Wednesday's Wagers
By Brian Edwards
There isn’t much time left for bubble teams looking for breakout wins. Likewise, candidates for high seeds can’t afford any more hiccups if they want to be slotted appropriately on Selection Sunday.
Miami probably needs to win out, starting with Wednesday’s home game against Duke. As for the Blue Devils, they are pushing toward an ACC regular-season title and No. 1 seed in the conference tournament.
Texas and Missouri will be looking to improve their respective profiles when they collide in a key Big 12 matchup. Then later on the West coast, bettors have a WAC showdown on ESPN2 between La. Tech and Utah St. Let’s break down these contests and also tackle a few other topics.
**Duke at Miami**
Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Duke as an eight-point favorite.
Since losing at North Carolina St. on Jan. 20, Duke (21-4 straight up, 16-8 against the spread) has won six in a row against ACC foes, compiling a 5-1 spread record in the process. Of course, there was a loss at Georgetown on Jan. 30, but the Blue Devils are now 9-2 in ACC play with a 1 ½-game edge over Maryland, Wake Forest and Va. Tech in the conference standings.
Mike Krzyzewski’s team was dominant in Saturday’s showdown against Maryland, capturing a 77-56 home win as a 9 ½-point ‘chalk’ at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Brian Zoubek erupted for 16 points, 17 rebounds and a pair of blocked shots for the winners. Jon Scheyer added a game-high 22 points on 3-of-4 shooting from 3-point range.
Miami (17-8 SU, 9-7-1 ATS) has lost seven of its last nine games to most likely fall out of consideration for an NCAA Tournament at-large bid. Frank Haith’s team is coming off a 74-66 loss Saturday at Clemson, although it did hook up its backers with a winner as a 9 ½-point road underdog. The Hurricanes were undone by atrocious free-throw shooting (7-of-17 for 41.2%), while the Tigers went to the charity stripe and converted 25-of-31 attempts.
UM has won 11 of its 12 home games this year, compiling a 2-2-1 spread record. This is the Hurricanes’ first game as home underdogs this year.
Miami has won all 14 of its non-conference games, but the ‘Canes are an abysmal 3-8 in ACC play. They finish the regular season with four of their last five games at home.
The ‘over’ is 8-6-1 overall for the ‘Canes, but they have seen the ‘under’ go 3-2 in their home games with a total.
Duke has watched the ‘under’ cash in three straight games and go 13-11 overall this season.
The ‘over’ has hit in six consecutive head-to-head meetings between these ACC adversaries.
ESPN will provide the telecast at 7:00 p.m. Eastern.
**Texas at Missouri**
LVSC opened Missouri (18-7 SU, 11-8 ATS) as a one-point favorite.
Texas (20-5 SU, 9-12 ATS) stopped the bleeding momentarily by trashing Nebraska 91-51 Saturday as a 14-point home favorite. The Longhorns had lost five of their seven previous games before blasting the Cornhuskers. Freshman guard Avery Bradley busted loose for a game-high 25 points, while Damion James produced 13 points, nine rebounds and five assists.
Mike Anderson’s squad dropped a heartbreaker Saturday at Baylor, as the Bears captured a 64-62 victory. However, Missouri took the cash as a four-point road underdog. Zaire Taylor had a team-high 15 points in defeat.
Missouri has won 15 of its 16 home games, posting a 7-4 spread record in the process.
Texas is mired in a miserable 2-10 ATS slide.
Missouri has won back-to-back games against the Longhorns, including a 69-65 win in Austin last season as a 4 ½-point road underdog. However, the ‘Horns are 9-2 ATS in the last 11 head-to-head encounters.
The ‘under’ is 5-1-1 in the last six head-to-head meetings between these schools.
The ‘over’ is 9-8 overall for the Tigers this year, 6-3 in their home assignments. Meanwhile, Texas has watched the ‘over’ cash at a 12-8 overall clip.
Tip-off is scheduled for 9:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2.
**Louisiana Tech at Utah State**
LVSC opened Utah St. (20-6 SU, 14-8 ATS) as an eight-point ‘chalk.’
La. Tech (20-5 SU, 10-9-1 ATS) has been burning the pockets of its backers recently, compiling a 0-6-1 ATS record in its last seven games. The Bulldogs are off a 66-60 home win Saturday over Hawaii, as the Warriors easily took the cash as 15 ½-point underdogs.
Utah St. has won 10 in a row, going 9-1 ATS during this span. The Aggies own a 13-1 SU record and an 8-3 ATS ledger this season. Their lone home loss came to St. Mary’s by a 68-63 count back on Dec. 5.
