Sunday's CBB Slate
By Brian Edwards
Bettors have a pair of outstanding games coming off the board at noon Eastern on Sunday afternoon. For the rest of the afternoon into Duke’s 7:45 p.m. tip against Va. Tech, gamblers have plenty of opportunities to make money. Let’s have a look at what’s on the card.
**Ohio State at Michigan State**
Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Michigan St. (21-6 straight up, 10-16 against the spread) as a six-point favorite.
Ohio St. (20-7 SU, 13-14 ATS) saw its six-game winning streak snapped in Wednesday’s 60-57 loss to Purdue as a 3 ½-point home favorite. Evan Turner had 29 points, seven rebounds, five assists and a pair of steals in the losing effort. After a furious Buckeyes’ rally cut the deficit to three in the waning moments, Turner was denied the ball and Jon Diebler’s last-second trey to tie was off the mark.
Tom Izzo’s team returns home in this spot after back-to-back road wins. MSU was on a three-game losing streak until it won 65-54 at Penn St. last Saturday as a 6 ½-point road favorite. Next, the Spartans went to Bloomington on Tuesday night and emerged with a 72-58 victory over Indiana as 11 ½-point road ‘chalk.’
Michigan St. junior guard Kalin Lucas suffered a sprained ankle in a Feb. 2 loss at Wisconsin. The injury forced Lucas to miss a Feb. 6 loss at Illinois, but he returned to the lineup in a Feb. 9 home loss to Purdue. The Big Ten’s Player of the Year last season is averaging 15.4 points and 4.0 assists per game. Back at full speed, Lucas had 13 points and four assists in Tuesday’s triumph over the Hoosiers.
Although he missed six games earlier in the year, Turner is the leading candidate for Big Ten Player of the Year honors this season. He leads the Buckeyes in scoring (19.5 PPG), rebounding (9.2 RPG), assists (5.8 APG), steals (2.0 SPG) and field-goal percentage (55.4%).
Michigan St. has won 13 of its 14 games at Breslin Center, but the Spartans have limped to a 4-9 ATS record at home.
Thad Matta’s squad has been abysmal in underdog spots this year. The Buckeyes are 1-5 ATS in six games as road underdogs and we can also toss in a loss to UNC on a neutral court when catching points.
Ohio St. has seen the ‘under’ cash in four consecutive games. The ‘under’ is 14-11 overall for the Bucks.
The ‘under’ is 14-11 overall for the Spartans, but they have watched the ‘over’ go 7-6 in their home assignments.
Michigan St. won both regular-season meetings against Ohio St. last year, but the Buckeyes sent the Spartans packing from the Big Ten Tournament with an 82-70 upset win as eight-point underdogs in the semifinals. Turner had 18 points, 10 rebounds and five assists in the victory.
CBS will have regional television coverage at noon Eastern.
**Villanova at Pittsburgh**
LVSC opened Villanova (22-3 SU, 16-8 ATS) as a two-point favorite. As of Saturday night, most books still had ‘Nova at two with a total of 145 ½.
Pittsburgh (20-6 SU, 13-8-2 ATS) has won four in a row while going 3-0 versus the number. The Panthers beat West Va. 99-96 in triple overtime two Fridays ago, and then followed that up with a 58-51 win Thursday at Marquette. They took the outright victory over the Golden Eagles as 6 ½-point road underdogs. Gary McGhee had 10 points, six blocked shots and five rebounds against Marquette. Jermaine Dixon, Nasir Robinson and Brad Wanamaker also had 10 points apiece.
Jay Wright’s squad has had nearly a week to prep for this game after losing at home Tuesday to UConn. The Huskies went into Philly and won by a 94-85 count as 9 ½-point road underdogs. Scottie Reynolds had 18 points on 8-of-14 shooting in the losing effort.
Jamie Dixon’s team has won 14 of 15 home games, posting a 6-4-2 spread record in the process. The Panthers are in their second game as home underdogs, winning in the previous situation as mentioned against West Va.
