the lone starter not to reach double digits, as Thompson (27 points) and Green (17-14-7) led the way. Iquodala added 15 points off the bench.The Warriors won their sixth straight home game over the Blazers (all wins by double digits) and since the start of the 2003-04 season, are 21-5 in Oakland against Portland.
Home teams stand at 4-2 SU and ATS in this second round, with three games going over and three going under. There have been 50 playoff games so far, with home teams going 34-16 (.680) and 29-21 ATS (58.0%). Thirty-four of the 50 have stayed under (68.0%). Just one game on tap tonight, as the Hawks and Cavs meet in Cleveland for Game 2 at 8:05 ET on TNT. Cleveland built an 18-point lead in the second half of Game 1 but Al Horford’s basket at the 8:00-minute mark of the fourth quarter put the Hawks up 80-79. J.R.. Smith’s three-pointer with 4:05 remaining in the game put the Cavs ahead for good and sparked a game-ending 17-5 run. The final was 104-93, as the Cavs’ won a NINTH straight postseason game over the Hawks. The Cavs are favored by 7 1/2 points in Game 2.
Playoff Journal
By Larry Ness
Covers.com
The Hawks made the Cavs work for their Game 1 win but Game 2 was a ‘horse of a different color.’ Cleveland was ‘unconscious’ from behind the arc, making 18 three-pointers in the first half alone, on its way to an all-time, single-game record (regular or postseason) of 25 made three-points (Cavs attempted 45). Ten different players connected from behind the arc with J.R. Smith leading the long distance barrage (7 of 13), finishing with 23 points. LBJ had 27-4-5 (he’s now tied for 13th with Robert Parish for career playoff games at 184), Irving 19 and Love 11 & 13. Schroeder bailed out Atlanta’s backcourt in Game 1 with 27 points but he scored only FIVE points in Game 2 and once again the Hawks’ backcourt duo of Teague and Korber did little (combined 6 of 17 shooting for 21 points). The Cavs are 6-0 to open the 2016 postseason and own 10 consecutive playoff wins over the Hawks.
Home teams are 5-2 SU and ATS in the second round, the over is 4-3 and “Zig-Zaggers” are 1-2 ATS. Overall this postseason, home teams are 35-16 SU (.686), 30-21 ATS (58.8%) and 34 of 51 games have stayed under (66.7%). Those following the Zig-Zag theory are 18-21 or minus-5.1 net games. ESPN airs tonight’s Game 2 of the Miami/Toronto series at 8:05 ET, as the Raptors face a second consecutive “must win” Game 2 situation (lost Game 1 of their opening round series to the Pacers). DeRozan and Lowry have struggled all postseason (exception being DeRozan’s efforts in Game 5 & 7 vs Indiana) and that duo can’t be outscored 50-29 by the Miami duo of Dragic and Wade again like in Game 1), if Toronto hopes to even the series. The Raptors are favored by 4 1/2 points.
Playoff Journal
By Larry Ness
Covers.com
All four semifinal series will have completed four games by the end of play on Monday. The Cavs and Warriors, last year’s NBA finalists, both took 2-0 leads in their respective series. The Warriors (likely without Curry again) will look to go up 3-1 on the Blazers tonight at Portland in Game 4 (more on that later), while the Cavs eliminated the Hawks on Sunday, 100-99. Atlanta had no answer for Cleveland’s three-point shooting in the series, as the Cavs knocked down an NBA single-game record of 25 in Game 2 and another 21 from long distance in Game 3. The “Big Three” have been “just that” this postseason, with Irving averaging 24.4 PPG, LBJ 23.5-7.3-8.8 and Love 18.9 & 12.5. The Cavs are making 46.2 percent of their threes en route to an 8-0 SU and 5-3 ATS playoff run (own 12 straight playoff wins over the Hawks).
