Super Tuesday Action
By Judd Hall
As we get closer to the conference tournament, we start to see teams looking to give improve their resumes for a chance at the field of 65. We’ll see one of those programs trying to make a case for itself on ESPN’s Super Tuesday. Let’s break down the action.
Michigan State at Indiana – 7:00 p.m. EST
If there is one thing that we can say for Michigan State (20-6 straight up, 9-15 against the spread), it’s that they are happy as can be that Kalin Lucas is back at full strength.
At least, that’s what he appeared to be at in scoring 24 points with six helpers in the Spartans 65-54 win over Penn State. Even bettor for the gambling public is the fact that MSU covered as a 6 ½-point road “chalk.” That was the first ATS win for the Spartans since a 65-64 win against Minnesota as 1 ½-point road pups on Jan. 23. More importantly, the win snapped a three-game slide that brought them back to the rest of the Big Ten pack.
There is no doubt in my mind that Tom Crean will get the Hoosiers back to the top of the Big Ten. It’s just taking a lot of time for him to get the pieces in place.
You don’t have to be an expert to see that Indiana (9-15 SU, 10-11 ATS) is still a bit away from getting back on track as they’ve lost six straight in conference play. The Hoosiers’ most recent setback came in the form of an 83-55 slap down as 17 ½-point road underdogs at the hands of Wisconsin on Feb. 13. A couple major stinging points from the stats for IU is the fact that its offense not only shot 47 percent from the field, but just six of its 23 rebounds came off of offensive glass.
It shouldn’t come as a surprise that the Spartans have dominated this series recently, going 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS in the last five head-to-head meetings with Indiana. Gamblers should be quick to note that the Hoosiers are 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in their last five home games against Michigan State.
Michigan State is 6-4 SU and 4-6 ATS in its 10 true road tests this season. The ‘under’ has gone a healthy 7-3 in those games.
The Hoosiers are 7-7 SU and ATS in Bloomington this season. When you filter that record to just Big Ten foes, they are 2-4 SU and 4-2 ATS.
Kentucky at Mississippi State – 9:00 p.m. EST
Kentucky (24-1 SU, 11-11 ATS) is doing damn near everything they can to seal up a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
The Wildcats’ latest victory came as 9 ½-point home favorites against Tennessee on Feb. 13, 73-62. John Wall put up more strong numbers against the Vols by scoring 24 points. Yet Eric Bledsoe was the main reason for UK getting its fourth straight win. The freshman out of Birmingham, Alabama missed his two three-point attempts in first half. In the second half, Bledsoe came away hitting three of his four shots from beyond the arc to help Kentucky not only win, but cover the spread.
While the ‘Cats are already prepped for a trip to the big dance, Mississippi State (18-7 SU, 11-8-1 ATS) is in danger of missing out on an invite altogether. ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has the Bulldogs listed in the “Last Four Out” for the NCAA Tournament.
The Bulldogs is doing everything they can to curry favor with the selection committee. Although I’m not sure an 85-75 overtime win as 10-point home favorites against a struggling Auburn side is the way to get noticed. Mississippi State didn’t do much to help themselves on the offensive side of the court. The ‘Dogs hit 41 percent from the field and only nine of their 42 boards were of the offensive variety. Still, that kind of defensive play will give you a reasonable shot at getting the win every time.
A win against Kentucky would do worlds of good for the Bulldogs. There is a reasonable shot at Mississippi State doing just that as they’re 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS in its last five games against the Wildcats. Of course, the majority of those wins came against Billy Gillispie’s product in Lexington.
The Wildcats have posted a 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS in their five true road matches this season. The ‘over’ is 3-2 in that stretch as well.
Mississippi State has been great at home this year, as evidenced 12-1 SU and 4-3-1 ATS in 13 dates. The ‘over’ is 6-2 in the eight home tests that had totals attached to them.
vegasinsider.com
(23) Wake Forest (18-5, 12-8 ATS) at Virginia Tech (20-4, 10-8 ATS)
The Demon Deacons, who cracked the Top 25 this week for the first time all season, go after their fifth straight win and cover when they take on ACC rival Virginia Tech at Cassell Coliseum.
