NCAA Recap and Look Ahead
By Doug Upstone
The NCAA Tournament has again laid waste of casual sports fans, fanatics and sports bettors. The almost six million brackets that were filled out at ESPN contests are all busted. (One person had 15 of 16)
Starting with Morehead State and ending with Florida State, it was another wild ride on the March Madness rollercoaster.
Big East upheaval - From Charles Barkley to many around the country, the smirky grins were seen coast to coast as only two of the original Big East teams made the Sweet 16. Oddly enough Connecticut and Marquette had .500 records in league play.
Let's take the more adult viewpoint for a change and go with the idea that the Big East probably did deserve to have as many bids as they received, but continual hype of this league having so many games broadcast on ESPN turned a collection of good teams into something more than they deserved. If you recall back in early November, the general consensus among basketball experts was the conference might be down a little, with less great teams and more balance. In the end that assessment was on the nose.
ACC snobs thrilled - After hearing all year the Atlantic Coast Conference is not the league it was four or more years ago, the ACC holds three of the positions left in the tournament and in case anybody asks, that is one more than the Big East earned. Duke and North Carolina is no real surprise, however Florida State certainly was thanks to their unbelievably tenacious defense and improved shooting in the tournament.
Mountain West standing tall - San Diego State and BYU were thought to be two of the best teams in college basketball all season and they proved it by moving to the Sweet 16. Steve Fisher has shown he can still recruit like he did in bringing together the Fab 5 and Jimmer Fredette is the rock star of the tournament, being easily recognized by having what all superstars have, one name recognition. Mention "Jimmer" and everyone knows who you are talking about.
Coaching still matters - You are not going to win a NCAA men's basketball tournament without talent, however coaching matters more than what these gentlemen are given credit for. During the NBA playoffs, we can plainly see what coaching adjustments are made in as series of games vs. one opponent and the head coaches wisdom or lack of is apparent.
In the Big Dance it is less easy to find because the games are scattered over more than one network and are witnessed by fewer eyeballs.
Belmont was a popular upset pick over Wisconsin as Bo Ryan's squad had been poor all season defending the three-ball, a specialty of Belmont's. But Ryan made it a point of emphasis before the game and Badgers players were brilliant in defending 19 feet away (6-23 for Belmont) from the basket.
Butler's Brad Steven's has become known for identifying the strength of opposing team and either taking it away or severely limiting its effectiveness. Old Dominion was known for rebounding and crashing the offensive glass, but the Bulldogs actually has more boards than the Monarchs (27-26). In the gargantuan upset of Pittsburgh, Steven's focused on stopping the Panthers backcourt scoring and Aston Gibbs and Brad Wanamaker totaled just 19 points.
The players still have to execute the game plans; nonetheless coaches have to give their players a chance to win.
By the numbers thru three rounds:
Favorites - 34-15 SU, 21-27-1 ATS
Higher seeds - 36-12, 25-22-1 ATS
Pick Games - Higher Seed - 1-2 SU & ATS
Favorites of 7.5 or more -18-2, 11-10 ATS
Favorites of 4 or less - 9-9, 7-10-1 ATS
Totals - 27-22-3 UNDER
Totals Over 140 - 9-5 UNDER
Totals Under 130 - 11-7 OVER
Looking ahead, Kansas is a prohibitive favorite to make the Final Four matched against three other seeds that have double digits assigned to them. This doesn't mean the Jayhawks are a lock and might struggle to cover, but you can't help but like their chances.
The Southeast Regional in New Orleans is a perfect setting for a melting pot of diverse teams. All four teams Florida, BYU, Wisconsin and Butler are capable of winning and advancing. The Gators have the most talent, Wisconsin and Butler play the most consistently for 40 minutes at a time and BYU has Jimmer.
Everyone will be counting on a Duke and Connecticut Elite 8 matchup in Anaheim, but will have to overcome Arizona and San Diego State who will larger fan bases.
Ohio State and Kentucky is classic matchup and you will be hearing about Al McGuire and Dean Smith before Marquette and North Carolina square off. The Buckeyes and Tar Heels conflict is the most likely last game in Newark.