As noted in previous journals, teams falling into an 0-2 ‘hole ‘ in a best-of-seven series, rarely come back to win. Just 17 of the 263 teams to fall behind 0-2 have come back to win a best-of-seven series in NBA history (that’s 6.5%!), with Cleveland eliminating Atlanta on Sunday. The Spurs jumped out to a 27-17 first-quarter lead at OKC last night but the Thunder used a HUGE fourth quarter to even that series at two-all. The Spurs led 85-79 with a 11:04 left in the game but Durant’s two FTs at the 9:12 mark sparked a 25-10 closing run by the Thunder. In all, the Thunder outscored the Spurs 34-16 in the final period for a 111-97 victory.
Durant matched a playoff high with 41 points and Westbrook added 14-7-15. OKC’s center duo of Adams (16 & 11) and Kanter (11 & 8.) played very well, as OKC shot 50.6 percent as a team. The Spurs not only suffered an unlikely 4th quarter collapse but two starters, Duncan and Green, each were scoreless. Parker (22), Leonard (21) and Aldridge (20) all reached 20 points but the Spurs made just TWO of 12 from three-point range (entered the contest making 49.5% on three for the postseason). Home teams are now 8-6 SU and ATS in the second round with seven overs and seven unders, while “Zig-Zaggers” are 5-5. Postseason numbers to-date numbers are 38-20 (.655) and 33-25 ATS (56.9%), with 38 of the 56 games going under (65.6%) and Zig Zag followers at 22-24 ATS (minus-4.4 net games).
TNT covers tonight’s doubleheader of Game 4s, with Toronto at Miami (Raptors lead 2-1) up first at 8:00 ET, followed by Golden St at Portland (Warriors are up 2-1) at 10:30 ET. Hassan Whiteside has a sprained MCL (right knee) and the man who led the NBA in blocks during the regular season at 3.7 per game is listed as doubtful for Game 4. He averaged 14.2 & 11.8 during the regular season and has averaged 12.0 & 10.9 this postseason. He will be missed but so will Toronto’s Jonas Valanciunas, as the Raptors have said he won’t return this series, after spraining his right ankle in Game 3. How important has he been to Toronto? The Raptors are plus-41 points with him on the court and minus-39 points without him. The Heat are favored by 5 1/2 points.
The Warriors say Curry is doubtful for Game 4 and Golden St will need more than just Green and Thompson contributing to win Game 4. Green had 37 and Thompson 35 in Game 3 but no other Warrior took more than EIGHT shots. Lillard is averaging 31.7 PPG in the series for Portland and has made 18 of his 32 three-point attempts (56.3%). Golden St is favored by 4 1/2points.
Playoff Journal
By Larry Ness
Covers.com
Both of Monday’s games went into OT and in the case of the Toronto/Miami contest, it marked the third OT game in the series so far (out of four). Monday’s game was tight throughout, although Toronto used a 27-16 third quarter to take a 62-60 lead into the fourth. A Ross three-pointer with about 6 1/2 minutes to go gave the Raptors a 77-68 lead but Miami would come back, ending regulation on a 15-6 run which sent the game into OT tied at 83-all. Miami would win 94-87 and was able to ‘sneak out’ a cover. Wade led the Heat with 30 points, as Miami evened the series despite going a awful 1 of 15 on threes. Toronto’s backcourt duo again ‘shot blanks!’ DeRozan had just NINE points, making 4 of 17 from the floor. The team's leading scorer is now shooting a woeful 33.0 percent in the postseason. Lowry led Toronto to victory in Game 3 but he returned to his ‘brick laying’ ways in Game 4, shooting 2 of 11, including 0-6 on threes (he had 10 points). Lowry is shooting 33.1 percent in the postseason and that includes a MISERABLE 14 of 71 on threes (19.7 percent)!
After a good warm-up, the Warriors decided to let Curry play and he entered Monday’s Game 4 with just under 6:00 minutes to go in the first quarter. However, by that time, the Blazers had jumped out to a 16-2 lead. Golden St fought its way back and trailed 67-57 at the half, despite Portland’s 41-point second quarter (Warriors scored 39 in the 2nd!). The Warriors then used a 29-19 third quarter to take a one point lead into the 4th. Curry’s first made three-pointer came with 4:35 left in regulation but it was Barnes’ three, which sent the game into OT tied at 111-all. It was then “The Steph Curry Show” in the extra period, as the two-time MVP scored 17 points in OT (setting an NBA record, regular or postseason), as the Warriors won 132-125. Curry finished with 40 points, Thompson had 23 and Green 21-9-5. Lillard had 36 points (not quite matching Curry) and McCollum had 24 but Portland's backcourt duo shot a combined 18 of 53, just 34.0 percent. The Warriors are now 11-0 SU and 8-3 ATS following a loss this season.
