Playoff Journal
By Larry Ness
Covers.com
The Cavs opened the 2016 postseason with 10 consecutive wins (one shy of the all-time record of 11 straight wins to open a playoff year), sweeping the Pistons and Hawks, before easily winning Games 1 and 2 of the Eastern Conference Finals against the Raptors. However, the Raptors regrouped to win Games 3 and 4 in Toronto, getting excellent play from guards Lowry and DeRozan plus the added bonus of Biyombo turning into a rebounding ‘machine’ in those two contests. Meanwhile, the Cavs went ‘cold’ from three-point range with Irving and particular Love, throwing in very sub-par efforts. However, the Cavs said “enough is enough” and just ‘buried’ the Raptors in Games 5 and 6.
A quick check of the NBA’s playoff history book reveals that Game 5 winners of a best-of-seven series (when tied two-all) are now 153-34 or 81.8 percent all-time, as the Cavs followed their 116-78 win at home in Game 5 with last night’s resounding 113-87 win at Toronto in Game 6. Cleveland shot 54.1 percent overall, including 17 of 31 on threes. LBJ scored 33 points plus added 11 rebounds and six assists, while Irving 30 points (and a postseason high NINE assists), Love 20 & 12 and J.R. Smith (15 points on five three-pointers) did their fair share.
“King James” advances to his SIXTH straight NBA Finals, after shooting 62.2 percent for the series, the second-best shooting performance of his career (this marked his 36th playoff series). LBJ averaged 26.0-8.5-6.7 against Toronto and now leads the Cavs in playoff scoring at 24.6 PPG. Irving checks in at 24.3 PPG and Love at 17.3 & 9.6. Toronto’s most successful season ever is over, as the Raptors managed to make only 41.8 percent in Game 6 (just 8 of 25 threes) and truth be told, are just not in the Cavs’ class. Cleveland’s four wins in the series came by an average margin of 28.5 PPG!
Cleveland’s win in Toronto ended a run of NINE consecutive wins and covers by the home team in the conference finals. Home teams are 9-2 SU and ATS this round, with SIX of the 11 games staying under. Checking in on the postseason numbers to-date, home teams are 53-24 SU (.688) and 47-30 ATS (61.0%). Forty-six of the 77 games have stayed under (59.7%) and those following the Zig-Zag theory are 33-30, which is exactly dead-even in net games for the journey, so far.
Golden St is the 233rd team in NBA history to fall behind 3-1 in a best-of-seven playoff series and as previously noted, only NINE of the previous 232 (that’s 3.9 percent!) have rebounded to win the series. The Warriors were able to ‘stay alive’ with a 120-111 Game 5 win in Oakland but now must win Game 6 in OKC, where they’ve lost 133-105 and 118-94. Will the defending champs bow out here in Game 6, leaving the team’s record 73-win season no more than a foot note? The 'answer’ will be revealed beginning at 9:00 ET on TNT as the Thunder host the Warriors. OKC is favored by three points.
Playoff Journal
By Larry Ness
Covers.com
The Thunder had the Warriors on the ropes after dominating wins at OKC in Games 3 and 4. Few were surprised when the Warriors regrouped to win Game 5 in Oakland but as the Game 6 pointspread ‘move’ indicated (Warriors opened a 1 1/2-point choice but the Thunder closed as a 3 1/2-point favorite), many (most?) felt that Saturday night’s contest was going to end Golden State’s record-setting season. OKC entered the fourth quarter with an eight point lead but the team imploded over the game’s final five minutes, led by the Dynamic Duo of Durant and Westbrook. Golden St ended the game on a 19-5 run, including scoring the game’s final NINE points.
OKC committed SIX turnovers in the last five minutes (four by Westbrook and two by Durant), as the Thunder’s two superstars combined to make just 20 of 58 shots for the game (3 of 14 in the fourth quarter), including an awful 1 of 13 on threes. Add that to the duo’s Game 5 efforts and one gets 43 of 117 from the floor (36.8 percent), including 7 of 32 on threes (21.9 percent). While Durant and Westbrook were ‘gagging’ (how else could it be described?), the “Splash Brothers” lit it up in the fourth quarter. Thompson set a NBA playoff record with 11 three-pointers in the game, scoring 19 of his 41 points in the fourth quarter. Curry took longer to get going but ended one assist shy of a triple-double, scoring 31 points while adding 10 rebounds and nine assists.