The ‘over’ is on a lucrative 15-4 run in ‘Nova games. The Wildcats have watched the ‘over’ go 16-8 overall. They like to press and are aggressive on both ends, and these factors obviously bode well for ‘over’ wagers because it’s nearly a given that you’ll get the up-tempo pace you’re looking for.
The ‘over’ is 10-9 overall for Pitt, 5-4 in its home games.
The ‘under’ is 6-1 in the last seven head-to-head meetings between these Big East rivals.
Tip-off is scheduled for noon Eastern on CBS (regional coverage).
**Virginia Tech at Duke**
LVSC opened Duke (22-4 SU, 16-8-1 ATS) as a 13-point favorite. As of Saturday night, most books still had the Blue Devils at 13 with a total of 137.
Mike Krzyzewski’s team has won five in a row since losing at Georgetown. The Blue Devils are 3-1-1 ATS over that stretch, including Wednesday’s 81-74 win at Miami as seven-point road favorites. Trailing by 12 at intermission, Duke rallied to garner its backers a push thanks to a game-high 22 points and 11 rebounds from junior forward Kyle Singler. The 155 combined points jumped ‘over’ the 138-point total.
Virginia Tech (21-4 SU, 10-9 ATS) has five consecutive games to improve to 8-3 in ACC play. The Hokies are coming off Tuesday’s 87-83 win over Wake Forest as 5 ½-point home favorites. They failed to cover the number for the second straight time out. Before fouling out against the Demon Deacons, Malcolm Delaney had 31 points and nine rebounds to lead his team into the win column.
Delaney leads the ACC in scoring, averaging 20.2 points per game for the Hokies. He also dishes out a team-high 4.1 assists per contest.
Despite its gaudy record, Seth Greenberg’s team isn’t getting much respect from the RPI with its No. 45 ranking based on a poor strength of schedule in non-conference play. The Hokies are 6-4 against RPI Top 100 teams, 2-2 against RPI Top 50 schools.
Va. Tech is 3-2 ATS in five true road games as an underdog.
Duke is unbeaten in 14 home games with a lucrative 10-3 spread record. The Blue Devils have won 13 of 14 home games by 14 points or more. They have won every game by nine points or more, with St. John’s 80-71 loss serving as the closest contest in Durham.
The ‘under’ is 13-12 overall for Duke, but the ‘over’ is 7-6 in its home games at Cameron Indoor Stadium.
The ‘over’ is 9-7 overall for Va. Tech, but the ‘under’ has cashed in four of its last five games.
FSN will have television coverage at 7:45 p.m. Eastern.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
Florida captured a monster victory Saturday afternoon at Ole Miss. Erving Walker hit six straight free throws in the final minute to lift the Gators to a 64-61 win over the Rebels as five-point road underdogs. Gamblers backing UF on the money line brought home a nice plus-180 payout (paid $180 on $100 wagers). Vernon Macklin paced the winners with a career-high 22 points on 8-of-11 shooting from the field and 6-of-6 attempts from the free-throw line. The Gators, who are now 19-8 overall and 8-4 in SEC play, will host Tennessee on Tuesday.
Ole Miss has lost five of its last six games at the wrong time of year. The Rebels’ remaining slate looks like this: vs. Auburn, at Alabama, vs. LSU and at Arkansas. With a 17-9 overall record and a 5-7 mark in the SEC, the Rebels must win out and make some noise in the SEC Tournament.
Saturday’s Biggest Bubble Losers:
1-Ole Miss (at home vs. Florida)
2-Charlotte (at home vs. Xavier)
3-South Florida (at home vs. St. John’s)
4-Siena (at Butler)
5-Northeastern (at home vs. La. Tech)
Saturday’s Biggest Winners:
1-Florida (at Ole Miss)
2-Mississippi St. (at LSU)
3-UConn (at Rutgers)
4-Oklahoma St. (vs. Baylor)
5-UNLV (vs. Colorado St.)
