NCAA Tournament Betting News and Notes

Must-See Matchups
By Antony Dinero
VegasInsider.com

Make sure you've got all the glitches worked out of your picture-in-picture.

If you don't have it, have your computer handy and keep a game streaming. In this day and age, there's no excuse for missing a great moment in the NCAA Tournament. Appreciate that you no longer have to suffer through a period where there's only one game on and cut-ins come too late, if at all, forcing you to watch after already having seen a score or heard about a dramatic finish. Oh, the humanity.

Fortunately, technology has come around, because with opening round games now part of the mix, there are even more quality matchups to look forward to in a 68-team field.

Here are the Top 10 matchups to keep an eye on before the weekend rolls around. The offerings are so good that UConn/Iowa State didn't make the cut.

10) No. 6 San Diego State vs. No. 11 N.C. State (Opening Line – N.C. State -1.5)

Steve Fisher has no Fab Five, Glen Rice or even Kawhi Leonard to throw out there, but his Aztecs still finished as co-champions of a Mountain West conference that's never been stronger. Versatile scorers Jamaal Franklin and Chase Tapley are capable of flourishing in the ACC, so N.C. State gets no break in this opener. After nearly toppling UNC in the ACC semis, the Pack's confidence has never been higher. N.C. State will have to utilize its size inside, but SDSU has chopped down bigger trees than C.J. Leslie and Richard Howell. Expect a nail-biter.

9) No. 8 Memphis vs. No. 9 Saint Louis (Opening Line – Memphis -3.5)

This rivalry dates back to pre-CUSA, when the two regularly hooked up in the oldest of the old school, Metro Conference. If Rick Majerus has his way, the programs will have higher-profile meetings down the road, as he's gone on record saying he expect to turn the Billikens into a perennial Top-10 team. Memphis has been at that level over the last decade and has the talent to make a real run in this tournament. Will Barton and Joe Jackson are elite level players and Wesley Witherspoon is shockingly playing like one. Majerus hopes to sabotage those hopes with stingy defense and a solid half court attack led by gritty forward Brian Conklin, whose job inside could be made easier if Tigers center Tarik Black's forearm is of any hindrance.

8) No. 4 Vanderbilt vs. No. 13 Harvard (Opening Line – Vanderbilt -6.5)

Kevin Stallings was emotional following his team's upset of Kentucky in the SEC Tournament final, but I'm more curious as to what expletive came out from under his breath when this pairing was announced. For Vandy's trouble of moving up a few seed lines, it earns a date with the smartest team in the field, a capable Harvard squad that spent its early days serving as Jeremy Lin's supporting cast and has since grown into the Ivy League's biggest puncher. The Crimson own wins over NCAA qualifiers FSU and Saint Joseph's, as well as NIT-bound UCF. They aren't small, as Kyle Casey, Keith Wright and freshman Steve Moundou-Missi can all really play. The Commodores better not celebrate that first SEC title too long or they're destined for a short life span. Fortunately for Vandy, Stallings knows how challenging Tommy Amaker's Harvard team will be.

7) No. 8 Creighton vs. No. 9 Alabama (Opening Line – Alabama -1.5)

Somewhere, Tony Mitchell will be somewhere watching with conflicted emotions. The athletic wingman suspended by head coach Michael Grant in February would love to be out there with his Crimson Tide teammates, but if he were, he'd have to deal with Doug McDermott. Creighton's 6-foot-8 star forward is a matchup nightmare due to his excellent footwork and supreme skill, leading his father's team to a Missouri Valley Tournament title. As the lynchpin of a veteran Blue Jays squad that has burly senior Gregory Echenique to throw JaMychal Green, don't sleep on the MVC squad being able to hang right with one of the SEC's most athletic squads. Since it won't be Mitchell, undersized freshman Levi Randolph will see a lot of McDermott, offering no grace period in his first postseason game.

6) No. 6 UNLV vs. No. 11 Colorado (Opening Line – UNLV -4.5)

The Mountain West has been thumping its chest that it had a much better year than the Pac-12, an argument that has been magnified by Colorado State getting an at-large bid ahead of regular season champ Washington. The Buffs won the conference tourney in their first year after arriving from the Big 12 thanks to double-double machine Andre Roberson and freshman swingman Spencer Dinwiddie, but will have to be on their toes to keep from getting hammered by the highly-regarded Runnin' Rebels. If UNLV gets rolling, it could deliver another black eye to the Pac-12 in a season filled with them. If it shoots itself in the foot with turnovers and missed free throws, they might wind up as one of the tournament's biggest disappointments. Mix in the conference drama and you've got great television.

5) No. 5 New Mexico vs. No. 12 Long Beach State (Opening Line – New Mexico -5)

Casper Ware opened the eyes of many pros who were trying to stay sharp out in L.A. summer leagues during the NBA lockout. Clearly, his confidence took off, since he rode the momentum to his second Big West Player of the Year award and often dwarfed opposing guards. So, yeah, Kendall Williams and Demetrius Walker need to be concerned. All of the Lobos should be, because second-leading scorer Larry Anderson is coming back after sitting out the conference tournament and Dan Monson is certainly capable of finding a few weaknesses in the Mountain West champs. Considering the Beach has battled Kansas, North Carolina, San Diego State, Louisville, Xavier, Pitt and Kansas State, this moment won't be too big for them.

4) No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 10 Xavier (Opening Line – Notre Dame -2.5)

At one point this season, Xavier looked like a Final Four team. In short spurts, they exhibited similar brilliance in the A-10 Tournament, but couldn't handle Andrew Nicholson in the final. Notre Dame, the ultimate overachievers, again took off after losing its leading scorer, coming together following the early-season loss of Tim Abromaitis. It will be hard to guess who shows up here, but two of the oldest Catholic universities in the country are certain to put on a great show. Watching Tu Holloway and Mark Lyons square off against younger up-and-comers Eric Atkins and Jerian Grant is worth the price of admission alone.

3) No. 6 Cincinnati vs. No. 11 Texas (Opening Line – Cincinnati -2.5)

The Bearcats reached the Big East Tournament final and have been far more consistent offensively down the stretch, winning nine of their last 12. Will having to wait until Friday to get into the mix quell that momentum? Texas is certainly formidable and carries in a healthy cogniscience of its mortality since it nearly missed the dance altogether. The Longhorns, among the last teams in, pack a lethal go-to scorer in J'Covan Brown and plenty of big bodies up front that can bang with Yancey Gates, so this game should be extremely competitive.

2) No. 7 Gonzaga vs. No. 10 West Virginia (Opening Line – West Virginia -1)

No need to ask where the beef is. Robert Sacre doesn't see the likes of Deniz Kilicli very often and neither are into the feeling out thing. Look for them to bang their husky 6-10 frames into one another like sumo wrestlers from the jump. It will be up to talented sophomore Elias Harris to keep the Big East's scorer and rebounder, Kevin Jones, from giving the Mountaineers a pulse. It's worth noting that tape of them going up against one another in such a huge game will be must-watch material for every NBA scouting department. Bob Huggins and Mark Few, too? This might not be one of the crispest games of the early rounds, but could be one of the most hotly-contested. The coaches demand it.

1) No. 5 Wichita State vs. No. 12 VCU (Opening Line – Wichita State -5.5)

With people openly wondering who steps up as this tournament's Butler or VCU, Wichita State gets to volunteer by beating last year's surprise Final Four crasher. Shaka Smart lost a few key pieces, but has reloaded with a deep team that throws the kitchen sink at you nightly, pressuring and defending while thriving from the perimeter. The Shockers are similar, only that they have gotten even more out of that recipe this season than the reloading Rams have. There's a reason Wichita State, with Toure' Murry potentially serving as the 2012 Joey Rodriguez, is the highest-rated mid-major in the field. VCU, which played in the First Four last year and was almost left out, could care less what the committee thinks. The Rams won their way via the Colonial Athletic tournament and have their sights set on shocking the world again. This game is what the NCAAs are all about. Broaden your horizons.

Best Round 1 Betting Trends
By Marc Lawrence
Playbook.com

The 2012 NCAA Tournament has arrived and with it a final chance to pad our bankrolls for the season.

To make that shining moment happen, let’s take a look at how teams in this event have fared most recently in the past. Here are notes from the 2012 PLAYBOOK NCAA Tournament guide. Note all results are since 1991 unless noted otherwise.

NCAA TOURNEY – MOST RECENT TRENDS

• No. 1 seeds are 84-0 SU (48-35-1 ATS) vs. No. 16 seeds

• No. 2 seeds are 80-4 SU (35-45-4 ATS) vs. No. 15 seeds

• A No. 12 seed failed to beat a No. 5 seed (5-7 SU & 8-4 ATS last three years) only twice since 1988.

• Favorites of seven or more points who are 3-0 SU & ATS in their last 3 games are 14-28-1 ATS vs. foes off a SU win.

• Favorites of 20 or more points are 2-8 ATS vs. a foe off a SU win

• Favorites under 7 points who scored 100 points or more in their last conference tourney game are 11-2 ATS.

• Underdogs getting four or more points playing off a SU conference tourney win as a dog of six or more points are 7-27-1 ATS last 12 years.

• Dogs getting 18 or more points off double-digit ATS wins are 5-1 ATS.

• Dogs off a SU tourney win in which they allowed 80 or fewer points are 2-11 ATS.

Because it’s my belief that success in handicapping this tournament is tantamount to breaking the action down into rounds, let’s take a look at some of the more relevant and most recent trend results that have occurred in round one games:

FIRST ROUND NOTES

• No. 1 seeds favored by fewer than 25 points off back to back SU wins are 12-2 ATS.