After NINE consecutive wins and covers by the home team in the conference finals the Cavs won Game 6 in Toronto (clinching the series) and the Warriors won Game 6 in OKC to set up tonight’s Game 7. Home teams are now 9-3 SU and ATS this round, with SEVEN of the 12 games staying under (“Zig-Zaggers” are 5-5 in this round). Checking in on the postseason numbers to-date, home teams are 53-25 SU (.679) and 47-31 ATS (60.3%). Forty-seven of the 78 games have stayed under (60.3%) and those following the Zig-Zag theory are 33-31, which is minus-1.1 net games.
Setting the stage for tonight’s game let’s note that Golden St is the 233rd team in NBA history to fall behind 3-1 in a best-of-seven playoff series and only NINE of the previous 232 (that’s 3.9 percent!) have rebounded to win the series. However, the Warriors no longer need to win THREE in a row, they just need to win tonight. NBA playoff history tells us that Game 7 home teams are 100-24 (.805) and of the nine teams to come back from a 3-1 deficit, SEVEN won that Game 7 at home. As for the Thunder (Game 6 loser), there have been 36 teams to lose Game 6 at home with a 3-2 series lead. Just 12 of those 36 teams (33%) came back to win Game 7. The Warriors are favored by seven points with tip-off at 9:00 ET on TNT.
Playoff Journal
By Larry Ness
Covers.com
Bird and Magic entered the NBA for the start of the 1979-80 season, rejuvenating what was a 'dying' league. Here's what a check of the history books tell us. Of the 36 championship teams since that 1979-80 season, 18 have been teams which finished the regular season with the best regular season record (or tied for the best record). Nine champs have been teams which finished with its second-best mark and four others with its third-best record. That leaves just FIVE champions from outside the top-three regular season records over the last 36 seasons (or just 13.9 percent). On the eve of the 2016 playoffs I opined, should we expect any surprises? Or, are the record-setting Warriors a ‘lock’ to become back-to-back NBA champs? The 67-win Spurs owned this year’s second-best record and the 57-win Cavs had the third-best record. Anyone really think that this year’s champ will NOT come from one of the league’s “top-three?”
There have been just two upsets in this year’s postseason, the No. 4 Clippers losing a 2-0 lead to the 5th-seeded Blazers, when Portland won the final four games of that opening round series (injuries to BOTH Paul and Griffin just may have had something to do with the result) plus the No. 3 Thunder knocked off the second-seeded Spurs 4-2 in the the second round, out West. Over in the East, the higher seeded team won all seven series. The Warriors got a HUGE care from the Thunder (became just the 10th team to overcome a 3-1 deficit and win a best of seven series) in the conference finals and are back to defend their title AND the team’s record 73-win regular season. Awaiting them are the Cavs, for a rematch of last year’s Finals, as LBJ appears in his SIXTH consecutive NBA Finals, as well as the seventh of his career.
The Cavs swept their first two series and then after blowing out the the Raptors in the first two games of the Eastern Conference Finals, hit a ‘speed bump’ in losing Games 3 and 4 in Toronto. Hoverer, Cleveland rebounded with dominating wins in Games 5 and 6. Cleveland’s four wins over the Raptors came by an average margin of 28.5 points. This meeting between the Warriors and the Cavaliers will be the 13th time two teams have met in back-to-back NBA Finals. Since the end of the Bill Russell era, history says no. The Chicago Bulls in 1997 and 1998 are the only team in the past seven repeat matchups to win both times (against the Utah Jazz, in each case). Clearly, the Cavs are a MUCH better team than last year, with both Love and Irving healthy but the Warriors did beat the Cavs in both regular season meetings. Then again, BOTH of those games were played before Lue took over as head coach. Lue pointed out just that at his Wednesday press conference. "Organization-wise, it's the same two teams, but playing-wise and players-wise, we're a different team. Kevin and Kyrie are both healthy, the addition of (backup forward) Channing Frye, we're a completely different team than we were last year."
