Perfect Cavs see 2-to-1 title odds
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com
“Fo-fo-fo-fo” isn’t a giant’s cry. Well, actually that’s not true at all. It’s quite literally what it is, but didn’t come from anyone green or fictional.
“Fo-fo-fo” was how Moses Malone boastfully proclaimed his 76ers would get through the 1983 postseason. He was off by a game, as Philadelphia ended up going 12-1, dropping a game against Milwaukee in the Eastern Conference finals prior to sweeping the Lakers for the title. Winning 92 percent of their games trumps the 1988-89 Pistons for top winning percentage in NBA playoff history, a number that can only be bested by going perfect of suffering a single loss since 16 wins are now required to win a championship.
Although the NBA’s revamped playoff system has added another “fo” to the mix, Malone’s the sentiment remains the same. Sweep every series. Brooms to rings. The Cleveland Cavaliers are halfway there.
There were times when things looked dicey against Detroit, but for the most part, the Cavs dominated the No. 8 seed. They made plays down the stretch to beat Stan Van Gundy. They covered only two of the four games, but still got out of Auburn Hills with a 100-98 Game 4 win that ensured a lesser work load. Then they got to work on Atlanta, a team that had reached the conference finals against them last season, and produced the most surprising result of this year’s postseason.
Portland landing in the Western Conference semis and playing competitive ball against the defending champs was definitely unexpected, but it has benefited from the Clippers losing Chris Paul and Blake Griffin and the Warriors toiling without Stephen Curry. What the Cavs did to the Hawks, a well-coached team loaded with veterans, was more of a shocker. How they did it, setting a four-game record for 3-pointers made in a series, was the real eye-opener.
After looking like the team we’ve seen all season against the Pistons, winning by a combined margin of 103.5-94.8, the Cavs averaged 112 points in the four-game sweep of Atlanta, twice eclipsing 120 points. Cleveland put up 152 3-pointers, connecting on 77 (50.7 pct) in shattering the previous high for makes from beyond the arc in a four-game series (57), falling just short of tying the 79 makes that the Hawks managed in a 2014 first-round series against the Pacers. If the Hawks had managed to extend Game 4 to OT, the Cavs might have shattered a record that took seven games to set in a span of four. Cleveland made 15 or more 3-pointers in every contest, becoming the first team in NBA history to knock down that many in four consecutive games, encompassing both playoffs or regular season. They memorably sunk 25 3-pointers in Game 2, shattering Golden State’s single-game record.
Honestly, it looked like a fluke, except for how the meaning of that word belies the consistency Cleveland displayed. They shot the ball with impunity. The ball was moved around the perimeter quickly and decisively, usually resulting in an open look for a capable shooter who was successful over half the time.
If not a fluke, a hot stretch? Sizzling, even. Well, maybe, which is why it’s going to be so interesting to see who gets out of the other Eastern Conference semifinal and how much more time the Cavs will get to work on themselves in the lab without pressure. Toronto lost center Jonas Valanciunas for the rest of the postseason due to an ankle issue. Miami is listing Hassan Whiteside as day-to-day with an MCL injury, but he likely won’t be 100 percent the rest of the way and may not make it back at all.
The top candidates on each roster to defend LeBron each got hurt in Game 5. Raptors small forward DeMarre Carroll was sidelined by a left wrist contusion and got good news on his MRI but remains day-to-day. Heat forward Luol Deng was still awaiting word on his wrist after initial results proved inconclusive after he hurt himself trying to brace his fall following a collision with a camera man. Toronto All-Star DeMar DeRozan isn’t 100 percent either, dealing with a nagging thumb injury.
Regardless of who ultimately comes out of the series to reach the Eastern Conference finals, Cleveland will be heavily favored. Still, there’s a legitimate argument to be made that Miami would be a far more challenging opponent.
The Heat rank in the Top 10 in 3-point percentage defense, while the Raptors ranked next-to-last, surrendering 37.4 percent shooting from beyond the arc. Considering the fan base in Miami would bring something extra to the table against LeBron James and the Heat’s battle-tested veterans are best-equipped to play mind games with the younger Cavaliers, there is little doubt that the Eastern Conference favorite would prefer a trip north of the border as opposed to heading south, since that would likely improve their chances of getting through the third leg of “fo-fo-fo-fo” unscathed.
As things stood on Thursday, Cleveland was at -800 (1-to-8) at Sportsbook.ag to win the Eastern Conference, a number that has held all week. After going up 3-2, the Raptors went from +750 (7.5-to-1) to +650 (6.5-to-1) and the Heat went from +1500 (15-to-1) to +2500 (25-to-1). Cleveland has hung second in the pecking order of NBA favorites, coming in at +200 (2-to-1), just behind Golden State, who is now at -170 (1-to-1.7) after opening the week -125 (1-to-1.25). San Antonio and OKC were both at +1000 (10-to-1) entering their Game 6 showdown.
If you want a horse in the race, it’s certainly worth backing a rested Cavs squad to take down the survivor of the Western Conference wars since Cleveland seems like a lock to get there, but the verdict remains out as to whether they can continue playing this way when the caliber of competition increases.
The Cavs’ championship hopes would probably be best-served if they were tested in the Eastern Conference finals and “fo-fo-fo-fo” was an impossibility, but it remains to be seen how large a part confidence plays in their continued transformation. This trigger-happy Cleveland squad is letting it fly with reckless abandon, asking questions later. The Cavaliers could wind up a victim of the “live by the three, die by the three” cliché, but seem to be following in the footsteps of the team that beat them last year, hoping the presence of Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love ultimately make the difference in a rematch.
We’ll see how they handle adversity since they haven’t faced any yet. Of course, getting by any setbacks at all is obviously the way to go, as the legendary Malone once suggested.
Playoff Journal
By Larry Ness
Covers.com
The Spurs looked fine in the opening quarter last night, taking a 16-10 lead. However, the Thunder ended the period on a 15-3 run and then blew the game wide open by taking the second quarter, 30-12. The score was 55-31 at the half (lowest first half scoring by the Spurs all season) and the final was never in doubt (OKC would win, 113-99). What a turnaround in this series from San Antonio’s 124-94 Game 1 rout. OKC won FOUR of the next five games, including the last three. Durant scored just 16 points in Game 1, then averaged 31.0 PPG on 51.4 percent shooting the last five. Westbrook averaged 27.4-7.4-10.8 the last five games plus the center combo of Adams (11.0-11.8.) and Kanter (8.7-7.5) were terrific all series.