Wake Forest knocked off Georgia Tech on Saturday 75-64 as a three-point home favorite, avenging an ugly 21-point road loss to the Yellow Jackets on Jan. 28. Since that setback, the Demon Deacons are on a 4-0 SU and ATS roll, with a trio of ACC home wins (over Miami, Boston College and Georgia Tech) and a 64-61 overtime victory at Virginia as a four-point underdog. Wake Forest is on a 6-1 SU and ATS roll (the only loss coming at Georgia Tech), and it is 6-4 SU and ATS on the road this year.
Like their opponent tonight, the Hokies have rattled off four straight wins (3-1 ATS), including Saturday’s 61-55 home victory over Virginia, though they came up a whisker short of covering as 6½-point favorite. Virginia Tech has won seven of its last eight games, going 6-1 in ACC action. Also, the Hokies are 13-0 at home, where they outscore opponents by nearly 20 points per game (73.1-54.8).
Virginia Tech has controlled this rivalry of late, winning two in a row and five of the last six meetings overall. The Hokies are 5-1 ATS during this stretch, including four consecutive covers going back to March 2007. Last year these teams met once at Wake Forest, and Va-Tech prevailed 78-71 as a 13-point road underdog. With that result, the visitor is 5-2 ATS in the last seven series meetings.
The Demon Deacons, in addition to cashing in four straight games (all against winning teams) and six of their last seven, are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 on Tuesday, and the SU winner has covered the number in each of their last seven games. Meanwhile, Virginia Tech started the season with four straight non-covers but has since gone 10-4 ATS in lined contests (5-2 ATS at home). The Hokies are also on pointspread surges of 4-0 after a non-cover, 7-3 on Tuesday and 9-4 against winning teams.
Wake Forest is on “under” runs of 6-1 overall (all in the ACC), 6-1 on the road, 4-1 after a SU win, 4-1 after a spread-cover and 6-0 when facing winning teams. The Hokies have also stayed low in their last four games overall and their last four at home. However, the over has cashed in each of the last three battles between these schools.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Texas Tech (16-8, 11-7 ATS) at (22) Baylor (19-5, 11-5-1 ATS)
Baylor, which has won back-to-back games by two points each, guns for its third victory in a row when it entertains the Red Raiders at the Ferrell Center in a Big 12 battle.
Texas Tech’s modest two-game SU and ATS winning streak was halted in Saturday’s 67-65 home loss to Texas A&M as a one-point road favorite. The Red Raiders are just 4-6 (5-5 ATS) since the conference season began five weeks ago, but in their most recent road game last Tuesday, they knocked off Oklahoma 72-71 as a six-point underdog. Prior to that, they had lost their first four league road games by margins of 29, 26, 12 and 15 points.
The Bears followed Wednesday’s 55-53 win at Nebraska as a two-point road chalk with Saturday’s 64-62 victory over Missouri, falling short of cashing as a four-point home favorite. Baylor has won four of its last five games and six of its last night, but it has yet to post three straight Big 12 wins. At the Ferrell Center this season, the Bears are 12-1 (4-2 ATS in lined contests), outscoring opponents by nearly 18 ppg (79-61.2).
Texas Tech ended a three-game losing streak to Baylor last year with an 83-76 victory as a 4½-point home underdog, a month after falling at Baylor 73-61 as a 13-point road pup. The Red Raiders have covered the spread in four of the last five meetings, but while the underdog is 12-3-1 ATS in the last 16 series clashes, Tech is 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 trips to Baylor.
Even after coming up short against Texas A&M on Saturday, Texas Tech is still 5-2 ATS in its last seven games (all in the Big 12, and all against winning teams), but the Raiders have failed to cover in 14 of their last 19 Tuesday contests. Meanwhile, Baylor is on ATS upticks of 11-4-1 overall and 5-2 at home.
Texas Tech carries “over” trends of 36-16-2 overall, 19-7 on the road, 14-6 after a non-cover and 5-2 after a SU defeat. Likewise, the Bears are on “over” surges of 9-3 overall, 8-2 in Big 12 games this season, 6-2 on Tuesday, 7-1 after a SU win and 5-1 against winning teams. Finally, six of the last seven series meetings in this rivalry have hurdled the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BAYLOR and OVER
(2) Kentucky (24-1, 12-11 ATS) at Mississippi State (18-7, 11-8-1 ATS)
Kentucky hits the highway for just the second time since Jan. 26 when it heads south to Humphrey Coliseum in Starkville for an SEC tussle with the Bulldogs.
