NBA quarter mark report cards: Best and worst bets
By LARRY JOSEPHSON
For those of you out there still trying to convince people this is the Clippers’ year to return to the postseason, please stop. We’re one quarter of the way done the season, so we thought this would be a perfect time to drop some cold hard NBA facts.
Here are the best and worst bets in the Association this season:
Biggest surprise team (good) San Antonio Spurs (20-3)
On Thanksgiving morning it would have been the Hornets, who started 8-0 and have since gone 7-10. But did anyone figure the window-is-closing Spurs to get off to third kind of start?
Gregg Popovich’s robots are 21-3, already have a 12-game winning streak on their resume, and amazingly 11 players are averaging double-digit minutes. It helps that Richard Jefferson, who was a semi-dog last season, has lifted his numbers across the board.
One word of caution – it’s unlikely that the Spurs can continue to shoot the 3-ball all season the way they have so far – 41 percent (which would be second-best in league history, behind only the 1996-97 Hornets).
Biggest surprise team (bad) Los Angeles Clippers (5-21)
The Raptors, Cavaliers, Hornets and Rockets have all taken backward steps but the Clippers get the nod here.
Blake Griffin is the real deal and gives the Clips 20 and 12 a game plus some badly needed panache, and Eric Gordon can play. But somehow the whole is not equal to the sum of its parts, and the anti-Lakers are on a pace to win just 16 games after going 29-53 last season.
Much of the blame is being heaped on point guard Baron Davis, who can’t quite seem to get in shape and is shooting just 15 percent from beyond the arc. Things are so bad that owner Don Sterling is heckling his own players at home games.
Best over team: Oklahoma City Thunder (17-9 O/U)
Oddsmakers had to adjust the totals of Oklahoma City games when the Thunder went over on 16 of their first 21 games, and OKC went under four straight games. Still, they were at 17-9 after Wednesday’s win over Houston.
The Thunder like to push the ball, and their frenetic Suns-like style causes them to pay a price at the other end – they’re 21st defensively in the league (allowing 101.9 points a game), and a lot of the reason is that they don’t defend the 3 very well.
But Kevin Durant’s offense more than makes up for it, and PG Russell Westbrook is averaging 23.6 PPG, up from 16.1 last season.
Best under team: New Orleans Hornets (6-19 O/U)
The worm has turned in New Orleans. Not long ago these guys were red hot and Chris Paul had stopped talking about demanding a trade. Now the league is buying the team, and there is talk of moving the franchise to Seattle if attendance doesn’t pick up in the next month. Yikes.
Oh yeah, and the team can’t score either. The defense is OK – 92.0 points per game allowed – but nine consecutive games under the total means your offense isn’t clicking.
The bottom may have been reached Monday night in Philadelphia when the Hornets shot 1 for 21 from the field in the second period. This team badly needs a third scorer in the event either Paul and David West have an off night.
Best ATS team: New York Knicks (18-7-1 ATS)
No longer a punch line, the Knicks actually are making money for their backers this season at 18-7-1 against the number. The Knicks’ recent eight-game win streak included eight covers, and while Amar'e Stoudmire gets much of the ink from the New York tabloids, don’t overlook the impact that PG Ray Felton has had.
After walking the ball up the court in Charlotte, Felton must feel like he’s been given a Get Out of Jail Free card. His scoring is up six points a game, to more than 18, and he’s eighth in the league in assists.
Be careful betting this team in the season’s second half though. Coach Mike D’Antoni has a reputation for overplaying his starters (look at Wednesday’s boxscore against the C’s) which can lead to some dead legs in the last third of the campaign.
Worst ATS team: Sacramento Kings (7-16 ATS)
The Kings are covering about once a week despite breaking even ATS last season. The offense doesn’t seem to be there for this team after it jettisoned Kevin Martin last year - they just don’t have a lot of offensive options.
The attack begins and ends with Tyreke Evans, whose scoring is down (16, from 20 last season). He’s also hobbling around with a mild case of plantar fasciitis. Coach Paul Westphal needs a player like he was in his day, but there’s no one on the roster approaching his talent.
Closing hard on the outside ATS is a surprise contender – the Lakers, who have covered only three times in the last their 12 games.
Best home bet: Philadelphia 76ers (10-3 ATS)
It took longer than many Philly fans hoped but the 76ers are a relevant team again in the Eastern Conference. Sure, they’re five games under .500 but that ain’t too shabby considering they started 3-13.
GM Ed Stefanski deserves a lot of credit for his draft selections because the kids are all right in The City of Brotherly Love. Point guard Jrue Holliday (14.0 ppg, 6.6 apg) is getting better with every game and Thaddeus Young is a matchup nightmare off the bench.
Meanwhile Elton Brand is healthy and is fitting in much better in coach Doug Collins’ offense than he did in Eddie Jordan’s, and center Spencer Hawes’ young career is being rescued thanks to a change of scenery.
Philly has covered the spread in 10 straight and 12 of its last 13. The Sixers are most lucrative on their home floor where they are 10-3 ATS in 13 games.
Worst home bet: Atlanta (3-10 ATS)
It seems like the Hawks have peaked, doesn’t it? We know that this team is good but not good enough to beat the elite teams in the league. Atlanta might be a .500 team if it played in the West – that’s how bad things are among the bottom-feeders in the East. Of course, the Hawks’ might actually have a home-court advantage if they played somewhere besides Atlanta too.
Larry Drew’s crew is just 3-10 ATS at Philips Arena and that mark would be even worse if it weren’t the Hawks’ two recent home covers.
Best road bet: Dallas Mavericks (8-1 ATS)
Like San Antonio it remains to be seen if the Mavericks can stay as dominant on the road as they have been. Only a 2-point loss at New Orleans has kept them from a 9-0 start, but part of that might be due to the fact that Dallas has played a home-heavy schedule with no road trip longer than two games (they beat both San Antonio and Oklahoma City in a 3-day span). The rubber hits the road next week when the Mavericks play at Miami and Orlando on back-to-back nights. They’ll also play most of their February games on the road.
Worst road bet: Orlando Magic (3-10 ATS)
There is no more certain bet than taking Washington’s opponent on the moneyline away time the Wizards are on the road. But we’re interested in spreads here and that’s why the Magic are getting the dishonorable nod.
Until this season, Orlando was one of the league’s most consistent road teams. The club won 25 or more away games each of the last three seasons but the trend hasn’t carried over this time around.
The Magic have won just seven of their 13 roadies but a few of those losses can be blamed on a nasty flu bug that stayed with the team for the better part of a week.