NCAA Betting Trends: Shockers going 'over'
By: Willie Bee
Transitioning from early-season play to conference action on the college basketball schedule can be a tricky one for bettors who primarily use trends and stats for their handicapping tools. The mismatches and neutral site matchups seen in November and December give way to conference rivalries and intensely hostile locales, often making for a whole new ballgame.
It's also a transition for oddsmakers who are already adjusting their numbers for conference play, especially when it comes to totals which were slower to come out the first two months, if they were set at all.
South Dakota State (10-4 straight up, 6-3 against the spread) already has three Summit League games under its belt and is still sporting a perfect 7-0 mark to the 'over.' The Jackrabbits rank 20th in scoring offense with an 80.6 per game average, led by sophomore Nate Wolters' 19.2 tally. The team is hitting over 41 percent from long range.
Those who love high-scoring battles will want to circle a pair of dates on the calendar. Oakland, who stunned Tennessee in Knoxville in mid-December, visits the Jackrabbits on Jan. 20 with a return match at the Golden Grizzlies' gym Feb. 19. The Grizzlies are off to a 4-0 start in conference play, 14th in the country averaging 81.6 points per game and 7-2 to the high side of game totals.
Princeton is still an 'over' bettor's friend with an 8-2 record that direction. However, that is after an 8-0 start jumping the total and the Tigers face a long layoff now following their 68-57 win versus Marist on Wednesday night. Princeton next hits the court on Jan. 23 when it hosts The College of New Jersey before beginning Ivy League play.
Three Big East schools are trending 'over' currently, led by Providence's 8-2 mark. West Virginia and Pitt check in with 7-2 records.
One team to keep an eye on is Wichita State, a top mid-major and off to a 12-2 start overall (5-4 ATS). The Shockers have begun Missouri Valley play with three wins, all covers and all 'overs.' Gregg Marshall's men are 7-2 'over' on the campaign, with six straight finishing above the total.
Peacocks lead 'under' charge
St. Peter's remains the only school to stay 'under' the total all season among teams with at least five lined games. The Peacocks are a perfect 6-0 to the low side thanks to defense and their own poor shooting. John Dunne's squad has managed to convert less than 39 percent of its shots, and a 55.3 scoring average ranks 343rd in the country, fourth from the bottom for those counting.
Despite the scoring outage, St. Peter's is off to a 3-0 start in Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference play.
Western Carolina and Seton Hall are each 9-1 'under' for a nice early profit if you've been playing their games that way. The Catamounts and Pirates share a few other common stats, including losing records straight up and against the spread. Western Carolina and Seton Hall are scoring 67.3 and 67.9 points per game respectively, and hitting 40.8/40.4 percent of their field goals.
Cashing the most 'under' tickets to date is Illinois State who stands 10-2 to the low side. The Redbirds have seen their scoring drop by a good chunk in early Missouri Valley play, averaging just over 60 per game in three contests with their season mark at 63.8 points. All three games ended in Illinois State losses. It will make for an interesting line set Friday night when the Redbirds host David Kyles and Wichita State.
Weekend action on tap
The NFL playoffs are the shiny object on the weekend sports betting slate, but college basketball bettors also have a nice list of games to check out. Two of Saturday's games on the Don Best preview list are the Big 12 clash between Kansas State and Oklahoma State plus the big interconference tilt in Austin where UConn visits the Texas Longhorns.
St. John's also puts its surprising 3-0 Big East record on the line Saturday evening when the Red Storm trek to South Bend to meet Notre Dame who is 2-1 in conference play.
Sunday's schedule finds the top-ranked Duke Blue Devils hosting Maryland. Two matchups pitting ranked conference opponents are No. 21 Minnesota at No. 2 Ohio State and No. 25 Cincinnati traveling to No. 7 Villanova. The day is headlined by a Big 12, Big Ten battle in Ann Arbor where the Michigan Wolverines will entertain the No. 3 Kansas Jayhawks.