NBA Situational Sports Betting Tips October 30-November 5, 2017
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com
Even though the NBA rudely tried to take away our livelihood for the betterment of the game, we’re still able to find good situational betting opportunities. The league has incorporated more days off, which has cut into the number of back-to-backs, threes-in-four, fours-in-six, and the like, but you can still find those important spots out there when you need to and that’s what we’re doing each week here at BangTheBook.com.
It should make for better basketball and for a better product, but there’s a chance that it still has a positive effect for us. Those back-to-backs and other compromising spots were almost always built into the line. With those spots being a little less obvious this season, perhaps we get some better line value on them. At least that’s the hope, anyway.
Here are the NBA situational betting spots for the week ending November 5:
Monday October 30
Charlotte Hornets at Memphis Grizzlies – There are quite a few teams on Monday night back-to-backs to start out the week. The Hornets are one of them, as they go from a home tilt against Orlando within the division to a standalone road game in Memphis. The Grizzlies are in the midst of a lengthy homestand, so this is clearly a much better spot for them. With Charlotte coming back home to face an upstart Eastern Conference foe in the Milwaukee Bucks, this looks like a bit of a flat spot, especially with a long road trip beginning on Friday. The Grizzlies should be a good grab in this one.
Orlando Magic at New Orleans Pelicans – The Magic are firing up a ton of three-pointers to open up the 2017-18 season. That means that we really need to look out for tired legs with them. They’ll be on a back-to-back with travel from Charlotte to New Orleans on Monday night for the third game in four nights. The Magic are also shooting well over their heads to open up the season, so the idea of impending regression will be built into the line, but it may not be built in enough with the b2b and travel. The Pelicans are in a bit of a letdown spot with the win over Cleveland, but with a day to get over it, they should be ready to go.
San Antonio Spurs at Boston Celtics – The Spurs are off to a solid start, but this will be a good test on Monday against the Celtics. San Antonio hosts Golden State on Thursday to kick off a long homestand and this is a back-to-back with travel for the third game in four nights. Gregg Popovich and Brad Stevens are thought to be two of the best coaches in the league and they’ll match wits in a spot that would appear to favor Boston, though the Celtics are still trying some different things to make up for Gordon Hayward’s production. Will that be exposed here? We’ll have to see how the Spurs come out and where this line opens.
Tuesday October 31
Phoenix Suns at Brooklyn Nets – The Suns are a hard team to figure out right now with a young roster, the Eric Bledsoe soap opera, and a new head coach. This looks like a poor spot for them on Tuesday night. Along with Saturday’s game in Portland, the Suns are on a five-game road trip. This kicks off the East Coast swing through Brooklyn, Washington, New York, and then the trip wraps up in San Antonio. The Suns play five games in seven nights beginning with this one, which should hurt their young legs, but they already don’t defend. This looks like a really solid spot to back the Nets, who embark on a long trip of their own beginning on Friday.
Detroit Pistons at Los Angeles Lakers – The Pistons play their third road game in four nights in California on Tuesday night. Detroit started the trip on Saturday night with the Clippers and then flew up to Oakland to battle the Warriors on Sunday. A day off in Los Angeles on Monday night leads into Tuesday’s tilt with the Lakers. Days off in LA can compromise a team in a hurry. The Lakers have two days off before this one. The Pistons head back home for a long homestand at their new digs on Friday. With the Pistons off to a solid start, we should have some line value on the home team here.
Wednesday November 1
Indiana Pacers at Cleveland Cavaliers – The new-look Pacers are a bit of a mystery early in the year. What we know for sure is that the Pacers have played the Cavs tough in most of their head-to-head meetings over the last few seasons. Will that be the case in this one? The Cavs are a mess to start the year. LeBron is getting his, but the old backcourt that the Cavs are relying on has already seen its fair share of injuries. Cleveland just doesn’t look right. The Cavs do have two days off prior to this one and the Pacers are in a back-to-back off of playing Sacramento on Tuesday night. We’ll likely see an inflated Cleveland number because of their ceiling, but it’s hard to see them covering big numbers right now.