“King James” has been on the winning side in just TWO of his previous six Finals appearances, both times alongside of Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh. As has been well documented, the city of Cleveland has been without a major sports champions since the 1964 Browns of the NFL and LBJ badly wants to bring a championship to his city, plus he also surely knows a FIFTH loss in seven tries in the NBA Finals is not something he wants on his resume. Golden St head coach Steve Kerr is looking to make it back-to-back titles (in his first two season as a head coach) and said he expects Curry's competitive nature to be in high form as former NBA players and James , who questioned how valuable Curry is after the MVP tally, continue to hurl slights in his direction. "He doesn't have to say anything," Kerr said at his Wednesday press conference. "He does his talking through his play, basically, but he definitely is motivated by things that people say about him or things that he reads or anything like that. The guy is as gifted and skilled as he is, and I think one of his greatest attributes is his competitive fire."
Checking in on the postseason numbers to-date, home teams are 54-25 SU (.684) and 48-31 ATS (60.8%). Forty-eight of the 79 games have stayed under (60.8%) and those following the Zig-Zag theory are 33-32, which is minus-2.2 net games. It should also be noted that the team with the home court edge in the NBA Finals has gone 27-9 (75 percent) since Magic and Bird’s rookie season of 1979-80. Game 1 is tonight (9:00 ET on ABC), with the Warriors favored by six points. Golden St is slightly more than a 2-to-1 favorite to win the series.
Playoff Journal
By Larry Ness
Covers.com
The “Splash Brothers” combined for just 20 points in Game 1 of the NBA Finals, as neither All Star was able to find his range (duo shot a combined 8 of 27 or 29.6 percent, including 4 of 13 or 30.8 percent from three-point range). However, the Warriors did not even need their two biggest stars to flatten the Cavs in a 104-89 Game 1 victory. Shaun Livingston made 8 of 10 FGs while scoring a playoff career high 20 points, as he led the way for a Golden St bench which outscored the Cleveland reserves by a WHOPPING 45-10 margin!
The Cavs opened the 2016 postseason with 10 consecutive wins before losing Games 3 and 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals at Toronto. However, the team rebounded nicely with dominating 116-78 and 113-87 wins in Games 5 and 6. After the Warriors fought back from a 3-1 deficit to win their series against the Thunder, the two teams were headed for an NBA Finals rematch. LBJ dragged an injury-riddled Cleveland team along with him for six games in last year’s matchup but a fully healthy Cavaliers team didn’t seem any more capable of defeating the Warriors in Game 1 Thursday night, than did last year’s depleted unit .
LBJ and ALL the Cavs are well aware of the ‘whispers’ which say “The Cavs were able to cruise through the inferior Eastern Conference all season AND in the postseason to-date. They haven't really been tested.” Now everyone is anxious to see how the Cavaliers will respond after they took a ‘body blow’ in Game 1. LBJ had 23 points, 12 rebounds and nine assists in Game 1 but committed four turnovers. "When you're outscored 45-10 in bench points and give up 25 points off turnovers, you're not winning that game," James told reporters after the game. The Cavaliers are averaging 13.9 made three-pointers in the playoffs (most of any postseason team) but went 7-of-21 (33.3%) from beyond the arc in Game 1.
Golden State held the Cavaliers to 38.1 percent from the floor and only turned the ball over nine times in Game 1. Just ONE of those turnovers came from the reserves, as Iguodala, Livingston and Barbosa combined to shoot 18-of-24 from the floor (75%) to pick up the slack for Curry and Thompson. “Regardless of how the night’s going shooting for me or Klay, we definitely get a boost when our bench guys come in and change the game,” Curry told reporters. “We rely on that pretty much every night, whether it’s 45 points off the bench or just playing aggressive and continuing what we start.”
This year’s Finals features each conferences No. 1 seed, something which hasn’t happened since the Celtics beat the Lakers in the 2008 Finals. However, almost NO ONE considers the Cavs the NBA’s second-best team. Can Cleveland change the narrative? If so, the Cavs are almost in a a “must-win” situation here in Game 2. Game 1 winners have gone on to capture 22 of the last 32 NBA Finals and under the 2-3-2 format (adopted in 1985), the team with the home court edge is 24-7 (77%). Just ONE team in this format has lost first two games of Finals, then come back to win series. The Mavs won the first two games of 2006 Finals at home vs Heat and then had a 13-point lead with about six minutes to go in Game 3 in Miami. However, the Heat rallied to win 98-96 in Game 3 and then won the next three games as well, to take the series 4-2 (four straight wins). Talk about a choke job by Dallas!