Steve Morrill’s team is gunning for a share of the WAC regular-season title for the fourth straight season. The Aggies are 10-2 in league play, leading New Mexico St. (9-3) and La. Tech (8-3) by the slimmest of margins.
Will either of these teams garner at at-large invite to the NCAA Tournament if it doesn’t win the WAC Tourney? Utah State’s chances are much better, as evidenced by its RPI rating of 43. Meanwhile, La. Tech has a RPI of 76 with just three of its wins coming against schools in the Top-100 RPI (Murray St., Nevada and Utah St.).
La. Tech is 2-3 SU and 2-2-1 ATS as a road underdog. Meanwhile, Utah St. is 2-1 ATS as a single-digit home ‘chalk.’
When these schools met in Ruston on Jan. 4, La. Tech cruised to an easy 82-60 victory as a 1 ½-point home favorite. Magnum Rolle paced the winners with 21 points and 14 rebounds.
The ‘under’ is 11-9 overall for the Aggies, 5-5 in their home outings. Meanwhile, the ‘over’ is 9-7 overall for the Bulldogs.
Utah St. will host Wichita St. at midnight Eastern late Saturday night in an intriguing BracketBuster matchup.
ESPN2 will have television coverage at 11:05 p.m. Eastern.
vegasinsider.com
Game of the day: Boilermakers at Buckeyes
By Sean Murphy
Big Ten showdown
It’ll be a battle for Big Ten supremacy when Purdue and Ohio State, arguably the conference’s two top teams, throw down in Columbus on Wednesday.
Ohio State was a surprise winner in the teams’ first meeting this season, earning a 70-66 decision as a 9-point road underdog back on Jan. 12. The win was particularly satisfying for the Buckeyes after the Boilermakers defeated them in the final of last year’s Big Ten Tournament.
Despite that most recent result, the home side has still dominated this series in the regular season, taking four of the last five matchups.
From a pointspread perspective, the underdog owns a 4-1-1 ATS edge over the last six meetings in this series.
Defense first
Ohio State has really stepped up its defensive play during its current six-game winning streak.
The Buckeyes have held each of their last six opponents to 63 points or less. They’ve been particularly sharp during their last three games, allowing 58, 52, and 53 points. It should come as no surprise that the under cashed in each of those three contests and has gone 11-6 in their last 17 games overall.
Even after back-to-back road wins (and covers), now is not the time for the Buckeyes to relax. After facing fourth-ranked Purdue on Wednesday, they’ll take on No. 11 Michigan State on Sunday.
Coming to a ‘Boil’
Purdue has one-upped Ohio State by posting seven consecutive victories.
The Boilermakers’ only three losses this season came in succession back in mid-January.
Since opening the season with a 5-3-1 ATS record, the Boilermakers have gone 6-9 ATS over their last 15 lined games.
Purdue has been listed as the underdog only once this season, and the result was a dominating 76-64 win over Michigan State last Tuesday.
Diebler ready to go
Buckeyes' guard Jon Diebler injured his wrist in Sunday’s win over Illinois, but will be in the starting lineup versus Purdue.
"It was not broken," Matta said. "We X-rayed it when we got back and then they did another X-ray and the X-ray was negative. Everything is full go."
Diebler had a taped wrist during Monday's practice and coach Thad Matta said that hindrance did affect his shooting.
Diebler scored 18 points in Sunday’s win and is averaging 12.7 points per game for the Buckeyes this season. He has connected on 77 attempts from downtown and is hitting 3-pointers at a 44 percent clip this season.
Trends and things
Purdue has had a tough time stringing together ATS wins, as evidenced by its 4-12-1 ATS mark in its last 17 games following a pointspread cover.
The Boilermakers also own an ugly 2-5 ATS record in their last seven lined games against winning opponents.
The under has cashed at a 13-6 clip in Ohio State’s last 19 games against Big Ten opposition.
However, the over is a perfect 6-0 in the Buckeyes’ last six home games against opponents that own a winning road record.
(4) Purdue (21-3, 11-12-1 ATS) at (9) Ohio State (20-6, 13-13 ATS)
Two surging teams, both in contention for the Big Ten regular-season title, square off when the Buckeyes host Purdue at Value City Arena.