Toronto Raptors at Denver Nuggets – A popular betting angle is to fade a team off of a long road trip. That is the spot for the Nuggets on Wednesday night, who return home to host the Raptors. The Raptors are on a long road trip of their own, but they haven’t had any real taxing spots on it and should be in decent shape heading into this game. This line will be a good indication of how the books are viewing both teams. Playing in the altitude is always tricky, but returning to the altitude after three games in four nights with some travel and three straight nights in New York City can be just as tricky. Toronto may be a good look here, but then playing the Nuggets on the rest of the homestand should turn a profit.
Orlando Magic at Memphis Grizzlies – The Grizzlies head for Los Angeles on Saturday to kick off a long stretch without a home game until November 15. This will be a game that they have circled for that reason. If you thought that Monday was a good spot to fade the Magic, Wednesday’s spot is even better with the fourth game in six nights and travel between all of them. The Magic head home to host Chicago on Friday in a game that looks like a win, so there may be a little bit of a peek towards the plane and heading home. Memphis is a very good look here.
Portland Trail Blazers at Utah Jazz – Standalone road games are bad. They are worse when it is the front end of a back-to-back. That’s the spot for Portland on Wednesday night. They’ll fly to Salt Lake City just to return back home and continue a stretch with a lot of home games. Portland won’t hit the NBA highway again until November 17. This looks like the penultimate flat spot of an unnecessary trip with a game in altitude against a team that has been at home for a while now. Lay it and play it with Utah.
Thursday November 2
Golden State Warriors at San Antonio Spurs – As part of the league’s new initiative to give the networks what they want, the Warriors and Spurs both come in rested for this one with two days off prior to the game. A rested Warriors team will likely draw public investment for this matchup of the Western Conference heavyweights. This is as pure of a handicap as it gets and those are rare in the NBA. You can simply look at the matchups and ignore all of the other stuff that happens in the NBA. Whatever your opinion is, play it with confidence.
Los Angeles Lakers at Portland Trail Blazers – The spot that Portland faced on Wednesday is the spot that the Lakers will face on Thursday. They don’t have as many home games coming up afterwards, but the Lakers fly to Portland for the front end of a back-to-back and then come right back home to take on Brooklyn, which marks a rare spot in which the Lakers are in good shape to beat somebody. We’ll see if Portland can keep up with the Lakers’ pace or slow them down, but this will be a really interesting spot. Normally, I’d look to go against the standalone road game, as evidenced by Wednesday, but this may be a spot to play on it. The Lakers aren’t going to be all that invested on the road more often than not, but their breakneck pace coupled with Portland playing a third game in four nights and a back-to-back off an altitude game might push me to the Los Angeles side if the number is right.
Friday November 3
Toronto Raptors at Utah Jazz – It is a busy schedule on Friday with a ton of games, but not a whole lot of great spots. The Raptors play their second straight game in altitude as they wrap up a long road trip. The upcoming homestand opens with Washington, and there’s some playoff history between those two, and then an easy win over Chicago. The Raptors don’t really punt games, but at the tail end of a trip with a really good defensive team on the ledger, it seems like a pretty poor spot for Toronto. Utah does have Houston on deck, which could create a bit of a look-ahead, but Utah is a team with significant motivation this season since some people wrote them off because of offseason losses. They’re a good bet in my opinion on Friday.
Charlotte Hornets at San Antonio Spurs – We like to think that Gregg Popovich’s teams are immune to letdowns, but this could very well be one against the Hornets. With Kawhi Leonard banged up at the start of the season and with another back-to-back in the span of six days, we may not get a full Spurs lineup. At the very least, we should get one with monitored minutes. Charlotte is looking to set the tone for what is going to be a long stretch without a home game. The Hornets go from November 1 to November 15 without a game in the Tar Heel State. This strikes me as a spot where the Hornets keep it close, if not surprise with an outright win.
New Orleans Pelicans at Dallas Mavericks – One spot that I’m not sure how to read is the standalone home game. Dallas plays on the road in Utah and Los Angeles on Monday and Wednesday and then returns home briefly to play New Orleans on Friday. It is the front end of a back-to-back for the Pelicans, but the next game is in Chicago, so that doesn’t concern me. The Mavericks aren’t that great of a team. With Minnesota, Washington, Cleveland, Oklahoma City, San Antonio, Minnesota, and Milwaukee on the upcoming schedule, it’s hard to see wins. This might be the best chance for a while at grabbing one. Maybe that is a motivating factor.
