NBA West Conference Odds Update
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com
With Houston adding Chris Paul via trade before free agency even began, Paul George landing in Oklahoma City and Jimmy Butler getting dealt to Minnesota, the betting landscape already looks dramatically different than it did when opening Western Conference odds were posted by the Westgate Superbook on June 24.
Golden State is now 2-to-7 (-350) to win the Western Conference after being available last week at 1-to-4 (-400). The number is the lowest yet after spending July's first few weeks at (-450) following a 1-to-5 (-500) opening number. Clearly none of those odds are desirable, but it's worth noting that the collective strength of the West has chiseled away on only a little of the superteam's perceived advantage.
The projected win total for the Warriors has been placed at 66.5 after last year's 67-15 finish despite losing Kevin Durant for a few months. The defending champs are 5-to-11 (-220) to repeat by winning it all after opening at 5-to-8 (-160).
San Antonio is in at 9-to-2 (+450) as the team most likely to dethrone Golden State, up significant from the +700 where it resided last week. Houston moved all the way back from 8-to-1 (+800) to the 15-to-1 (+1500) it opened at before they traded for Paul. Considering the number on Houston had been at 10-to-1 (+1000) for much of July's first few weeks.
If you believe the Warriors are going to slip, banking on the Rockets may never be more lucrative than the present given the rumors that they're hoping to land Carmelo Anthony from New York. Although Melo's national reputation has slipped due to the Knicks' ineptitude and his own stagnation as a player, he's still an elite scorer and matchup nightmare who would improve Houston's chances of competing with Golden State.
If Anthony joins the Rockets, I'd anticipate that those numbers would return back inside a 10-to-1 payout.
Houston general manager Daryl Morey has labeled competing with the Warriors as an "arms race," so the likelihood that there's another move coming, whether they wind up with Anthony or not, make this team one worth getting behind if you dare fade the defending champs.
Although there should be an urgency to land the biggest windfall, the conundrum is that you won't really know what you're getting for months.
It will be interesting to see how the on-court product influences the odds, especially if Anthony enters the mix, since James Harden will have to find a way to play share responsibilities with Paul as it is. Mike D'Antoni, who has cited Melo's inability to adhere to his system as a major reason he was let go in New York, would have to find a way to maximize his strengths while avoiding the iso-ball that Anthony prefers.
There may be significant growing pains that could push Houston back into the generous +1500 range where its odds currently reside, but injuries aside, don't write off D'Antoni figuring things out for this group by the time the postseason arrives. Just the fact they should have a fresher Harden makes it likely that this new version will be much improved over the one that was so casually tossed aside by San Antonio in the Western Conference semis.
The number on the Spurs didn't budge from 7-to-1 (+700) for most of the month after opening at 13-to-2 (+650). That speaks volumes given the uncertainty regarding LaMarcus Aldridge since the team has actively shopped him. Pau Gasol will return, but after losing out on Paul, not to mention watching Jonathon Simmons leave for Orlando via free agency, they haven't improved. Danny Green is also said to be available, Manu Ginobili will return after contemplating retirement, but no new reason to get behind this group has come aboard. Kawhi Leonard did have his team headed to a Game 1 win in Oakland before Zaza Pachulia's dirty close out derailed his efforts, but he'll need more help to remain Golden State's top threat.
The two biggest risers since the initial odds were released are the franchises that landed George and Butler as reinforcements.
Oklahoma City moved from 40-to-1 (+4000) to 15-to-1 (+1500) after acquiring PG-13 and should also feature an improved roster going forward. Sports Illustrated had a great nugget that fantastic Thunder GM Sam Presti handed out McGyver cards to encourage his team to think extravagantly and creatively in assembling their offseason plan. Keeping reigning MVP Russell Westbrook long-term is the next major endeavor, but with stopper Andre Roberson also locked up and a pair of 7-footers entering their prime in Steven Adams and Enes Kanter, the Thunder are a contender due to their abiity lock in defensively. If they find a consistent third scoring option alongside Westbrook and George every night, they'll be a factor and are also unlikely to pay off as lucratively as they can if you buy in early.
Minnesota opened at 30-to-1 (+3000) but has been sitting at 20-to-1 (+2000) since reuniting Butler with head coach Tom Thibodeau. The Timberwolves have also added point guard Jeff Teague and elite sixth man Jamal Crawford, so they''re poised to make a significant leap after stumbling to a 31-51 finish last season. The natural progression of Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins will certainly yield improvement, but Minny's lack of postseason experience makes it hard to get behind a deep run. Still, the prop Westgate has out there regarding their ability to crack the top-eight and reach the playoffs for the first time since 2004 tells you how high they are on them. The Wolves are a 1-to-8 (-800) favorite to break through, with a payout of +550 if they fail.
The L.A. Lakers and Utah opened at 50-to-1 (+5000) to win the West and each took steps back according to oddsmakers.
Coming up empty on the George sweepstakes means this will be a season where the Lakers look to compete by cultivating their great young talent, but they'll be competing for a playoff spot at best and just as likely to be avoiding 50 losses in the compeitive conference. They're at 150-to-1 (+15000) now but will remain fun to watch if Lonzo Ball's Summer League showing is any indication.
Even though the kids ran the show in Vegas, L.A. is -1100 (1-to-11) to miss the playoffs. Many Lakers fans figure to get down on +700 (7-to-1) given that the buzz is back, but there are 11 teams ahead of them on the pecking order, including the Clippers, Grizzlies and Jazz.
Losing Gordon Hayward to Boston moved Utah to 100-to-1 (+10000) from the +5000 where it opened. My knee-jerk reaction is that's a little harsh since they're still likely to be in the mix with the L.A. Clippers Portland, New Orleans and Denver who all remained at 50-to-1. Although they lost Hayward and George Hill, newly acquired Ricky Rubio and rookie Donovan Mitchell should help Rodney Hood, Joe Johnson and Joe Ingles replace the departed production along the perimeter. Promising former lottery pick Dante Exum should be a factor in the rotation, while game-changing center Rudy Gobert is likely to get more help up front from Derrick Favors.
Sacramento and Phoenix are expected to bring up the rear in the West with 250-to-1 odds to win the conference and 500-to-1 championship odds.