• No. 2 seeds are 9-24-4 ATS vs. foes off a SU win.

• No. 3 seeds off a SU favorite loss are 32-1 SU & 24-8-1 ATS (10-2 last seven years).

• No. 4 seeds are 27-13 ATS when favored by fewer than nine points (11-4 last seven years).

• No. 7 seeds are 1-7 ATS vs. foes off back to back SU losses.

• No. 9 seeds are 0-4 ATS when favored by fewer than two points.

Conference tournament champs in this round (numbers all ATS)

ACC: 3-0-1, Atlantic: 10 1-4, Big Ten: 4-6, Big 12: 3-8, Big East: 5-1, Big West: 1-5, Colonial: 12-6, C-USA: 1-4, Horizon: 6-1, MAC: 6-2, Missouri Valley: 2-5, Mountain West: 3-11, Pac-12: 4-2, Sun Belt: 3-2, SEC: 1-3, WAC: 2-5, West Coast: 3-1

Best team records (SU) in this round

Purdue: 13-0, Maryland: 10-0, N Carolina: 10-0, Kansas: 5-0, UCLA: 5-0, Wisconsin: 5-0, Kentucky: 18-1, Duke: 14-1, Cincinnati 10-1

Worst team records (SU) in this round

Clemson: 0-5, New Mexico State: 0-4, Creighton: 1-5

Best team ATS records in this round

VCU: 4-0, Xavier: 6-1-2, NC State: 5-1, New Mexico: 5-1, West Virginia: 5-1, Purdue: 4-1, Washington: 4-1

Worst team ATS records in this round

Oregon: 0-6, Clemson: 0-5, Massachusetts: 0-4, Temple: 0-4, Tennessee: 1-7, Creighton: 1-5, Notre Dame: 1-4

Best conference ATS records in this round

Big Ten: 6-1, Pac-12: 8-2, Horizon: 9-3, MAC: 9-3, Colonial: 8-4, Missouri Valley: 14-7

Worst conference ATS records in this round

CUSA: 1-5, Big West: 1-4, Ivy: 3-11, Big 12: 2-7

If this is not enough to get your blood flowing then you may be seriously in need of a cardiologist. I’ll be back next week with a look at Sweet 16 and Elite Eight round action.

Big Dance Preview
By Bruce Marshall
VegasInsider.com

"If you're goin' dancin', you don't care where you bought the ticket."

-New Mexico State HC Marvin Menzies, after being asked if his Aggies team would have rather advanced to the NCAA Tourney by beating regular-season champion Nevada than winning vs. longshot La Tech in the WAC Tourney finale

Yes, Marvin Menzies and his New Mexico State Aggies were pretty excited after winning the WAC Tournament at the Orleans Hotel Arena in Las Vegas last Saturday night. As they and the other 67 Big Dance qualifiers should be as well.

After all, if there's one thing March Mayhem has taught us lately, it's that almost anything is possible. Thank Butler (twice), Virginia Commonwealth, and George Mason for allowing the likes of New Mexico State and several others to dream that they, too, could get to the Final Four.

Now, be honest, do you prefer the March Magic in hoops, or the staid BCS and bowl system of college football? (Just asking.)

We'll get to some possible "new" Butlers and Virginia Commonwealths and George Masons. For the moment, however, a quick review of the weekend and our take of developments on Selection Sunday.

For the first time in a while, we had no serious beefs with the NCAA Tourney Selection Committee on either its choice of teams (with one exception, addressed below) or their seeding. Maybe it's because we're getting pretty good at this "bracketology" stuff ourselves. We only missed on two of our projected at-large selections, with one of those the result of St. Bonaventure's mild upset win over Xavier in the Atlantic 10 finale which came after our final bracket update late Saturday night. That put the Bonnies into the field, and since we figured the Musketeers were in win or lose, that result automatically knocked out of our at-large candidates.

As it was, our only misses were Miami-Florida and Drexel, which were replaced by Cal and, effectively, the Bonnies in the final field of 68. We had Iona into one of the last at-large play-in spots and thought that Jim Larranga's Hurricanes might also get a favorable call, along with Drexel. We knew those last few picks were going to be dicey, but the chips fell mostly where we expected. Including all of the protected (one thru four) seeds, which we correctly tabbed on Sunday morning.

Still, it wouldn't be a Selection Sunday without a few bones to pick with the Committee. Although we suspect it was simply the inability of Committee Chair and Big East consultant (and former UConn AD) Jeff Hathaway to properly explain procedures and decisions that left us a bit baffled.

Such as:

1) Hathaway, like almost all past Committee chairs, dodges most questions relating to decision-making within the 10-member group. His roundabout non-answer to a very simple question from CBS's Jim Nantz regarding the Big Ten Tourney finale, and if Ohio State would have been on the top line instead of Michigan State had the Buckeyes instead won the game, would have made Mitt Romney proud. Hathaway also lost us when trying to explain Missouri's spot as the "eighth team" when seeded at the end of the second line, which shot holes in the supposed "S-curve" system in which the eighth-ranked team should have been matched up with the top tourney seed, which was Kentucky. With Hathaway admitting that Michigan State was the fourth seed and thus earning the final spot on the number one line, Mizzou was then likely the fifth overall seed, not the eighth. While going to great lengths to dodge a direct answer to one of the questions from the CBS panel regarding the Tigers, Hathaway instead botched the explanation.

Note to Committee chairs: why not simply tell the interviewers they are right once in a while with their theories, instead of acting as if information inside of the Committee room should be treated like national security directives?

2) Hathaway did a bit better when explaining the reasons behind selecting Iona instead of Drexel as one of the final at-large entries. But if what Hathaway said was true, we challenge the premise.

The reason? The Gaels were given credit for a much-tougher non-conference strength of schedule rating than the Dragons, but we are disappointed if the Committee members used that as the determining criteria, and didn't examine those slates a bit more closely. Drexel was apparently penalized heavily for scheduling games against Binghamton and St. Francis (PA), which turned out to be two of the nation's worst D-I squads, but also hit some bad luck when a potential matchup vs. Marquette in the Virgin Islands Paradise Jam in November never materialized. Meanwhile, Iona drew Big Ten Purdue and ACC Maryland in the Puerto Rico Tip-off Tourney. The Gaels did beat St. Joe's and Drexel lost to the same Hawks, but both games were in November.

And if we're talking about mid-majors "stepping up" their non-conference slates, don't show us a team that makes stops at Hofstra and William & Mary, and modestly challenges itself vs. Marshall, Richmond, Vermont, and Denver, as did Iona. Show us a team like Long Beach State, which went to Pitt, to San Diego State, to Louisville, to Kansas, to North Carolina, to Creighton, and tackled Xavier and Kansas State in the Hawaii Diamond Head Classic. Remember, Drexel has beaten the likes of Syracuse, Louisville, Temple, and Villanova in recent years, all on the road, and its giant-killer reputation has made it hard for Bruiser Flint to schedule higher-profile foes who want NO PART of the Dragons. Hardly Drexel's fault for not being able to schedule a couple of more higher-profile entries who wanted no part of the Philly bunch. That would include most of the local "Big Five" which has always viewed Drexel as a class below, with only Phil Martelli's St. Joe's brave enough to schedule Bruiser's boys this season.

Moreover, don't tell us Iona's Metro-Atlantic was anywhere near as tough as Drexel's Colonial this season. While the CAA had its weak links at the bottom of the loop, the upper and middle tier of the Colonial was much stronger and deeper than the Metro-Atlantic. Drexel's season-ending 19-game win streak ended in a narrow loss in the CAA finale vs. VCU, which advanced to the Final Four last season. Iona? Beaten soundly by Fairfield in the semifinals of the MAAC Tourney.

As we mentioned, we also had Iona in our field of 68, but we had Drexel on the safe side of the cut line, too. And if the Selection Committee used the argument of a stronger non-conference slate to make the decision between Iona and Drexel, it's a lot of hooey. The Committee was flat-out wrong if that was the criteria.

3) Elsewhere, the fascination with the Big East continues. Although we might be as guilty as the Selection Committee for granting the league such a wide berth; we had the same nine teams pegged into our field of 68 as did the Selection Committee. But it's about time we all ask ourselves if we aren't collectively overrating this loop. Only two of the record eleven entries into last year's NCAA field from the Big East advanced to the Sweet 16. And even though UConn stormed from the pack to eventually win last year's crown, few Big Dance entries were shaking at the prospect of facing Big East opposition. Don't be surprised if the Big East becomes the Big Least in March.

4) BYU? We had the Cougars into our field but in retrospect we overseeded Dave Rose's team, projecting the Cougars in the 10-11 range for the past few weeks. We suspect that the WCC connection helped BYU make the final cut this season, as the league rated highly with not only its top teams, but some other impressive wins by lesser entries in the loop (try Santa Clara, which went 0-17 in conference play, beating New Mexico and Villanova in pre-league play, and Loyola-Marymount notching several good wins, including non-conference successes vs. Saint Louis and UCLA).

5) Is there a Butler, Virginia Commonwealth, or George Mason in the house?

Maybe. Here are some stealth mid-major squads to keep an eye on this week. We exclude Murray State because everyone has been talking about the Racers since mid-January.