Miami Heat at Denver Nuggets – The Heat start off a road trip, a very long one at that, on Friday night against the Nuggets. This is the first of six straight away from South Beach, so Erik Spoelstra will want his club to set the right mindset. Denver plays Golden State at home the next night, so this is a massive look-ahead spot for the host squad. Perception of Denver is pretty high out in the market, despite some of their early-season inconsistencies. I think this is a spot to take the inflated line value on the altitude and the perception. Miami should be competitive here.
Saturday November 4
Golden State Warriors at Denver Nuggets – The Nuggets franchise desperately wants to take that next step. Beating the Warriors would send some pretty positive signals from top to bottom and that is the chance that Denver has on Saturday. If Friday goes as mentioned, the Nuggets will be looking to put together a better 48-minute performance. It’s easier said than done against the Warriors, but with Golden State working its way back home after facing the Clippers and Spurs, this does feel like an okay spot to back the home dog.
Sacramento Kings at Detroit Pistons – This is an outstanding spot to back the Pistons and probably the best situational spot of the week. The Pistons will get that first home game back off a long trip out of their system on Friday against the Bucks. Sacramento will be wrapping up a three-city trip to Indianapolis, Boston, and Detroit. The Kings will have two days off in Detroit, which is not overly exciting, before playing this game. They’ll head home for two days off before playing Oklahoma City. This feels like a spot where the Kings play extremely flat and the Pistons come to play. I’d definitely look to back the home team here and the number should be pretty reasonable.
Sunday November 5
Phoenix Suns at San Antonio Spurs – This should be a hard line to set. The Suns want to run and run and run. The Spurs almost always control the pace in their games and their efficiency is the reason why they have been one of the best teams in the league for so long. Phoenix is anything but efficient, especially on the defensive end. These types of games set up in a way where we expect the better team to show it by dictating the game flow and by being the more efficient bunch. But, for San Antonio, with Golden State on Thursday, a possible flat spot on Friday, and the Clippers on Tuesday, how much are they invested in slapping down a team trying to make a name? I’m not entirely sure. The only thing I know for sure is that this will be a big number. Whether or not the Spurs are invested in covering it is a challenging thing to figure out. This is a Suns team playing its fourth game in six nights.
Memphis Grizzlies at Los Angeles Lakers – The Grizzlies start their LA road trip with a day off in Hollywood on Friday night. Then they play the Clippers. They’ll play a back-to-back in the same venue with a matchup against the Lakers on Sunday. This feels like a good spot to back the Grizzlies. It’s hard to get in trouble with a late game and then another game the next day. The team may have a hangover effect on Saturday, but it should be back to business on Sunday. With the Lakers off a beatable opponent in Brooklyn, laying the road price is the preferred option based on the spot.
Atlanta Hawks at Cleveland Cavaliers – Very little is expected from the Hawks this season, but that shouldn’t stop the team from giving a good effort in Cleveland on Sunday. This is the front end of a back-to-back and a standalone road game, but with the way the Cavs are playing, it doesn’t seem like a death march for a team in this spot. The Cavs can’t separate from anybody. The Hawks play Houston, Cleveland, and Boston on a three games in four nights stretch Friday-Monday, and this may end up being a flat spot, but I think they show up as a big dog here.
NBA Betting Roadmap, Week 3
By Al McMordie
Unlike past seasons, where the NBA's best teams have burst out of the gate like supernovas, the league's top squads have been stumbling and bumbling this year. The Warriors, Rockets, Spurs, Thunder and Cavaliers are widely considered to be the most talented teams. Yet, in the aggregate, they are 19-14 straight-up, and 11-22 against the spread this season. And none of them is above .500 ATS! On Sunday, the Spurs (-6.5), Cavaliers (-10.5) and Warriors (-14.5) all lost outright as big favorites. Golden State's loss to Detroit was particularly stunning, as it was the first time (in 51 games) in the Steph Curry Era that the Warriors lost at home when favored by more than 14 points! Let's take a look at the upcoming week.
