NBA Playoffs Preview
By Bruce Marshall
The Stanley Cup playoffs, this ain’t.
Whenever postseason time rolls around in the NBA, the script usually unfolds in a similar manner. Mild surprises happen every now and then, but major upsets are rare. Expecting something akin to the first round of last year’s NHL Stanley Cup playoffs in the Eastern Conference when the seventh (the Flyers) and 8th (the Canadiens) seeds both won in the first round, and both eventually advancing to the conference final, is about as likely as Joy Behar getting a talk show on the Fox News Channel. In other words, don’t hold your breath waiting for a Sixers-Pacers Eastern title mathcup.
Then again, notable upsets happen once in a while in the NBA postseason. We’ve been around long enough to recall 1994, when the eighth-seeded, Dikembe Mutombo-led Nuggets knocked off the top seeded Sonics, and 1999, when the eighth-seeded Knicks not only KO’d the East top seed Heat in the first round, but advanced all of the way to the Finals. In those days, first rounds were competed on a best-of-five basis; since changing to a best-of-seven format, the only 8 vs. 1 winner was Baron Davis and Golden State in 2007 when knocking off Dallas. Some say the Mavericks haven’t been the same since. So the Bulls and Spurs have been forewarned.
Whatever, NBA playoff action can be compelling stuff. Following is a quick preview of first-round matchups in both conferences.
EAST: Indiana (8) vs. Chicago (1)... As mentioned above, we’re not expecting a Stanley Cup-like first-round surprise in this matchup. After all, someone had to qualify as the East’s final playoff participant. The Pacers, at 37-45, were merely less bad than the teams finishing behind them in the conference race.
It’s worth noting, however, that Indiana did scratch out a winning record after Frank Vogel replaced Jim O’Brien as head coach in late January (ironically right after the Bulls rolled over the Pacers 110-89 on January 29), and Vogel is 1-0 vs. Chicago HC Tom Thibodeau, beating the Bulls in overtime in their last meeting on March 18. Indiana had some success on the offensive glass vs. Chicago this season, so expect Thibodeau to use more of his bigs in the rotation; look for extra minutes for Kurt Thomas (who grabbed a season-high 18 rebounds when starting against the Pacers back on Jan. 14) and Omer Asik. That sort of depth and versatility is a hallmark of this Bulls side that finished with the NBA’s best overall record. Defensive specialist Thibodeau also would seem to have the proper elixir for Indiana high scorer Danny Granger in lengthy stopper Luol Deng.
About the only mystery we have regarding the Bulls is that there are eight newcomers among the top twelve players in the rotation. Only Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah were around for both of the last two postseason first-round exits, vs. the Celtics and Cavaliers. It’s a new adventure for this bunch. But Rose is now MVP caliber, and Noah has been joined by Carlos Boozer up front. The Bulls will have greater challenges in the postseason...not here. Prediction: Bulls in Four
Philadelphia (7) vs. Miami (2)... The Sixers aren’t exactly hitting the postseason in overdrive. Philly enters this series having lost five of its last six SU and failing to cover the spread in any of those games. Doug Collins’ team is also “under” in each of those six games, and didn’t exceed the 100-point mark in any of them. This downturn has roughly coincided with the absence of sparkplug Lou Williams (13.7 ppg), whose hamstring problems have kept him out for the past couple of weeks and could also sideline him for at least the early games of this series. The Sixers’ injury list also includes Andre Iguodala (knee), although he is expected to be available for the Saturday opener.
Of course, all eyes are going to be on the Heat, who endured plenty of bumps along the way with their high-priced, new-look lineup but are entering the postseason with plenty of momentum, winning 15 of their last 18. Erik Spoelstra believes that he has finally arrived at the proper starting combination, with recently-added G Mike Bibby and C Zydrunas Ilgauskas now joining the Big Three of LeBron, D-Wade, and Bosh.
A full-strength Philly, with its balance and depth, might have made this an interesting matchup, but we doubt the Sixers put up much fight, especially considering the three regular-season games were quite similar, all Miami wins by nearly-identical scores (97-87, 99-90, and 111-99). Wade (31 ppg vs. Sixers), in particular, was difficult for Philly to control. We’ll find out the real returns on Miami’s offseason investments later this spring. Prediction: Heat in Five
New York (6) vs. Boston (3)... An old rivalry with a new twist, as the trade deadline acquisitions of Carmelo Anthony and Chauncey Billups if nothing else provided a new look for the Knicks. Whether it is a better look remains open to some debate, but New York did put together a 7-game late-season win streak before losing a couple of meaningless games to the Bulls and Celtics before the playoffs began.
