NBA Southeast Division Betting Preview
By Power Sports
Covers.com
Atlanta Hawks (2015-16: 48-34 SU, 42-39-1 ATS)
Odds to Win the Division: +180
Season Win Total: 43.5
Why to Bet On The Hawks: Almost by default, the Hawks are your de facto favorites in the Southeast. They have made the playoffs nine years in a row. This team ranked second in the league in defensive efficiency last season and is adding Dwight Howard to the fold, though that may no longer mean what it once did. Dennis Schroeder may be set to take the next step. Only Cleveland and Toronto had better point differentials last season among Eastern Conference teams. They have to improve upon an 0-5 SU record in overtime games, right?
Why Not to Bet On The Hawks: While the Hawks always make the playoffs, they typically don’t do much when the get there. Even with Howard, this incarnation doesn’t look as strong as the last two years. They lost both Al Horford and Jeff Teague. Other than Howard and Schroeder, the other three starters are all on the wrong side of 30.
Season Win Total Pick: Under 43.5
Charlotte Hornets (2015-16: 48-34 SU, 42-39-1 ATS)
Odds to Win the Division: +275
Season Win Total: 42.5
Why to bet the Hornets: Coming off a 48-win campaign, it appears as if the Hornets are being undervalued a bit. This team ranked in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency last year. Keep in mind that they did without Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, who is back and (presumably) healthy. Kemba Walker is off a career year where he averaged 20.9 points per game. This team was 30-11 SU last year at home.
Why not to bet the Hornets: While Kidd-Gilchrist is back and that should help the defense, the departures of Al Jefferson, Jeremy Lin and Courtney Lee will hamper the offense. You know how I said Atlanta is likely to improve upon its 0-fer last year in overtime games? Well, the Hornets went 5-0 SU when games when to extra time in 2015-16. They’ll certainly regress in that department.
Season Win Total: Over 42.5
Miami Heat (2015-16: 48-34 SU, 43-38-1 ATS)
Odds to Win the Division: +900
Season Win Total: 34.5
Why to bet the Heat: With the mass exodus of talent, there’s a chance that the oddsmakers are undervaluing them. You won’t find another team being projected to regress more. This is a 13.5-win decline from last year. The team projected to decline the most last season (Portland) easily eclipsed its projection. There is some good young talent on hand, namely Hassan Whiteside, Justise Winslow and Josh Richardson.
Why not to bet the Heat: This isn’t Portland and the drop in talent is very real. Not only are “The Big Three” (LeBron, Wade, Bosh) all gone, so too is Luol Deng and Joe Johnson. There is a very real chance Pat Riley and the front office will elect to tank and do a total teardown. That means trading Goran Dragic. This team was only seventh in point differential last year (in the East) to begin with. A decline is all but assured; it’s only a question of how much.
Season Win Total Pick: Over 34.5
Orlando Magic (2015-16: 35-47 SU, 45-36-1 ATS)
Odds to Win the Division: +900
Season Win Total: 37.5
Why to bet the Magic: Frank Vogel’s team should be sound defensively. They brought in Serge Ibaka and Bismack Biyombo, thus should certainly crack the top half in the league in terms of defensive efficiency (17th last year). Aaron Gordon might be a year away from being a superstar. The Magic actually finished with the best ATS record in the Eastern Conference last year, so clearly they were undervalued when getting points.
Why not to bet the Magic: Offensively, they are likely to struggle. Ibaka and Biyombo aren’t likely to help much at the end of the floor and I question how much free agents DJ Augustin and Jeff Green will as well. It will be tough to duplicate last year’s ATS record as oddsmakers are likely to respect them a bit more. They were 14-39 SU vs. .500 or better teams. Though they’ve improved each season, it’s been four straight last place finishes and no more than 35 wins in any season.
Season Win Total Bet: Under 37.5
Washington Wizards: (2015-16: 41-41 SU, 43-37-2 ATS)
Odds to Win the Division: +220
Season Win Total: 42.5
Why to bet the Wizards: The backcourt combination of John Wall and Bradley Beal just might make this the best team in the Southeast. Adding Markief Morris at the trade deadline led to a strong 18-13 SU finish.
Why not to bet the Wizards: Remember how the Wizards were supposed to make a run at Kevin Durant? They totally whiffed in free agency. Beal has never played more than 65 games in a season. I’m never enthralled with the idea of endorsing a Scott Brooks coached team too strongly.
Season Win Total: Over 42.5