For all of Pop’s planning, his resting starters periodically throughout the season in a effort to stay fresh come the postseason, the Spurs looked ‘spent’ the final three games of this series. Duncan seemingly aged 10 years from the end of the regular season to this matchup with OKC, as his 19 point effort in Game 6, was FOUR more points than he totaled in the first five games of the series, combined (15). Ginobili averaged 5.5 PPG the last four games on 31.6 percent shooting, while Parker was a non-factor the last two. He made 7 of 18 shots (38.9 percent) and got to the free throw line just TWO times. He scored a total of just 15 points while handing out eight assisst. This just may be the end of the road for both Duncan and Ginobili.
Home teams are now 12-8 SU and 11-9 ATS in the semifinals and with last night’s game going over, made it 11 overs and nine unders in the second round. “Zig-Zaggers” lost with the Spurs and are 9-7 ATS in the second round. Checking in on the postseason numbers to-date, it’s 42-22 SU (.656) for home teams and 36-28 ATS (56.3%). There have been 40 unders in the 64 games (that’s 62.5%) and those following the Zig Zag theory are 26-26 (minus-2.6 net games). ESPN carries tonight’s Game 6 from Miami at 8:05 ET, as the Raptors look to eliminate the Heat.
Both starting centers are again expected to miss and one wonders if DeRozan and Lowry can possibly duplicate their Game 5 performances? The Raptors are 1-4 all-time in road “close-out” games, while the Heat are 7-1 in their last eight elimination games, including 2-0 this postseason. However, the Heat have yet to score more than 94 points in any contest so far in this series, during regulation. Miami is favored by four points.
If there is a Game 7 in the Miami/Toronto series, I’ll have a journal on Sunday. If not, my next journal will be Monday.
Playoff Journal
By Larry Ness
Covers.com
Both Miami and Toronto needed a full seven games to advance out of this year’s opening round so it’s only fitting that the lone semifinal series to go the distance would be the one featuring the Heat and Raptors (3:35 ET from Toronto on ABC). Game 7 home teams are 99-24 (.805) in NBA playoff history but the Raptors are only 2-6 all-time with a chance to eliminate an opponent and just two years ago, lost a Game 7 at home vs the Brooklyn Nets. Today’s winner will become just the 15th team to win two Game 7s in the same postseason and if the winner is Miami, the Heat will become the first team to erase a 3-2 deficit and capture consecutive series.
The Heat have won FOUR straight Game 7s and a win here would allow them to join the Lakers and Celtics as the only franchises to win five straight Game 7s. The Heat are 7-1 in their last eight games when facing elimination but note that in the team’s Game 6 win (which allowed them to stave off elimination in this series), Wade was the ONLY player of the EIGHT to see minutes in that contest who played for the Heat in the 2014 NBA Finals. A win by Miami in this contest would allow Wade to advance to a Conference Final for the SEVENTH time in his 13-year career.
Home teams are 13-8 SU and 12-9 ATS in the second round, with 12 of the 21 games going over. Those following the Zig-Zag theory are 10-7 ATS. Checking in on the postseason numbers to-date, home teams are 43-22 SU (.662) and 37-28 ATS (56.9%). Forty of the 65 games have stayed under (61.5%) and those following the Zig-Zag theory are 27-26 or minus-1.6 net games. The Raptors are favored by 4 1/2 points.
Playoff Journal
By Larry Ness
Covers.com
Toronto’s history in “close out” games was not good but the Raptors rose to the challenge Sunday, with a 116-89 ‘spanking’ of the Heat (Game 7 home teams are now 100-24, .805 in NBA playoff history). All five starters scored in double digits, led by Lowry (35) and DeRozan (28), plus Biyombo did his best Valanciunas impersonation by adding 17 points and 16 rebounds. Lowry has struggled almost the entire postseason but in the last three games of this series, averaged 32.0 PPG while making 12 of 21 three-pointers (was shooting under 20 percent from three-point range prior to that). DeRozan averaged 28.3 PPG over the last three games as well, as the Raptors advanced to the franchise's first ever conference final (21st year). Just three current teams have never reached a conference final, the Charlotte Hornets, the LA Clippers and the New Orleans Pelicans. Toronto also becomes just the 15th team in NBA playoff history to have won two Games 7s in the same playoff season.
The Heat enters the fourth quarter down by eight points but got blown out in the the final period, as the Toronto outscored Miami, 30-11. The defeat ended a run of four consecutive Game 7 wins by Miami, as the Heat fell one Game 7 win shy of matching the Celtics and Lakers as the only teams to own five straight Game 7 wins. Home teams in the second round finished 14-8 SU (.636) and 13-9 ATS (59.1%), after home teams went 30-14 (.682) and 25-19 ATS (56.8%) in the opening round. Thirteen of the 22 games went over (59.1%), which was in stark contrast to just 13 of 44 games going over in the opening round (29.5%). Those following the Zig Zag theory were 11-7 (61.1%), after going 17-19 (47.2%) in the opening round.
Checking in on the postseason numbers to-date, home teams are 44-22 SU (.667) and 38-28 ATS (57.6%). Forty of the 66 games have stayed under (60.6%) and those following the Zig-Zag theory are 28-26 or minus-0.6 net games. The Western Conference Finals open tonight, as the Thunder are in Oakland to take on the Warriors at 9:05 ET on TNT. The Thunder are in the conference finals for the FOURTH time in six years but have advanced to the NBA Finals just once in three previous tries. OKC is led by Durant and Westbrook but the Thunder lead the NBA in rebounding margin at plus-8.4/game, more than double the next-best team. The two-headed center combo of Adams (11.8.) and Kanter (8.7) combined to average 20.5 RPG in besting the Spurs in six games. Yes, the Warriors won all three regular season meetings but OKC comes in with confidence, having won FOUR of five road games this postseason, including TWO wins in San Antonio.
Golden St center Bogut is questionable for Game 1 with a strained muscle in his right leg but quite obviously, the most important injury question of the series will be the status of Curry’s sprained right knee. He returned against Portland in Games 4 and 5, scoring 40 points (17 in the OT period, alone) and 29 points, respectively. He also averaged 7.0 RPG and 9.5 APG in those two wins, as the Warriors took the series, 4-1. Curry's “Splash Brother,” Klay Thompson, has guarded James Harden (Rockets) and Damian Lillard (Blazers) the last two series and now draws Russell Westbrook. So far so good, as Thompson has also averaged 27.5 PPG in the 2016 postseason and enters this contest having made at least five three-pointers in SEVEN consecutive games! Let’s also not forget Draymond Green, who is averaging 17.7-8.7-10.4 in the playoffs.