Ohio State has won six in a row (3-3 ATS) since falling at Big East power West Virginia on Jan. 23. The Buckeyes are coming off a pair of road routs, dumping Indiana 69-52 last Wednesday as a 10½-point favorite, then cooling off Illinois 72-53 Saturday as a two-point chalk. In fact, OSU has won its last five games by double digits, averaging 73.8 ppg on sterling 51.9 percent shooting, while allowing just 57.6 ppg on 41.9 percent shooting.
Purdue’s three losses came back-to-back-to-back from Jan. 9-16, but it has since notched seven consecutive wins (4-3 ATS), including a 63-40 defensive gem against Iowa on Saturday, cashing as a huge 19½-point home favorite. The Boilermakers held the Hawkeyes to just 29.8 percent shooting (14 of 47). Over the past five games, Purdue has outscored opponents by 12.4 ppg (68.6.-56.4), shooting 48.2 percent from the field and allowing just 36 percent shooting.
Ohio State dealt Purdue the second of its three losses, rallying for a 70-65 victory as a nine-point road pup in West Lafayette on Jan. 12 to cash for the third time in the last four series meetings. The Buckeyes have owned this rivalry lately, going 14-4-1 ATS in the last 19 clashes, including 6-2-1 ATS in Columbus. The underdog is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings.
The Buckeyes are on ATS surges of 5-1 against winning teams and 4-1 at home against teams with a winning road record. Conversely, the Boilermakers are in ATS ruts of 4-12-1 following a spread-cover, 2-5 against winning teams and 16-36-2 in Wednesday outings.
The over is 8-3 in Ohio State’s last 11 games following an spread-cover and 6-0 at home against teams with a winning road record, and Purdue is on “over” runs of 5-0 on the highway and 21-6 in roadies against teams with a winning home mark. However, the under is 13-6 in Ohio State’s last 19 Big Ten starts and 5-2 in the Boilermakers’ last seven on Wednesday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OHIO STATE
(6) Duke (21-4, 16-8 ATS) at Miami, Fla. (17-8, 9-7-1 ATS)
The Blue Devils, in pursuit of their fifth consecutive win, head to South Beach for an ACC contest with Miami at the BankUnited Center.
Duke has won four in a row and six of its last seven (5-2 ATS), with all the victories coming in conference play, including Saturday’s 77-56 wipeout of Maryland as a 9½-point home chalk. Five of those six wins have come by double digits, and for the season, the Blue Devils are averaging 80.5 ppg (12th in the nation) while allowing 62.3 ppg. They also have one of the stingiest perimeter defenses, allowing opponents to make just 27.8 percent of their shots from beyond the three-point arc (fourth).
After a torrid 15-1 start, the Hurricanes have gone 2-7 SU in its last nine games (3-5-1 ATS). On Saturday, Miami went to Clemson and lost 74-66 but got the cash as a 9½-point pup. On the year, the ‘Canes have averaged 71.6 ppg, but it has scored 66 or less in its last four games and seven of its last nine. That said, six of those seven were on the road; at home, the Hurricanes average 75 ppg while allowing just 60.0.
The home team has won the last three meetings in this rivalry, with Miami going 2-0-1 ATS. Last February, Duke eked out a 78-75 overtime win, but the Hurricanes covered as a hefty 14-point underdog, and two years ago in Miami, the ‘Canes won a 96-95 shootout catching 6½ points. Miami is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings, all as a ‘dog, and the road team is also on a 3-1-1 ATS run.
The Blue Devils are on ATS upswings of 10-4 overall, 5-1 in the ACC, 4-1 on Wednesday and 10-4 against winning teams. The Hurricanes are on a modest 3-1-1 ATS run overall (all in the ACC and all against winning teams), but they are also on a 1-5-1 ATS skid following a pointspread win.
Both Duke and Miami have topped the total in six straight games against winning teams. However, the Blue Devils are on “under” streaks of 5-2 overall, 4-1 after a SU win, 12-4 on Wednesday, 25-9 in conference play and 24-10 after a spread-cover. The under is also 7-3 in Miami’s last 10 home games and 5-0 in its last five after an ATS victory. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has gone high in the last six clashes overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DUKE and OVER
(15) Texas (20-5, 9-12 ATS) at Missouri (18-7, 11-8 ATS)
Texas, aiming to regain some consistency, makes the trek to Columbia for a Big 12 battle with the Tigers at Mizzou Arena.
Since starting the season 17-0 and ascending to No. 1 in the country, the Longhorns have lost five of their last eight games and gone just 2-6 ATS in that stretch. On Saturday, though, they blasted Nebraska 91-51 as a 14-point home favorite to end a 1-3 SU and ATS skid. Rick Barnes’ troops are narrowly outscoring road opponents, averaging 77.4 ppg and giving up 75.1.