My Coach of the Year Candidates:
1-Jamie Dixon (Pittsburgh)
2-Jay Wright (Villanova)
3-Ben Jacobson (Northern Iowa)
4-Steve Alford (New Mexico)
5-Kevin Stallings (Vanderbilt)
vegasinsider.com
Betting Opportunities for College Basketball Weekend
Doug Upstone
With just a week or two left in regular season action on the collegiate hardwood, the stakes are high. Televised SEC action has teams playing for conference championship or trying to work their way into NCAA field. The Big Ten will have two important tests that will separate the have's from the have not's, while league leaders from ACC and Big East try to keep top quality competition from moving in on their space. As a bonus, we'll throw in at no extra charge an under the wire Bracket Buster battle with the second best team out of the Missouri Valley against the finest from the WAC. Happy wagering!
Ohio State at Michigan State
The Big Ten Conference has taken on the appearance of one of Hugh Hefner's girlfriends, loaded at the top. Two teams fighting to gain control of the league lead are the Buckeyes and Spartans. Ohio State (20-7, 13-14 ATS) has been like a stealth bomber, occasionally seen but seldom noticed. Coach Thad Matta compares this group to the year before Greg Oden and company arrived to advance be NCAA runner-up. "I think this team is probably more efficient than that (2005-06) team was offensively," Matta said. Led by forward Evan Turner, a player of the year candidate, the Buckeyes are a robust 23-10 ATS when they force 14 to 18 turnovers in a game.
Michigan State (21-6) plays three of last four games at home and has to win all three if they want to maintain Big Ten title hopes. The Spartans are surprisingly not mentally sturdy, especially when Kalin Lucas isn't on the floor. Durrell Summers, Raymar Morgan and Delvon Roe have not been come back better players after finishing second to North Carolina last season, which is why coach Tom Izzo's club has been play against club at 10-16 ATS, in spite of lofty status. Sparty is 13-1 at home, but just 4-9 ATS this year.
Michigan State has won eight of last 10 over Buckeyes at the Breslin Center and can effectively end there conference title hopes, yet have uneasy 3-5-2 ATS record against the Buckeyes.
Villanova at Pittsburgh
Villanova (22-3, 16-8 ATS) has been undaunted in their pursuit of being Big East regular season champions and look to continue quest on the road. As good as the Wildcats amazing guards are, they couldn't possibly have such a tremendous record without help inside. 6'8 Antonio Pena is masquerading as a center for Villanova and is their only true low post scorer and does excellent work as reliable interior defender. Taylor King, Isaiah Armwood and 6'11 Maurice Sutton all bring something most games to negate opponents frontline, letting Nova's guards control the contest. The Wildcats are 11-5 ATS having won eight or more of their last 10 games this season.
Pittsburgh (20-6, 13-8-2 ATS) flew by preseason presumptions starting 15-2, but once it was game after game in the Big East, the Panthers looked very much like the squad prognosticators believed they would be, losing four of five at one point. With a favorable slate the rest of the way, Pittsburgh has four game winning streak and can further change minds and attitudes with an upset win here. What doomed Pitt in that losing spell was the offense went stagnant, lacking no ball movement, with too many contested shots. Gilbert Brown and Brad Wanamaker have since recovered and Pitt is 10-1 ATS at home playing teams with a winning record after 15 or more games.
Pittsburgh has tamed the Wildcats at home with 5-0 SU and ATS mark.
Virginia Tech at Duke
It's the latter part of February and there has been nothing hokey about the Hokies being in contention in the ACC title chase. Virginia Tech (21-4, 10-8-1 ATS) is not your typical ACC squad, they are grittier bunch. "We win ugly games. That's our team," junior guard Malcolm Delaney said. The Hokies get after opponents on defense and do the little things like make free throws, especially at winning time. Virginia Tech is 28-16-1 ATS after a conference game over the last three seasons.
Just maybe, this Duke (22-4, 16-8-1 ATS) club is seeing improvement inside. As Dickie V has espoused, Jon Scheyer, Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler are as good scoring-wise as any three players on any team in the country. Lately, the Plumlee brothers, Miles and Mason have been gobbling up more rebounds and points and Andre Dawkins is being heard from again. Even seldom used Ryan Kelly has come thru when fouls or injury have arisen for the Blue Devils. Duke is 8-1 ATS at Cameron Indoor vs. defensive teams conceding 64 or fewer points a game.
