First Round Playoff Trends
By Marc Lawrence
VegasInsider.com
With help from our trusted well-oiled database, let’s examine a handful of time-tested proven theories that have lined our pockets during the opening round of playoffs since 1991. Here is what the machine has to say.
No. 8 Seeds Are Behind The 8-Ball
For the most part, No. 8 seeds in the NBA playoffs (the Chicago Bulls and the Portland Trail Blazers this season) are teams that likely scratched and clawed their way into the post-season. Not good enough to be seriously considered threats against top-seeded opponents but just barely better than the dregs of the league.
Rest assured, their life expectancy is not long at all, as they’ve lost over 71% of time (56-146 SU) in games against No. 1 seeds since 1996. In fact, only the 1996 New York Knicks, the 2007 Golden State Warriors and the 2012 Philadelphia 76ers were good enough to pull the rug on top seeded foes and advance to Round Two of the playoff.
And you can virtually write them off in games against No. 1 seeds that are off back-to-back SU and ATS wins. These guys scratch out of the match with alarming regularity, going 4-27 SU and 10-21 ATS, including 0-17 SU and 3-14 ATS whenever the 8-ballers are off a spread loss of 4 or more points in their last game. Be aware.
Upset Losers Are Winners
Yes, you read that right... it’s not an oxymoron. Instead, it’s a powerful handicapping edge. It occurs whenever a team was upset as a favorite in an opening round game and is at home in the game immediately thereafter
That’s confirmed by the fact that they are 94-25 SU and 71-44-4 ATS, a rock solid number 61.7 winning spread angle. And if these upset victims happen to be a No. 1, 2, or 3 seed they are a jaw-dropping 50-6 SU and 37-17-2 ATS in these follow-up affairs.
Don’t be afraid of these chalkbusters. That’s because they don’t lose their composure. Instead they almost always dig down deep and respond with aplomb in games after being embarrassed.
Double-Digit Dogma
Surprisingly, in the right role, double-digit underdogs do well in opening round contests, especially when playing off a playoff loss. These overweight puppies are 35-20-2 ATS in this role.
And if these same guys lost as a double-digit dog in their last game they zoom to 26-12-1 ATS, including 18-5 ATS against non-division foes.
Granted, these dogs are not exactly pedigree puppies but the fact of the matter is they tend to come up big against disinterested favorites not capable of chopping heavy lumber.
And Down Goes Frazier
The psyche of teams that are not playing well comes immediately to the surface during the opening round of the NBA playoffs. That’s evidenced by the fact that teams riding a three game-exact loss skein are wobbly and oftentimes one punch away from being counted out.
With glass-like jaws, these swirling teams are just 47-65 SU and 47-61-4 ATS away from home this round, including 7-11 SU and 6-12 ATS in lid-lifters.
Worst of all, road dogs of more than six points on a three game exact losing skid are 3-29 SU and 10-22 ATS on their way to the canvas.
And just an FYI: teams that lose the first three games in an opening round series are just 12-23 SU and 13-19-3 ATS in Game Fours, including 6-15-2 ATS as dogs of four or more points.
Trending
Defending champions (the Cleveland Cavaliers in this case) are 78-34 SU and 62-46-4 ATS overall in opening round games the next season, including 17-8 SU and 16-8-1 ATS in Game One of Round One the following season.
Furthermore, they are13-3-1 ATS following a double-digit loss during opening round games, and also a spotless 8-0 ATS when taking more than five points in this round.
Handicapping the Playoffs
By ASAWins.com
NBA Champions need to be efficient
Efficiency rating and rankings have become the standard measurement of NBA teams and players and if you are not familiar with those numbers, and you’re a sports bettor, you might want to do a little research and get to know what they mean.
Very simply put, Offensive Efficiency (OEFF = points scored per 100 possessions) and Defensive Efficiency (DEFF = points allowed per 100 possessions) are great ways to evaluate teams and players, and measure how good they truly are.
The league average for OEFF/DEFF this season was 108.8. It's no surprise the Golden State Warriors was the most efficient offense in the NBA at 115.6 points per 100 possessions while the San Antonio Spurs held the best defensive efficiency rating in the league of 103.6.
These numbers can be useful in predicting an NBA Champion if past history tells us anything which we’ll explain below.
