NBA Western Conference Playoff Series Picks
By ASHTON GREWAL
Most people say you don't need to pay attention to the NBA playoffs until the second or third round. And while that may be the case in the East, it's far from the truth in the wild, wild Western Conference.
Here's how things will shake out in the Round 1:
Los Angeles Lakers (-700) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (+525)
Oklahoma City is a young, exciting team that possesses some matchup advantages against the defending champs. Thunder guard Thabo Sefolosha is the best perimeter defender in the league and he will make things difficult for Kobe Bryant.
The Thunder’s offense struggles sometimes when opponents cheat over to Kevin Durant’s side and deny him the ball. Ron Artest isn’t the defensive force he once was but he’ll still make KD work for every shot.
Oklahoma City’s real advantage comes at the point. The Thunder will extend this series if Russell Westbrook eats up Derek Fisher. Westbrook will have to keep his cool because Fisher will get the benefit of the doubt on most block/charge calls.
As bad as the Lakers looked over the last few months, they’re just too talented and have too much experience to lose in the first round.
Prediction: Lakers in six
Dallas Mavericks (-165) vs. San Antonio Spurs (+145)
Don’t let the seedings fool you, this series is a coin toss.
The Mavericks are deep and have won tight games all season. They’ve got scoring options at four out of five spots in the starting lineup and they can field a wide variety of lineup combos to best disrupt their opponent’s strengths.
Still, the Spurs are playing great basketball and are healthy heading into the postseason. Dallas has no shot of winning this series if Manu Ginobili plays as well as he has been down the stretch. The return of Tony Parker will take the ball out of Manu’s hands to some degree, which could actually help out the Mavs.
The Spurs are a tougher team. They’ve been though more rough patches this season and have preserved. Plus they’ve got the best coach in the league.
Pick: Spurs in seven
Phoenix Suns (-520) vs. Portland Trail Blazers (+430)
Brandon Roy is a fantastic player and he won’t be replaced easily. Even if he tries to play on that wonky knee, you have to figure his production will be way down.
The Blazers have depth at Roy’s position but the two likely candidates to fill in for the All-Star’s have their own shortcomings.
Rudy Fernandez is a creative player who can attack the rack but he chooses to stand behind the arc and chuck 3s all game, while Jerryd Bayless is more interested in playing one-on-one than swinging the ball to an open teammate.
Don’t sleep on Phoenix either. Sure, it has its usual defensive issues. But if you’re going to beat the Suns, you’ve got to put up triple digits every night. If Jason Richardson is aggressive and looks for his shot, Phoenix will make short work of the injury-ravaged Blazers.
Pick: Phoenix in five
Denver Nuggets (-170) vs. Utah Jazz (+150)
If you’d have asked me two months ago who the Lakers’ No. 1 threat in the West was, I would have picked the Nuggets. A lot has changed since then.
George Karl isn’t on the sidelines, J.R. Smith is now forcing shots with three defenders on him rather than just two and Kenyon Martin is more worried about the interior of his luxury SUV than playing for his teammates in the postseason.
The Jazz are a different beast. No point guard in the league is playing better than Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer is motivated heading into free agency. I think the Jazz will win all the hustle categories and squeak past the Nuggets.
Pick: Jazz in six