Virginia Tech can tie Duke with three losses in league play with a surprising win; however is 2-6 and 3-5 ATS in Durham in its six years as ACC member. The Blue Devils are 14-0 and 10-3 ATS on home floor, winning by gargantuan 27.6 points per game.
(9) Ohio State (20-7, 13-14 ATS) at (11) Michigan State (21-6, 10-16 ATS)
Michigan State goes after its third straight victory when it welcomes Ohio State to the Breslin Events Center in East Lansing, Mich., for a Big Ten battle between ranked squads.
Ohio State’s six-game winning streak came to an end Wednesday as it fell 60-57 to Purdue as a 3½-point home favorite. However, the Buckeyes have won four straight Big Ten road games (3-1 ATS) after losing their first three conference roadies (0-3 ATS). For the season, Ohio State is just 5-6 away from home (4-7 ATS), and even though it shoots 45.1 percent and hold opponents to 42.3 percent on the highway, the Buckeyes get outscored 64.9 points per game to 64 ppg.
The Spartans started out the conference season with nine straight victories – part of a 10-game overall winning streak – then dropped their next three in a row, including a 76-64 home loss to Purdue on Feb. 9, their first defeat of the year at the Breslin Events Center. However, Michigan State has since rebounded with a pair of impressive road wins at Penn State (65-54 as a 6½-point favorite last Saturday) and Indiana (72-58 as an 11½-point chalk on Tuesday). Those two spread-covers come on the heels of a 1-7 ATS slump.
Michigan State is 13-1 at the Breslin Center, but even though they’re outscoring visitors by 14 ppg (76-62), they’re just 4-9 ATS as a host.
The Spartans swept the regular-season series from Ohio State last year, winning 67-58 at home (failing to cover as an 11-point underdog) and 78-67 on the road (easily cashing as a three-point road chalk). However, the Buckeyes got revenge in the Big Ten tournament, rolling 82-70 as an eight-point underdog. OSU has cashed in five of the last seven meetings, all as an underdog, going 3-0 ATS in its last three trips to East Lansing. In fact, the ‘dog has covered in seven of the last 10 series clashes, while the road team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight.
The Buckeyes have covered in five of their last seven against winning teams, but they’re just 3-5 ATS in their last eight overall and 4-9 ATS in their last 13 on Sunday. Michigan State has cashed in six straight Sunday outings, but otherwise Tom Izzo’s team is in pointspread funks of 3-7 overall (all in the Big Ten), 0-4 at home, 0-5 versus teams with a winning record and 2-5 after a SU victory.
Ohio State has stayed under the total in four straight games overall, 15 of 22 on the road, 19 of 26 on Sunday and 11 of 14 after a non-cover. Similarly, the Spartans are on “under” runs of 9-4 overall, 18-7 in the Big Ten, 8-2 after a SU victory and 7-0 after a spread-cover. Conversely, the over has hit in three of the last four meetings after a 4-1-1 “under” run in this series
ATS ADVANTAGE: OHIO STATE and UNDER
(3) Villanova (22-3, 16-8 ATS) at (19) Pittsburgh (20-6, 13-8-2 ATS)
The Wildcats return to the court for the first time since suffering their first home loss of the season as they travel to Petersen Events Center looking to upend resurgent Pitt.
Villanova went into Monday’s game against UConn as a 9½-point home favorite but got clipped 84-75, going down for the first time this season on their own court. The Wildcats have followed up an 11-game winning streak – including nine straight victories to start the Big East campaign – by splitting their last four contests (1-1 at home, 1-1 on the road). Also, they’re 1-4 ATS in their last five after cashing in 15 of their first 19 contests.
In its most recent road game, Villanova knocked off West Virginia 82-75 as a 5½-point pup, improving to 11-2 SU and 9-4 ATS in road/neutral-site affairs. The Wildcats average 84.4 ppg on the highway (48.5 percent shooting) but surrender 79.6 ppg (42.8 percent).