Since suffering their first and only loss of the season at South Carolina on Jan. 26, the Wildcats have ripped off five straight wins (3-2 ATS), with four of those coming at home. Most recently, Kentucky topped Tennessee 73-62 on Saturday, extending the lead down the stretch to barely cover as a 9½-point home favorite. That continued a trend in which Kentucky has alternated ATS wins and losses in 11 consecutive contests, including all 10 of its SEC games.
Mississippi State rebounded from a 1-4 slump – which knocked the team out of the Top 25 – with back-to-back SEC home wins last week over rival Ole Miss (71-63 on Thursday) and Auburn (85-75 in overtime on Saturday). The Bulldogs cashed as a four-point chalk against Ole Miss, but pushed as a 10-point favorite against Auburn. Still, they’re perfect at home in SEC games (5-0, 2-2-1 ATS), averaging 76.4 ppg.
Kentucky’s most recent road trip ended with an 81-55 destruction of LSU as an 11-point chalk two Saturdays ago. The Wildcats are 7-1 away from Rupp Arena this year (5-3 ATS), averaging 78.8 ppg on 48 percent shooting while allowing 68 ppg (38.4 percent).
Since losing to Rider 88-74 as a 15-point home favorite in the season-opener, Mississippi State is has won 12 in a row at Humphrey Coliseum (4-2-1 ATS in lined games). Including the stunning loss to Rider, the Bulldogs are outscoring visitors by an average of 16 ppg (78.5-62.5) and outshooting them 47.1 percent to 36.8 percent.
Mississippi State has won three in a row in this rivalry (2-1 ATS) after losing the previous five contests (1-2-2 ATS). In last year’s lone battle, the Bulldogs went to Rupp Arena and shocked Kentucky 66-57 as 10½-point road underdog. The pup has cashed in each of the last four meetings, with MSU going 3-1 ATS during this mini-stretch.
The Wildcats have covered in five of their last seven on the road, but with their recent 11-game string of alternating ATS wins and losses, they’re now 0-5 ATS in their last five after a spread-cover. Mississippi State is on pointspread runs of 3-1-1 overall (all in the SEC), 6-2-1 at home and 13-6 against winning teams, but the ‘Dogs are 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine Tuesday affairs.
The over is 11-5 in Kentucky’s last 16 games overall and 4-1 in the Bulldogs’ last four after a victory, but MSU has stayed below the total in five of its last seven overall (all in the SEC). Also, the under is 3-1 in the last four Wildcats-Bulldogs matchups.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MISSISSIPPI
NCAA News and Notes
Information on the best of Tuesday's college basketball games........
George Mason lost three of last four games, covered one of last six; they won last six games and 10 of last 11 vs Wm Mary, winning five of last six played here, with wins by 16-33-23-6-14 points. Patriots are 1-4 as a CAA home favorite. Tribe won last three games; they're 5-2 as a CAA dog. CAA home favorites of less than 4 points are 5-9 vs spread.
South Florida (+9) lost 78-70 at Cincinnati Jan 20; Bearcats shot 55.6% on night. Bulls won last three home games, by 9-2-9 points; they're 4-1 vs spread at home in Big East, 1-0 as home favorite. Cincinnati is 1-4 in last five road games, losing away games by 7-2-8-18 points. Big East home favorites of less than 7 points are 8-16 vs spread.
Central Florida (+12) won 78-71 at Houston Jan 20, holding Cougars to 25.4% from floor, 5-24 from arc, offsetting 24 UCF turnovers. Knights are 1-3 in last four home games, 1-2 as C-USA home dog. Houston lost its last two road games, by 15 at Memphis, 7 at UTEP. C-USA home underdogs of less than 5 points are 0-7 vs spread.
Virginia Tech won five of last six games vs Wake Forest, winning last two in this gym by 3-22 points; Hokies won last four games overall, are 3-2 as ACC home fave, winning at home by 15-1-4-11-6 points. ACC home favorites of 5+ points are 20-15 against the spread. Wake won its last four games; they're 3-2 as ACC road dog, losing by 1-20-21 on road.