Golden St opened a 5-to-1 favorite to win the series and the current price is about 4-to-1. The Warriors check in as a 7 1/2–point favorite in Game 1.
Playoff Journal
By Larry Ness
Covers.com
Golden St took a 60-47 lead at the half in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals last night, when Curry hit an off-balance three-pointer at the buzzer. Considering that the Warriors were 37-0 this year when leading by double digits at the half, the second half figured to be a formality. Not so fast, as Lee Corso would say. OKC closed the gap to 70-66 midway through the third quarter but Golden St led 81-69, with 3 1/2 minutes left in the period. However, the Thunder ended the period on a 16-7 run to enter the fourth quarter down just 88-85. The Thunder took a 90-88 lead at the 10 1/2-minute mark and NEVER trailed after that. The Warriors were held to 14 points in the final period, as OKC won Game 1, 108-102.
Westbrook had 24 points in the second half, finishing with 27 points, six rebounds, 12 assists and seven steals. Durant had 26 & 10 plus the team’s two-headed center combo of Adams (16 & 12) and Kanter (8 & 6) was again, a major force. Throw in Ibaka’s double-double (11 & 11) and OKC won the rebounding ‘battle’ 52-44. Curry broke Reggie Miller’s record with a three-pointer in his 45th consecutive playoff game but that mattered little. The two-time MVP had 26 points, 10 rebounds (a career playoff high) and seven assists. Thompson had 25 points and has now scored 20-plus points in EIGHT straight postseason games but he also made just 3 of 10 FG attempts in the second half. Green had 23-5-4 but the Golden St reserves added a modest 16 points on 6 of 16 (37.5%) shooting.
The loss ended Golden St’s run of SEVEN consecutive Game 1 wins, while the win ended OKC’s stretch (going back to when the franchise was in Seattle) of 12 straight Game 1 losses on the road. The Thunder are now 5-1 on the road this postseason with the last three wins coming at San Antonio (twice) and Golden St (Spurs were 40-1 at home TY and the Warriors were 39-2). Home teams are now 44-23 (.657) and 38-29 ATS (56.7%), with 41 of the 67 games staying under (61.2%). The Eastern Conference Finals open tonight in Cleveland at 8:35 ET on ESPN.
The Cavs have swept both the Pistons and Hawks to reach the conference finals (have had a nine-day break!), while the Raptors have needed to win consecutive Game 7s to reach a conference final for the first time in franchise history (21st year). That’s in stark contrast to LBJ-led teams, as King James has led Miami (four times) and Cleveland (once) to FIVE straight NBA Finals’ appearances. LBJ has averaged 23.5-8.8-7.3 this postseason but is getting outstanding support from Irving (24.4 PPG on 47.7 percent shooting) and Love, who is averaging a double-double (18.9 & 12.5) while shooting 44.4 percent on threes. In fact, after shooting 36.2 percent on threes during the regular season, the Cavs are connecting on 46.2 percent beyond the arc in the playoffs.
Toronto’s DeRozan and Lowry have struggled throughout much of the postseason but both came up big in Game 5 and Game 7 wins against Miami. However, DeRozan is shooting 35.5 percent from the floor this postseason, including 18.2 percent on threes. Lowry is shooting 36.6 percent, including 28.3 percent on threes, after going 12 of 21 on threes in the last three games of the Miami series. The Raptors will be without center Jonas Valanciunas in Game 1 and maybe for the entire series. The 7-footer is still recovering from a sprained right ankle sustained in Game 3 against the Heat and his loss damages Toronto's depth and rebounding. Valanciunas was averaging 15.0 & 12.1 before getting hurt and will miss a FIFTH straight game, tonight. However, Biyumbo had contributed double-doubles in THREE of the four games Valanciunas has sat out, averaging 11.0 & 12.0.
Toronto did win TWO of the three regular season meetings but Miami is a strong 15-to-1 favorite to win the series, as well as an 11-point choice in Game 1.
Playoff Journal
By Larry Ness
Covers.com
The Eastern Conference Finals began last night in Cleveland and the underdog Raptors jumped out to a 7-0 lead, before LBJ scored the Cavs’ first points at 9:52 of the first period. However, the Cavs led 33-28 by the end of the first quarter and after a 33-16 second quarter (Toronto’s first FG didn’t come until 6:28 remaining in that period), the Cavs held a commanding 66-44 halftime. Cleveland cruised in the second half and won 115-84, with the 31-point margin of victory being the largest in Cleveland playoff history.
LBJ had 24-6-4 (made 11 of 13 FG attempts) and the Cavs’ leading playoff scorer Kyrie Irving (24.7 PPG) once again led the way with 27 points (11-of-17 FGs). Love came in averaging 18.9 & 12.5 but had a modest 14 & 4. EIGHT players got minutes off the bench with six scoring a total of 39 points. The Cavs shot 55.4 percent as a team, although a more modest 35.0 percent (7 of 20) on threes, after entering the game having connected on 46.2 percent of threes in their first two series. Toronto shot 42.1 percent from the floor, including just 5 of 24 on threes, as Lowry’s shooting woes re-surfaced. He was 4 of 14 overall, including 0 of 7 on threes. DeRozan had a quiet 18 points as incredibly, Toronto's All Star backcourt duo did not attempt a SINGLE free throw between them, despite DeRozan playing 35 minutes and Lowry 32. In fact, Toronto starters combined to attempt just five FTs!
Home teams are now 45-23 (.662) and 39-29 ATS (57.4%). Last night’s game snuck over the closing total but it’s still 41 of 68 unders (60.3%) so far this postseason. Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals will tip tonight at 9:00 ET on TNT. The Warriors let a 13-point halftime lead get away in Game 1, scoring just 42 points in the second half, including only 14 in the fourth quarter. Both point totals represent season lows for the team. OKC led the NBA in rebounding margin during the regular season at plus-8.4 per game and have increased that to plus-9.5 RPG in the postseason. In Game 1, OKC outrebounded Golden St 52-44.