The Panthers kicked off the conference season 4-0 – part of a seven-game overall win streak (5-0-1 ATS in lined games) – but then hit the skids in dropping four of their next five, all in the Big East. They’ve since rebounded to win four in a row, going 3-0 SU and ATS in Big East contests. That includes Thursday’s 58-51 upset win at Marquette as a six-point road underdog.
Pitt has won 35 of its last 36 at home, the only blemish being a 74-66 loss to Georgetown as a one-point favorite back on Jan. 20. This year, the Panthers are 13-1 SU and 6-4-2 ATS at Petersen Events Center, putting up 71.3 ppg (47.6 percent shooting) and limiting opponents to just 58.1 ppg (37 percent).
The Wildcats defeated Pitt twice last year, winning 67-57 as a 3½-point home underdog in the regular season, then gutting out a 78-76 victory as a two-point underdog in the Elite Eight of the NCAA Tournament, a win that sent Villanova to the Final Four. Prior to last year, the Panthers had been on a 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS roll in this rivalry. The underdog has covered in five of the last six meetings (including four outright upsets), but the host has gotten the money in eight of the last 10.
The SU winner is 13-3 ATS in Villanova’s last 16 contests, 6-0 ATS in Pitt’s last six lined games and 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings in this rivalry.
With the exception of their current 1-4 ATS slump, the Wildcats are on pointspread upticks of 6-1 on the highway, 8-1 on Sunday, 5-2 after a SU loss and 11-5 versus winning teams. Pitt is riding ATS hot streaks of 11-3-1 overall, 7-1-2 at home, 9-3-1 in Big East action, 12-3-2 versus winning teams, 7-2-1 after a SU victory and 5-2-1 on Sunday.
Villanova is on “over” runs of 15-4 overall, 5-0 on the road, 9-3 in the Big East, 4-1 on Sunday, 7-1 after a SU defeat and 5-0 after a non-cover. Also, Pitt has topped the total in four of five at home, four of five on Sunday and four of five after a SU win. However, prior to last year’s NCAA Tournament meeting, the previous six clashes between these schools stayed under the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Virginia Tech (21-4, 10-9 ATS) at (6) Duke (22-4, 16-8-1 ATS)
Virginia Tech, which has won five in a row (all in the ACC), faces its stiffest challenge of the season when it invades Cameron Indoor Stadium for a conference battle with the sixth-ranked Blue Devils.
The Hokies are coming off a pair of narrow home wins over Virginia (61-55 as a 6½-point chalk last Saturday) and Wake Forest (87-83 as a 5½-point favorite on Tuesday). The two non-covers follow a three-game ATS surge for Virginia Tech, which has now won eight of its last nine games overall, going 7-1 SU (4-4 ATS) in ACC play during this stretch. All four of the Hokies’ defeats this year have come away from home, where they’re 7-4 SU and 6-4 ATS, outscoring teams by just 2.2 ppg (69-66.8).
Like Virginia Tech, Duke rolls into this contest on a five-game winning streak (3-0-1 ATS), with three of those victories coming on the road. That includes Wednesday’s 81-74 come-from-behind win at Miami, as the Blue Devils erased a 12-point halftime deficit by outscoring the Hurricanes 56-37 over the final 20 minutes. Still, they were only able to push as a seven-point road favorite. During its five-game winning streak, Duke is outscoring opponents by 12 ppg (74.8-62.8), and it is actually shooting better from beyond the three-point arc (45.4 percent) as opposed to overall (40.9 percent). Take away a 12-point non-conference loss at Georgetown, and Mike Krzyzewksi’s club has won seven straight ACC games (5-1-1 ATS).
Duke has been dominant at Cameron Indoor this season, winning 14 straight games by an average of 27.6 ppg (88.7-61.1) while outshooting visitors by a 49.3 percent to 38.9 percent margin (43.6 percent to 28.4 percent from three-point range). Going back to last year, the Blue Devils have won 16 in a row at home (11-4 ATS).
Duke is on a 3-0 SU and ATS run against Virginia Tech, with two of those victories coming in Blacksburg and the other being last year’s 69-44 rout at home as a 17-point favorite. The SU winner has covered the spread in seven of eight meetings since the Hokies joined the ACC in 2004-05, including the last five in a row. The favorite – which was Duke –cashed in four of those five, but the visitor is 5-1 ATS in the last six.
