NCAA Bracket Analysis
By Brian Edwards
Another Selection Sunday has prompted yet another Bracket Analysis column, probably my favorite of each year. Let’s start by informing you of the No. 1 seeds – Kansas, Kentucky, Duke and Syracuse.
In a season in which so many big-time programs like North Carolina, Indiana, UCLA, Arizona and Oklahoma endured down years, we still have four of the country’s most storied college basketball programs as our No. 1 seeds.
Kansas spent most of the regular season as the nation’s top-ranked team and the committee rewarded it with the NCAA Tournament’s No. 1 overall seed. The Jayhawks, who beat Kansas St. to win the Big 12 Tournament, will face Lehigh in the first round. Remember, a No. 16 seed has never beaten a top seed in NCAA Tourney history.
Assuming it advances, KU would face the No. Iowa-UNLV winner for the right to go to the Sweet 16. Potential foes for Bill Self’s squad in the region semifinals include Michigan State and Maryland. Of course, the Spartans were last year’s runners-up and they have one of the premier coaches in NCAA Tourney history in Tom Izzo. Maryland is another dangerous team with veteran guards that could give KU issues.
If form holds and the top seeds advance to the Midwest Region finals, we would have Kansas colliding with Ohio St. in the Elite Eight. If I’m Bill Self, I certainly would’ve preferred facing a No. 2 seed like Villanova or Kansas St. rather than Ohio St. (or West Va.).
To further demonstrate how the committee seemingly didn’t do KU many favors for being the “No. 1 overall seed,” you only need to look at Syracuse’s draw. I feel like the ‘Cuse has the easiest path to the Final Four in Indianapolis. The Orange will start its march to Indy by taking on Vermont, which won’t have T.J. Sorrentine around like in 2005. Taylor Coppenrath won’t be in uniform for the Catamounts, either.
Five years ago, Sorrentine and Coppenrath helped Vermont stun the ‘Cuse in overtime of a first-round showdown in the ‘05 Tourney. This time around, Vermont will not be able to send Jim Boeheim’s team packing.
Syracuse has way too much firepower for the Catamounts, although we should note that Jim Boeheim said on Sunday that Arinze Onuaku was “unlikely” to play in the first weekend of the tournament.
That’s great news for FSU and Gonzaga, one of whom will be waiting on the Orange. Onuaku’s absence leaves Boehim with just a six-man rotation. Foul trouble could become a major concern for Syracuse. FSU goes through too many long stretches in which it struggles to get buckets, but the ‘Noles have great size and lots of big bodies to throw at the Orange.
Nevertheless, I think Andy Rautins and Wesley Johnson get Syracuse to the West Region semifinals. At that point, the Orange might be facing a double-digit seed. That’s right, UTEP and Murray St. are very capable of getting to Salt Lake City. In a potential Elite Eight game, Syracuse would get to face the weakest No. 2 seed in my opinion, Kansas St.
Don’t get wrong, I’m not advising ‘Cuse fans to book their trip to Indy for certain. When you only have six healthy players, nothing is for certain. But I like the Orange’s draw, certainly when comparing it to that of the other top seeds.
For instance, Kentucky might have to play a team as talented as Texas as early as the second round. Now for our purposes, all savvy bettors are aware of how great the Longhorns have been to fade recently, as evidenced by their atrocious 3-17 spread record in their last 20 games.
But every team has new life in the NCAA Tournament and Texas is not the type of matchup John Calipari wanted to see this early. Dexter Pittman might be the country’s only post player that can bang with UK’s DeMarcus Cousins. If Pittman isn’t in foul trouble, Cousins won’t command the double-teams he almost always draws.
If Damion James and Avery Bradley play well, the ‘Cats could be in trouble in a potential showdown with Texas. First, however, Rick Barnes’ bunch has to get past Wake Forest.
Since I’ve been saying for weeks that Kentucky isn’t going to make it to Indy, I was quite pleased to see a tough Wisconsin club in the Wildcats’ way. The Badgers, a No. 4 seed, might face UK in the Sweet 16 at the Carrier Dome. If we see that, I’ll be giving Wisconsin a huge edge in the coaching department with Bo Ryan going up against Calipari.
Should UK get to the Elite Eight, West Virginia is a potential opponent that I would like to send the ‘Cats back to the Commonwealth, where many plane tickets to Indy will be going to waste.
Duke’s path to Indy has plenty of potholes as well. The Blue Devils might play Louisville in the second round. Without a doubt, the Cardinals can play with anyone as evidenced by a pair of regular-season wins over Syracuse. A potential Sweet 16 foe is Purdue, which looked like a No. 1 seed before Robbie Hummel went down with a season-ending ACL tear. The Blue Devils could see Villanova in a potential Elite Eight game.
Every year I throw out a team or two that has a player good enough to carry it to six straight wins. We saw this in 1988 with Danny and the Miracles. Manning dominated the tourney and led Kansas to an upset win over Oklahoma in the finals. In 2003, we saw Carmelo Anthony, with plenty of help from Gerry McNamara and Hakim Warrick, guide Syracuse to a national-title win over Kansas.
I think Ohio State’s Evan Turner is that guy this year. Since the Buckeyes are a No. 2 seed, I’m certainly not breaking any news in the previous sentence, so let’s find more of an underdog story. Granted, Maryland is a No. 4 seed (‘Cuse was 3 in ’03, while KU was a 6 in 88), but I love how Grievis Vazquez can control a game with his scoring and passing for the Terps, who are going to be an extremely tough out.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
A few quick-hit predictions:
1-Xavier is going to the Final Four.
2-Cornell is going to beat Temple and will take Wisconsin to the wire.
3- Winthrop will win the play-in game and cover in a first-round loss to Duke.
4-Name to Learn: No. Iowa’s Ali Farokhmanesh, whose 3-point range will give KU concerns.
5-Only one No. 1 seed – Kansas – is going to make it to Indianapolis.
Best First-Round Games:
1-Temple vs. Cornell
2-Purdue vs. Siena
3-UTEP vs. Butler
4-FSU vs. Gonzaga
5-Florida vs. BYU
Best Potential Second-Round Games:
1-Maryland vs. Michigan St.
2-Duke vs. Louisville
3-Xavier vs. Pitt
4-Kentucky vs. Texas
5-Georgetown vs. Tennessee
Six Double-Digit Seeds Most Likely to make Sweet 16:
1-Siena
2-UTEP
3-San Diego State
4-Cornell
5-Florida
6-Washington
Duke has a history with either of its potential second-round foes. In 1986, Louisville beat Duke in the finals behind the play of freshman center Pervis “Never Nervous” Ellison. And of course, the Blue Devils lost to California in the second round of the 1993 tourney in Bobby Hurley’s last career game in which he was outplayed by Cal’s Jason Kidd.