Virginia Commonweath...Why not the Rams again? Few teams were hotter down the stretch than VCU, which enters the Dance having won 17 of its last 18 games, with the only loss on a miracle 30-foot buzzer beater by George Mason's Sherrod Wright on Valentine's Day at Fairfax. VCU subsequently avenged that loss twice and then won a heart-stopper over aforementioned Drexel in the CAA final. Not as accomplished offensively as last year's Final Four team that could bomb from the perimeter with Joey Rodriguez or dump the ball on the blocks to Jamie Skeen, but even better on the stop end with relentless, full-court pressure "havoc" defense that unnerved Drexel in the CAA title game and is best exemplified by lightning-quick frosh G Briante Webber, one of the best pickpockets (2.2 steals pg, while averaging just 19 minutes on the floor) in the nation. The closest thing to a go-to scorer is sr. swingman Bradford Burgess (13.3 ppg), a holdover from the starting unit that caused such a stir last March, but it's the Ram pressure that can distort games. We guarantee that Wichita State HC Gregg Marshall, who drew VCU in the sub-regionals at Portland, was hoping he would see any other name than the Rams' on the 12 seed line against his team.

Belmont...Rick Byrd's Bruins have been dancing several times (this being their fifth trip), nearly knocking off Duke a few years ago, and in fact played the Blue Devils real tough in this season's opener at Durham, losing by only 1. Belmont likes to force the pace and shoot 3s (making almost nine of them pg while scoring 81.5 ppg), which gives the Bruins a puncher's chance vs. the right foe. Last year, Wisconsin proved to be the wrong foe in a 72-58 Badgers win, but let's see if Georgetown can handle the Belmont tempo led by Gs Kerron Johnson (14.1 ppg), Ian Clark (12.7 ppg), and Drew Hanlen (48% triples) that helped the Bruins post some good non-conference wins over Middle Tennessee and Marshall, and fueled the current 14-game win streak and storm through the Atlantic Sun Tourney.

New Mexico State...We want to see the looks on the faces of the Indiana Hoosiers when they look across the court at New Mexico State during warm-ups in Thursday's sub-regional action at Portland. The internationally-flavored Aggies are arguably the most physically-imposing team in the tournament, a menacing collection of athletes with plenty of scary size (6-11, 6-10, and 6-8 types on the frontline), and a couple of unique weapons in bruising 6-6 sr. F Wendell McKines (18 ppg & 10 rpg), who is comfy on the blocks or creating shots from the perimeter, and highlight-reel 6-2 Canadian frosh Daniel Mullings, a high-wire act who made the midseason departure of shooting G Christian Kabongo much easier to digest. The Ags start three seniors and a junior and also have a heady PG in sr. Hernst Laroche, another Canadian (via Montreal, French accent and all), who steadies the troops. One of the best-rebounding teams in the country (+9 rebound margin pg) and almost impossible to keep off the glass, with McKines, 6-11 Hamidu Rahman, 6-10 Tshilidzi Nephawe (via Johannesburg, South Africa) and 6-8 Bandja Sy (via Cergy, France), all capable of frightening dunks as well. But it's their voracious rebounding that intimidates. "Missed shots are like assists for them," said Hawaii HC Gib Arnold at last week's WAC Tourney. "We tried every scheme in the book to keep them off the glass, and nothing worked," said La Tech HC Michael White after losing the tourney finale by an 82-57 score. "No team in the league could keep them off the boards." Indiana has been forewarned.

Montana...The last time HC Wayne Tinkle brought his Grizzlies to the Dance, they almost pulled a major upset over New Mexico two years ago. Now they're back and confident again, led by explosive G Will Cherry, who hails from legendary McClymonds High in Oakland, prep home to the likes of Bill Russell, Frank Robinson, Paul Silas, Vada Pinson, Curt Flood, Jumpin' Joe Ellis, and 1968 Olympic 100-meter champion Jimmy Hines. Cherry (16 ppg) and 6-5 swingman Kareem Jamar (14 ppg) are a potent and versatile combo on the perimeter, and Tinkle even has a post presence in 7-0 C Derek Selvig. Beat Long Beach State at Missoula in December and enters the Dance on a 14-game win streak and winner of 20 of its last 21.

Detroit...With enough athletes to match up with almost any team in the field, the Titans are not your usual 15th-seeded entry. UD struggled early in the season as its frontline was depleted by the suspension of 6-10 former Indiana transfer C Eli Holman and season-ending knee injury to PF Nick Minnerath. In the interim, HC Ray McCallum introduced a zone defense to the mix, and Holman would return in mid-December, still coming off the bench but playing starter's minutes most nights. A potent backcourt led by coach Ray's son, "Little Ray" McCallum (15.6 ppg; could have attended any school he wished but chose to play for Pop at UD) and Chase Simon (13.5 ppg), can cause problems for a variety of foes. Nice personnel mix that seemed to gel in the recent Horizon Tourney when beating host Valpo, 70-50, in the finale. Kansas, which has lost to less-accomplished lower seeds in the past, is forewarned against Dick Vitale's former team (the court at Calhian Hall, by the way, is named after Dickie V).

Stay tuned...

Five teams that could screw over your bracket sheet
By Larry Hartstein
Covers.com

March Madness seems to be getting more unpredictable.

Two years ago, three double-digit seeds reached the Sweet 16. Last year, four double-digit seeds made it, with No. 11 VCU dancing all the way to the Final Four.

In 12 of the past 15 years, at least two double-digit seeds played on the second weekend.

Here are five double-digit seeds that could follow suit and screw up brackets everywhere:

No. 13 Davidson Wildcats (25-7)

After the Wildcats beat Kansas 80-74 in Kansas City in December, Jayhawks coach Bill Self said, “That wasn’t an upset tonight.”

Davidson is in the tournament for the first time since Stephen Curry led the 2008 Wildcats to the Elite Eight as a No. 10 seed. This team doesn’t have an NBA lottery pick, but it has SoCon player of the year De’Mon Brooks (16.0 ppg) leading an attack in which five Wildcats average in double figures. This smooth offensive club ranks 12th nationally in scoring (78.4), 15th in rebounding margin (6.7) and ninth in free-throw percentage (76.4).

No. 4 seed Louisville has bowed out in the first round two straight years. And the Cardinals can go into offensive funks. They averaged 53.3 points in their final four regular-season games before getting hot in the Big East tourney.

If Davidson pulls the “upset,” the Wildcats will face the winner of New Mexico-Long Beach State.

No. 15 Detroit Titans (22-13)

Six of Detroit’s 13 losses came early while 6-10 Eli Holman, the Indiana transfer, sat out due to suspension. The Titans blew out Valparaiso in the Horizon League championship game. They’ve got the best guard most people have never heard of: Ray McCallum, son of Detroit coach Ray McCallum.

McCallum could have played for any D-I powerhouse. He stayed home to revive his dad’s moribund program. With the tourney in sight, McCallum took his game to another level, shooting 59 percent over the last five games while collecting 22 assists and 11 steals.

No. 2 seed Kansas is a tough draw. But the Jayhawks have been known to bow out way earlier than expected. With Holman and another 6-10 senior, LaMarcus Lowe, the Titans can contain Thomas Robinson.

Aside from the Power 6 conferences, the Horizon is the only league that’s won at least one NCAA tournament game the last seven years. The Titans would face the Saint Mary’s-Purdue winner if they advance.

No. 10 Virginia Cavaliers (22-9)

Under coach Tony Bennett, who picked up the “Pack-Line” defense from his dad’s Wisconsin teams, the Cavs lead the nation in defensive efficiency. They hold opponents to 53.7 points. Teams do not get easy baskets against UVA.

Senior forward Mike Scott probably should have won ACC player of the year over Tyler Zeller. Scott (18.1 ppg, 8.4 rpg) shoots 56 percent from the field, 81 percent from the foul line.

True, the Cavs have no bench. But with the long TV timeouts in the NCAA tournament, depth is overrated.

After frustrating Florida, Virginia likely would face another run-and-gun team in Missouri.

No. 14 Belmont Bruins (27-7)

The Bruins, who enter on a 14-game win streak, feature a trio of versatile and experienced guards. Kerron Johnson (14.1 ppg), Ian Clark (12.6 ppg) and Drew Hanlen (11.0 ppg) helped Belmont rank third nationally in scoring at nearly 82 points per game.

This team can play with anyone, as evidenced by its one-point loss at then-No. 6 Duke on Nov. 11.

Belmont faces a Georgetown squad that’s lost in the first round in two straight years. If the Bruins advance, they’ll face the San Diego State-N.C. State winner.

No. 13 New Mexico State (26-9)

The Aggies open against an Indiana team that just lost its backup point guard and doesn’t play well away from Assembly Hall.

New Mexico State ranks 11th nationally in scoring (78.5). Senior forward Wendell McKines, who had 27 points and 14 rebounds in the WAC final, averages 18.5 points and 10.7 rebounds and teams with senior center Hamidu Rahman to form a potent inside duo. The Aggies feature two playmakers in senior Hernst Laroche (12.0 ppg, 3.8 apg) and freshman Daniel Mullings (9.3 ppg, 4.1 apg).

All season, WAC coaches said New Mexico State, with its size and athletic ability, would be scary if the team jelled. That happened in the conference tourney. In the championship game, the Aggies led 36-16 and were never threatened. They swarmed Louisiana Tech, holding the Bulldogs under 33 percent shooting.

If the Aggies advance, they’ll face the Wichita State-VCU winner.

NCAA Basketball: Bracketology 2012
Sportspic.com

The time has come for the annual Bracketology Article. This is where we take a departure from picking pointspread winners and help you fill out your NCAA Tournament bracket so that you can win your office pool. It goes without saying that the upcoming three weeks are our favorite time of year and that this article is something we look forward to writing each and every year.