Game 2 tips at 8:00 ET on ABC and checking in on the postseason numbers to-date, home teams are 55-25 SU (.688) and 49-31 ATS (61.3%). Forty-nine of the 80 games have stayed under (same 61.3%) and those following the Zig-Zag theory are 33-32, which is minus-2.2 net games (will have the Cavs tonight). Golden St is favored by points.
Playoff Journal
By Larry Ness
Covers.com
LBJ is in the NBA Finals for the SIXTH straight year and for the seventh time in his career. His Cavs lost Game 1 by the score of 104-89, which wasn’t exactly news. After all, the loss drops LBJ-led teams in 1-6 all-time in Game 1 of an NBA Finals. However, heading into Game 2, LBJ-led teams had won NINE consecutive Game 2s in an NBA playoff series after dropping Game 1 (stretched back to the 2009 Eastern Conference Finals). Therefore, Golden St’s 110-77 rout of Cleveland last Sunday (despite underwhelming performances from the “Splash Brothers” for a second straight game), has tongues wagging that this Cleveland team is NOT ready for primetime.
The Cavs were able to cruise through the inferior Eastern Conference all season AND in the postseason prior to the finals. However, this year’s team hardly looks any more capable of beating the Warriors than last year’s injury-ravaged squad did. LBJ was held to FIVE points in the second of half of Game 2, one in which the Cavs were held to just 33 points, as a team. “King James” was held to 19 points, the first time in the 2016 postseason in which he didn’t reach the 20-point mark. In fact, it ended his run of 25 consecutive playoff games of scoring 20 points or more.
Kevin Love took a blow to the head and is following the league’s mandated “concussion protocol,” putting his availability for Game 3 at risk. Cleveland’s starting guards, as well as their backups, have been just AWFUL. Irving is 12 of 36 (33%) from the floor, including 1 of 7 on threes. J.R. Smith has played 69 minutes in the two games, but the team’s “shooting guard” (if you will pardon the pun) has attempted just NINE shots (made just three), while totaling eight points. Backup PG “Delly” is 3 of 12 from the floor and Smith’s backup, Shumpert, has played 37 minutes but scored a grand total of SIX points.
Meanwhile, Golden St’s bench has contributed 45 and 40 points in the first two games plus Draymond Green may already be preparing his acceptance speech for Finals MVP, averaging 22.0-9.0-6.0, after a 28-point effort last Sunday. What happens if Curry (averaging 14.5 PPG) and Thompson (13.0 PPG) find their rhythm? Cleveland’s four starters (not including LBJ) were a combined 12 of 35 (34.3 percent) from the floor in Game 2 and the team averaging 14.4 made three-pointers per game while dispatching Detroit, Atlanta and Toronto, has gone just 12 of 44 (27.3%) from behind the arc in the first two games of the Finals. Then again, it’s always darkest before the dawn. We’ll see.
Golden St has gone up 2-0 in these Finals, by the greatest margin of combined victory (48 points) for any team taking a 2-0 lead in NBA Finals history. Speaking of history, teams taking a 2-0 lead in the NBA Finals are 28-3 (90.3 percent) all-time. Looking for a bigger sample size? How about the fact that in NBA playoff history, teams taking a 2-0 lead in any seven-game series have gone on to win 253 of 271 previous series (that’s 93.4 percent!). Checking in on the postseason numbers to-date, home teams are 56-25 SU (.692) and 50-31 ATS (61.7%). Fifty of the 81 games have stayed under (same 61.7%) and those following the Zig-Zag theory are 33-33, which is minus-3.3 net games. The Cavs opened a one-point favorite in game 3 (9:00 ET on ABC) but with the question of Love’s availability unknown, the game is pick-em or even Golden St minus-1 as of Wednesday morning.
Playoff Journal
By Larry Ness
Covers.com
The Beatles famously sang “All You Need is Love” but on the cusp of Game 4 of the NBA Finals, the Cavs may not feel that way. After losing the first two games of the series by a combined 48 points (largest margin of victory by any team in going up 2-0 in NBA Finals history), the Cavs returned home and were without the services of Kevin Love. Love was deemed not ready for action due to the NBA’s concussion protocol and Lue inserted Richard Jefferson into the starting lineup in his place. Jefferson contributed nine points and eight rebounds Wednesday but it would be unfair to say that Love’s absence was the reason the Cavs played so well in Game 3.