Going back to the 2008-09 season, the Finals featured the LA Lakers and the Orlando Magic, which the Lakers won 4 games to 1. The Lakers finished the regular season ranked 3rd in OEFF and 6th in DEFF. Orlando wasn't as good statistically as the Lakers when it came to efficiency ratings as the Magic were 12th in OEFF and 1st in DEFF.
Below are the Finals Champions and their overall efficiency rankings for the past eight Championships.
NBA CHAMPIONS FROM 2008 on and OEFF/DEFF regular season rankings:
2008-09 LA Lakers (OEFF = 3rd, DEFF = 6th)
2009-10 LA Lakers (OEFF = 11th, DEFF = 4)
2010-11 Dallas Mavericks (OEFF = 8th, DEFF = 7th)
2011-12 Miami Heat (OEFF = 8th, DEFF = 4th)
2012-13 Miami Heat (OEFF = 1st, DEFF = 9th)
2013-14 San Antonio Spurs (OEFF = 7th, DEFF = 3rd)
2014-15 Golden State Warriors (OEFF = 2nd, DEFF = 1st)
2015-16 Cleveland Cavaliers (OEFF = 3rd, DEFF = 10th)
So you can see for yourself the only team that won a Championship in the last eight years that had an OEFF or DEFF NOT in the top 10 of the NBA for that season was the 09-10 Lakers (11th in offensive efficiency). Every team that has won a Championship in the past eight Finals has had a Defensive Efficiency ranking in the top 10 at the end of the regular season. So using this model (top 11 OEFF and top 10 in DEFF) to predict this year’s Champion we can eliminate everyone but the following teams two teams: Golden State and San Antonio. Toronto, LA Clippers and Boston all ranked in the top 10 in OEFF but were just outside of the top 10 in DEFF.
2016-17 Regular Season Efficiency Rankings for the Math Model "Contenders"
Golden State Warriors: OEFF 1st, DEFF 2nd
San Antonio Spurs: OEFF 7th, DEFF 1st
Outside looking in:
LA Clippers: OEFF 5th, DEFF 12th
Toronto Raptors: OEFF 6th, DEFF 11th
Boston Celtics: OEFF 7th, DEFF 13th
The one 'big' contender that is missing from the above list is the Cleveland Cavaliers, who have the 3rd most efficient offense in the NBA (OEFF) but rank a horrendous 21st in DEFF. To put that in perspective the Cavs are barely ahead of teams like the Orlando, Brooklyn, Sacramento and New York!
But, we won't write the Cavs off entirely because they are in the East and have some of the best offensive weapons in the NBA on their roster. The Cavs have a better overall efficiency differential (OEFF minus DEFF) than Boston and Washington who would be the other contenders in the East, other than Toronto.
Cleveland has been awful defensively all season long and everyone is speculating on whether this can 'turn it on' come playoff time. Remember, the Cavs have spent a ton of money on LeBron's hand-picked roster and are millions over the salary cap with a roster full of offensive weapons. I can't even begin to imagine how bad this team would have been had they traded for Carmelo Anthony who isn't known as a defensive specialist.
LBJ has been quick to call out his teammates for their lack of defense but maybe he should look in the mirror as he hasn't made 1st team All-Defense for three straight seasons. Last season the Cavs DEFF rating was 104.5, which has ballooned to 110.4 this season and we doubt they can fix things fast enough to win another championship. Remember, this team is just 21-20 SU their last 41 games which is not a confidence boosting record for my money.
The Cavs were also just 5-7 SU this year when playing top 5 teams (Golden State 10-3). The big problem with fading the Cavs is that they aligned themselves perfectly in the East. They'll play Indiana and more than likely Toronto, who they've owned (6-2 SU combined record) and avoided Washington who they have matchup problems with. Cleveland may come out of the East but they aren't beating either Golden State or San Antonio from the West.
NBA Champions: Warriors but...
The eventual Champion comes from the West and will be either the Golden State Warriors or San Antonio Spurs. Golden State has flexed their muscle down the stretch of the season by winning 15 of their last sixteen games and six of those wins came against current playoff teams. Golden State will more than likely win it all in 2017 but as far as a futures bet they very little value at -$225.
