NCAA Tournament Trends 3/22 - 3/23

WISCONSIN vs. SYRACUSE
WISCONSIN: 5-1 ATS on neutral court
SYRACUSE: 0-5 ATS in the Sweet 16

CINCINNATI vs. OHIO ST
CINCINNATI: 6-1 ATS off BB wins by 6 pts or less
OHIO ST: 13-4 Under vs. Big East

FLORIDA vs. MARQUETTE
FLORIDA: 8-1 ATS Away off win by 20+ pts
MARQUETTE: 0-5 ATS after holding prev. opp to 33% shooting or less

LOUISVILLE vs. MICHIGAN ST
LOUISVILLE: 6-0 ATS on neutral court
MICHIGAN ST: 2-6 ATS as neutral court favorite of 6 pts or less

INDIANA vs. KENTUCKY
INDIANA: 8-1 ATS vs. non-conference
KENTUCKY: 14-7 Under off win by 15+

XAVIER vs. BAYLOR
XAVIER: 3-0 ATS in Sweet 16 games
BAYLOR: 25-12 Over off ATS win

OHIO U vs. N CAROLINA
OHIO U: 6-1 Over off win by 6 pts or less
N CAROLINA: 6-1 ATS in Sweet 16 games

NC STATE vs. KANSAS
NC STATE: 6-0 ATS in March
KANSAS: 7-1 Under in Sweet 16 games

Sweet 16 & Elite 8 Angles
By Marc Lawrence
VegasInsider.com

There is nothing sweeter this time of the year than being alive in the NCAA Tournament. For those teams that survived the opening two rounds of this main event it's on to the Sweet 16 and, hopefully, the Eilte 8 this weekend.

From our Sweet 16 Tournament Guide, here are notes and trends of the teams that have arrived.

SWEET 16 ROUND NOTES

#1 Seed favs pts are 4-14 ATS
Favorites of 9 > pts are 20-9-1 ATS vs opp off BB SU and ATS wins
Favorites off BB SU wins of 15 > pts are 12-4 ATS
Underdogs of 11 > pts are 7-2 ATS

Best Team ATS record in this round

Louisville: 5-0
North Carolina: 4-0
Xavier: 3-0-1
Michigan State: 6-1

Worst Team ATS record in this round

Syracuse: 0-5
Ohio State: 0-3

Best Conference ATS records in this round

Atlantic 10: 6-1-1
Big 12: 6-1-1
SEC: 10-3 as dogs

Worst Conference ATS records in this round

Big East: 1-7 as favs < 7 pts, Big 10: 1-7

ELITE 8 ROUND NOTES

#1 Seed favs > 7 pts are 1-6-1 ATS vs foe off BB ATS wins

#2 Seeds are 2-10-1 ATS off a DD ATS win
#3 Seeds are 1-6 ATS
#4 Seeds are 8-1 ATS
#5 Seeds are 7-0 ATS
#6 Seeds are 0-7 SU and 2-5 ATS
#7 Seeds are 0-5 SU
#8 Seeds are 4-1 ATS
Teams that score 67 pts are 27-7 SU and 24-8-2 ATS
Teams off BB ATS losses are 4-1 ATS
Teams with Revenge are 14-4-1 ATS
Dogs off 3 straight DD wins are 1-4-1 ATS

Best Conference ATS record in this round

Big East: 5-0-1 as dogs
Big 10: 7-1 as dogs 6 < pts
SEC: 4-1 as favs off DD ATS win.

Worst Conference ATS record in this round

Big 12: 0-10
Big East: 1-6-1 off SU dog win

COACH ME IF YOU CAN

Florida's Billy Donovan is 12-3 SU and 11-4 ATS in the NCAA tournament from the Sweet 16 out.

SWEET 16 & ELITE 8 TRENDS & ANGLES

We have profiled all the seeds for every round going back the last 11 NCAA Tournaments, so after bringing you the seeding trends for the first few rounds last week (which saw two 15-seeds advance after only one had done so the previous 11 years), this week's Trends & Angles looks at the trends for the Sweet 16 on Thursday and Friday and for the Elite Eight on Saturday and Sunday.