LBJ and the Cavaliers were MUCH more aggressive in Game 3, the first home game in the series for Cleveland, which came on the heels of a 33-point loss at Oracle Arena in Game 2. Irving had 16 points in the the first quarter and LBJ had 13 in the third. James finished with 32-11-6 (his 82nd playoff game with 30-plus points), while Irving added 30 points. J.R. Smith, who had attempted just NINE shots in the first two games (while scoring eight points), had 20 points in making 7 of 13 from the floor (5 of 10 on threes). Tristan Thompson had 14 points and 13 rebounds, as the Cavs dominated the boards, outrebounding the Warriors 52-32. The Cavs shot 52.7 percent as a team and after making just 12 of 44 three-point attempts in the first two games, made 12 of 25 in Game 3.
The “Splash Brothers” continued to struggle for Golden St plus Green, who was averaging 22.0 PPG after two games, made just 2 of 8 (0 of 4 on threes) for six points. Curry had only two points and finished with 19 points and was a total non-factor. So was Thompson, who had only 10 points, as the duo combined to shoot 4 of 16 on threes. Curry averaged 27.9 PPG vs OKC but has averaged just 16.0 PPG in the Finals, while Thompson's fallen from 24.7 PPG vs the Thunder to 12.0 PPG against the Cavs. The Warriors are now 0-4 this postseason in Game 3s and that’s been a pattern these last two postseasons. Golden St is 2-6 the last two postseason in Game 3s, while going 28-5 in all other games.
Meanwhile, the the Cavs’ Game 3 win makes them 8-0 this postseason at home. After winning 106-101 against Detroit in Game 1 of that opening round series, the Cavs have covered each of their last seven home games, with a winning margin of 24.4 PPG! The Cavs are 13-0 this postseason when reaching triple digits (have averaged 110.3 PPG in those contests) but 0-4 when held under 100 points (have averaged a modest 87.3 PPG in those losses). Home teams have dominated the play in the conference finals and now the NBA Finals, going 13-3 SU and ATS.
Checking in on the postseason numbers to-date, home teams are 57-25 SU (.695) and 51-31 ATS (62.2%). Fifty of the 82 games have stayed under (that’s 61.0%) and those following the Zig-Zag theory are 34-33 but minus-2.3 net games. Tyronn Lue has said he will not determine playing rotations or a starting lineup until midday Friday, when medical personnel decides along with Love whether he's ready to return to game action. "We miss his rebounding. We miss his post presence. We miss his three-point shooting," Lue said Thursday. "So we definitely want him back, but he has to take the steps necessary to get himself back. So just staying positive with him. We know it's a tough time being in the NBA Finals. It's something you dreamed about your whole life, and having to deal with this is tough. But myself, my coaching staff, teammates, we all have his back and we wish him well and need him back."
Will Game 4’s outcome be effected by Lue’s decision? Cleveland’s Game 3 rout marked just the third time in NBA Finals history a 20-point win for one team was followed by a 20-point win for the other. Checking in with the two-time MVP. Curry said, "It was all me. They were playing aggressive defense, and they came out with a big punch. I didn't do anything about it or play my game, and for me to do what I need to do to help my team, I have to play a hundred times better than that, especially in the first quarter, to kind of control the game, and I didn't do it." Draymond Green added this. "We were extremely soft. We got bullied, punked, whatever word you can find for it."
Golden St hadn’t lost back-to-back games all year (12-0 SU and 9-3 ATS following a loss), before losing Games 3 and 4 in OKC to the Thunder. Will Curry and Thompson regain their form and give the Warriors a 3-1 lead? “Just think about the OKC series. We're down 3-1, he (Curry) hadn't played well," Kerr said Thursday. "Look what he did the last few games. So that's Steph. That's who he is. He always responds. He's got a huge heart, competitive as hell, and extremely talented. I know how he will respond. He'll play well. He always does."