Drexel (even) uncharacteristically made 10-17 from arc in 75-72 win vs VCU Jan 6; Dragons shoot 32.1% from arc for year. Drexel won six of last eight games, are 3-2 as CAA road dog, losing away games by 4-23-3-11 points (3-4 SU). VCU lost last two games, blowing halftime leads of 13-8 pts. Single digit home favorites are 17-21 vs spread in CAA games.
Home side won seven of last eight Texas Tech-Baylor games; Raiders are 0-4 in last four trips to Waco, losing by 11-3-6-12 points. Tech is 2-3 as Big 12 road underdog, losing away games by 29-26-12-15 points, with a win at Oklahoma. Baylor is 3-2 as home favorite, winning in Waco by 2-31-13-21. Double digit home favorites are 6-8 vs spread in Big 12 games.
Drake (+12.5) won 70-64 in Carbondale Jan 9, making 15-17 from foul line; Bulldogs lost last four games after a 6-1 run, but they've won four of last five home games, are 1-1 as MVC home favorite. Southern Illinois is 4-0-1 vs spread in last five games, but lost last three on road, by 3-3-5. Home favorites of less than 3 points are 4-9 vs spread in MVC games.
Northern Iowa C Elgseder, 2nd-leading scorer, is suspended (DUI) here, big blow for UNI squad that had 6-game win streak snapped Saturday at Bradley. Panthers are 4-3 as MVC home favorite. Creighton is 1-4 as an MVC road dog, losing away games by 6-12-9-5-18 pts (2-5 SU). Home favorites of more than 9 points are 7-10 vs spread in MVC games.
Green Bay (+6.5) lost 64-50 at Cleveland State Jan 22, making just 1-8 on arc; Vikings shot 52%, 7-16 from arc. CSU won six of its last seven, is 2-4 as Horizon home favorite, winning at home by 5-7-14-1-8-9 pts. Green Bay is 2-3-1 as Horizon road underdog, losing on road by 23-20-14-13. Home faves of 3 or less points are 3-8 vs spread in Horizon.
Michigan (-13) held Iowa to 31% from floor, 4-24 from arc in 60-46 win over Hawkeyes Jan 30; Wolverines are 2-4 on Big 11 road, 2-2 as Big 11 favorite- they didn't play this weekend, Iowa did. Hawkeyes lost five of last six games, are 4-3 as Big 11 home dog, losing home games by 11-12-18-8-8 points. Home dogs of 4 or less are 6-3 vs spread in Big 11 games.
Rutgers/DePaul split last four meetings; both teams played Sunday, as Knights upset Georgetown, but Rutgers is 0-6 on Big East road, 1-5 as Road dog, losing away games by 34-13-9-25-23-16 points. Blue Demons covered six of last seven games, but lost last six SU, are 1-11 in league. Big East home favorites of less than 7 points are 8-16 vs spread.
Georgia Tech raced out to 29-9 lead, blew lead, then won 73-71 at North Carolina Jan 16 (+6.5); Jackets lost three of last four games, but won last four home games, by 4-2-21-2 points (1-3 as ACC favorite). ACC home favorites of 5+ points are 20-15 against the spread. Tar Heels lost seven of last nine games, are 0-4 against spread as an ACC underdog.
Mississippi State won last three games vs Kentucky; dogs covered last four in series. Bulldogs are 5-0 at home in SEC, 2-2 as SEC dog. Wildcats won last five games since 68-62 loss at So Carolina, winning games by 5 at Auburn, 12 at Florida, 26 at LSU. Home underdogs of 3 or less points are 1-4 vs spread in SEC games. Much bigger game for host Bulldogs.