Previously, this information was available only for My EDGE Newsletter subscribers. This is the first year, we are allowing EVERYONE to check it out!

Ask around and you’ll quickly hear of our yearly success with this article. Last year, we had National Champ UConn in the Title Game, which allowed many of you to win your office pool, since no one had Butler on the other side. Same thing two years ago with Duke and we also had West Virginia in the Final Four. In 2009, we correctly predicted that North Carolina would win it all, just like we did in 2005 when they beat Illinois (we predicted that exact Tournament Final). In 2007, we not only had the right Tournament Final and winner (Florida over Ohio State), but we correctly projected the entire Final Four field! In 2008, we correctly predicted seven of the Elite Eight teams (only missing on Cinderella Davidson).

Below you will find historical results for the Round of 64, specifically focused on how certain seeds fare against one another.

As you should certainly be aware of, no #1 seed has ever lost to a #16 seed in the history of the NCAA Tournament, going 108-0 straight up all-time. The last two seasons have seen all routs with no top seed winning by a margin of less than 19 points, going 7-1 against the spread. Remember that the advent of addition “Opening Round” (play-in) games now puts the 16 seeds at an even greater disadvantage than before. Advance all four #1 seeds to the next round

While 2 seeds are not infallible, opening round losses are very rare. In fact, there have only been four all-time and the last one occurred all the way back in 2001. It is not recommended to pick a 15 seed over a 2 seed when filling out your bracket. Advance all four #2 seeds to the next round.

When you get to the 3 seeds, upsets become far more prevalent. There have been 16 occasions all-time where a 14 seed has pulled off the outright upset. None occurred last year. The last time was two years ago with Ohio beating Georgetown. A good “rule of thumb” is that two out of every three years a 14 seed will emerge victorious. Could there be a big upset this year? We think so! We’re again looking for the Hoyas to go down, this time to Belmont. Another team, Marquette, better look out if Iona wins its play-in game. Advance all #3 seeds except Georgetown.

The 4 vs. 13 matchup produces even more upsets and it’s gotten to the point now where you have to pick at least one upset here every year. That’s because 23 of the previous 27 NCAA Tournaments have featured at least one 13 seed winning a game straight up. Last year, it was Morehead State over Louisville. The all-time record is 85-23 SU. This year, we are going with one #13 seed and that’s Ohio over Michigan! Advance all #4 seeds except Michigan.

Everyone knows about the history of the 5-12 matchup. In 21 of the previous 23 NCAA Tournaments, at least one 12 seed has won a game straight up. Last year was Richmond over Temple (which we called). There have been 36 all-time upsets since the field was expanded in 1985. Might as go with another one this year. Long Beach State played a very tough non-conference schedule and will “upset” New Mexico. Advance all #5 seeds except New Mexico.

There isn’t much of a difference when it comes to 6-11 and 5-12. Here too there are a lot of upsets. Last year saw three 11 seeds pull the upset and one (VCU) made it all the way to the Final Four! Over the last six tournaments, six seeds only hold a 13-11 SU advantage. All-time, the record is 86-42 SU. This year, we expect three of the six seeds to advance. The exception will be in the Midwest with NC State getting by San Diego State. Advance all #6 seeds except San Diego State.

Make sure to put some thought into the 7 vs. 10 matchups as history suggests at least one of these teams will make the Sweet 16. Last year, Florida State continued the trend after St. Mary’s did it in 2010. Interestingly, both of those were 10 seeds. From 2004-2008, 7 seeds won 15 of 20 first round matchups against 10th seeded counterparts. The last three tournaments have seen 10 seeds hold a 7-5 edge. The all-time record is 79-53 SU in favor of the 7’s. Look for a split this season. Advance two #7 seeds (Florida and St. Mary’s) while advancing two #10 seeds (West Virginia and Xavier).

By definition, the 8 vs. 9 matchup is a coin flip. With last year’s results (3-1 SU in favor of 8’s), eight seeds now hold a 67-65 edge. Over the last seven tournaments, there has never been a 4-0 sweep by either side. Last year saw one eight seed Butler go all the way to the National Championship game, in essence “killing” that half of the bracket for most people in office pools across the country. Again, we are calling for a split here. Advance #8 seeds Creighton and Kansas State while advancing #9 seeds UConn and St. Louis.

Below you will find historical results for Round of 32 in the NCAA Tournament.

As you know, top seeds have never lost in Round 1 of the NCAA Tournament. They don’t lose very often in the Round of 32 either. However, they are not infallible. Last year saw Pitt “do what Pitt does” and lose to eight seed Butler. It was the second consecutive year that we saw a top seed go down in the second round. Two years ago, it was Kansas losing to Northern Iowa. The six years prior to that saw all top seeds qualify for the Sweet 16. There has only been one occasion since 2000 that multiple one seeds went down in this round. Of the 20 all-time losses by one seeds in Round 2, 14 have come against an 8 seed and only six to 9 seeds.

This year will see some tough tests with Michigan State against St. Louis, Kentucky against UConn and Syracuse against Kansas State. However, advance all four #1 seeds to the Sweet 16.

The 2009 NCAA Tournament saw #2 seeds go a perfect 4-0 in the second round of the NCAA Tournament. That has been the exception, not the rule. In the six tournaments prior to that year, they were just 13-11 straight up overall! There has been one 2-seed upset in each of the last two tournaments, both out of the Big East (Villanova in 2010 and Notre Dame last year). Interestingly, there have been 42 all-time losses by two seeds in this round, 21 coming against 7 seeds and 21 coming against 10 seeds.

Believe it or not, but we feel this year’s crop of #2 seeds may be the strongest in history. Advance all four #2 seeds to the Sweet 16.

Number three seeds are also not guaranteed to make it out of the first weekend. In fact, they are just 41-36 SU vs. 6-seeds, basically a 50/50 proposition. In 2010, three #3 seeds lost in this round. Two fell last year. The 2008 and 2009 Tourneys saw all four 3-seeds make it to the Sweet 16. The five previous seasons had seen at least one 3-seed fall. They are 29-11 vs. 11 seeds and it was interesting that both upsets last year saw 11 seeds pulling the upset, one of them being VCU. Of course, it was a 3-seed that won the National Title last year in UConn.

We already called for one three seed (Georgetown) to get bounced. That sets up a “Cinderella” matchup of 11 seed NC State vs. 14 seed Belmont. Take NC State there. We already said another #3 (Marquette) could have a tough time in its first game. They won’t get by Murray State. Advance NC State and Murray State to the Sweet 16 while advancing #3 seeds Florida State and Baylor as well.

The #4 vs. #5 matchup is predictably a coin flip w/ the 4’s holding a 43-37 SU edge. Because of upsets, you are unlikely to have more than two of these matchups. That said there were three last year and four seeds won twice. That squares the record away over the last four tournaments at four wins apiece over the counterparts.

We have two 4 vs. 5 matchups this year. We will call for one 5 over a 4 (Wichita St over Indiana) and one 4 over a 5 (Wisconsin over Vanderbilt). Also advance #4 seed Louisville to the Sweet 16 and #5 seed Temple, both of whom benefit from playing double digit seeds.

Just a little aside here on how teams seeded 12th or lower do in the Round of 32. Typically, not well. Last year saw one (Richmond) make the Sweet 16, a 12 seed, although there were four double digit seeds total in the second weekend. 12 seeds are now 9-1 their last 10 against 13 seeds after Richmond beat Morehead State last year. There have only been two instances of a 14 seed making the Sweet 16. No 15 seed has ever one more than one game.

SWEET 16

Let’s reset our brackets for a moment shall we?

In the South, we have Kentucky vs. Wichita State and Duke vs. Baylor. We’re calling for an Elite Eight rematch of the greatest College Basketball game ever played, 20 years to the date, of Kentucky vs. Duke. Advance the top two seeds.

In the East, we had all four top seeds hold serve, which is rare. We will now then take the opportunity to go “off the board.” Wisconsin upsets Syracuse! The Badgers aren’t getting much love now compared to a trendy Vanderbilt team. We’re taking the more tried and tested team. Florida State is also trendy. Ohio State is better. Advance Ohio State and Wisconsin to the Elite Eight.

In the West, we have a #1 Michigan State vs. #4 Louisville and a #2 Missouri against a #6 Murray State. The Big East is down this year, so we like Izzo over Pitino and Murray State’s run ends here. Advance the top two seeds.

At the risk of sounding boring, you should also advance top two seeds North Carolina and Kansas in the Midwest. Both have pretty easy paths there.

Elite Eight

Take Kentucky over Duke – This is Coach Cal’s best look at a National Title and his team is simply too “athletic” for the Blue Devils. Revenge for Laettner!

Take Ohio State over Wisconsin – The Buckeyes win this All Big 10 battle, which doubles as a rubber match.

Take Michigan State over Missouri – We’re simply not as sold on Mizzou as we are on Izzo.

Take North Carolina over Kansas – Don’t buy into the hype surrounding the “neutral” site of St. Louis. The Tar Heels are much better.

Final Four

The bottom line is this. There is no way anyone is talking us out of a Kentucky vs. North Carolina final in this tournament. They have the two easiest paths and the most talent. Advance Kentucky and North Carolina to the National Championship Game.

National Championship Game

North Carolina has been very kind to us in the past, making good on our promises for them to win in both 2005 and 2008. Also, only once in the last eight years has the top overall seed won the whole thing. Guess what though? Coach Cal finally gets to cut down the nets!

