Venue Breakdown
By Joe Nelson
VegasInsider.com
While most of the NCAA tournament games will generally be played in unfamiliar venues and spacious arenas with mixed fan bases, Ii is worth taking a look at the travel required for teams and fan bases. Here is a brief look at some of the advantages and disadvantages presented by the selection committee this season.
Louisville, Kentucky
The Wildcats play in their home state but their opponent is also a Bluegrass State foe as Western Kentucky won Tuesday’s opening game. The winner will enjoy a huge advantage in the next game as Iowa State and Connecticut are both far from home in this grouping. Ames may not look that far on a map but it is 600 miles away, though that is a closer than the roughly 900 miles Connecticut fans have to travel. While Kentucky was expected to get a big location advantage the team most benefiting from the Louisville draw is West 6 seed Murray State. Only the top four seed lines are supposed to get location consideration yet Murray State will not have to leave Kentucky for its first game with Colorado State or a potential ‘round of 32’ game with 3 seed Marquette. Louisville is still over 200 miles from Louisville but it is nearly twice as far from Milwaukee, although Marquette was placed in the closest possible location. The disadvantage for Marquette won’t be so much in the distance traveled but in that all the Kentucky fans will surely adopt Murray State as their rooting interest.
Portland, Oregon
With the Pac-12 being pretty terrible this season the West region had a lot of trouble filling in teams that made sense. Portland was then left without a team seeded higher than a 4 seed and very few western teams. This might be an easy ticket as every team involved is facing a long trip. 4 seeds Indiana and Louisville will be at location disadvantages should they win their first games but it won’t be significant and 5 seeds Wichita State and New Mexico are also facing very significant travel. New Mexico and New Mexico State at least have the benefit of being closer to the Pacific time zone as 12 seed Long Beach State is the only team in that zone in this grouping. New Mexico has emerged as a trendy sleeper to knock off Louisville in the potential 4/5 match-up but don’t cite location advantage as a reason as being 1,300 miles away isn’t much better than being 2,300 miles away.
Albuquerque, New Mexico
There simply aren’t many short trips out west so while UNLV and Colorado both seem to be paired in a favorable venue it is a significant journey for both teams at nearly 500 miles for the Buffaloes and nearly 600 miles for the Rebels. 3 seed Baylor is playing nearly 700 miles from Waco so there is not much of an advantage for any team in that South region pod. The rest of the Albuquerque group seems to be leftover teams that didn’t do enough to earn preferential treatment as Wisconsin and Montana meet in a 4/13 game and Vanderbilt and Harvard meet in a 5/12 game. Badger fans are known to travel well but there may not be much of a draw for those games.
Greensboro, North Carolina
As usual Duke and North Carolina have earned favorable spots in Greensboro and it will be tough to envision too much support for any of the other teams in these pods. Notre Dame and Xavier meet in what would have been a full arena in game that would have played great for fans if it was in say Louisville but instead the victor will face a big location disadvantage in the next round if the Blue Devils get by Lehigh. North Carolina will draw the winner of what should be a great game between Creighton and Alabama in an 8/9 match-up. Tuscaloosa is over 500 miles away for Crimson Tide fans which is quite a bit closer than the 1,300 mile drive that some Creighton fans will make. Duke and North Carolina have certainly earned it with their great traditions but it is a bit unfair that almost every year they get to play NCAA tournament games an hour away from home. Selling tickets is more important than competitive balance so don’t expect it to change.
Columbus, Ohio
Michigan State ventures into enemy territory for its opening tournament games and it is a very reasonable four hour drive south for Spartans fans. Potential second game foes St. Louis and Memphis are considerably further away from Columbus but it is a manageable trip for both of those teams and their fans. The other group in Columbus is a mismatch of teams as San Diego State and NC State both will be far from home in a 6/11 game. In the 3/14 match-up Nashville is a bit closer to Columbus for the underdog Belmont but Georgetown is a reasonable 400 mile drive away. It shouldn’t be enough to sway the game but it is a rare location advantage for a 14 seed. In a grouping that should be dominated by Michigan State fans some of the other underdogs might have a slight advantage as those waiting for Michigan State’s late game Friday will certainly be pulling for Belmont and an upset.