Those following the Zig Zag theory were 11-7 (61.1%) in the second round, after going 17-19 (47.2%) in the opening round. They are 28-26 or minus-0.6 net games in the 2016 postseason to-date and will be on the Warriors tonight, who are favored by 8 1/2 points.
Playoff Journal
By Larry Ness
Covers.com
The Warriors found themselves in a rare position heading into Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals. Golden St lost Game 1 at home, just the team's THIRD home loss this year (39-2 in the regular season and 6-1 in the postseason). It marked the first time in the playoffs that the Warriors trailed in a series but they also knew that they had not lost consecutive games all season. Golden St took a 27-20 lead at the end of the first quarter and led 57-49 at the half. However, the Warriors were well aware that they had blown a 13-point halftime lead in Game 1, scoring a a season low 42 points in the second half of that game, including only 14 points in the fourth quarter. Steph Curry made sure that was NOT going to happen again, as he scored 15 points in just under a two-minute stretch of the third quarter, which propelled the Warriors to 118-91 win.
Curry would finish with 28 points and was buoyed by a very balanced scoring effort from his teammates. Klay Thompson had 15 (ending a streak of eight straight 20-plus efforts), Barnes 11 & 16 and Green 10-8-7. The Golden St bench added 50 points (had a modest 16 points in Game 1), led by Iquodala (15), Speights (13) and Ezeli (12), who reached double digits for the first time this postseason. The Warriors shot 50.6 percent as a team, including 13 of 28 on threes. Durant had 29 points for OKC (but just SIX in the second half), while Westbrook had 16 and 12 assists (he shot just 5 of 14, including 1 of 5 on threes). Adams (9 & 10) and Kanter (6 & 2) were held in check, after combining for 24 points and 18 rebounds in Game 1. That led to Golden St winning the rebounding ‘battle,’ 45-36.
The Warriors are now a perfect 12-0 SU and 9-3 ATS following a loss this year. Will the team’s ‘magic’ season end with a second straight title? Game 3 is not until Sunday, back in OKC. Home teams are now 2-1 SU and ATS in the conference finals, with two of the three staying under (Game 1 of the Tor/Mia series barely snuck over the closing number). Those following the Zig Zag theory began the conference finals 1-0 (after going 11-7 ATS in the second round) and will be on Toronto in tonight’s Game 2 at Miami (8:35 ET on ESPN). Checking in on the postseason numbers to-date, home teams are 46-23 SU (.667) and 40-29 ATS (58.0%). Forty-two of the 69 games have stayed under (60.9%) and those following the Zig-Zag theory are 29-26 or plus-0.4 net games.
The Cavs take the court a PERFECT 9-0 SU this postseason (6-3 ATS), coming off a 31-point win in Game 1 (largest margin of victory in Cleveland’s playoff history). The Cavs averaged 19.3 made three-pointers per game in their four-game sweep of the Hawks but made just seven three-pointers (in 20 attempts) in Game 1 vs the Raptors. Not to worry though, as the Cavs dominated inside, outscoring the Raptors 56-to-36 on points in the paint, while outrebounding them 45-23. Lowry was AWFUL and DeRozan not much of a factor but of even more concern to the Raptors has to be the fact that the All Star guard duo never even attempted a SINGLE free throw between them in Game 1 (talk about NOT being aggressive!). The Cavs are favored by 12 points.
Playoff Journal
By Larry Ness
Covers.com
The Raptors hung with the Cavs for most of the first half of Thursday night’s game, coming off a 31-point blowout loss in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals. Despite another poor shooting outing from Kyle Lowry, Patterson’s three-pointer with just about four minutes left in the second quarter, got Toronto even with Cleveland at 46-all. However, the Raptors went 0 for 9 from the floor the rest of the quarter and a 16-2 run by the Cavs put Cleveland up 62-48 at the half. The Cavs went on ‘cruise control’ in the second half, on the way to a 108-89 win, the team’s 10th in a row to open the 2016 playoffs. That ties the 2012 Spurs for the best start in a single playoff season and leaves them one win away from matching the Lakers’ record 11 straight wins, accomplished in both 1989 and 2001. The victory also marked Cleveland’s 17th straight win against Eastern Conference opponents, breaking the record of 16 straight wins over Western Conference opponents, held by the Lakers (from 2000 through 2002).
LBJ recorded his 15th career playoff triple-double (23-11-11) and the Cavs leading scorer this postseason, Kyrie Irving (24.9 PPG), again led in scoring with 26 points. Love had 15 & 9 (is averaging 18.4 & 10.9 this postseason), as the Cavs shot 50.0 percent from the floor (shot 50.6 percent in Game 1). Getting back to LBJ, he also passed Shaq in career postseason scoring and now trails only Kobe, Kareem and MJ. Lowry was 4 of 14 from the floor, including 1 of 8 on threes, scoring just 10 points. He’s now 1 of 15 from three-point range after two games, with more TOs (9) than assists (8.). DeRozan had a ‘quiet’ 18 points with the other three starters combining for only 16 points. Can the Raptors turn this around in Toronto? We will find out tonight at 8:35 ET on ESPN in Game 3.
Checking in on the postseason numbers to-date, home teams are 47-23 SU (.671) and 41-29 ATS (58.6%). Forty-three of the 70 games have stayed under (61.4%) and those following the Zig-Zag theory are 29-27 or minus-0.7 net games. Kyle Lowry says he isn't lacking confidence as the Eastern Conference finals shift to Toronto. "I think we'll be better at home," Lowry said practice Friday. "We're supposed to be better at home. We're down 2-0 but we haven't played on our home floor yet." Toronto is 6-2 at home in the playoffs after going 32-9 at Air Canada Centre in the regular season."We've got to go out tomorrow night and hold down our fort," said DeMar DeRozan, Toronto’s other All Star guard. What should we make of Lowry? He scored 96 points over the final three games against Miami but also has had SEVEN games this postseason with 10 or more attempts where his shooting percentage was below 30 percent. The only player to do that more often in a single playoff season is Hedo Turkoglu with eight for Orlando in 2009.
Toronto's Game 2 loss marked the first time since March 23 and 25 that the Raptors had lost back-to-back games. The team hasn't lost three straight since November 15-18, which is its longest losing streak of the 2015-16 season. The Cavs are 10-0 SU and 7-3 ATS this postseason but it’s hard to gage whether the Cavs are a juggernaut or just ‘sailing’ past a VERY weak group of Eastern Conference foes. Stay tuned. Cleveland is favored by 5 1/2 points in tonight’s Game 3.