The Cavaliers Game 3 win got them off the proverbial mat in the Finals but LBJ said Thursday the mindset better be the same entering Game 4. Yes, the Cavs have been a ‘monster’ at home in the 2016 postseason (see details above) but quoting LBJ,"We can't afford to go down 3-1 and go into their building and give them confidence going back. So it's a do-or-die game for us still.” Game 4 tips at 9:00 ET on ABC with the Cavs a two-point favorite as of late Friday morning. My next journal will be Monday, available by 12 noon ET. Will it be 3-1 Golden St or tied at two-all?
Playoff Journal
By Larry Ness
Covers.com
Curry (38 points ) and Thompson (25) combined to make 11 of 22 three-point attempts in Game 4, as the Warriors set an NBA Finals record by connecting on 17 three-pointers. The Cavs led 55-50 at the half but in the second half, the Cavs turned into a two-man team with LBJ and Irving taking 33 of Cleveland’s 38 shots after the break. The strategy, if one can call it that, didn’t work, as the Warriors outscored the Cavs 58-42 and pulled away late for a 108-97 win. It marked Cleveland’s first home loss of the 2016 postseason (had opened 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS), as the Cavs were held under 100 points for the FIFTH time in this year’s playoffs.
Simply put, the Cavs are 13-0 this postseason when reaching triple digits (have averaged 110.3 PPG in those contests) but 0-5 when held under 100 points, while averaging just 89.2 PPG. The Cavs shot 6 of 25 from three-point range in Game 4 and are now a combined 18 of 69 (26.1 percent) from behind the arc in their three losses in this year’s Finals, compared to the 12 of 25 the team shot from three-point range in its lone win (Game 3). It’s been well reported that 28 of the 31 teams to fall behind 0-2 in the NBA Finals, just three have come back to win. In each of the those cases (the 1969 Celtics, the 1977 Blazers and the 2006 Heat), those “bounce-back” teams evened the series at two-all. With Cleveland losing Game 4, it’s impossible to overlook the fact that NO team has come back to win an NBA Finals after falling behind three games to one.
Golden State’s Game 4 win was the first by a road team in this series and overall, home teams in the Conference and NBA Finals are 13-4 SU and ATS. Checking in on the postseason numbers to-date, home teams are 57-26 SU (.687) and 51-32 ATS (61.4%). Fifty-one of the 83 games have stayed under (also 61.4%) and those following the Zig-Zag theory are 35-33 but minus-1.3 net games. Tonight’s Game 5 tips at 9:00 ET on ABC and the Warriors are favored by 5 1/2 points.
Clearly, the biggest storyline to develop over the weekend was that Golden State forward Draymond Green is suspended for Monday night's Game 5. Upon league office review, he was assessed a flagrant foul 1 for his actions against LeBron James in Game 4. The penalty was announced Sunday by Kiki VanDeWeghe, the NBA's executive vice president of basketball operations. "The cumulative points system is designed to deter flagrant fouls in our game" VanDeWeghe said in a statement. "While Draymond Green's actions in Game 4 do not merit a suspension as a standalone act, the number of flagrant points he has earned triggers a suspension for Game 5."
Green will serve that suspension as teammates attempt to clinch their second straight NBA title. He has averaged 14.8 points, 9.3 rebounds and 5.8 assists in the series and was a candidate for NBA Finals MVP. Warriors head coach Steve Kerr learned of the suspension from GM Bob Myers and pulled Green aside to break the news to him. Kerr said Green was "disappointed" to learn of the suspension. However, Kerr declined to respond when asked if he was disappointed that Green put himself in the situation. "That's just something that stays within the team. It's not anything I'm going to comment on," Kerr told reporters at Sunday's press conference. "I'm disappointed for him that he can't play in a big game. But the ruling has been made, and we've got to move on." Green can't be in the building for Monday's game due to the suspension.
Speaking of Finals MVP, I saw an excellent article of the weekend which opined, “has a head coach ever been named Finals MVP?” It said in part, that Kerr deserves a look, as he’s masterfully handled this series, winning with his role players, winning with his stars, prodding better efforts out of everyone. He even threw unlikely substitution patterns in there and caught Cleveland off guard. Anyone expect James Michael McAdoo and Anderson Varejao to combine for serious minutes? In stark contrast, Cleveland's Tyronn Lue has ridden his starters for more and more minutes, 46 out of LeBron, 43 for J.R. Smith and Kyrie Irving. This after they played 40, 38 and 37 respectively Wednesday, in a 30-point blowout victory. By the fourth quarter of Game 4, all three were gassed. Irving shot 3 of 10 in the quarter, LeBron couldn’t compete on the glass and no Cavalier could catch Steph and Klay on the perimeter. It was a disaster. It’s a persuasive commentary.