Spread Watch
We're two weeks into the NBA season, and the league's two best records belong to the Memphis Grizzlies (5-1) and Detroit Pistons (5-2). Detroit also owns the best pointspread mark, as it is 6-1 ATS, including back-to-back upset wins on the weekend over the Clippers and Warriors. And Detroit was installed as an underdog of +8.5 and +14.5 in those two games! This week, the Pistons will finish their West Coast road trip with a game against Lonzo Ball's Lakers at Staples Center, on Tuesday, before returning home to face the Bucks and Kings. Their game at Los Angeles looks like a prime spot to fade the Pistons, especially given that the Lakers will enter that game off blowout losses to the Raptors and Jazz. And NBA teams, like Detroit, off back to back upset wins as an underdog of +8 or more points, are a poor 22-41-1 ATS since 1990, including 1-11 ATS vs. foes off back-to-back SU/ATS losses. Consider taking the Lakers on Tuesday.
Total Watch
Last week, 33 of the 50 NBA games played went 'under' the total. And the team which has played the most 'unders' this season is, perhaps, the team one would least likely suspect: Mike D'Antoni's Houston Rockets. Houston's 6-1 'under' for the season, and is currently on a 6-game 'under' streak, while it held those six foes to an average of 98.1 ppg. Indeed, only Houston's season-opening game against the league's other high-octane offense -- the Warriors -- went 'over' the total. Of course, it's true that Houston added defensive-minded free agents Luc Mbah A Moute and PJ Tucker (though it lost Patrick Beverley). But I don't believe that the Rockets, after ranking #18 in adjusted defensive efficiency last season, have morphed into an above-average defensive team. Instead, I think Houston's relatively low-scoring games have much more to do with the nature of their opponents. Indeed, the Rockets' last six games were against five teams that all currently rank in the bottom half of adjusted offensive efficiency (Sacramento (#25), Dallas (#17), Memphis (#21), Philadelphia (#19) and Charlotte (#27))! This week, Houston will once again take on Philadelphia, at home, on Monday, before taking on the Knicks, Hawks and Jazz. Of those teams, only the Knicks currently rank in the upper half of adjusted offensive efficiency. And I think it's a great spot to take the 'over,' as four of the last five meetings have sailed 'over' the number, including the most recent meeting -- a 129-122 Houston victory last December.
Injury Watch
The San Antonio Spurs' MVP candidate, Kawhi Leonard, remains out indefinitely with a quadriceps injury, and his absence is beginning to have a deleterious effect. San Antonio has lost its last two games -- to Orlando and Indiana -- and scored just 87 and 94 points in those defeats. The loss to the Magic was a blowout from the get-go, which happens. But San Antonio never should have lost to Indiana. The Spurs were actually up on the Pacers by nine points with 6:35 left, yet collapsed. If Leonard was on the court, it would not have happened. Last season, Leonard averaged 25.5 ppg, and his usage rate was 31.1%. And coach Gregg Popovich routinely called his number when the Spurs needed a bucket late in a game. This season, however, the Spurs just don't have enough reliable offensive weapons, and they rank a horrid 23rd in adjusted offensive efficiency. This week, the Spurs will be underdogs for the first time this season when they face Boston, on Monday, and Golden State, on Thursday. (Last season, the Spurs were 5-1-1 ATS as an underdog in the regular season.) Then, they'll finish up the week as "chalk" with winnable games vs. the Hornets and Suns. It's possible that Leonard could return later this week, but until he does, the Spurs are a team to avoid at the betting window when they're laying points.
Schedule Watch
When I handicap NBA games, I try to look for certain events that might trigger an opportunity to bet on or against a team. One of my favorite such events is when a team pulls off an upset, as they often have a letdown in their subsequent game. This season, NBA teams have gone just 9-18 ATS off an upset win. But that's not the best part. If our team coming off an upset win owned a W/L percentage of .500 or better, then our 9-18 ATS season record moves to 3-18 ATS, including 0-11 ATS vs. opponents with a losing record. This week, we currently have three games that fall into this angle. On Monday, the Timberwolves are favored at Miami following the T-Wolves' upset win over the Thunder. Then, on Tuesday, the Pacers, off their upset of the Spurs, will host the Kings, while Detroit will try to follow up its shocking win over the Warriors with a victory against the Lakers. Of these, I feel the two best games to play are the ones on Tuesday, and I'll take the Kings and Lakers.