NBA home underdogs have big betting bite in the conference finals
By Jason Logan
Covers.com
This weekend’s two NBA conference finals games – Saturday and Sunday - will be just the 32nd and 33rd time a team has been listed as a home underdog in a conference championship series since the 1991-92 season.
The Toronto Raptors, down 0-2 to the Cleveland Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference finals, are 5-point home pups hosting LeBron James and the Cavs Saturday while the Oklahoma City Thunder are getting 2.5 points from oddsmakers against the visiting Golden State Warriors in Game 3 of the West finals, with that series knotted at one game apiece.
Looking back over those previous 31 instances in which the home side was the betting underdog in that 24-year span, those host clubs posted an 18-12-1 ATS record (17-14 SU), covering the spread 60 percent of the time.
Crunching those conference finals spreads down to fit this weekend’s lines, and home underdogs of +2.5 and higher are 10-5-0 ATS, a bankroll building 67 percent winner against the NBA pointspreads since 1991-92. Those particular home pups finished 9-6 SU in those contests.
Those 15 NBA conference final home dogs of +2.5 or more scored an average of 93.8 points against an average of 92.3 from the road favorite, facing an average spread of +4.5 points. Toronto falls into even rarer company at +5, as one of just six teams to get five or more points from the books on their home court in the conference finals in the past 24 years. Those previous five qualifying teams posted a 3-2 ATS mark while going 2-3 SU.
The biggest home dog in that stretch were the 1997-98 Los Angeles Lakers +8 versus the Utah Jazz, who won 109-98 in Game 3 of the Western Conference finals. Utah would go on to sweep L.A. in four straight games.
Toronto hadn't been a home underdog in the playoffs before Game 3 and went a solid 5-1 ATS getting the points inside the Air Canada Centre during the regular season. Cleveland, on the other hand, has been a betting favorite in all 10 of its postseason games this year, with a 2-2 ATS record as road chalk. The Cavaliers were just 14-21-2 ATS as road favorites during the regular season.
In the Western side of the bracket, Oklahoma City has been a home pup only once in these playoff – losing 100-95 as a +2.5 underdog vs. San Antonio in Game 3 of the Western semifinals. The Thunder finished 0-1-1 ATS as home dogs in the regular season. Golden State is 2-2 ATS as a road fave this postseason and was 22-17-2 ATS as a road favorite during the regular season.
Overall, regardless of round, home underdogs are 174-163-8 ATS (51.6%) in the NBA Playoffs since 1991-92, with Eastern home dogs going 85-94-5 (47%) and West home pups putting up an 89-69-3 ATS count (56%). Those games have a 153-189-3 Over/Under record (55% Under).
Playoff Journal
By Larry Ness
Covers.com
Toronto reminded all Saturday night what Dorothy told us way back in 1939 and that is, “There’s No Place Like Home!” The Raptors were outplayed and outclassed in losing the first two games of the Eastern Conference Finals in Cleveland, getting beat by 31 and 19 points, while the Cavs averaged 111.5 PPG in shooting 50.6 percent in Game 1 and 50 percent in Game 2. However, a return to ‘Kansas’ or in this case, Toronto’s Air Canada Centre, was seemingly all the Raptors needed for a complete makeover. Toronto’s defense was superb, holding the Cavs to 38.5 percent shooting and only 84 points (note: this marked the first time this postseason that Cleveland has NOT reached 100 points!). Meanwhile, DeRozan, after averaging a very ‘quiet’ 20.0 PPG in the first two games, scored a team high 32 points (31 in the first three quarters). Backcourt mate Lowry, just 8 of 28 (including 1 of 15 on threes) in the first two games, added 20 points on 7 of 13 shooting (4 of 8 on threes). Then there was Biyombo, who set a Toronto single-game playoff record with 26 rebounds plus scored SIX of his seven points on three consecutive baskets in the fourth quarter when the Cavs had cut the lead to eight points.
The 99-84 final ended Cleveland’s run of 10 straight wins to open the 2016 postseason (fell one game shy of the Lakers’ all-time record of 11 straight wins to open both the ‘89 and ‘01 postseasons), as Tyronn Lue lost for the first time as a head coach in the playoffs (he broke Pat Riley’s record of beginning his postseason coaching career with nine straight wins, back in 1982). LBJ had 24-8-5, although like DeRozan in Games 1 and 2, his contributions seemed quiet. The ‘killer’ for Cleveland was the play of Irving and Love. Irving entered the game leading the Cavs in playoff scoring at 24.8 PPG, while shooting 50.0 percent from the floor, while Love was averaging 18.4 & 10.9 plus was connecting on 44.9 percent of his threes. However, both were just plain AWFUL, as Irving made just 3 of 19 shots (1 of 7 on threes), while Love had three points (1 of 9 shooting, including 1 of 4 on threes) and only four rebounds. Game 4 (on Monday) will tell us if the Raptors are really back in the series or if Saturday’s effort was the exception, not the rule.
Home teams are now 4-1 SU and ATS in these conference finals with FOUR of the five games staying under (“Zig-Zaggers” are 2-1 ATS). Checking in on the postseason numbers to-date, home teams are 48-23 SU (.676) and 42-29 ATS (59.2%). Forty-four of the 71 games have stayed under (62.0%) and those following the Zig-Zag theory are 30-27 or plus-0.3 net games. Game 3 of the Western Conference finals is tonight in OKC (8:00 ET on TNT), with the Warriors and Thunder tied at one game-all. Typically it’s the “Splash Brothers” who lead the way for Golden St but in this series against the Thunder, the NBA’s best rebounding team during the regular season and now again in the postseason, it may be Golden St’s frontcourt starters and reserves who will determine the outcome. The Warriors are favored by three points.
Playoff Journal
By Larry Ness
Covers.com
There was a shocker last night in OKC, as the Thunder didn’t just take a 2-1 series lead over the Warriors but rather, Oklahoma City dismantled Golden St in a 133-105 win. The 133 points are most in playoff history for the franchise and represent the highest point total for any team in the 2016 postseason. OKC jumped on Golden St early but the Warriors climbed to within 34-28 by the end of the first quarter. The Warriors actually tied the game at 40-all, despite playing with mostly reserves on the floor but the Thunder then outscored the Warriors 32-7 in the last eight minutes of the second quarter (Golden St was a incomprehensible 2 of 21 from the floor in that stretch), to take a 72-47 halftime lead. The Thunder then made 17 of 22 shots from the floor and scored 45 points in the third quarter, entering the final period with a 117-80 advantage!