If you are looking for a better return on your investment, the Spurs at +$800 are an intriguing proposition. Statistically, the Spurs are nearly as good as Golden State in both OEFF and DEFF but they lack the marquee Super Stars. San Antonio is deep, has veteran leadership, size, toughness, rebounding and the best coach in the NBA. Their efficiency differential was +7.6 which was slightly lower than Golden State's +11.6, but remember that is with Coach "Popp" resting players on a nightly basis all season long in preparation for the playoffs. We feel the Warriors will win it all this season but the Spurs might be worth a small investment at +$800.
Opening Round Series Best Bet: Washington Wizards
Washington Wizards (-$210) over Atlanta Hawks - We like the full body of work the Wizards have done this season and won't be fooled by the Hawks late season success. In our opinion, the Wizards have a shot at winning the East and could represent in the Finals. They are a top 10 team in overall efficiency differential (+1.8 ) and of course have a dynamic backcourt with John Wall and Bradley Beal. As far as the first series is concerned, the Hawks finished strong by winning 5 of their last six games, but their season stats tell the true story.
Despite being very good defensively, their overall EDIFF ranks in the bottom half of the NBA and their offense has been atrocious. They are 19th in eFG% shooting (Washington 6th), 27th in OEFF (WA 7th) and rank in the bottom ten of the league in points scored per game (Wiz 5th). Atlanta's backcourt of Hardaway Jr. and Dennis Schroder will have their hands full with the Wizards guards as was the case in the regular season when Washington won 3 of four in the series with Wall and Beal +25 total points in scoring.
Take the Wizards in the opening round.
Playoff Futures Bets
By Sportsbook.ag
Now that the long-awaited NBA playoffs have arrived, the anticipation of a “three-match” between the Cavs and Warriors in the NBA Finals is starting to get in full swing. Both teams are prohibitive favorites to come out of their respective conferences, but both teams also enter the postseason with some concerns.
The concerns are much bigger on Cleveland's side as they didn't play great basketball the past few months and their defense has basically gone down the tube. They've blown multiple double-digit leads over the past few weeks and there are many NBA bettors that have little to no faith in the Cavs this year.
Golden State remained dominant up until the end, but having breezed through the regular season there are some situational concerns the Warriors have yet to really deal with. Which one of their superstars will they rely on to take the last shot in a close game? Can they find their groove again with Durant after he's been out for so long? It will definitely be interesting to watch the Warriors as they progress through the playoffs and it's there team that kicks off my futures wagers for the 2017 NBA playoffs.
Golden State win the 2017 NBA Championship: NO (+175)
The Warriors definitely deserve to be the favorites to hoist the trophy at the end of it all, but by no means should they be -220 to do so. Taking the rest of the league at +175 odds is simply too good to pass up here because one key injury or one bad stretch of games at any point and the Warriors will be left fighting for their playoff lives. Figuring out who will take that last shot in crunch time is a bigger concern then most people realize and the Warriors unselfish nature that has built them into a powerhouse in this league may come back to bite them in these playoffs. Superstars want to be the hero this time of year and if someone like Durant feels like they are getting overlooked in those clutch spots, the whole “Big 3” in Golden State might hit too many speed bumps to play at their best.
Aside from that, Houston is more than capable of matching Golden State point for point in a series and the Spurs have had tremendous success against Golden State this year. Even the simple idea of Golden State losing two in a row a few times this year for the first time in years has shed part of that invincibility aura that surrounds them, added to the first unveiling last NBA Finals when Cleveland came back from 3-1. We can't forget about those Cavs either...
Cleveland Cavaliers Win the 2017 NBA Championship (+380)
For all the worries the Cavs have right now, their recent history suggests they will have very little problem flipping the switch come playoff time and get back to the dominant team we've gotten used too. All the losses down the stretch – especially some of those blown leads – are a little concerning, but when you look at it from the lens of Cleveland desperately wanted to avoid having the Chicago Bulls on their side of the bracket (Cleveland was 0-4 SU vs Chicago this year) then all the tanking and resting guys at the end makes a lot more sense. The Cavs have to figure that they'll let someone else do their dirty work for them in eliminating Chicago and they feel more than comfortable going through Indiana and then Toronto/Milwaukee to reach the Conference Finals. It's really quite a smart plan by the Cavs, and for a team that's been saying for months during these down times that they weren't going to show their hand, the big picture gets clearer and clearer.