Still, this matchup looks daunting for the Knicks, who lost all four this season vs. Boston (although the regulars sat out the clash on Wednesday night). In the only meeting featuring Carmelo, the Celtics rallied from a 14-point deficit at MSG on March 21 when allowing only 35 points in the second half of an eventual 96-86 win. And therein was an illustration of the stark differences between these teams on the defensive end. Where the Knicks might be able to mitigate some of the damage is on the boards, but all oars must be in the water.
Boston, however, appears vulnerable, especially with chemistry lacking after Kendrick Perkins’ trade at the deadline to Oklahoma City. The Celtics are sub-.500 since dealing away their popular frontliner. The middle, once considered a strength for Boston, is now a question with Shaq (now suffering from a calf strain) rarely able to get on the court these days, and the other big O’Neal, Jermaine, also in and out of the lineup and now hampered by ankle problems. Meanwhile, K-G is playing on chronically sore knees. Elsewhere, Paul Pierce endured a scoring slump in the past month. Increasingly, Rajon Rondo is the man for the Celtics, but they have been unreliable home favorites since last season (just 30-49 in role). Regardless what happened in the regular season, we suspect that the Knicks might make this one interesting. Prediction: Celtics in Seven
Atlanta (5) vs. Orlando (4)... It was just two years ago that Orlando overwhelmed Atlanta in a four-game first-round sweep, and the Magic did the sweep again last year’s East semis, but the Hawks fared a bit better in the series this campaign, taking three of four meetings in the regular season. In truth, however, neither of these sides looks capable of a deep postseason run, especially the Hawks, who hit the postseason headed in reverse by losing their last six games (and last five vs. the number). It was Atlanta’s longest losing streak of the year, although HC Larry Drew purposely seemed to low-key things in the last week.
“Totals”-wise, the Hawks enter the postseason “under” in 8 of its last 10, while Orlando has been trending “under” for a while longer (21-9-1 “under” last 31). Three of the four between these two were also “under” this season.
Interestingly, Atlanta tried a different strategy this season against Dwight Howard, who had bedeviled them in the past. By employing rugged Zaza Pachulia, whose play often borders on dirty, to get physical with Howard, the Hawks partially succeeded in frustrating big Dwight. Over the last three meetings, Howard only hit 15 of 38 from the floor, and was held to 16.7 ppg, six points below his season average. Jason Collins also provides Atlanta with more size against Howard than in past years. And when on defense, Howard was often tasked with guarding Al Horford, whose ability to float away from the bucket for mid-range jump shots often pulled Howard away from the glass, making it more difficult for him to dominate the boards as usual. Adding Kirk Hinrich at the trade deadline, and getting rid of Mike Bibby, also improved the Hawks’ defensive look on the perimeter.
Mid-December additions of Hedo Turkoglu, Jason Richardson, and Gilbert Arenas failed to spark the Magic as anticipated, and Stan Van Gundy has spent much fo the past few months looking for proper lineup combination. Howard and Jameer Nelson (whose scoring has increased lately) remain the constants whose presence should ensure Orlando at least advances to the next round. Unlike the past two years, however, we doubt the Magic get any further. Prediction: Magic in Six
WEST: Memphis (8) vs. San Antonio (1)... Can the Grizzlies follow the lead of the ‘94 Nuggets, ‘99 Knicks, and ‘07 Warriors and pull another 8 over 1 upset in the first round? Maybe not, but let’s say it’s not nearly as unlikely as the Pacers knocking off the Bulls in the East. The Grizzlies have a fighting chance here.
Note that the teams split four games this season, with Memphis winning twice in March off Beale Street. Granted, Tony Parker missed the Grizzlies’ 109-93 win at FedEx Forum on March 1, but no Spurs starter (including Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili) scored in double digits that night. And Duncan missed the Grizzlies’ 111-104 win on March 27. But the Spurs might not be at 100% for this series, either, with Ginobili’s status iffy due to elbow problems (he’s already listed as doubtful for Game One).
Although bench strength allowed San Antonio to record the West’s best record this season, we suspect the Spurs are not hitting the postseason with a head of steam. Besides Ginobili’s elbow, there’s Richard Jefferson’s increasingly-disappearing act, and Father Time beginning to catch up with Duncan. The Spurs are not terribly big up front, which could prose problems vs. Zach Randolph and a Memphis lineup that scored more points in the paint (51 pg) than any team in the league. Randolph should be good to go after resting the final two regular-season games, and it was interesting to note that trade deadline addition (or re-addition, we should say) Shane Battier finally began to contribute some meaningful numbers in the last week.
The Grizzlies, who covered all four regular-season meetings vs. San Antonio, were one of the league’s best spread values this campaign and were particularly good as a road underdog (22-9). This is not going to be an easy test for the Spurs. Prediction: Spurs in Seven
New Orleans (7) vs. LA Lakers (2)... Oh, Lordy, did the Lakers catch a break! Things seem to break the Lake Show’s way most seasons, anyway, but drawing the David West-less Hornets was a real blessing, considering that other possible first-round foes (Denver, Portland, and Memphis) would have been more than a bit unnerving for Phil Jackson’s team, which had trouble with each of those entries in the regular season. Not so vs. New Orleans, beaten all four times this season by LA, with the Lakers covering handily in three of those and winning by a comfy 10.8 ppg margin. The Hornets also enter the playoffs cold, with their last three losses by a hefty 22 ppg.