Tips and Trends
Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Virginia Tech Hokies
Demon Deacons: Wake Forest has won 4 straight games, including an impressive double digit SU win against nationally ranked Georgia Tech in their last game. To no surprise, Wake Forest is nationally ranked again, at #23 in the nation. The Demon Deacons will have their work cut out for them today, considering they've lost 5 of the past 6 meetings SU with Virginia Tech. Wake Forest is 6-4 both SU and ATS on the road this season. Wake Forest is 4-3 ATS as the listed underdog this season, including 4-1 ATS as a single digit underdog this season. The Demon Decons have averaged nearly 83 PPG over their past 2 games. That broke a streak of 4 consecutive games under 70 PTS for Wake Forest. The Demon Decons are 8-3 ATS since the start of 2010. F Al-Farouq Aminu is easily one of the best players in the nation as he averages team highs of 16.5 PPG and 10.9 RPG this season. G Ishmael Smith averages 13 PPG and 6.1 APG this season.
Wake Forest is 4-0 ATS last 4 games vs. a team with a winning SU record.
Under is 6-1 last 7 road games.
Key Injuries - G Konner Tucker (personal) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 67 (SIDE of the Day)
Hokies (-5, O/U 134): Virginia Tech might very well be the best team nobody knows about, as they are 20-4 SU this season. Virginia Tech has won 7 of their past 8 games, including 2 conference road wins SU. The Hokies are a perfect 13-0 SU at home this season. Despite their perfect record at home, the Hokies are only 4-4 ATS this season at home. The Hokies have only played 5 games at home as a single digit favorite, going 3-2 ATS in that scenario. All 5 of those contests have come in their 5 most recent home games in conference play. The Hokies have scored 70 PTS or more in 5 of their past 6 games. G Malcolm Delaney leads 3 different Hokies averaging double digits in PTS this season. Delaney averages 19.7 PPG and a team high 4.2 APG this season. Delaney makes his living at the free throw line, shooting 85% on 8 attempts per game this season. Defensively, the Hokies have limited their past 3 opponents to fewer than 60 PTS.
Hokies are 8-3 ATS last 11 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.
Under is 4-0 last 4 home games.
Key Injuries - C Geno Swindle (knee) is out.
F Allan Chaney (shoulder) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 66
Kentucky Wildcats at Mississippi St. Bulldogs
Wildcats (-3, O/U 143): Kentucky continues to prove their lone loss this season was a fluke, as they've responded with 5 consecutive double digit wins SU since that loss. Kentucky is 24-1 SU this season, and ranked #2 in the nation. The Wildcats are 7-1 SU and 5-3 ATS in both true road games and neutral court settings this season. Today's game represents the smallest the Wildcats have been favored by all season. Kentucky is 5-2 ATS as a single digit favorite this season. The Wildcats have alternated ATS wins and losses in every game of 2010 thus far. Kentucky has scored their 2nd lowest back to back point totals over their past 2 contests. F DeMarcus Cousins is likely to bounce back from a season low 5 PTS in his last game. Cousins averages 15.9 PPG and a team high 10.2 RPG this season. PG John Wall leads the Wildcats with 17 PPG and 6.4 APG this season. Kentucky has more turnovers than assists in their past 8 league games.
Wildcats are 9-4 ATS last 13 games vs. a team with a winning percentage over .600.
Under is 8-2 last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage greater than .600.
Key Injuries - None.
PROJECTED SCORE: 68 (UNDER - Total of the Day)
Bulldogs: Mississippi St. will get a stern test tonight at home, battling the #2 team in the country in Kentucky. Luckily this game is at home for the Bulldogs, as they are 12-1 SU at home this season. That lone loss was in their 1st game of the season back in early November. The Bulldogs have only had 3 opponents stay within single digits of them at home. The Bulldogs are 4-3-1 ATS in home games this season, with today marking the 1st time this season the Bulldogs will be the listed home underdog. The Bulldogs are 3-2 ATS as the listed underdog this season. With a SU win tonight, Mississippi St. will have beaten Kentucky 4 consecutive times for the 1st time in school history. The Bulldogs average 73 PPG this season, but have been held under that total in 7 of their past 8 games. G Ravern Johnson leads the Bulldogs with 13.7 PPG this season. C Jarvis Varnardo averages 13.3 PPG, 11.3 RPG, and 5 BPG in an All American type season.
Bulldogs are 8-3 ATS last 11 games vs. a team with a winning percentage over .600.
Under is 7-2 last 9 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage greater than .600.
Key Injuries - G Ravern Johnson (nose) is probable.
G Twany Beckham (hip) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 67