Omaha, Nebraska
While bitter rivals Missouri and Kansas may not meet on the court in the near future they can fight it out in the stands in Omaha as those will be the main drawing teams in this grouping. Columbia is just over 300 miles to Omaha for a nice edge for Missouri for any of the potential games they will face with Florida and Virginia meeting in the 7/10 game. Kansas enjoys one of the closest to home venues in the tournament playing just over 200 miles away and they will draw Detroit in the first game and the winner of the St. Mary’s/Purdue game so a significant advantage will be enjoyed in both games. While Missouri won the Big XII tournament Kansas was dealt a more favorable spot moving forward as the Sweet 16 in the Midwest is in St. Louis while Missouri will need to win in Phoenix if they hope to make the Final Four.
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
It is rare to see Pitt absent from the NCAA tournament but the city will be hosting opening games on Thursday and Saturday. 1 seed Syracuse draws a favorable pairing although it is still a hefty 360 mile trip. Kansas State and Southern Miss will certainly be making much further journeys in a compelling 8/9 game. Ohio State should be the dominant force in the crowd in Pittsburgh playing just 180 miles away from Columbus. The foes for the Buckeyes don’t have to travel too far however as Loyola-Maryland is less than 250 miles away in Baltimore and things could be interesting in the second game should the Buckeyes advance as 10 seed West Virginia has the most favorable venue in the tournament in terms of distance outside of Duke and North Carolina. Pittsburgh may be hostile territory for the Mountaineers but they are playing just over an hour’s drive away from Morgantown, a significant edge over Gonzaga in the first game and perhaps a boost that could give them a little better shot at an upset should they get a chance at the Buckeyes.
Nashville, Tennessee
Cincinnati made a great run to the Big East final and they were rewarded with very favorable seeding in the Big Dance. The Bearcats not only got a 6 seed despite most projections for a worse placing, they also are in a very favorable venue in Nashville, just 270 miles away. Texas faces very long travel as does Florida State and St. Bonaventure so this may be an opportunity for Cincinnati to have success. In the other pod Michigan and Temple have long trips of similar distance for the potential 4/5 game. Temple will have a big location edge against its potential opponent but that could be softened a bit with California in South Florida playing Wednesday night in Dayton to cut the trip down. Athens is still a good 400 miles from Nashville but Ohio is technically facing a shorter trip to Nashville than favored Michigan, a game many have keyed in on as a possible upset.
NCAA Tournament Betting: Four position matchups you need to know
By Rob Veno
Sportsmemo.com
The NCAA Tournament always brings a lot of unknown teams, players and matchups into its 68 (now 66) team field. It’s a heavy chore to follow and be aware of each team’s style and personnel beyond the surface statistical numbers. Here are five matchups that I feel are very important in Round One:
1. Belmont vs. Georgetown – Belmont has a strength that is almost non-existent in this tournament field. They often play a pair of excellent point guards at the same time. Senior Drew Hanlen (team leading 2.2 assist-turnover ratio) and junior Kerron Johnson (team leading 5.2 assists per game) are different in their styles but very effective at directing the offense. Each is proficient at running the fast break but in the half court, Hanlen is a perimeter based point who leads the team in three point shooting percentage while Johnson is a lightning quick penetrator who excels in the drive and dish game. Johnson won the Alabama high school Mr. Basketball award three years ago, defeating Kentucky one and done stars C DeMarcus Cousins and G Eric Bledsoe. The Bruins ability to go with a pair of experienced and talented PG’s could be problematic for Georgetown which is weak and depth shy in that area. Senior PG Jason Clark has a 0.8 assist-to-turnover ratio and the team’s leading assist men are C Henry Sims and PF Julian Vaughan.