Take Kentucky over North Carolina to win the National Championship

Betting On March Madness - The Underrated Teams
Sportspic.com

March Madness Betting lines or various other metrics of favorability in online sportsbooks might not be able to fully characterize the extent to which the Shockers are an underrated team heading into March Madness. It is the teams that the experts are forgetting that could wind up doing the most damage in the NCAA Tournament.

Wichita State

Coach Gregg Marshall clearly looks like one of the rising stars in his profession, a man who will have a job at a high-major program before too long. Secondly, Wichita State has inside-outside balance and, accordingly, the ability to play slowly or quickly. The Shockers can run and play 94-feet games, but they can also run crisp, disciplined halfcourt sets and hammer out possessions in a physical manner. This team has the versatility, depth and cohesion needed to make a deep March run. It’s definitely on par with the recent Butler and Virginia Commonwealth teams that made runs to the Final Four last season. Don’t let the mid-major label or identity fool you. This is a legitimately strong team that will likely make the Sweet 16 and gain a chance to make noise on the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament.

Michigan

When you do your homework and assess your sports bet on this year’s NCAA Tournament, you will definitely want to pay attention to the Wolverines. Michigan coach John Beilein has developed a reputation in the profession for being one of the better bench coaches in the United States. Beilein’s use of varying defenses, the 1-3-1 zone being the centerpiece, confuse opponents and cause point guards to freeze up when making decisions at or near the top of the key. Beilein has produced in the NCAA Tournament as well. He won as a lower seed in the 2009 NCAA Tournament, and he won an 8-versus-9 game last season when Michigan crushed Tennessee by 30 points.
Michigan followed that romp by nearly upsetting top-seeded Duke in the round of 32. Before doing great work at Michigan with underdog teams, Beilein carried West Virginia to the Sweet 16 as a No. 6 seed in 2006 before barely losing to second-seeded Texas in a razor-close regional semifinal. In 2005, Beilein took West Virginia to the Elite Eight as a No. 7 seed before losing in overtime to Louisville in the regional final. This year’s Michigan team has a little more backcourt athleticism than previous Beilein-coached squads, giving opponents even more to think about. Michigan can spread the court with a bunch of shooters and create tough matchups at multiple positions. This team is a dangerous Final Four threat.

Memphis

The College Basketball Betting experts who are preparing to break down brackets might consider the Memphis Tigers as an underrated team. This is not the high-powered Memphis team you might be accustomed to, but the Tigers have quietly become a better team than they were last year, when they had to win the Conference USA Tournament to make the field of 68 teams. This year, Memphis is safely in the field, a team that could not only win a game in the round of 64, but strongly push a high seed in the round of 32. This team is athletic and muscular, especially near the basket. It doesn’t play elegantly, but could be very dangerous if it shoots well from long distance.

Travel Trouble
By Antony Dinero
VegasInsider.com

They may not know it yet, but whoever gets through Wednesday's Vermont/Lamar first round game will find that they have a few thousand more fans at the Greensboro Coliseum on Friday.

Dressed in dark blue with a big D plastered somewhere on their bodies, Duke fans will be rooting vigorously for the Catamounts or Cardinals against hated rival North Carolina once they're done with Lehigh. Consider it one of the quirks among the venue chatter at this year's NCAA Tournament.

When the ‘Heels and Blue Devils last split regional play in nearby Greensboro back in 2009, the team that played last had to deal with the other's fans that remained attendance to get their money's worth. The decks are stacked against anyone not named Duke or North Carolina in the city that's hosted the most ACC Tournaments, but every little bit helps.

The Creighton/Alabama survivor has the same boost to look forward too, provided the Blue Devils advance on Sunday.

That said, it's not like the Tar Heels would trade the built-in homecourt edge playing in their backyard offers. In an elimination format, every edge gained by traveling less or having more fans in your corner is invaluable.

“The closer to home, the better served you are,” San Diego State coach Steve Fisher told the San Diego Union-Tribune of his meeting with N.C. State in Columbus. “In a perfect world, it would have been Portland or Albuquerque.”

Instead, the Aztecs are one of eight schools that find themselves over 1,800 miles from home when tipping off action at the NCAA Tournament.

California is up first, 2,000 miles from First Four action against South Florida in Dayton.

Reigning Cinderella VCU finds itself furthest from home, exactly 2,373 miles from Portland, where it’s scheduled to do battle with Wichita State.

That bests Davidson's odyssey to the Rose Garden by less than 100 miles, where they take on displaced cousin Louisville. Make a note that this will be the first game that tips from Portland on Thursday, which starts at 10:40 a.m. PT.

Albuquerque-bound Harvard is playing nearly 2,000 miles from Cambridge.

Seeding a tournament is complicated, so when you add venues to the equation, it's expected some things will fall through the cracks. This committee did a solid job of avoiding many of the glaring errors recent facilitators have committed, but there are a few injustices. Double-digits seeds like Cal, VCU, Harvard and Davidson being forced to travel to far away destinations is just a price they pay for being part of the show.

Needlessly putting obstacles in front of higher seeds that have earned the right at a fair shake in this tournament seems to be an annual talking point. This year's victims are Gonzaga, San Diego State, Indiana and Louisville, forced to trek nearly 2,000 miles a piece to face double-digit seeds that are closer to home.

Nowhere is that more egregious than for the Zags and Aztecs, heading East for what are essentially road games. Understanding neither won their conference tournaments, it's still a strange sight that the selection committee put them in games against teams in their own backyards.

Pittsburgh and West Virginia literally compete in the Backyard Brawl. Thanks to their good fortune, Mountaineers fans can cross the border and support their 10th-seeded basketball team against Gonzaga. Yes, (West) Virginia, there is an East coast bias.

Mark Few took the high road, stating something about all tournaments carrying unique challenges, but the Bulldogs coach should rightfully be seething. In what's expected to be a physical game featuring many massive frames, there will only be one side clamoring for calls.

San Diego State travels just short of 2,000 miles to reach Columbus, where N.C. State awaits. Wolfpack nation can hop in their campers, pull off speeds slightly above the speed limit and make it to Nationwide Arena inside of six hours.

Not surprisingly, both Gonzaga and SDSU opened as underdogs.

Indiana squares off against WAC champion New Mexico State, a No. 13 seed that has many key players still around from the team that nearly upset Michigan State in the 2010 Tournament. The Hoosiers haven't been dancing since 2008, so it's wholly unfair that the dream season that has landed this first appearance under Tom Crean was met with such a heartless reward. It certainly makes the Aggies a live dog candidate, not to mention favoring No. 5-seed Wichita State in terms of proximity should the teams meet in Round 3. Fortunately, Hoosier nation travels well, so they'll still be able to count on looking up and seeing plenty of Crimson and Cream.

Louisville is in that same boat, since Cardinals fans would venture to Shanghai if a big game called for it. Still, it's curious that they would potentially face No. 5 seed New Mexico at the Rose Garden. What's the point of being the No. 4 seed if the other school has the advantage?

Duke and North Carolina got the expected Greensboro treatment, but while UNC gets a potential road regional final against KU, the Blue Devils, losers of the most recent winner-take-ACC game between the Tobacco Road rivals, got the better landing spot. If it handles business in-state, Duke is headed for ACC-friendly Atlanta, site of the 2012 conference tournament.

Teams that were rightfully rewarded include No. 1 overall seed Kentucky attempting to advance through Louisville and Atlanta and No. 2 overall seed Syracuse drawing Pittsburgh and Boston, the same path as Ohio State. Kansas and Missouri both start in Omaha, but only the Jayhawks get to move on through St. Louis. That seems just, since the Jayhawks rolled through the Big 12 with a 16-2 mark in spite of getting bounced early in the conference tournament. Another league school, Baylor, is anchored as the favorite in Albuquerque, which seems fair given its body of work.

The committee also championed the little guy in one instance, putting top mid-major Murray State in Louisville. No. 3 seed Marquette may not like what it sees if both schools advance to Saturday's third round, but as the only team to carry a single loss into the tournament, the Racers earned their break.

Oddsmakers will have a difficult time picking a favorite in that potential clash.

Top 10 tips for gambling on the 2012 NCAA Tournament
By Teddy Covers
Sportsmemo.com

When March Madness rolls around, no one is immune to the itch to get in on the action, whether it’s laying down a bet or simply competing in an office pool. I’ll share my Top 10 NCAA Tournament gambling strategies in this article. There are no surprises here – veteran bettors know this stuff already, but it never hurts to think about these concepts again before the Big Dance begins.

1) Fade the teams that looked great last weekend
There’s no such thing as carrying over momentum from conference tournament weekend to the Big Dance. Of the Top 16 teams in the Big Dance – the top four teams from each region – only four of them (Michigan State, Louisville, Missouri and Florida State) won their conference tournaments.

Many of the top contenders for the national title dropped out early; focusing on this coming weekend as opposed to last weekend. The teams that went all out to secure a bid or win their conference title but came up short, like Cincinnati, Baylor and San Diego State , tend to be particularly strong on the fade list.

2) Winning your office pool requires luck

When filling out brackets, the single most important thing is to pick the eventual champion correctly, since the final game is weighted the most. 18 of the past 22 national championships have been won by #1 or #2 seeds. In the offshore betting marketplace, the grouping of the four #1 seeds is a short favorite against the rest of the field to win the national title, just as a #1seed has done in four of the last five years.