Va-Tech has failed to cover in five of its last six on Sunday, but it is 5-2 ATS in its last seven on the highway and 4-1 ATS in its last five after a non-cover. The Blue Devils are on pointspread tears of 3-1-1 overall, 13-3 at home, 5-1-1 in ACC action and 5-0 on Sunday.
The under is 4-1 in the Hokies’ last five contests overall and 25-10 in Duke’s last 35 ACC games. However, Virginia Tech has topped the total in 15 of 22 after a SU win and eight of 12 on Sunday. Finally, the under was the play in last year’s two meetings between these teams after five of the first six conference clashes went over the posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DUKE
NCAA News and Notes
Sunday, February 21
Information on Sunday's college basketball games........
Villanova beat Pitt by hoop in regional final LY; this is first time they've met since. Wildcats are 5-1 on Big East road, losing at Georgetown; they allowed 103-84 points in league losses, are 10-0 allowing less than that. Wildcats been off for six days since last game. Panthers won last three games, but won tough game at Marquette just three nights ago.
Dayton is 3-3 on Atlantic 14 road; Flyers needed OT to beat Duquesne 78-72 Jan 9, making 26-40 on line (Dukes were 15-27) in game that saw both sides shot 38% from floor. Duquesne won three of last four games, with only loss in OT. A-14 home underdogs of 5 or less points are 6-5 vs spread. Underdogs covered five of last six series games.
Wisconsin (-3) won 60-50 at Northwestern Jan 13, turning ball over just four times; Badgers won six of last seven series games- Wildcats are 0-3 in last three visits here, losing by 17-12-29 points. Wisconsin lost two of last three games, but are 4-3 as Big 11 home favorite, winning by 22-7-6-8-18-28 points. Wildcats are 4-1 as a Big 11 road underdog.
Marquette beat Cincinnati last two years, by 15-34 points; they're 2-4 on Big East road, with six games decided by total of 14 points (dogs 5-1 vs spread). Home loss to Pitt Thursday snapped their 5-game winning streak. Cincinnati lost three of last four games; they're 2-9 vs spread in last 11 games. Bearcats won three of their last four home games.
Home team won last five Saint Louis-UMass games; Billikens lost last two visits here, by 3-11 points, but won last five games overall by five or less points-- they're 4-2 as an A-14 road underdog. UMass lost four of last five home games, eight of last 11 games overall. A-14 home faves of less than four points are 9-5 against the pointspread.
LaSalle lost last five games, losing last three tries on this floor; they are 0-3 vs spread as A-14 home favorite, with only home win in five tries a 65-64 win over GW seven weeks ago. St Bonaventure lost six of its last seven games; they're 4-1 as A-14 road dog, losing away games by 3-1-2-7 points. Bonnies failed to cover their last four games overall.
Arizona (+10.5) held ASU to 30.8% from floor in 79-58 win in Tempe Jan 23; Wildcats lost three of last four games overall, but they're 4-1 in last five home games (Wash State/Oregon State beat Arizona in Tucson this year). Sun Devils won four of last five games; they're 3-3 on Pac-10 road, losing by 2 at UCLA, 10 at USC, 23 at Washington.
Duke is 6-0 as ACC home favorite, winning in Cameron by 21-12-20-14-19-21 points; Blue Devils won last seven ACC games (5-1-1 vs the spread). Duke won last three games vs Virginia Tech by 17-25-7 points; Hokies are 1-3 in Cameron, losing by 35-2-25 points (2-2 vs the spread). Tech won its last five games; they're 2-2 as an ACC road underdog.
Michigan State is 4-2 in last six games vs Ohio State, winning last two in this gym by 6-9 points; Spartans are 5-1 at home in Big 11, but just 2-4 as home favorite, winning in Breslin by 7-7-10-7-9 points, with a loss to Purdue. Buckeyes are 9-1 in last ten games, winning last four road tilts, but they're 1-6 against the spread as an underdog this season.