NBA Southwest Division Betting Preview
By Steve Merril
Covers.com
Dallas Mavericks (2015-16: 42-40 SU, 45-36-1 ATS)
Odds to Win the Division: +2200
Season Win Total: 38.5
Why to bet on the Mavericks: Save for one season (2012-13), the Mavs have made the playoffs every year this century. They still have Dirk Nowitzki and Rick Carlisle is one of the league’s better coaches. They added Harrison Barnes and Andrew Bogut in the offseason. Seth Curry (brother of Steph) could be an underrated acquisition. The last time this team finished with fewer than 40 wins in a non-lockout year was 1997-98. The bar is low and the depth in the West isn’t what it once was.
Why not to bet the Mavericks: I thought they grossly overpaid for Barnes. Barnes coming in to replace the departed Chandler Parsons is not a value add. The nucleus is old with Nowitzki now 38. They were outscored last season. I absolutely see this as a team in decline.
Season Win Total Pick: Under 38.5
Houston Rockets (2015-16: 41-41 SU, 37-45 ATS)
Odds to Win the Division: +900
Season Win Total: 44.0
Why to bet the Rockets: Last season should be considered somewhat of a “worst-case scenario.” I can’t see them being worse this year. This was the best ATS team in the league two years ago, so look for them to bounce back at the betting window as well. James Harden leads one of the five best offenses in the league. Mike D’Antoni was a good hire given the make-up of this team and they added both Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon.
Why not to bet the Rockets: As good as they are offensively, the Rockets stink defensively. D’Antoni’s arrival doesn’t figure to help in that department nor does Dwight Howard leaving. Among playoff teams, Houston was tied with Portland for last in defensive efficiency. As disappointing as Howard was here, his interior presence will be missed.
Season Win Total: Over 44.0
Memphis Grizzlies (2015-16: 42-40 SU, 42-39-1 ATS)
Odds to Win the Division: +1100
Season Win Total: 42.5
Why to bet the Grizzlies: They can’t possibly be as injured as they were last season, right? Incredibly, 28 different players suited up for the Grizz last season, which was a single season NBA record. It was a huge money deal, but PG Mike Conley was retained. Also, the team was able to nab Chandler Parsons away from Dallas. This has been a playoff team for each of the last six seasons.
Why not to bet the Grizzlies: Outscored by nearly three points per 100 possessions last year, the team finished well “in the red” in terms of point differential (-2.2 per game), which was worst among all playoff teams. Their gap between actual and expected wins was the largest in the entire league. They were fortunate to go 8-3 SU in games decided by three points or less. One player’s health that they should not count on is Marc Gasol, who has missed 20+ games each of the last two seasons. Zach Randolph, believe it or not, is now 35. There’s not much depth on the bench. New head coach David Fizdale is a bit of a question mark.
Season Win Total Pick: Under 42.5 (love this one!)
New Orleans Pelicans (2015-16: 30-52 SU, 36-46 ATS)
Odds to Win the Division: +2800
Season Win Total: 37.0
Why to bet the Pelicans: They have Anthony Davis, who was hailed as a top five player going into last season. Davis missed 21 games a year ago while posting the worst field goal percentage of his young career. Look for a bounce back season from him and the team, which won 45 games two seasons ago and made the playoffs. Rookie Buddy Hield has looked good in the preseason. I have the Pelicans getting back to the postseason this year as the eight seed. They should improve upon last year’s dismal ATS mark.
Why not to bet the Pelicans: It remains to be seen if Davis can play close to a full 82-game season. He has missed at least 14 games every year in his pro career and has already suffered a Grade 2 sprained ankle. Other than him, not a lot jumps out at you on this roster. Jrue Holliday and Tyreke Evans, two other starters, are also likely to miss the season opener. The Pelicans ranked 28th in defensive efficiency last season, which was tied to Davis missing so many games.
Season Win Total Bet: Over 37.0
San Antonio Spurs: (2015-16: 67-15 SU, 44-38 ATS, 35-45-2 O/U)
Odds to Win the Division: -750
Season Win Total: 56.5
Why to bet the Spurs: Because they are the Spurs. As you can see they are the overwhelming favorite to take the division and I’d also consider them a lock to finish No. 2 in the West behind Golden State. Even with high pointspreads, this team finished “in the black” ATS. They allowed – by far – the fewest points per game in the league (92.9) and have a Hall of Fame coach. Pau Gasol, one of three players in the league to average at least 15 points and 10 rebounds each of the last two seasons, has come aboard.
Why not to bet the Spurs: At some point, the team will decline. It’s the end of an era with Tim Duncan having retired. Boris Diaw, David West and Boban Marjanovic also left. The gap between them and the Warriors will be much larger than it was last year.
Season Win Total: Over 56.5