2. Montana vs. Wisconsin – It has been correctly analyzed and stated by many over the past four weeks that as Wisky PG Jordan Taylor goes, so go the Badgers. Taylor’s season has been filled with peaks and valleys and Wisconsin needs his best in order to advance. Peaking in their tournament opener could be made extremely difficult by Montana’s floor general and best player, Will Cherry. While totally unrecognized outside the Big Sky Conference and college basketball aficionados, Cherry was named the conferences “Defensive Player of the Year”. His quickness and devotion to shut down defense could be troublesome for Taylor here. Taylor will also have to guard Cherry who is Montana’s leading scorer at 16.0 ppg. If this matchup neutralizes itself, the game becomes like a tie-breaker scenario and moves on to the next best players. As unlikely as it seems, that honor falls to a pair of 7 footers who specialize in shooting threes. Wisconsin junior Jared Berggren is better known but Grizzlies senior Derek Selvig could be the better player. It’s rare to see a pair of centers challenge their opponent to defend at the arc but Berggren (41-of-111, 36.9%) and Selvig (37-of-85, 43.5%) will do that at times during this game. Overall, Selvig may just have the better overall inside-outside offensive skills making this another tough matchup for Wisconsin.
3. Ohio State vs. East Bracket – This one is more for everyone filling out a bracket sheet for a contest beginning tomorrow. You can look below in this Sportsmemo blog and see who each of the handicappers selected to go to the Final Four. I personally chose Ohio State to win the East Regional and reach the Final Four for one reason, Buckeyes PG Aaron Craft. OSU’s path to the Sweet 16 is made easy because Craft can effectively quiet any of the point guards they may face. The defensive wiz will overwhelm Gonzaga’s underclass duo of Kevin Pangos and David Stockton and he should negate West Virginia’s Darrell “Truck” Bryant or the freshman duo of Jabarie Hinds/Gary Browne should HC Bob Huggins take Bryant off the ball. The most worrisome matchup prior to a potential regional finals date with Syracuse would be Cincinnati and PG Cashmere Wright. In that matchup, Craft would likely take to being more disruptive on Wright’s perimeter shot than stealing the ball. Florida State’s Luke Loucks at 6’5” with more glide than quickness would have a nightmare against Craft who can get low and pick his pocket. If the Buckeyes surrounding pieces do their jobs, Craft’s PG defense will get them to New Orleans.
4. New Mexico vs. Long Beach State – With it looking more and more like Big West Defensive Player of the Year Larry Anderson will either not play at all or play hindered (sprained knee), LBSU faces a pair of dreadful matchups. 6’7” swingman Tony Snell of New Mexico (team’s 3rd leading scorer 11.0 ppg) would’ve been Anderson’s to check and healthy, he would have taken that prong out of the Lobos attack. Now, Snell could play a major offensive role in this contest. Additionally, 49ers seniors either T.J. Robinson at 6’8 205 lbs. or Eugene Phelps 6’7” 225 lbs. will draw one of the nations most unheralded post players Drew Gordon. The UCLA transfer goes 6’9” 245 lbs. and is the type of inside bully that Long Beach does not see in conference play and has not seen since Kansas PF Thomas Robinson lit them up for 26 points on 10-of-14 71% shooting. The good news for the “Beach” is that PG Casper Ware may be able to pick on Lobos sophomore counterpart Kendall Williams a bit but can he do enough?
NCAA Tournament Report
By Steve Merril
Covers.com
South Region
The South is the toughest region according to the ‘true seeds’ of the NCAA tournament committee. The top four lines have Kentucky, Duke, Baylor, and Indiana. Combined, those four teams have a ‘true seeds’ rating of 31, the highest of the four regions. To compare, the West has a true seed rating of 38. However, aside from two teams (Kentucky and Wichita State), we really can’t see any other team making it to the Final Four. The Wildcats and Shockers are perhaps the two best teams in the South, but unfortunately only one of them will be able to advance past the Sweet Sixteen when they are scheduled to meet.
Kentucky will come in focused after losing to Vanderbilt in the SEC championship game as an 8-point favorite. The same can be said of Wichita State as they lost to Illinois State in the semifinal of the Missouri Valley tournament as a 12-point favorite. Kentucky (32-2 SU) is the most talented team in the country, but we’ve seen head coach John Calipari mismanage other talented teams in this tournament in the past. Calipari has yet to win a National Championship despite two Final Four appearances with UMass in 1996 and Memphis in 2008. Kentucky was favored by single digits in 10 games this season; the Wildcats went 8-2 SU but just 4-6 ATS in those competitive contests. Wichita State went a superb 27-5 SU this season and they closed the season on an 8-2 ATS run. The Shockers are excellent on both ends of the court, and they had tournament success last season as they won 5 consecutive games on their way to a NIT championship.