Moreover, if the seeds hold up in the first round, the Lakers would draw whipping post Dallas instead of a dangerous Oklahoma City, which just smacked LA at Staples Center last Sunday, in the conference semis. Things are already setting up nicely for a 3-peat that many insufferable Lakers fans believe is their divine right.
This matchup is even more a blessing for Phil Jackson’s bunch considering their recent 5-game SU losing streak and 6-game spread losing skid, which may or may not have been a big deal (after all, back-to-back champ LA knows when to hit the accelerator), but this series should allow the Lakers to regain any lost momentum. The fact Andrew Bynum’s knee injury suffered on Tuesday vs. the Spurs hasn’t been deemed serious is another bit of good news for Jack Nicholson’s favorite team. Bynum might be held out of the first couple of games of the Hornets series but should be available for postseason duty sometime next week.
Many believe the Lakers will have a harder row to hoe in the postseason with an aging lineup that rarely plays in transition any longer and a bench that most believe is a notch below the last two championship editions. But New Orleans isn’t the team to derail the Lakers. LA’s size is also still going to cause problems for any playoff foes, and without West, New Orleans is at a real disadvantage vs. Pau Gasol, Lamar Odom, and Bynum (when available). Don’t expect the Lakers to sweat this one, and remember that LA has covered the opening game of its last five playoff matchups. We expect a sweep, and would be shocked if the Hornets can take this beyond five games. Prediction: Lakers in Four
Portland (3) vs. Dallas (6)... Upset alert? Perhaps. Remember, this was a tightly-contested series during the regular season with the teams splitting four games, and Portland taking the last two at the Rose Garden. Let’s see if Dallas can hold serve at home in the AA Center in Games One and Two.
A key for Portland will be the performance of Brandon Roy, who has endured an injury-plagued campaign but can still be the best sixth man in the playoffs if he up to par. The Blazers have become very scary in the two months since the trade deadline, or since Charlotte gifted Gerald Wallace to Nate McMillan’s roster. Along with LaMarcus Aldridge, who is usually at his best vs. hometown Dallas and scored a hefty 27.8 ppg against the Mavs this season, Portland enters the playoffs winning 22 of its last 32 straight up and having covered 15 of its last 22 on the board.
Meanwhile, it’s worth noting that Dallas had lost nine straight games vs. Western Conference playoff teams until its season-ending win over the Hornets. Included were both tries vs. Portland after the Blazers added Wallace. The Mavericks playoff scenario has repeated several times in recent years, with Dirk Nowitzki unable to carry the team and compensate for toughness and defense issues elsewhere on the roster. This season, the Mavs might meet their match a bit earlier than usual. Prediction: Blazers in Six
Denver (5) vs. Oklahoma City (4)...Both finished the season with a rush, and it’s too bad these two have to run into each other in the first round. It’s especially too bad for the Nuggets, who might believe Ok City is their bogey team after losing twice to the Thunder in the past ten days.
The specifics are well documented for these two. Defying conventional wisdom, Denver’s deal of Carmelo Anthony and Chauncey Billups to the Knicks for a collection of solid role players at the trade deadline proved a boon to George Karl, who finally had a lineup willing to play defense and move the ball. Denver won 18 of 25 after the trade and beat several contenders, including the Lakers on the road, along the way. Of some concern at the moment, however, is a nagging collection of injuries. Arron Afflalo and Birdman Andersen missed the recent pair of losses vs. the Thunder; Afflalo continues to nurse a sore hamstring. George Karl wishes that were his only injury concern, but it’s not; Nene (shoulder), Ty Lawson (ankle), Timofey Mozgov (ankle) and Danilo Gallinari (ankle) are also limping into the postseason. Afflalo, one of the Nuggets’ go-to guys, could be a bit rusty upon his return, and if Nene isn’t 100%, he might not be able to outrun counterpart Kendrick Perkins down the court, setting up more of a bump-and-grind game in which the Thunder might be better equipped to excel.
Perkins’ presence as a legitimate enforcer on the blocks is the main difference between a year ago for Ok City and what many believe makes the Thunder a legit title contender. Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook provide plenty of superstar flash and dash on the perimeter, but we love the role players like Perkins, frontline mate Serge Ibaka, and the lengthy Thabo Sefolosha, an effective stopper. A fully healthy Denver might be able to pull the minor upset, but the Nuggets are hurting a bit at the moment. It’s going to take a bit more to knock the dangerous Thunder out of the playoffs. Prediction: Thunder in Six