Missouri put together a nine-game winning streak to firm up its record by mid-January, but has since gone a middling 4-4 SU and ATS, all in Big 12 play. On Saturday at Baylor, the Tigers fell just short 64-62, but covered as a four-point pup. Mizzou is 15-1 at home this year, averaging a whopping 85.6 ppg on 48.5 percent shooting, while allowing just 61.7 ppg on 38.3 percent shooting.
Missouri has gone 2-0 SU and ATS the past two seasons against Texas, winning 69-65 last year as a 4½-point road ‘dog and 97-84 two years ago as a one-point home pup. Those two wins followed an 8-0 SU and ATS tear by the Longhorns, who are 9-2 ATS in the last 11 clashes overall and 4-1 ATS on their last five trips to Columbia. The chalk has covered in five of the last seven in this rivalry.
The Longhorns are 5-2 ATS in their last seven starts following a spread-cover, but their pointspread streaks spiral downward from there, including 2-10 overall, 1-6 on the road, 0-7 after a SU win, 1-5 on Wednesday, 2-9 against winning teams and 6-19-1 in the Big 12. On the flip side, the Tigers are on ATS surges of 22-8 at home, 16-7 in the Big 12 and 4-0 after a SU loss, though they are in an 0-4 ATS funk following a spread-cover.
Texas is on a bundle of “over” runs, including 5-2 overall, 8-2 after a spread-cover, 5-2 after a SU win and 6-2 on the highway, but the under for the ‘Horns is on a 5-1-1 stretch against winning teams. The under for Mizzou is on upticks 5-1-1 against winning teams, 5-1 at home against teams with a winning road record and 9-4 in Big 12 competition, but the Tigers sport “over” streaks of 4-1 on Wednesday and 4-1 following a SU loss.
Finally, in this rivalry, the under is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MISSOURI
NCAA News and Notes
Wednesday, February 17
Information on the best of Wednesday's college basketball games........
Ohio State (+9) won 70-66 at Purdue Jan 12, after being down 12 at the half, gane thst started Buckeyes on current 9-1 run- they're 4-2 as Big 11 home favorite, winning at home by 25-9-20-22-13-10 points. Purdue is on 7-game win streak; they're 1-1 as a Big 11 underdog. Underdogs are 10-7 vs spread in Big 11 games where spread is 4 or less points.
Providence lost last five games, allowing 86 ppg; they're 1-3 as Big East home underdog, losing home games by 22-4-3-9 points (beat UConn and Rutgers). Friars lost last five games vs West Virginia, with four of wins by 12+ points. Mountaineers are 4-2 as road favorite in conference play. Big East home underdogs of less than 8 points are 6-11 vs spread.
Florida State won six of last seven games vs Virginia; home side is 8-2 in last 10 series games. Cavs lost last three games by 3-19-6 points; they're 3-2 as ACC home favorite. Seminoles lost three of last four road games; they're 0-5 in ACC if they allow more than 66 points. Cavs scored 60.3 in last four. ACC home favorites of 3 or less points are 7-4 vs spread.
Duke won seven of last eight games vs Miami, but last two games were decided by total of four points; Blue Devils won two of last three visits here, winning by 9-22 points. Miami lost seven of last nine games; they are 3-1 at home in ACC, losing only to BC by 4. Duke is 2-3 as a road favorite. ACC home underdogs are 5-3 against the spread this season.
Marshall (+7) lost 73-69 at Tulsa two weeks ago after leading at half by 9; Tulsa outscored them 25-13 from foul line. Thundering Herd is 3-2 at home in league, losing to UAB/Memphis by combined total of 5 points. Tulsa is 0-7 vs spread in last seven games, losing two of last three away games. C-USA home favorites of 6 or less points are 5-8 vs spread.
Home side won last seven Seton Hall-St John's games; Pirates lost three in row here by 11-3-5 points; favorites covered last six in series. Seton Hall is 0-5 on Big East road, losing by 8-12-2-10-25 points. Road teams are 27-15 vs spread in Big East games where spread is less than 7 points Red Storm is 3-3 at home in Big East, beating Cincy/DePaul/Louisville.
UAB (-12) held off Southern Miss 57-56 in first meeting Jan 20, in game they trailed by 7 at half; Blazers lost three of last four games, are 4-1 on C-USA road, losing by 10 at Memphis. USM won five of last six games, covered eight of last nine- they won last three home games. Road teams are 11-3 vs spread in C-USA games where spread is less than 4 points. .