Many office pool players work too much on picking the early round upsets and not enough on their Final Four teams. The vast majority of Final Four teams are top seeded teams; #1, #2 or #3 seeds. I always pick at least two #1 seeds to make the Final Four. They earned those top seeds because they've been the best teams in college basketball all season, which is why I never call for a #1 seed to get upset before the Sweet 16 round at the earliest in my own brackets.

Remember, the bigger pool that you are in, the more chances you’ll need to take and the more upsets you should pick, particularly upsets that build big points on the second weekend of the tournament, as we go from the Sweet 16 to the Elite Eight, then the Final Four. For smaller pools, a more conservative strategy is the superior choice. You don’t have as much competition to worry about, and there’s much less of a need to pick a bunch of upsets in order to surpass your opposition.

3) Be aware of home court advantages

While the NCAA tournament is purportedly played on neutral floors, the selection committee gives relatively friendly trips to a handful of teams. West Virginia, Ohio State, Kentucky, Duke, North Carolina and Kansas will all enjoy some sort of a home court advantage in the first weekend of the tourney this year. Meanwhile teams like San Diego State, VCU, Indiana, Harvard and Gonzaga all face tough east-to-west or west-to-east travel situations.

4) Free throws cover pointspreads

When one team gets to the free throw line far more often than their opponents, it means that they play fundamentally sound defense, aggressively on offense, and have the lead in the final minute more often than not. Remember, an eight point favorite that is winning by two can cover the spread in the final thirty seconds of the game if they are capable of hitting their free throws. Never forget what happened to poor free throw shooting Memphis a few years back, when they had the national title all wrapped up until they couldn’t close out the game at the foul line in the final minute and ended up losing to Kansas in overtime.

5) Throw out the records that don’t matter

When teams play in the NCAA tournament, they are facing top notch competition away from home. Looking at their records and stats against weaklings, particularly at home, is utterly irrelevant from a handicapping perspective. Look at how teams performed against upper echelon foes away from home for a clearer indicator of their potential. You’ll get a better read on a team’s true capabilities when examining their road games in conference play and their non-conference road and neutral site contests than you will by looking at their conference tournament performance this past weekend.

6) Defense, defense, defense

While a flashy offense looks great, defense wins championships. Shooting percentage allowed and assist-to-turnover ratio allowed are two key stats, a far better indicator of defensive intensity than points per game allowed. TV talking heads often fail to mention that points per game allowed is about pace, not defensive acumen. Look for underdogs that play championship level defense in an effort to hang tough with a superior team, like upstarts VCU and Butler did on their way to the Final Four last year. On the other end of the spectrum, it’s hard to cover spreads as a bigger favorite without consistently being able to force stops. Simply trading buckets all game doesn’t cut it for double digit chalk.

7) Ride the hot, fade the cold

Pay attention to ATS streaks, particularly early in the tournament. It’s not about how good a team actually is; it’s about how good a team actually is compared to their market value as determined by the pointspread. Teams that were overvalued and undervalued heading into the tournament tend to stay that way. Hot teams include New Mexico, Michigan State, Missouri, Iowa State, Indiana, Saint Louis and Colorado State; all of whom ranked among the top 30 ATS teams in the country this year. The NCAA tournament team with the single worst pointspread record in the field is Kentucky (12-21 ATS), with Duke, Detroit, Xavier, Texas and UNLV all joining the Wildcats as overvalued commodities in 2011-12. Those six teams were consistent money losing underachievers for their supporters all season long, all cashing 40% of their bets or less. Meanwhile, Southern Miss earned an elusive at-large bid from C-USA despite a woeful 1-9 ATS run in their ten games heading into the tournament.

8) Inside/Outside

The very best teams – teams that can reach the Final Four, with a shot to win it all – have another common denominator. These teams have quality play on the perimeter with their guards and in the low post with their big men. Strong guard play results in fewer turnovers and extra assists – more easy buckets and less wasted possessions. Junior and senior leadership in the backcourt is worth a fortune in this tournament. Rebounding differential is also crucial to examine. The better rebounding teams tend to dominate the paint, getting easy looks while their opponents are relegated to shooting jumpers from the outside. The extra possessions that good rebounding teams are able to get can have a huge impact on their results. Just to prove my point, the Big Dance is loaded with positive rebounding margin squads. North Carolina, New Mexico State, Michigan State, Kentucky, St Mary’s, Wichita State, Georgetown, Davidson and New Mexico all finished the season in the Top 20 nationally in this key statistical area.

9) Ignore Seeding

Pointspreads matter. Seeding doesn’t, with one exception. When you are filling out brackets, seeding matters because it will show you how tough a road a team has to reach the Final Four. It’s much easier to reach the Final Four as a #1 seed than as a #6 seed. And when the #11 seed is a favorite against the #6 seed, the betting markets are telling you all you need to know. Oddsmakers are sharper –much sharper – then the NCAA tournament selection committee.

10) Follow the lead of the pros

In the NCAA tournament, many amateurs enter the betting world for the first time all season. These square bettors tend to back favorites and overlook schools from smaller conferences. Professional bettors are far more knowledgeable about smaller conferences and that gives them an edge when analyzing on-court match-ups.

Realistic long-shot bets to win the tourney
By Josh Nagel
Covers.com

There’s a generally accepted school of thought that suggests Cinderella-type upsets make for great feel-good stories the first weekend of the NCAA tournament, but that the big boys usually are the ones left standing come the Final Four.

VCU and George Mason beforehand were great stories but it turned out that the slipper fit on powerhouse programs UConn and Florida and not the small conference heroes. So while it’s a good story about the kid who bet $10 on VCU to win it all at 5000/1 or the 12 people who bet Colorado State at 9999/1, in the end it boils down to guys holding onto losing tickets.

Being a little less greedy, and betting teams with medium-shot odds to win the Big Dance, is probably a better decision for enjoyment purposes and payout potential.

Last year’s national champions were still a healthy long shot (30/1) just before the tournament, and they embodied what is becoming something of a formula for teams with long odds to make long runs.

They had perhaps the nation’s best player in Kemba Walker, who could be counted on to make plays when things got tight, a defense capable of getting big stops, they were peaking at the right time after winning the Big East tournament, they had a couple of viable role players in guys like Jeremy Lamb and Alex Oriakhi and a battle-tested coach in Jim Calhoun.

Teams that fit this profile often make deep runs, and backing them can be a profitable venture even if they don’t cut down the nets. While UConn backers were no doubt happy to take the cash last year, clubs that don’t win it all still can give you quite a bit of equity just by making a decent run.

For instance, the 2010 Michigan State team went off at 40/1 to win the tournament and reached the Final Four. I had $50 on the Spartans, and was able to hedge in the Elite Eight for plus-money with Tennessee, and made another low-cost hedge on Butler moneyline at -120 in the Final Four.

Each year, I scan the odds sheet looking for a couple of horses to back in search of such equity. It’s worth doing the homework ahead because, of course, the prices are changed once the brackets are revealed to reflect current form and relative strength of draw.

Before the ACC Tournament started last week, you could have had Florida State at 50/1. Today, it’s 25/1. Even so, for a team with a championship-caliber defense and an improved offense that looks to be in the throes of a UConn-type run, there might be some value in the price.

If you haven’t already dipped into the futures pool, it’s not too late to find some value. Here are a few teams that I like to possibly give you a sweat for the money, with their updated odds and a brief analysis:

Wisconsin -- Current odds: 60/1. Last week: 50/1.

Wisconsin might be the most intriguing team on the futures board. The Badgers have the nation’s top-ranked defense – the NCAA tournament’s most precious commodity – at 52.9 points per game.

They have a fairly favorable bracket, with the potential of meeting top-seeded Syracuse, a more explosive but similarly defensive-minded club, or No. 2 Ohio State, which it beat in the regular season. Wisconsin has a finisher in Jordan Taylor, who played great in last year’s tournament.

Although its slow-down offense has drawn critics, it has proven effective in tournament settings. The Badgers head to the NCAAs having won four of their past five.

Indiana -- Current odds: 60/1. Last week: 50/1.

The Hoosiers lost a little depth with the season-ending injury to guard Verdell Jones III, who was second on the team in assists and added 7.5 points per game.

Still, coach Tom Crean’s experience-laden team has had something of a coming out party this year, with many of his players getting their first taste of success after experiencing turmoil when the coach took over.

The Hoosiers have a top-20 offense and a defense that can crack down when it needs to. They also have proven to be giant killers, with wins against Ohio State, Michigan State and Kentucky, the top seed in its bracket.

Marquette -- Current odds: 30/1. Last week: 50/1.

The price change shows it paid to be early on Marquette, before the Golden Eagles became a trendy Final Four pick, even among national media. Marquette matches up fairly well with the top seeds in its bracket, Michigan State and Missouri, and has a balanced and experienced club.

Big East Player of the Year Jae Crowder leads the Eagles in rebounds and steals and is second in scoring (17.4 ppg) behind Darius Johnson-Odom (18.5). Marquette has depth and is capable of winning high-scoring or slow-tempo games.

Who Has The Easiest Road to the Final Four
By Steve Janus
Betfirms.com

When making your NCAA Tournament picks its usually a good idea to look at each region and try to figure out which teams have the easiest road to the Final Four. When you have it down to the four teams you like in each region, it gives you a better idea of where you can throw in some upsets that won’t kill you if they don’t come through. Here is a quick look at the four teams who I think have the clearest path to New Orleans.