Playoff Journal
By Larry Ness
Covers.com
The Cavs and Warriors were tied at 61-all at the half in Game 5. However, while LBJ and Irving continued to stay hot in the second half (each would finish with 41 points), the Warriors maged just 23 points in the third quarter, entering the final period down by nine. A 13-point fourth quarter doomed them, as the Cavs kept their season alive with an impressive 112-97 win. Golden St shot just 26.7 percent as a team in that second half, including a woeful 3 of 21 on three-pointers (after making 11 of 22 in the first half). Iquodala started in place of Green and had 15-11-6 but the bench added only 15 points, on 5 of 20 shooting. Bogut was scoreless in eight minutes (got hurt in the third quarter) and Harrison Barnes was a dreadful 2 of 14 from the floor.
Thompson had 37 points and Curry 25 (went a combined 11 of 25 on threes) but it was not nearly enough. The Cavs shot 54.3 percent as a team, after connecting on just 43.6 percent through the first four games of the series. Thompson (14 rebounds) gave Cleveland a strong game but the other two starters did not. Love attempted just FIVE shots (scoring two points), while J.R. Smith was 3 of 9 for 10 points. One would think that the Cavs won’t be able to win again with just LBJ and Irving contributing, but then again...
Golden State’s Game 4 win was the first by a road team in this series, then the Cavs made it two in a row for the road team in Game 5 at Oakland. Overall, home teams in the Conference and NBA Finals are 13-5 SU and ATS. Checking in on the postseason numbers to-date, home teams are 57-27 SU (.679) and 51-33 ATS (60.7%). Fifty-one of the 84 games have stayed under (also 60.7%) and those following the Zig-Zag theory are 36-33 but minus-0.3 net games. Tonight’s Game 6 tips at 9:00 ET on ABC and the Cavaliers are favored by two points.
The Warriors’ loss on Monday dropped teams up 3-1 in the NBA Finals to 17-16 in Game 5s, all-time. The Cavaliers will try to make history and stay alive by winning Game 6 of the NBA Finals on Thursday night in Cleveland against the defending champion Warriors. Facing a “must-win” situation at home, the Cavs likely can’t help but recall the agony of the 2015 NBA Finals when the Warriors sealed the championship in Game 6 at Quicken Loans Arena. History tells us that only TWO of 32 teams down 3-1 in NBA Finals have managed to take the series to seven games, the last time coming all the way back in 1966. A Golden St win would mark only the SECOND time a team has clinched a championship on an opponents floor two years in a row (the Boston Celtics won back-to-back titles in Los Angeles in 1968 and 1969).
Naturally, the Cavs are hoping that the team’s Game 5 momentum carries over to Game 6. LBJ and Kyrie Irving scored 41 points apiece in Cleveland's 112-97 victory in Game 5 (first time in NBA history that two players scored 40 points in a single game), denying the Warriors a chance to repeat on their home court at Oracle Arena. Of course, Cleveland knows Game 6 will be different with Draymond Green back on the court for the Warriors. He missed Game 5 while serving a one-game suspension for his below-the-belt hit on James. "My only job is to get this win, man," LBJ said. "We have a great opportunity to protect home court and go into two of the best words ever, and that's Game 7. So hopefully we can protect home. That's all that matters."
Green said "it was one of the weirdest days of my life" when he was not able to play in Game 5 and could not be in the building. "I have a strong belief that if I play in Game 5, we win. But I didn't because I put myself in a situation where I wasn't able to play," Green said after watching the Cavs' victory from O.co Coliseum next to Oracle Arena while serving his suspension. "I move on from the suspension. That was Game 5; we're here in Game 6.” However, the Warriors will be without center Andrew Bogut, who will miss the remainder of the Finals due to a left knee injury. An MRI revealed that Bogut will not require surgery but he will be sidelined 6-8 weeks. Bogut had FIVE blocks in the Warriors' Game 2 victory but his role had been limited during the series. He only averaged 12 minutes per game, putting up 3.2 points and grabbing 3.0 rebounds per game. He’s averaged 4.6 & 5.7 in 22 postseason games. The Warriors are expected to start either Draymond Green at center with sixth man Andre Iguodala added to the starting lineup or start backup center Festus Ezeli in Game 6.