Georgia (+6.5) shot 56% for night, 7-12 from arc in 78-63 thumping of Tennessee Jan 23; Dawgs are 6-2 as SEC underdog, 3-2 on road, losing by 8-3-16-1-19 points. Tennessee lost last two games, is 1-6 vs spread in last seven, 2-3 vs spread as an SEC home favorite. Double digit home favorites are 4-8 against the spread in SEC games this season.
Maryland is playing third game in five nights after beating Virginia by 19 in makeup game Monday; Terps hammered NC State 88-64 Jan 23 (-9) Jan 23, shooting 54% from floor, holding Wolfpack to 36%. ACC home underdogs are 5-3 against the spread this season. NC State lost last six games; they're 5-4 as an ACC underdog, 2-1 as a home underdog.
Missouri upset Texas last two years, but Tigers are just 4-4 in last eight games-- they're 4-1 at home in Big 12, losing by 3 to A&M. Texas is 2-8 vs spread in Big 12 games, 0-2 as an underdog this year. Longhorns split four Big 12 road games, losing at K-State/Oklahoma, winning at Iowa St, Oklahoma State. Big 12 home faves of 4 or less points are 4-6 vs spread.
Saint Louis won last four games, all by 4 or less points; they were down 14 at half in last game vs Dayton, rallied to win in double OT; Billikens are 4-0 at home in A-14, with three wins by 5 or less points Home dogs of less than 5 points are 1-8 vs spread in A-14 games. Rhode Island lost last two games; they're 2-6 against spread in their last eight games.
Arkansas won five of last six games, winning last three at home by 5-3-35 points; home side won five of last six South Carolina-Arkansas tilts. Gamecocks lost last four road games, by 9-2-26-5 points; they're 2-3 as an SEC road dog. Arkansas is 2-1 as an SEC home favorite. SEC home favorites of 7 or less points are 8-13 against the spread.
Utah State (+1) got waxed 82-60 at Louisiana Tech Jan 4, as Tech made 53% from floor, 7-14 from arc, but State is 10-0 since- they're 5-0 as a WAC home favorite, winning home games by 44-22-19-18-11 points. Tech is 0-6-1 vs spread in last seven games; their WAC losses are by 11, 14, 2 points. WAC home favorites of 11+ points are 6-5 vs spread.
Tips and Trends
Texas Longhorns at Missouri Tigers
Longhorns: Texas is 15th in the nation with a SU record of 20-5. That sounds great until you realize that the Longhorns have lost all 5 games this season in their past 8 games. Texas will likely have revenge on their mind today, as they haven't beaten Missouri since the 2007 season. Texas is 7-3 SU and 4-6 ATS in both true road contests and in neutral court settings this season. The Longhorns are 0-2 SU and ATS as the listed underdog this season. Texas is 2-10 ATS since the start of 2010, clearly a rough stretch for the Longhorns. F Damion James is the true leader of this Texas squad, both in his on court play and leadership off the court. James leads the Longhorns in both scoring and rebounding with 17.8 and 10.8 per game respectively this season. James will be playing in his 134th consecutive game for Texas tonight, tying the school record. G Avery Bradley is averaging 15.1 PPG during conference play this season.
Texas is 1-8 ATS last 9 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.
Over is 11-4 last 15 games as a road underdog.
Key Injuries - None. G Shawn Williams (ankle) is out.
G Varez Ward (knee) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 72
Tigers (-2, O/U 153): Missouri has been rather average of late, going 4-4 SU their past 4 games. No doubt the Tigers play in a brutal Big 12 Conference, arguably the strongest conference in the nation. Missouri is 6-4 SU in conference play this season, and are 18-7 SU for the entire season. Missouri is dominant at home, winning 15 of their 16 games this season. Overall, the Tigers have won 32 of their past 33 games SU at home, a streak that goes back to the 2008 season. The Tigers are 7-4 ATS in home games this season, with today representing the smallest the Tigers have been favored by all season. Missouri is 6-3 ATS as a single digit favorite this season. The Tigers have alternated ATS wins and losses over their past 9 games. Missouri has scored 70 or more PTS in 15 of their 16 home games this season. G Kim English leads the Tigers in scoring, averaging 14.8 PPG this season.
Tigers are 7-0 ATS last 7 games as a home favorite up to 6.5 points.
Under is 6-1 last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage greater than .600.
Key Injuries - None.
PROJECTED SCORE: 81 (SIDE of the Day)