Home teams check in at 9-7 SU and ATS in the semifinals, with over/under bettors going 8-8. “Zig-Zaggers” got the cash in both games last night (OT being the salvation in each case) and are now 7-5 ATS in the second round. Checking in on there postseason numbers to-date, it’s 39-21 SU (.650) for home teams, which are 34-26 ATS (56.7%). There have been 39 unders in the 60 games (that’s 65.0%) and those following the Zig Zag theory are 24-24 (minus-2.4 net games). Just ONE game tonight but as the The Donald would say, “it’s YUGE!” The Thunder and Spurs are tied at two-all and Game 5 goes tonight in San Antonio at 8:00 ET on TNT.
Durant is coming off a 41-point effort in Game 4 and is averaging 31.7 PPG since getting only 16 points in Game 1 (a SA blowout win). Westbrook is shooting just 33.3 percent in the series but is averaging 22.0 PPG and 10.5 APG. OKC’s dueling centers have been very good, as starter Adams is averaging 9.8 & 12.3 (has reached double digits in rebounds in all four games) and backup Kanter has added 9.3 & 6.3. The Spurs are hoping that a return to San Antonio will help Aldridge. He scored 79 points in Games 1 and 2 at home (on 33 of 44 shooting for 75.0%) but scored a more modest 44 points while connecting on 16 of 39 (41.0%) in the two games at OKC. The Spurs are favored by seven points.
Playoff Journal
By Larry Ness
Covers.com
The Spurs fell apart in the fourth quarter of their Game meeting with the Thunder in OKC and again last night, could not stand up to the Thunder, this time at home. The two Western Conference rivals met in Tuesday’s lone contest, tied at two-all. Both team were aware that the winner of Game 5 (when a best of seven series is tied at two-all) has gone on to take that series 83 percent of the time. The Spurs fell behind early but a 32-21 second quarter gave them a 48-43 lead at the half. The game entered the fourth quarter with the Spurs up by three points and after a Leonard steal and layup, San Antonio led 88-82 with four minutes remaining.
However, the Thunder scored the next EIGHT points to go up 90-88 and would up ending the game on a 13-3 run over the game’s final four minutes. Westbrook scored seven points in that span, finishing with a game-high 35 points, while adding 11 rebounds and nine assists. Durant had 23 plus the center combo of Adams and Kanter continued their effectiveness. Adams had 12 & 11 (has now reached double digits in rebounding in all five games), while Kanter added 8 & 13. OKC out-rebounded San Antonio 54-36. Leonard led the Spurs with 26, Aldridge added 20 & 9 and Green had his best game of the series with 20. However, San Antonio’s “Big 3” looks bad these days. Duncan played 28 minutes but made only 1 of 6 shots for five points and three rebounds. Parker was just 4 of 12 from the floor for nine points. Ginobili scored three points off the bench.
Duncan has seemingly aged 10 years this postseason and is averaging 3.4 & 3.6 in the series. Parker is averaging 11.8 PPG and 6.2 APG but has averaged a pathetic 6.0 PPG in the three contests in Sn Antonio. Ginobili is averaging 6.8 PPG in the series, in 18.6 MPG off the bench. The Spurs were 40-1 SU at home during the regular season and won their first three home playoff games. They’ve now lost TWO home games in a row and if they can't win at OKC in Game 6, they won’t get another game at home. Home teams fell to 9-8 SU and ATS in the semifinals and last night’s under makes it 8 overs and nine unders. “Zig-Zaggers” lost with the Spurs and are now 7-6 ATS in the second round.
