NBA Ref Producing 70 Percent Unders
By Ben Burns
Coincidence or not, NBA referee Rodney Mott is producing a profitable rate of unders. NBA referee Rodney Mott is an under machine for NBA bettors.
After Monday’s Spurs-Nets game stayed under the total, 32 of the 46 games Mott has officiated have failed to eclipse the total. That’s a 70-percent clip. He’s been especially potent in games that have over/unders between 185-194.5. Twelve of the 15 he’s called with totals in that range have stayed under.
Mott hasn’t been kind to home teams, either. The hosts are 19-27 ATS and just 24-22 straight-up when he’s on the whistle. Road teams are actually averaging more points (99.2) than the home teams (98.9) with the 53-year-old veteran calling the game.
These kinds of trends breed conspiracy theories. But, for the record, no one is accusing anyone of anything here. That’s not our place. Plus, Mott is 106-93 over/under in his last three seasons.
Certainly, he calls the game the way he sees it through his interpretation of the rules. That’s not going to change overnight. He’s called more than 540 regular-season games, but, somewhat strangely, only one playoff game, according basketball-refs.com. The site adds that Mott’s interests include “restoring vintage automobiles, technical writing and dishing out undeserved technical fouls.”
Again, we are not accusing Mott of anything more than consistently calling the game the way he sees it. But right now, his point of view is contributing to fewer points being scored in games he officiates than expected.
Other “under” refs: Ron Garretson (17-28), David Guthrie (15-25), Scott Wall (15-25), Haywoode Workman (14-24) Bill Spooner (16-25).
NBA totals bad beats
On Friday, the Hornets and Magic entered the fourth quarter needing to combine for only 33 points to eclipse the 192.5 total.
They managed 32, with David West and Chris Paul each missing free throws in the final 30 seconds. The game was tied, 91-91, with 6:33 to play. It stayed that way until West finally hit a jumper with 3:21 left, but the two teams hit just 2 of their last 11 field-goal attempts. Final score: Hornets 99, Magic 93.
On Saturday, the Mavericks and Rockets headed into the fourth quarter with Dallas leading 83-67. With the over/under at 206.5, bettors holding an under ticket were in good shape and able to withstand a 56-point explosion. Things looked even better for the Under when Dallas made only one field goal in the first four minutes of the quarter.
With 3:40 to play, the Mavs led the Rockets 95-85. That’s when the crazy crap appeared. The teams combined to score 28 points in the final 220 seconds, with Jordan Hill collecting an offensive rebound and hitting a short jumper with two second left to push the game over the total. The Rockets scored 35 points in the fourth quarter. Final score: Mavericks 106, Rockets 102.