Durant had 33 points, making 10 of 15 FGs and 12 of 12 FTs. Westbrook had 30 points (10 of 19 shooting) with eight rebounds and 12 assists. After getting outrebounded in Game 2, the Thunder controlled the boards, winning the rebounding ‘battle’ 52-38, while also blocking eight Golden St shots (Warriors has just ONE block!). Curry had 24 points on 7 of 17 shooting (3 of 11 on threes) and Thompson had 18 points on 8 of 19 shooting (2 of 8 on threes). Golden St’s other three starters combined for a meager 15 points with Green getting 6-4-3, while his plus-minus rating of minus-43 represents the worst in a playoff game since 1997 (note: Thompson was minus-41 and Curry minus-39). Are the 73-win Warriors in real trouble?
Home teams have dominated play in the conference finals, going 5-1 SU and ATS with FOUR of the six games going under (“Zig-Zaggers” are 3-1 this round). Checking in on the postseason numbers to-date, home teams are 49-23 SU (.681) and 43-29 ATS (59.7%). Forty-four of the 72 games have stayed under (61.1%) and those following the Zig-Zag theory are 31-27 or plus-1.3 net games. Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals goes tonight at 8:35 ET on ESPN, as the Cavs and Raptors meet in Toronto. Was Game 3 a fluke or do we now have a series? It’s hard to believe Irving (3 of 19) and Love (1 of 9) can possibly shoot as poorly as they did in Game 3 plus all postseason, Lowry and DeRozan have been “X-factors.” Who knows what to expect from them? We do know this; the Cavs have gotten to the FT line 86 times in three games, while the Raptors have attempted just 51 FTs. Cleveland is favored by six points.
Playoff Journal
By Larry Ness
Covers.com
Very few All Star-caliber players have had the ‘mood’ swings experienced by Toronto’s Kyle Lowry during a single series. The Raptors were non-competitive in losing Game 1 (by 31 points) and Game 2 (by 19 points) in Cleveland and while there was plenty of blame to go around, there was no bigger ‘goat’ than Lowry. He was 4 of 14 from the floor in each of the first two games of the Eastern Conference Finals, including going a combined 1 of 15 from three-point range. He had more TOs (9) than assists (8.), as well. However, he got things turned around with a solid 20-point Game 3 effort on 7 of 13 shooting (4 of 8 on threes) in support of DeRoizan’s 32 points and Biyombo’s 26 rebounds in Toronto’s 99-84 victory. Yes, DeRozan had another 32-point effort in Game 4 but it was Lowry’s ‘show,’ as he scored 35 points on 14 of 20 shooting, including 4 of 7 on threes.
The Raptors shot 53.8 percent as a team, after shooting 45.8% in their Game 3 win and a combined 41.1% in the two losses at Cleveland (averaged only 86.5 PPG). However, as is almost always the case, the Raptors rarely make things easy on themselves. The Cavs were horrific from behind the arc in the first half (3 of 23) and Toronto led 57-41 at the break (Lowry scored 15 of Toronto’s 30 points in the second quarter). However, the Cavs made a game of it the third quarter and then opened the fourth quarter by making 11 consecutive shots! The Cavs took an 88-87 lead with 7:03 left and still led 96-94 at the 4:52 mark. However, Cleveland would make just ONE of its final 10 shots the rest of the way (an Irving three-pointer with 2:20 remaining), as the Raptors outscored them 11-4 for a 105-99 win.
LBJ had 29-9-6 but one didn’t get the sense he was dominating anyone. Irving contributed 26 points but was 3 of 8 on threes. J.R. Smith was 3 of 11 on threes and Kevin Love just 2 of 7 (held to 10 points and seven rebounds). The Cavs hoisted 41 three-pointers for the second straight game, making just 13 (made only 14 in Game 3). This after shooting ‘lights out’ vs the Hawks from behind the arc in the semis. Have the Cavs now been exposed? Can the Raptors, who went 32-9 at home in the regular season and are now 8-2 at Air Canada Centre in the playoffs, win in Cleveland? The Raptors are 0-3 this season in Cleveland (losing by a combined 72 points) and are 2-6 on the road in the playoffs. The Cavs are 6-0 SU at Quicken Loans Arena this postseason. We find out Wednesday.
Home teams continue to dominate play in the conference finals, going 6-1 SU and ATS with FOUR of the seven games going under (“Zig-Zaggers” are 3-2 this round). Checking in on the postseason numbers to-date, home teams are 50-23 SU (.685) and 44-29 ATS (60.3%). Forty-four of the 73 games have stayed under (60.3%) and those following the Zig-Zag theory are 31-28 or plus-0.2 net games. Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals goes tonight at 9:00 ET on TNT, as the Warriors and Thunder meet in OKC. Golden State corrected all the mistakes that plagued the team in the second half of a Game 1 loss, when the Warriors let a 13-point halftime lead skip away by scoring just 42 points, including just 14 in the fourth quarter. Golden St was the more aggressive team in Game 2 and walked away with a 118-91 victory.
However, those second half Game 1 mistakes came back in a big way in Game 3, as the Thunder seemingly turned every rebound and every errant pass into an opportunity to get out in transition. Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook combined for 63 points, 16 rebounds and 14 assists, as the Thunder scored a franchise playoff record 133 points, the most points scored by any team in the 2016 postseason, to date. Game 3 was tied at 40-all with just under nine minutes left in the first half on Sunday night when the Thunder outscored the Warriors 32-7 over the rest of the half, with Golden St going an ABYSMAL 2-of-23 from the floor over that span. The Warriors are now down in this series for a second time (2-1, like 1-0 after Game 1) but it should be noted that TWICE during the team’s run to the 2015 title, the Warriors fell behind 2-1 in a series before ultimately winning.
However, the Warriors were never as thoroughly crushed as they were on Sunday. “We got our butts kicked,” Golden State coach Steve Kerr told reporters. “It doesn’t matter if (the loss was by) one point or 30. You’ve got to look at the tape and you’ve got to figure out how you can be better and then you come back with a better effort. But they were the more desperate team (Sunday), they were beating us to loose balls, to rebounds, and our quick shots just fed their transition.” Warriors All-Star Draymond Green was held to six points on 1-of-9 shooting in the loss but the Warriors ‘dodged a bullet’ with the NBA ruling that Green would NOT be suspended for Game 4 for his flagrant foul for kicking Oklahoma center Steven Adams in the groin in the second quarter. As Jeff Van Gundy said so well last night, “Does anyone seriously think that if Curry had been the ‘victim’ of a similar act by Adams, that Adams would NOT have been suspended?”
