NCAA Bubble Watch
By Bruce Marshall
We’re into February now. The Bracket Busters matchups for later in the month have already been announced. The NCAA Tournament is just a bit more than a month away.
Let the "bubble season" begin.
From this point forward, a major talking point regarding the college hoops season will be the much-discussed "bubble" in which many teams will live for the next month as they hope to garner the attention of the Big Dance Selection Committee. We’re still, however, at the stage of the season where there’s still plenty of time for teams to play their way off of the bubble, either into safer territory, or off of it completely. Meanwhile, there’s still time for several teams to make a late run and put themselves into the bubble discussion, keeping in mind that a late-season surge is often looked upon favorably by the Committee, which often weights the last ten games of the season a bit more heavily.
At this stage, we can already project several teams safely into the filed (we can assume the likes of Ohio State and Duke are going to be included), but the bubble is still a pretty fluid place. Following is a quick rundown of certain teams that seem destined to ride the bubble into Selection Sunday.
ACC: Virginia Tech... Seth Greenberg is likely to take nothing for granted after being cruelly denied NCAA berths as one of the "last teams out" a few times in recent years. The Hokies’ formula of defense and rebounding might be enough to get VT noticed in what is a slightly-down ACC this season. Clemson... The key to a fourth straight NCAA trip for the Tigers is going to be to win a few games on the ACC trail, which, so far at least, they haven’t been able to do. We don’t think the Committee is going to reward ACC teams with .500 conference records this season. The team has adjusted to new HC Brad Brownell’s option offense, and senior leadership in the form of G Demontez Stitt & PF Jerai Grant, vets of recent Clemson NCAA qualifiers, gives the Tigers a fighting chance, but it would sure help to win this weekend at Georgia Tech; losses like Wednesday’s at Virginia are not going to help. Boston College... We can’t get the vision of home losses vs. Yale (a shocker) and Harvard (not quite as big of a shocker) out of our minds regarding the Eagles. The slope has become pretty slippery for new HC Steve Donahue, however, with 4 losses in the last five games; another bad week, beginning with a loss on Saturday vs. Virginia Tech, could knock the Eagles down into NIT range. Maryland... The Terps are setting themselves up as a test case for the Committee with six of their eight losses to date vs. teams in the top 25. The schedule looks favorable the rest of the way for Gary Williams’ troops, however, and 6'10 soph Jordan Williams (17.1 ppg) is blossoming into one of the ACC’s new stars.
A-10: Duquesne... Plenty of bubble company in the A-10. Unlike recent years, when we expected the Committee to go several deep in the league, we’re not sure how many league reps get the call this season. We’re close, however, to putting the rampaging Dukes safely into the 68-team field. Duquesne is dominating, with all 16 wins by double-digit margins, with 11 wins in a row after Wednesday’s wipeout of George Washington. The nation’s top TO margin team to boot. Watch these guys. Xavier...Tough loss for the "X" on Wednesday vs. Charlotte, knocking the Musketeers out of a first-place tie with Duquesne atop the league. Could have used a couple of more wins in non-league action; getting just one win out (instead of 4 losses) of games vs. Old Dominion, Gonzaga, Florida, and Cincinnati would have helped. Temple... The Owls aren’t a gimme as they were a year ago, as they’re in the middle of the conference scrum. Unlike Xavier, however, Fran Dunphy’s team claimed some intersectional scalps of note, including Georgia, Maryland, and Georgetown. We’d say the Owls are still looking pretty good. Richmond... The Spiders made it into the Dance last season, and their pre-conference win over Purdue should come in handy on Selection Sunday. Dayton... At the moment we would not have the Flyers in our field of 68, and they just barely get mention at the periphery of the bubble after starting just 4-4 in conference play. A reliable third scoring option behind Chris Warren and Chris Johnson must emerge soon or the Flyers are headed back to the NIT (which, by the way, they won last year).
BIG EAST: Marquette... Most of the league contenders seem to be on the safe side of the Big Dance cur line. The Golden Eagles, however, have more work to do after blowing several leads in the past month. All to play for down the stretch in Milwaukee. St. John’s... Some Big East observers are not as surprised as others than Steve Lavin has the Red Storm in the NCAA frame. The roster Lavs inherited from Norm Roberts was senior-oriented, but what has impressed onlookers is how quickly the Johnnies adapted to Lavin’s preferred up-tempo style. Staying at .500 in the Big East, and beating UCLA in Lavin’s personal grudge match this weekend should set the Red Storm up nicely, especially with several high-profile wins (including over Duke) already in the satchel.
BIG TEN: Michigan State... This is getting worrisome for the Spartans, whose lopsided loss on Wednesday vs. Iowa confirms this is a team in trouble. We’re never going to completely write off a Tom Izzo-coached team, but chemistry seems off in East Lansing, and the recent dismissal of G Korie Lucious is an indicator that all is not well at the Breslin Center. Penn State...Though only 12-9 entering this weekend, we still think the Nittany Lions are in with a shout of a bid as long as they can stay at or above .500 in conference play. Keep a close eye, however, on top rebounder Jeff Brooks’ shoulder injury. Northwestern... How we would like to see the Cats get their first-ever NCAA invitation. But Bill Carmody’s crew has to make up a lot of ground in a hurry after losing 7 of its first 10 Big ten games.