South Region: No. 1 Seed: Kentucky Wildcats

I really believe the Wildcats have the easiest path to the Final Four. Kentucky is without question the best team in their bracket, something you can’t say so confidently about the other three regions. A lot of people will look at Duke at the No. 2 seed and consider a possible upset, but I don’t even have the Blue Devils making it to the Elite 8. The two teams that I believe will give Kentucky the biggest challenge are No. 8 Iowa State in the Round of 32 and No. 3 Baylor in the Elite 8. Iowa State is one of the most underrated teams in the country, while Baylor has the athleticism that could give Kentucky fits. You could argue that No. 4 Indiana poses a threat if they get to the Sweet 16. The Hoosiers were one of two teams to beat Kentucky in the regular season, but without home court on their side I give them no shot at winning that game.

Midwest Region: No. 1 Seed North Carolina Tar Heels

While the Tar Heels lost in the ACC Championship Game, I think this team has really came to together late in the year. As far as their road to the Final Four, I think the Tar Heels have a pretty easy region. No. 8 Creighton will get a lot of hype if they are able to beat Alabama, considering North Carolina’s Harrison Barnes and Creighton’s Doug McDermott both played on the same high school team. However, Creighton doesn’t have the overall talent to hang with the Tar Heels. The Tar Heels should have no trouble getting past the Sweet 16. Neither No. 4 Michigan or No. 5 Temple pose a threat. The biggest challenge facing the Tar Heels is No. 2 Kansas, but that’s really the only game I could possibly see them losing.

East Region: No. 2 Seed Ohio State Buckeyes

With the suspension of Syracuse center Fab Melo, I have the Buckeyes the team to beat in the East. However, getting through the East region won’t be an easy task. Outside of their first round game against Loyola-Maryland, the Buckeyes are poised some difficult matchups. In the Round of 32 the Buckeyes will have to take on either West Virginia or Gonzaga, two teams capable of pulling off the upset. They then will likely have to face No. 3 Florida State, who is as hot as any team in the country after winning the ACC Tournament. It won’t get any easier in the Elite 8, where they could meet up with No. 1 Syracuse or a sizzling Vanderbilt team that just beat Kentucky to win the SEC Tournament.

West Region: No. 2 Seed Missouri Tigers

Of all the No. 2 seeds, I believe Missouri has the easiest bracket to get past. The No. 1 seed in the West is Michigan State, but I think they will struggle to even make it to the Elite 8. If the Spartans do go down, that really makes it a lot easier on the Tigers. That’s not to say they won’t have some difficult games along the way. The winner of No. 7 Florida and No. 10 Virginia is going to be a game the Tigers could have trouble with. They also could have their hands full against either No. 3 Marquette or No. 6 Murray State in the Sweet 16. While the committee listed the Tigers as the worst No. 2 seed, I think this bracket definitely works in their favor.

NCAA Tournament Sleepers
By Jack Jones
Betfirms.com

The brackets are out for the 2012 NCAA Tournament, and this year could be as difficult as ever in predicting who will make the Final Four, as each region has a number of teams who you could make an argument for, and if years past have taught us anything, you never know what to expect. I have taken the time to breakdown the possible sleepers (teams not the top two seeds) in each region, which should help you make your tournament picks this year.

East Region Sleepers:

I believe the East is the toughest region of them all. You have Syracuse and Ohio State as the top two seeds, plus Florida State and Vanderbilt, who each won their conference tournament. Anyone could come out of this region, and which ever team does will have earned it.

No. 3 Florida State – The Seminoles have beaten Duke and North Carolina a combined four times this season. They knocked off the Blue Devils and the Tar Heels in the semifinals and finals, respectively, of the ACC Tournament. The ACC champs are clearly capable of beating anyone in the tournament.

No. 5 Vanderbilt – Like FSU, the Commodores got hot late and won their conference tournament. That’s saying something considering they had to beat No. 1 Kentucky in the SEC title game, which they did by a final score of 71-64. This team has two studs in John Jenkins (19.9 points) and Jeffery Taylor (16.4) that will be tough to deal with.

No. 6 Cincinnati - The Bearcats made it to the Big East championship game before bowing out to Louisville. They have three stud guards in Sean Kilpatrick (14.3 points), Dion Dixon (13.1 points), and Cashmere Wright (10.9 points, 4.6 assists). They also have a massive center in Yancy Gates (12.4 points, 9.2 rebounds). This team has all the pieces to make a run.

West Region Sleepers:

This one of the weaker regions that appears to be coming down to Michigan State and Missouri, but not if these three teams have something to say about it.

No. 4 Louisville – The Cardinals got hot late and won four games in four days to take down the Big East Tournament title. They beat three NCAA Tournament teams and another bubble team while holding three of four opponents to under 55 points. Louisville finally got healthy late in the year, which makes them a dangerous team going forward.

No. 6 Murray State – The Racers never really got the respect they deserved all season. A 30-1 team, Murray State should have been given a lower seed. They beat Memphis, Southern Miss, St. Mary’s and Western Kentucky, which are four teams that will be playing in the NCAA Tournament. This team is the real deal and could make an Elite 8 run.

No. 12 Long Beach State – No team in the field played a tougher non-conference schedule than Long Beach State. The 49ers played eight NCAA Tournament teams before even getting into the conference season. They would win 18 of their final 20 games, and this is the highest-seeded team that nobody wants to face.

South Region Sleepers:

I have pegged the South as the second-toughest of the four regions. That’s because I don’t feel that anybody is going to be able to beat Kentucky or Duke, and it’s almost certain that one of those teams goes to the Final Four.

No. 5 Wichita State - The Shockers have been underrated all year and are the one team that I believe can beat Kentucky or Duke on their best day. Wichita State ranks 15th in the country in scoring (77.7) and 13th in field goal percentage (48.5). Not to mention they only give up 62.4 points, outscoring opponents by an average of 15.3/game.

N0. 8 Iowa State – The Cyclones finished 3rd in what was pegged the second-toughest conference in the country. They have been given the No. 8 seed, but they should be a No. 5 or No. 6. Head coach Fred Hoiberg has brought in one of the most talented recruiting classes in the country, and these are guys that can play with anyone. The Cyclones beaten Kansas and Baylor, so they’ve proven it on the floor. They could shock the world against Kentucky in the Round of 32.

Midwest Region Sleepers:

I believe the Midwest Region is the weakest of them all. That means that No. 1 seed North Carolina should have no problem getting through. Aside from Kansas, their competition will be these teams.

No. 3 Georgetown – The Hoyas haven’t had much luck in recent NCAA Tournaments, but this is a very talented team that will be a tough match-up for all comers. Jason Clark (13.9 points, 4.1 rebounds), Hollis Thompson (12.7 points, 5.6 rebounds), Henry Sims (11.7 points, 6.2 rebounds) and Otto Porter (9.5 points, 6.7 rebounds) are all tough guards.

No. 5 Temple - The Owls have five players who all average 9.1 or more points, so they are very balanced. They also have two absolute scorers in Ramone Moore (17.7 points) and Khalif Wyatt (17.1 points) who can fill it up. The Owls have wins over five NCAA Tournament teams in Wichita State, Duke, Saint Louis, Xavier and St. Bonaventure.

No. 11 NC State – The Wolfpack made it to the semifinals of the ACC Tournament, losing 67-69 to North Carolina, which proved that they can play with the best in the country. They open with a very winnable game against San Diego State. Despite being the higher seed, they are actually favored in that contest.

2012 NCAA Tournament Possible First Round Upsets
By Steve Janus
Betfirms.com

The chances of the better seed winning every game is slim to none. If you want to win your office pool, you have to be willing to take some chances on some upsets. The difficult part is picking which games the underdogs will win. A lot of the upsets take place in the opening round, which is where I will focus my attention in this article. Here is a look at my three favorite possible upsets out of each region. I chose to not include any of the 8 vs. 9 games, as those games are basically a toss up as it is.

South Region

No. 12 VCU over No. 5 Wichita State – All you have to do is look at what VCU did in last year’s tournament to realize they are a dangerous team when it comes to tournament play. The Rams won the Colonial Tournament with a big win over Drexel and come into the tournament having won 17 of their last 18 overall.

No. 13 New Mexico State over No. 4 Indiana - I think this is a good spot to take a chance on a underrated New Mexico State group. Indiana is a team that thrives at home, and struggled on the road. You won’t lose a lot of points if you decide to pass up on Indiana, as I can’t see them beating Kentucky in the Sweet 16.

No. 10 Xavier over No. 7 Notre Dame – Xavier claimed wins over Vanderbilt, Purdue, and Cincinnati in non-conference play, and they should give a struggling Notre Dame team trouble. The Fighting Irish come in having lost three of their last five overall.

West Region

No. 12 Long Beach State vs. New Mexico – Long Beach State is a dangerous team, and one I think could make a lot of noise in the opening round of the tournament. They don’t come from a big conference, but their non-conference included games against Pittsburgh, San Diego State, Louisville, Kansas, North Carolina, Xavier, and Kansas State. Perfect spot for your classic 12 seed upset.

No. 10 Virginia vs. No. 7 Florida – Virginia is one of the more underrated teams in the country, and I think they have a great chance at knocking off the Gators. Florida comes in having lost four of their last five overall. This is also a good spot to take a chance, as I don’t see either team beating Missouri in the next round.

No. 13 Davidson vs. No. 4 Louisville – Davidson comes into the tournament having won five straight, including three in a row to win the Southern Conference Tournament. If you need proof that they can hang with the top conferences, just look at their 80-74 win at Kansas.

East Region

No. 12 Harvard vs. No. 5 Vanderbilt – There is a lot of people raving over Vanderbilt after their huge win over Kentucky in the SEC Tournament, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they got sent home early by a talented Harvard team. The same Harvard team that knocked off Florida State early in the year.