A run through the East is very likely and Cleveland already knows they can win in Golden State, and likely don't mind potential matchups with the Spurs or Rockets either. All of their struggles down the stretch will be old news shortly, but it's those struggles that have pushed this line all the way up to +380 after hanging out in the +250-300 range the majority of the year and the value there is undeniable.
San Antonio or Houston Wins the Western Conference (+500 or +1200)
Going back to the belief that many thing Golden State will cruise to another Finals appearance, I wouldn't be so quick to pull the trigger on that. I mentioned before that San Antonio had tremendous success against the Warriors this year and Houston has to believe that a date with Golden State in the Western Conference Finals is a matchup that suits them quite well. These prices are too good to pass up right now, although many may want to wait to see who exactly ends up facing Golden State in the Western Conference Finals before making the wager.
Playoff Zig-Zag Theory
By Marc Lawrence
VegasInsider.com
In NBA handicapping circles, Zig Zags are trendy applications that have been profitable moneymakers during the playoffs.
The premise is simple:
‘Play On’ a team off a playoff loss in its very next game
The theory is that in a short series involving imminent elimination, a team in more inclined to bounce back with a good effort off a losing performance than it is to continue its losing ways.
How have these plays held up of late?
You might be surprised.
Here are point-spread results of NBA Playoff Zig Zags from 1991 through 2016.
Game On, Dude
Overall: 855-760-726-38 (52.9%)
Game Two: 209-169-13 (55.3%)
Game Three: 212-172-6 (55.2%)
Game Four: 175-177-170-8 (49.7%)
Game Five: 142-129-7 (52.4%)
Game Six: 85-81-2 (51.2%)
Game Seven: 32-32-2 (50.0%)
The moderate strength of NBA Zig Zags appears to be in Games 3 and 4 where collectively they become a better than 55% point spread proposition on the blind.
Burn Baby Burn
Like all things that are popular, though, they eventually burn out and revert back to the norm.
A combination of the ‘law of averages’ and an adjustment by the odds makers has seen the NBA Zig Zags go up in smoke since 2001.
That’s confirmed by the fact that these plays slipped dramatically the last 16 years (2001-2016), going 544-511-28 – or 51.5% - overall as opposed to a 311-249-10 mark – or 55.5% - in games played from 1991-2000.
That’s a decline of 4 full percentage points. Or in bottom line terms, they have been money burners on the blind the last 15 seasons. That’s what I would call a major buzz kill.
Round ‘Em Up
Here is a breakdown of how the Zig Zags have fared during each round of the NBA Playoffs since 1991:
Round One: 410-365-22 (52.9%)
Round Two: 257-222-7 (53.7%)
Round Three: 125-117-7 (51.7%)
Round Four: 63-56-3 (52.9%)
While it appears Round Two holds a scant edge, it should be noted that home teams off a double-digit loss in Round Two have yielded the largest profits, as they are 86-56-3 (60.5%).
Planting The Seeds
Here is a breakdown of how the Zig Zags have fared by seed during NBA Playoffs:
No. 1 Seeds: 125-111-5 (53.0%)
No. 2 Seeds: 118-99-4 (54.4%)
No. 3 Seeds: 104-90-9 (53.3%)
No. 4 Seeds: 83-81-1 (50.7%)
No. 5 Seeds: 79-75-3 (51.3%)
No. 6 Seeds: 69-60-2 (53.4%)
No. 7 Seeds: 48-68-4 (41.4%)
No. 8 Seeds: 68-49-5 (58.1%)
Note these results are since the 1996 season, when our database first began charting seeds.
Note the disparate results that abound between No. 7 and No. 8 seeds.
Rocky Mountain High
So when is it we can still expect to catch the best possible result when firing up with these with NBA Zig Zags these days, you ask?
Simple. Look to support double-digit underdogs that scored 88 or less points in their last game as they’ve gone 32-13-2 ATS since 1991. That’s a pretty high 71.1% winning percentage when you think about it.
So now instead of zigging when you should be zagging, check out the optimum roles outlined above... and enjoy the games.