BIG XII: Baylor...The Bears are no sure thing to get back to the Dance after Wednesday’s loss at Oklahoma. Unless HC Scott Drew solves PG issues, Baylor could be NIT-bound instead. Kansas State... There’s still time for the Wildcats to claw their way back tot he safe side of the cut line, but with 8 losses already they do not have much margin for error. Like Baylor, PG issues continue to haunt K-State; did anyone realize how much the Cats would miss Denis Clemente? Colorado... The Buffs were almost knocked off the bubble after a recent 4-game losing streak, although they regained a pulse in the midweek romp past Iowa State. CU is hanging on the periphery of the bubble as it seeks seek their first Big Dance bid since Chauncey Billups’ days on campus. Losses in the next two games vs. Mizzou & Texas A&M, however, might knock Tad Boyle’s Buffs into NIT territory.
COLONIAL: George Mason... With a nine-game win streak and a resume’ that will likely include several wins over top 100 opposition, the Patriots are putting themselves into position on the safe side of the cut line even if they don’t win the CAA Tourney. Virginia Commonwealth... Prior to Wednesday night’s shocking loss at Northeastern, we thought the Rams were sitting pretty good in the at-large queue. Not so sure any longer.
C-USA: UTEP... Like the A-10, C-USA has no sure things as of yet for the Big Dance, but several bubblers. Tim Floyd’s UTEP currently sets the pace in the league, but with its most high-profile non-league win being against Michigan, the Miners cannot hope to breathe easily until Selection Sunday. Southern Miss... Like UTEP, Larry Eustachy’s USM does not have much heft in its overall body of work. Non-league losses to Ole Miss and Colorado State could yet prove costly. Memphis... Just when it looked as if the Tigers had straightened things out, they lose to Marshall and Tulsa. Lopsided losses to Tennessee and Georgetown in featured non-league games won’t help, and the team looks like it could use swingman Wesley Witherspoon back from suspension. UAB... The Blazers are living on the periphery of the bubble at the moment, although they have a couple of non-league wins (at Arkansas and home vs. VCU) that could garner some attention.
HORIZON: Cleveland State... How much have things changed in the Horizon? Right now Gary Waters’ CSU, paced by its 3-G offense featuring sr. Norris Cole (20.1 ppg), is the league’s best bet to get at at-large. Butler... No more margin for error for the Bulldogs, who cannot afford a third-or-fourth place Horizon finish and hope to get a call from the Selection Committee.
MISSOURI VALLEY: Wichita State... The Committee has not gone deep into the Valley for a few years; perhaps the expended 68-team field will provide some extra room this March. At this stage, the Shockers look the best bet of Valley teams to make the Dance if they don’t win "Arch Madness" in St. Louis. Missouri State... The Bears are falling to the periphery of the bubble with recent losses to Indiana State and Evansville. Another couple of those and MSU can forget standing in the at-large queue. Northern Iowa... Don’t underestimate the non-nonsense Panthers, adept at grinding out results and a familiar March face lately. About to supplant Mizzou State as the loop’s second-rated team (that 60-59 win over the Bears at Springfield last Sunday was important), which could put UNI in decent shape with the expanded field.
MOUNTAIN WEST: UNLV... Most suspect the Committee likely goes at least three deep in the MWC, with BYU and San Diego State likely protected seeds. Lon Kruger’s Rebels still seem a bit unsteady, but have cobbled together a 3-game win streak and own a couple of impressive non-league scalps (Wisconsin and Kansas State) that should come in handy). Colorado State... The MWC’s surprise package, CSU will be a handful in the conference tourney with its rugged sr. frontline combo of Andy Ogide and Travis Franklin. Could have really used that win over the high-flying Aztecs (who survived 56-54) on Wednesday, however.
PAC-10: Washington State... The Cougs helped themselves greatly by beating Washington last Sunday. Finishing at least third in the regular-season standings ought to be good enough for Ken Bone’s Cougars and one of the West’s most-exciting performers, swingman Klay Thompson (22 ppg). UCLA... The Bruins might just be one of those to benefit from the expanded field; several have projected them into one of the 12 vs. 12 play-in games. Beating old friend Steve Lavin and St. John’s on Sunday might be as important to Ben Howland’s team as any game remaining on the schedule.
SEC: Alabama... We hadn’t even been thinking about any SEC West teams as bubble types until the Tide took control of that half of the loop. Solid defense and a go-to -performer in F JaMychal Green gives Bama a chance if it can get to 20 wins. Georgia... We think the Dawgs are on the safe side of the cut line at the moment, but they are not leaving a lot of room for error (such as Wednesday’s 1-point win at Arkansas). South Carolina... We have four Eastern sides safely into our field at the moment and two others on the fence; the Gamecocks are the longest shot to make the Dance from that bunch, however.
WCC: Gonzaga... The Zags can take care of business and guarantee their 13th straight NCAA appearance by winning the WCC Tourney. But their at-large candidacy has become very dicey with a recent 3-game losing streak; wins this week vs. Portland (Thursday) and Memphis (Saturday) are needed badly to rehabilitate Gonzaga’s at-large hopes.