Now here’s the rub. The Warriors’ Game 3 loss marks just their 13th loss this year, nine in the regular season and now four in the playoffs. Golden St has NEVER lost back-to-back games all year, sitting a PERFECT 12-0 SU and 9-3 ATS following a loss year-to-date. Will that trend hold or will the Warriors return to Oakland down 3-1 with their championship hopes on ‘life support?’ Golden St is favored by 1 1/2 points.
Playoff Journal
By Larry Ness
Covers.com
W-O-W!!! Golden State’s 73-win regular season seems ‘light years’ away at the moment and its hopes for a second straight NBA title are officially on ‘life support’ after the Warriors were outplayed in every possible aspect for a second straight game in OKC by the Thunder last night. All five OKC starters scored in double digits in the 118-94 win, led by Westbrook’s first triple-double of the playoffs (36-11-11), Durant’s 26 & 11 and Roberson’s career-high 17 points, along with 12 rebounds. OKC is the NBA’s best rebounding team and the Thunder dominated again in Game 4, winning the rebounding ‘battle’ 56-40 and seemingly coming up with EVERY loose ball. OKC also outscored Golden St from the FT line, 31-19 (40 attempts to 29).
Green did not get suspended for Golden St but one would hardly have known he was on the court for 38 minutes last night, as he followed a six-point (1 of 9 shooting) effort in Game 3 by scoring just six points again, on 1 of 7 shooting, while committing SIX turnovers. His Game 3 plus/minus was minus-43 and his Game 4 number wasn’t all that much better (minus-30). Curry has been exposed as a major defensive liability and looked uninspired offensively, soring 19 points on 6 of 20 shooting (2 of 10 on threes), while matching Green with six turnovers. Thompson was in fouled trouble in the first half (only scored four points) and while he did score 19 points in a seven-minute stretch of the third quarter, his 26 points were hollow. The Warriors shot 48.7 percent from the floor (41.4 percent on threes) while averaging 114.9 PPG during the regular season but in Game 4 shot 41.3 percent, including 30.0 percent on threes ( 9 of 30), while scoring 94 points.
"We all have to bounce back," Warriors coach Steve Kerr said. "The good news is, we go home. Obviously we play well at home. The idea now is to go home and get one win. Do that, and we put some pressure on them and we'll see what happens." Curry added this after the Thunder rolled to a 118-94 rout at Chesapeake Energy Arena, "The series isn't over. We've got to believe in ourselves. There's obviously frustration. It's a terrible feeling once again not stepping up and being ourselves and playing our game. But I think we're a special team. This isn't how we're going to go out!” Early number has the Warriors favored by 7 1/2 points in Game 5.
Home teams continue to dominate play in the conference finals, going 7-1 SU and ATS (seven straights wins and covers by the home team since OKC won Game 1 in Oakland vs Golden St). FIVE of the eight games have stayed under and “Zig-Zaggers” are 3-3 this round. Checking in on the postseason numbers to-date, home teams are 51-23 SU (.689) and 45-29 ATS (60.8%). Forty-five of the 74 games have stayed under (60.8%) and those following the Zig-Zag theory are 31-29 or minus-0.9 net games. Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals goes tonight at 8:35 ET on ESPN, as the Raptors and Cavs meet in Cleveland.
The series is tied at two-all and as noted here often, history says the winner in Game 5 of a best-of-seven series that is tied two-all is highly likely to go on and win that series. This marks the seventh playoff series this postseason to reach a Game 5 tied at two-all. FIVE of the six previous Game 5 winners have gone on to take that series (the Heat overcoming a 3-2 deficit against the Hornets in the opening round being the lone exception). A quick check of the NBA’s playoff history book reveals that Game 5 winners of a best-of-seven series (when tied two-all) are now 152-34 or 81.7 percent all-time!
DeRozan and Lowry combined for 52 points in Game 3 and then 67 points in Game 4 (highest point total for Toronto’s guard duo in ANY game this season), as the Raptors evened the series at two-all. It’s also being reported that Jonas Valanciunas has recovered enough from his sprained right ankle (sustained in Game 3 against the Heat) to get back on the court for this one. Then again, what to do with Biyombo, who just provided 40 rebounds and seven blocks in the Raptors’ two wins? It’s now back to Cleveland where the Raptors lost Games 1 and 2 by a combined 50 points plus lost their only regular season meeting in Cleveland by 22 points. The Raptors are 2-6 SU and ATS on the playoff road this postseason, getting outscored on average, 103.5-to-86.2 PPG in those six losses. The Cavs have yet to lose at home this postseason, going 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS, outscoring opponents on average, 110.5-to-92.5 PPG.
Those numbers sure favor the Cavs but won’t Irving (just 4 of 15 on threes in Games 3 & 4) and Love (5 of 23 from the floor while averaging just 6.5 PPG in Toronto) both have to play MUCH better? LBJ has scored 20 points or more in all 12 of Cleveland's postseason games this year (24.0-8.7-7.0) and just maybe he’ll have to put this team on his ‘back!’ The Cavs are favored by 10 1/2 points.
Playoff Journal
By Larry Ness
Covers.com
A return to Cleveland was all the Cavs needed to ‘right the ship.’ Wednesday’s Game 5 was a ‘laugher,’ as the Cavs opened a 65-34 halftime lead and rolled to a 116-78 win. Cleveland’s “Big 3” was just that, as Love rebounded from two awful performances in Toronto to lead the way with 25 points on EIGHT of 10 shooting plus Irving added 23. Despite not playing at all in the 4th quarter, LBJ topped 20 points for the 13th time in 13 games this postseason, finishing with 23-6-8. The Cavs shot 57.1 percent as a team, including 10 of 21 from three-point range. That’s after taking 41 three-point attempts in each of the two games in Toronto, connecting on only 32.9 percent.