No. 13 Montana vs. No. 4 Wisconsin – This isn’t an upset I feel great about, but definitely one that could happen. Montana comes into the tournament on an impressive 14-game winning streak. Wisconsin plays great defense and can really slow the game down, but if they don’t make their shots they are definitely vulnerable. Just look at their two losses to Iowa in Big Ten play.

No. 11 Texas vs. No. 6 Cincinnati – The Longhorns struggled in big games this year, but they have the length that can give opposing team troubles. Their ability to dominate on the boards is something you have to like. Another good spot to take a shot on an underdog with Florida State waiting in the next round.

Midwest Region

No. 13 Ohio vs. No. 4 Michigan – Like a lot of Big Ten teams, Michigan really plays their best at home. In a neutral court setting the Wolverines are beatable, and Ohio is a team that could give them trouble.

No. 10 Purdue vs. No. 7 St. Mary’s – Purdue is another team that struggled in big games, but they have one of the more underrated players in the tournament in Robbie Hummel. When he has it going the Boilermakers are a very dangerous team.

No. 14 Belmont vs. No. 3 Georgetown – The Hoyas are a solid team, but a 12-point loss at Pittsburgh, 12-point loss at West Virginia, and a 18-point loss at Seton Hall are signs that this team is definitely a team that can fail to live up to their potential. Both Pittsburgh and Seton Hall failed to even make the tournament. Belmont is a team you likely haven’t heard a lot about, but they have a lot of talent and could easily shock the Hoyas.

Cinderella Squads
By Antony Dinero
VegasInsider.com

Over the past few years, Butler and VCU have changed the game.

Consider it a product of the one-and-done era, where top teams are forced to reload by incorporating new talent each season, but mid-majors have not so quietly closed the gap by developing chemistry and cohesion, seeing it translate into unprecedented results this time of year.

It's because of this that a 9-year-old can win your bracket pool. My 3-year-old daughter had Richmond making a run last year due to her fascination with spooky spiders. The unheralded A-10 school reached the Sweet 16.

Neighboring VCU had a longer run, shocking the world by getting all the way to the Final Four, which of course begs the question, who's going to do it this year?

As a rule, there's no way a Top-8 seed should ever qualify as a Cinderella, especially if they don't suffer the same disadvantages of typical mid-majors. That means Wichita State is out, as is MVC roommate Creighton, led by a national Player of the Year candidate in Doug McDermott. If you're the defending champion, underachieving all season and winding up a No. 9 seed doesn't qualify you for a slipper fitting, either. Sorry, UConn.

Here are the eight teams who do meet the admittedly stringent criteria:

SOUTH

Slipper favorite: #10 Xavier - This team absolutely performed below expectations, since the Musketeers were being trumpeted as Final Four candidates prior to their brawl with Cincinnati. Once that adversity hit, the Musketeers wound up fractured. Too many individuals attempted to do their own thing, disrupting the chemistry that keyed the strong start. Xavier looked to be working its way back late in the season, reaching the A-10 Tournament final and allowing Mark Lyons to spark a comeback against Dayton in the quarterfinals as opposed to letting it all ride on Tu Holloway's shoulders. Star freshman Dezmine Wells rose to the challenge and senior center Kenny Frease asserted himself more and started knocking down free throws. Beating Notre Dame won't be easy, but is certainly doable. Taking down Duke in Greensboro would be a chore, but Ryan Kelly might have to sit out the weekend, improving Xavier's chances of reaching the Sweet 16.

Slipper candidate: #12 VCU - No rule against back-to-back Cinderella status, right, Butler? Shaka Smart's Rams can dream about consecutive Final Four appearances given their draw. If they can get past the Shockers, playing Indiana way out in Portland guarantees a fair shot at the Sweet 16. Bradford Burgess, one of the stars of last year's run, will have to lead them. VCU throws off teams with its constant pressure and has enough 3-point shooters capable of getting hot and significantly altering a bracket.

WEST

Slipper favorite: #12 Long Beach State - There aren't many point guards better than Casper Ware in these NCAAs, so when you have a head of the snake as proficient as that senior, you always have a chance. The 49ers went 15-1 in Big West play and rolled through the conference tournament without top forward Larry Anderson, who was resting a knee injury. He's expecting to play against New Mexico, boosting the chances of a team that played seven NCAA Tournament participants during the regular season. Head coach Dan Monson has had success this time of year and is one of the most unheralded talents in his profession, while the region also helps, since an upset of the Lobos means a likely date with Indiana, which is roughly 2,000 miles from home.

Slipper candidate: #9 Saint Louis - Rick Majerus has put together a veteran team that prides itself on defense and being tougher than you are. Forward Brian Conklin might as well be playing with a hard hat on, while Australian Cody Ellis is one of the more versatile athletes in this tournament. If guards Kwamain Mitchell and Mike McCall can hit enough shots, the Billikens will be a tough out.

MIDWEST

Slipper favorite: #13 Ohio - D.J. Cooper is another point guard whose game you have to see to appreciate, so expect him to surprise those who haven't. He's small, generously listed at 5-foot-11 but a few inches shorter, but has a fearless game and typically gets himself and teammates going. He'll give freshman Trey Burke all he can handle in the Bobcats opener, especially if his supporting cast is knocking down shots. Nick Kellogg, the son of CBS analyst and former NBA player, Clark, is one of the deadliest shooters in the country. The sophomore guard knocked down 77 3-pointers and shot 42 percent from beyond the arc, never shying away from a big moment. If Ohio can shock Michigan, beating the Temple-Cal/USF winner is manageable.

Slipper candidate: #14 Belmont - Speaking of 3-pointers, the Bruins utilize the game's great equalizer as well as anyone in the country and have already established themselves as one of the teams you don't want to see pop up in your pairing. The A-Sun champs become Georgetown's nightmare, so it's no surprise shrewd oddsmakers have made the Hoyas a four-point favorite in what screams, trap line. Belmont opened the season losing to Duke, 77-76, and feature three players who have hit at least 40 3-pointers. One of them, Ian Clark, is a guard who can stand out in any conference in the country.

EAST

Slipper favorite: #12 Harvard - Ending a drought of 66 years between Ivy League titles, Harvard isn't just happy to be in the NCAA Tournament. Not only does Tommy Amaker know what he's doing, he brings in a veteran team that packs size, solid guards and obviously, intelligence. The Crimson are 26-4 and held Florida State to 41 points when the teams met in the Bahamas way back in November. As nice as a tropical getaway might sound, Harvard can actually head home to the Boston regional if it can slip past Vanderbilt and the Wisconsin/Montana winner, supplying more Cinderella ammunition.

Slipper candidate: #11 Texas - The Longhorns aren't your typical longshot, especially since guards J'Covan Brown and Myck Kabongo are likely to play at the next level. Still, Texas was overshadowed by a handful of Big 12 teams and needed a late push just to earn an at-large bid. With Cincinnati up first and a date against the FSU/St. Bonaventure winner promised after that, Rick Barnes' squad has a path they can navigate if they play to their potential.

Las Vegas Money Moves
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

Out of the 30 NCAA Tournament games posted at Wynn Las Vegas, only two of the favorites have been bet up to a higher spread with all the others either staying flat or dropping. Of course that could all change as we get closer to game time. Most of the line movement thus far has been from Sharp money looking for the best value of their sides.

Wynn Las Vegas sports book director Johnny Avello has seen a lot of changes cycle through the betting world in his 25 years of setting odds, but has noticed a major change the last six years in the tournament.

“Things have a changed a lot in regards to the quality of teams. The lower seeds have gotten better and the higher seeds have come back to the pack,” says Avello. “You no longer see the 16 and 15 seeds getting 30 or 29-points in a game.”

“I just posted the Kentucky game at minus-25 against Western Kentucky which is four points higher than any of the top seeds.”

Of the top eight seeds, Missouri (-21) is the highest spread with Syracuse down from -18 to -15½ because of the news that defensive superstar Fab Melo won’t be playing. The first bets on Missouri game came against them as bettors took the opener of +22 with Norfolk State.

Part of that trend may be because the higher ranked teams have star players that have no intention of sticking around, going to class and developing team chemistry. Whereas some of these smaller schools have kids that have played together three or four years created great continuity. This is how we get the George Mason’s, Butler’s and VCU’s into the Final Four.

Because of the small-lesser known schools have a better shot than years past, professional bettors have been jumping on board with the underdogs looking for the right Cinderella.

“This is a normal process for sharp money,” Avello says, “They’re looking for the best value and it says a lot when their first bets are taking the points.”

The only favorites that have moved up have been UNLV and Michigan State. The Rebels got immediate action laying minus-5 against Pac-12 Champion Colorado. The Spartans, fresh off their Big-10 Championship, moved from an opener of -18½ to -20 against LIU-Brooklyn.

The biggest move has seen Harvard money come strong against Vanderbilt. Vandy opened as 8½-point favorites and now sits at -½.

Montana action has come in almost as strong. The Grizzlies opened as 11½-point ‘dogs to Wisconsin and currently sit at +9.

Again, the bulk of the action will come on Thursday and Friday and in most cases, favorites will be bet by the public who sit and watch the games at the sports book all day. In most cases, these types of bettors play each game close to tip-off with the amount of their wagers dependent upon how they’re day has gone thus far.

If it’s a winning day, the wager is higher than their normal unit bet. If it’s a bad day, the bets are smaller as a trip to the ATM is usually required. In each case, the emotions of the wins and losses are put to extremes thanks to a long a day of drinking.