With the Warriors coming off a loss, let’s note that this season (post and regular), Golden St is 14-1 SU and 11-4 ATS following a loss. Looking at the Cavs, let’s note that Cleveland is 14-0 this postseason when reaching triple digits (has averaged 110.4 PPG) but 0-5 when failing to each 100 points (89.2 PPG in those contests).
Playoff Journal
By Larry Ness
Covers.com
Game 6 of the NBA Finals had very little drama as the Warriors went 0 of 6 from the floor with two turnovers in their first eight possessions. It was 31-11 Cleveland at the end of the first quarter and while Golden St did cut the lead to nine points entering the fourth quarter, Cleveland won handily, 115-101. LBJ matched his 41-point effort from Game 5, adding eight rebounds and 11 assists to become just the fifth player in Finals history to post back-to-back 40-point games. He joined Shaq, MJ, Rick Barry and Jerry West, who did it twice. Irving added 23 points plus Thompson delivered a double-double with 15 & 16 (note: he’s got 44 rebounds and 35 points in Cleveland’s three wins).
The Cavs shot 51.9 percent as a team, following shooting 54.3 percent in Game 5. that’s after connecting on only 43.6 percent through the first four games of the series. Golden St made just 40.2 percent from the floor, including 15 of 39 on threes, which followed the team going 3 of 21 on threes in the second half of Game 5. Curry had a quiet’ 30, Thompson a ‘quiet’ 25 and Green just 8-10-6. Barnes has been brutal, following a 2 of 14 effort in Game 5 by going 0 of 8 (0 of 5 on threes) in 16 minutes in Game 6. With Iquodala starting for a second straight game, the Golden St bench, which scored just FIVE points (on 5 of 20 shooting) in Game 5, contributed 33 points. However, Barbosa had 14 of those points.
Game 7 is tonight at 8:00 ET on ABC. Checking in on the postseason numbers to-date, home teams are 58-27 SU (.682) and 52-33 ATS (61.2%). Fifty-one of the 85 games have stayed under (60.0%) and those following the Zig-Zag theory are 36-34 but minus-1.4 net games, guaranteeing it will be a losing proposition for the 2016 postseason. The Warriors are favored by five points in what will be the 19th Game 7 in NBA Finals history. It should come as no surprise that home teams are 15-3 (.833) in the previous 18. That’s in keeping with the fact that home teams are 101-24 (.808) all-time in Game 7s (4-0 SU and ATS in the 2016 postseason). According to Big Al’s database, home teams are 52-13 SU and 39-24-2 ATS (61.9%) in Game 7s, dating to 1990.
The Cavs became the 32nd team in Finals history to fall behind 0-2 and are well aware that just THREE of the previous 31 teams were able to come back to win the series. All three of those teams had tied the series at two-all before winning but the Cavs fell behind 3-1 in this year’s Finals and face the fact that no team has recovered from a 3-1 deficit in the Finals to eventually win (note: only 10 of 233 teams have won a seven-game series after falling behind 3-1, which is 4.3 percent!). However, here the Cavs are in a Game 7, just the THIRD team in Finals history to fall behind 3-1 and force a Game 7. However, the two previous teams to do so, the 1951 NY Knicks and the 1966 LA Lakers, both lost their respective Game 7s on the road.
This series is tied at three-all and incredibly, each team has scored exactly 610 points after six games. However, not a SINGLE game has been decided by less that double digits, as the Warriors have won by 15, 33 and 11 points, while the Cavs have won by 30, 15 and 14 points. That’s an average margin of victory by the winning team of 19.7 PPG! As all know, the Warriors set a single-season record with 73 wins and enter this game having lost back-to-back games for just the second time this year (Warriors are 14-2 and 11-5 ATS following a loss this year), both coming this postseason. The Warriors lost Games 3 and 4 in OKC but then won THREE straight to advance to the Finals, with a chance the repeat as NBA champs.
That sets the stage, as legacies are on the line in this one. My final journal will be available Tuesday, with a recap of this historic season.