West Region
The West is the weakest of the four regions as Michigan State, Missouri, Marquette, and Louisville have a combined ‘true seeds’ rating of 38. The Spartans are the #1 seed in the West, and they are the only #1 seed to have won their conference tournament. But they’ll face an incredibly difficult second round game against the winner of the 8 vs. 9 game between Memphis and Saint Louis. Both of those teams closed the season strong as Memphis won 20 of their last 23 games, while going 10-1 ATS over their final eleven contests. Saint Louis won 12 of their final 15 games, but the Billikens were an uninspiring 4-4-2 ATS over their final ten games of the season.
Louisville is looking to repeat what their conference rival Connecticut did last year. The Huskies went on to win the 2011 National Championship as a #3 seed after winning 5 straight games to win the Big East tournament. This season Louisville is the #4 seed and the Cardinals only had to win 4 games to take the conference tournament. Their play was highly impressive and it’s clear that they are playing their best basketball right now. Louisville’s defense is outstanding as they are holding opponents to just 61.2 points per game on 37.9% shooting from the field and 30.8% shooting from three-point land. The Cardinals also come into the tournament on a perfect 4-0 ATS run.
East Region
The top half of the East bracket is much tougher than the bottom half. Syracuse, Wisconsin, and Vanderbilt are grouped in the top, while the lower tier has Ohio State and a rag bag bunch of questionable entrants like Cincinnati, Texas, and West Virginia. The Bonnies of St. Bonaventure are also in that group and they only got into the field of 68 after their upset win in the A-10 tournament championship game as a 3.5-point underdog versus Xavier. Overall, the East has a 34 ‘true seeds’ rating, but we see that as too high considering the questionable makeup of many teams in this region.
Gonzaga received the worst geographical location for any team as the Zags will have to travel over 2,200 miles to get to Pittsburgh from Spokane, WA. Their opponent is West Virginia who will only have to travel 75 miles and be basically be playing a home game. Gonzaga got a raw deal, but the Zags have the talent to overcome it and win at least one game in this tournament. They didn’t play the toughest of schedules, but they did beat Notre Dame by 20 points (73-53) and only lost by 7 points (74-67) to Michigan State. The Zags were terrible against the spread down the stretch as they went a bankroll-busting 5-10-1 ATS over their last 16 lined games. Gonzaga went 25-6 SU this season, while their first round opponent (West Virginia) is the only team to earn an at-large bid in the tournament field with less than 20 wins; the Mountaineers are 19-13. WVU also has the worst RPI rating (57) of any at-large team this year.
Midwest Region
The Midwest has strong teams throughout the bracket and they come in with a ‘true seeds’ rating of 33. North Carolina, Kansas, Georgetown, and Michigan makeup the top four lines. But there’s plenty of quality in the lower seeds with the likes of Creighton and Temple, along with the unusually strong 14 and 15 seeds of Belmont and Detroit. North Carolina and Kansas are still the class of this region with NBA talent throughout their rosters. But their roads to the Final Four are not easy, and if either team gets to New Orleans, they certainly will have earned it.
Belmont was everybody’s upset pick in the first round last season. Unfortunately for the Bruins and their backers, they got waxed by Wisconsin 72-58. The slow pace of Wisconsin really frustrated Belmont, and the committee did them no favors in matching them up with Georgetown who also plays at a slow pace. The Bruins are a year older and they now have the tournament experience under their belts so they should play much better this time around. Belmont lost a one-point heartbreaker (77-76) at Duke in their first game of the season and that game shows how capable they are. Belmont won their conference tournament, but they went 0-3 ATS in the process as the Bruins were a double-digit favorite in every game. Georgetown has lost in the first round of this tournament in each of the last two years with both of those losses coming versus a double-digit seed.