Checking in on the postseason numbers to-date, it’s 39-22 SU (.639) for home teams and 34-27 ATS (55.7%). There have been 40 unders in the 61 games (that’s 65.6%) and those following the Zig Zag theory are 24-25 (minus-3.5 net games). TNT gets a doubleheader tonight, Miami at Toronto in a Game 5 at 8:00 ET, with that series tied at two-all (see above for the importance of the contest). The second half of the doubleheader has Portland in Oakland to take on Golden St at 10:30 ET, as the Warriors look to eliminate the Blazers (lead the series 3-1).
Both Miami and Toronto will be without their starting centers and considering THREE of the first four games in this series reached OT, another close one should be expected. Is it possible that the Raptors can win this series if DeRozan and Lowry continue their AWFUL shooting? See Monday’s journal for the ‘ugly’ details. Toronto is favored by 4 1/2 points. The Blazers had excellent chances to win Game 2 in Oakland (led 87-76 heading into the 4th quarter) and of course in Game 4 in Portland, which went into OT. However, Curry went 10 of 14 in the fourth quarter and OT in Game 4, setting an all-time NBA mark with 17 points in the OT period. Thompson is averaging 30.5 PPG for the series and Green 24.5-11.3-7.8. Anyone really thinking of taking Portland on the moneyline in this one. Golden St is favored by 13 points.
Playoff Journal
By Larry Ness
Covers.com
The Raptors needed DeRozan and Lowry to “step up” and the backcourt duo did just that. Toronto jumped all over Miami early (led 17-4 at the 6:00-minute mark of the first period) but as it always seems with the Raptors, NOTHING comes easy. The Heat would cut the lead to 88-87 with 1:54 left in the game but Toronto prevailed 99-91, winning that all-important Game 5, taking a 3-2 lead. DeRozan and Lowry had struggled all postseason (with a a few rare exceptions) but both came through last night. DeRozan scored 34 points and Lowry 25, as the two combined to make 20-of-47 from the floor, including 5-of-10 three-pointers. Miami’s backcourt of Wade (20) and Dragic (13) were out-played all game, as each wound up shooting 6 of 14 from the floor.
In last night’s second game, the defending champs eliminated the Blazers by winning Game 5, 125-121. The Blazers were VERY competitive all series and in this one, trailed just 118-116 with 1:21 remaining in the contest. Curry’s three-pointer with 24 seconds basically sealed the deal. Thompson led with 33 points (he averaged 31.0 PPG in the series, connecting on 28 of 56 three-pointers), with Curry adding 20, Green 13-11-6 and the bench chipping in 38 points. Portland’s guard duo of Lillard (28) and McCollum (27) fought hard but matching the “Splash Brothers” proved to be too much. Golden St shot 51.2 percent as a team and Portland 41.2 percent (plus missed 10 of 29 FTs) but the Blazers still lost by only FOUR points.
Home teams are 11-8 SU and 10-9 ATS in the semifinals and with both of last night’s games going over, made it 10 overs and nine unders in the second round. “Zig-Zaggers” won with both the Raptors and Blazers, moving to 9-6 ATS in the second round. Checking in on the postseason numbers to-date, it’s 41-22 SU (.651) for home teams and 35-28 ATS (55.6%). There have been 40 unders in the 63 games (that’s 63.5%) and those following the Zig Zag theory are 26-25 (minus-1.5 net games). ESPN carries tonight’s Game 6 from OKC at 8:35 ET, as the Thunder look to eliminate the Spurs.
Durant (26.8-6.2-4.4) and Westbrook (24.6-7.2-10.2) are having excellent series for the Thunder but OKC’s two-headed center combo of Adams (10.2 & 12.0) and Kanter (9.0 & 7.6) may be the difference in the series so far. Duncan’s (3.4 & 3.6 in the series) a shell of his former self and Aldridge has been held to 36.7% shooting the last three games. Also, neither West (5.6-3.2) nor Diaw (4.4-2.2) are big enough to compete inside with Adams and Kanter, or for that matter, Ibaka (11.6-3.4 this series). A San Antonio loss in Game 6 might mean Duncan and Ginobili have played their last games. Spurs are favored though, by 1 1/2 points.