The Raptors were non-competitive from the outset and ended the game shooting 39.1 percent, including a woeful 3 of 17 on threes. DeRozan scored 32 points in each of the two games in Toronto but made just 2 of 8 shots last night, while scoring 14 points. Lowry’s shooting woes returned, as the PG was 5 of 12 (1 of 4 on threes), for just 13 points. Adding insult to injury, the Raptors also made only 21 of 35 FT attempts. About the only bright spot was the return to the court of Jonas Valanciunas, who scored nine points in 18 minutes. The Raptors fell to 2-7 on the road during the playoffs and have now lost all four games played in Cleveland this season, by a combined 110 points. The Cavs are 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS at home this postseason, winning by an average margin of 20.9 PPG
I noted in yesterday’s journal that teams winning Game 5 of a best of seven series tied at two-all have gone on to win 152 of 176 series (or 81.7 percent all-time)! As for LBJ, last night’s contest was his 13th Game 5 in a series tied at two-all and the win makes him a modest 7-6 in those contests. James also played in his 191st playoff game, moving ahead of Magic for 12th on the all-time list. Home teams continue to just dominate play in the conference finals, going 8-1 SU and ATS (eight straights wins and covers by the home team since OKC won Game 1 in Oakland vs Golden St). SIX of the nine games have stayed under and “Zig-Zaggers” are 4-3 this round. Checking in on the postseason numbers to-date, home teams are 52-23 SU (.693) and 46-29 ATS (61.3%). Forty-six of the 75 games have stayed under (61.3%) and those following the Zig-Zag theory are 32-29 or plus-0.1 net games. Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals goes tonight at 9:00 ET on TNT, as the Thunder and Warriors meet in Oakland.
I detailed Golden St’s woes in this series in Wednesday’s journal and the Warriors now must win THREE straight games to keep their season alive. Only NINE teams in NBA playoff history have rallied from a 3-1 deficit to capture a series, the first being the 1968 Celtics (over the 76ers) and the most recent being the 2015 Rockets, who did so vs the Clippers. Durant (28.5 & 8.8.) leads the Thunder in scoring this series but few would argue against the statement that Westbrook has been the series MVP, so far. OKC’s point guard is averaging 27.3-6.5-11.8 and coming off his first triple-double of the playoffs. He had a league-high 18 in the regular season and no one will be surprised to learn that the Thunder are 19-0 when he records a triple-double.
However, it hasn’t just been Durant and Westbrook this series for OKC, as the team's other three starters (Adams, Ibaka and Roberson), have combined to average 32.8 PPG and 23.5 RPG in this series (those three averaged a more modest 25.4 PPG during bteh regular season). Also note that Waiters is averaging 10.0 PPG and Kanter 6.3 & 5.5. The bottom line is, the Thunder have been more aggressive and much better at executing on both ends of the floor. Is OKC just too athletic, too ‘long’ and too fast for the Warriors? Curry averaged 30.1 in the regular season on 50.4 percent shooting, including 45.4 percent on threes. However, he’s averaged 24.3 PPG this series, shooting 41.9 percent, including 37.2 percent on threes. Thompson shot 42.5 percent on threes during the regular season but has averaged just 31.4 percent this series. Last but hardly least, is the poor play of Green, who the last two games has made 2 of 16 shots, totaling 12 points. He had almost as many TOs (10) as points and his plu/minus is a HORRIFIC minus-73 in Games 3 and 4.
The Warriors are favored by 7 1/2 points in Game 5 and a Golden St win sends the series back to OKC, where the Thunder would have a chance to end Golden St’s record-setting season. Then again, maybe the Thunder won’t wait until Game 6?
Playoff Journal
By Larry Ness
Covers.com
It was “win or go home” for Golden St last night in Game 5 and the defending champs led for almost the entire game, as the contest was tied twice in the third quarter, with OKC’s only lead of the game coming at 68-67 with 6:05 remaining in that period. The Warriors took an 81-77 lead into the fourth quarter and opened a 13-point lead with 6 1/2 minutes left. Yes, the Thunder cut it to five with 4 1/2 minutes to go but the Warriors will ‘live’ until at least a Game 6 (Saturday in OKC), as they won 120-111. The “Splash Brothers” cane through, as Curry had 31 and Thompson 27. neither shot well from three-point land (combined 5 of 17) but the duo combined to make 19 of 20 FTs. Green was much better (11 points and 13 rebounds) plus Bogut scored a career playoff high 15 points, while adding 14 rebounds (7th playoff double-double of his career). Speights had his second-best best scoring game of the 2016 postseason, adding 14 points.
Durant (40 & 7) and Westbrook (31-8-5) combined for 71 points but neither shot well (combined 23 of 59), while Westbrook had seven TOs. The team’s other three starters didn’t match their play in Games 3 and 4 plus coming off the bench, Waiters did not score in 27 minutes while Kanter played only six minutes with one point and two rebounds. Golden St is the 233rd team in NBA history to fall behind 3-1 in a best-of-seven playoff series. As noted, only NINE of the previous 232 (that’s 3.9 percent!) have rebounded to win the series. The Warriors will try to force a Game 7 by winning Game 6 Saturday in OKC. However, here’s the rub. Home teams have dominated play in the conference finals, going 9-1 SU and ATS, with NINE straights wins and covers by the home team since OKC won Game 1 in Oakland vs Golden St!
Checking in on the postseason numbers to-date, home teams are 53-23 SU (.697) and 47-29 ATS (61.8%). Forty-six of the 76 games have stayed under (60.5%) and those following the Zig-Zag theory are 33-29 or plus-1.1 net games. Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals goes tonight at 8:35 ET on ESPN, as the Cavs and Raptors meet in Toronto. The home team has won all five games in this series so far, as well as winning all three regular season meetings between the two clubs. Cleveland’s three home wins this series have come by an average of 29.3 PPG and Toronto will look to ‘stay alive’ by beating the Cavs here in Air Canada Centre for the FIFTH consecutive time this year (2-0 in the regular season plus in Games 3 and 4 of this series).
DeRozan and Lowry combined for 67 points in Game 4 but in the Game 5 loss in Cleveland, contributed just 27 points. Lowry has been AWFUL in the three games at Cleveland, averaging 10.3 PPG while shooting 2 of 19 on threes (10.5%). That’s compared to him averaging 27.5 PPG (8 of 15 on threes) in Games 3 and 4 at Toronto. The Raptors were 32-9 SU at home in the regular season and have gone 8-2 SU in the postseason. Will the Cavs close things out here or will the Raptors send it back to Cleveland for a Game 7? The Cavs are favored by 6 1/2 points.