All quoted ATS records in this piece are for the last 11 NCAA Tournaments since the 2001 tournament (following the 2000-01 season). Note that no 14-seed, 15-seed or obviously 16-seed has gone as far as the Sweet 16 in the last 11 seasons.

One-seeds: There were 39 top seeds that advanced to the Sweet 16 the last 11 years and they went 32-7 straight up, but two of those losses came last season when Ohio State lost to Kentucky and Duke was blown out by Arizona. The one-seeds also had a 1-2 record ATS last season, with Kansas being the only team to prevail in a rout over Richmond. The one-seeds are 22-17, 56.4 percent record ATS in this round.

On the other hand, the Elite Eight has been more of a graveyard of one-seeds, as they are a modest 17-15 straight up in this round with Kansas being the latest Goliath to fall vs. VCU last year. It is no wonder then that all four one-seeds have reached the Final Four only once. One-seeds are a terrible 12-20 ATS in the Elite Eight.

Two-seeds: The good news regarding two-seeds is that they went 20-8 straight up in the Sweet 16 the last 11 years. The not so good news is that they were a losing 14-13-1 ATS in those games. The two-seeds did go 2-1 straight up and ATS last year with the loser being San Diego State vs. the eventual National Champions from Connecticut.

The news does not get better for two-seeds in the Elite Eight, where they went only 10-10 straight up and 9-10-1 ATS with both two-seeds having their season end in this round last season, as Florida lost to eighth seeded Butler and North Carolina fell to fourth-seeded Kentucky, albeit as a small underdog. Perhaps most interesting is the fact that the two-seeds are now 1-5-1 ATS when facing lower seeds in the Elite Eight the last 11 seasons, compared to 8-5, 61.5 percent both straight up and ATS when matched up vs. top seeds.

Three-seeds: The 27 three-seeds that reached the Sweet 16 since 2001 went 13-14 straight up and 14-13 ATS, and they were quite formful in that they went 8-4 straight up and 7-5 ATS vs. lower seeds and 5-10 straight up and 7-8 ATS vs. two-seeds. Two three-seeds reached the Sweet 16 last year, both against two-seeds, and they split straight up and ATS with BYU losing to Florida but Connecticut beating San Diego State as mentioned.

Three-seeds that advanced to the Elite Eight went 7-6 both straight up and ATS. Believe it or not, only one of those three-seeds was a favorite, and that was last season when Connecticut was favored by three points over the five-seeds from Arizona and failed to cover in a 65-63 victory. If you toss out one game that was a Pick'em, the three-seeds went an impressive 6-5 straight up as Elite Eight underdogs the last 11 tournaments.

Four-seeds: A surprisingly low 16 four-seeds advanced to the Sweet 16 since 2001, and they continued to under-achieve by going a dismal 4-12 straight up. Granted, Kentucky bucked this trend last year by upsetting Ohio State, but Wisconsin was not as fortunate, losing to the eight-seeded but eventual National Finalist Butler. It should be noted that the four-seeds did go 8-8 ATS in this round however, so not all the losses were routs.

The four-seeds then went on to go 3-1 straight up and 2-2 ATS in the Elite Eight. Kentucky won as a four-seed in this round last year, but keep in mind that the Wildcats were small favorites over second-seeded North Carolina in that contest.

Five-seeds: Even though the 12-seeds upsetting the five-seeds were the most common upsets in the Round of 64 the last 11 seasons, the five-seeds that survived their first game actually did quite well in the following rounds. For instance, the 18 five-seeds that reached the Sweet 16 the last 11 years are more than the 16 four-seeds to reach this round in that same period. Unfortunately, most of the fives met their demise here going 5-13 straight up, although to their credit, they went 10-8 ATS. Arizona won straight up as a five in this round last season as it upset Duke.

In one of the bigger oddities of the NCAA Tournament, the five-seeds that reached the Elite Eight went a perfect 5-0 ATS the last 11 seasons. The first four five-seeds all won outright to reach the Final Four until Arizona became the first covering five-seed not to win outright last year when it fell two points shy against Connecticut.

Six-seeds: There were 11 six-seeds to reach the Sweet 16 the last 11 years, and they went 3-8 straight up. No six-seed reached this point last season however.

The three six-seeds that reached the Elite Eight since 2001 all lost outright, but they did go 2-1 ATS. That lone ATS loss was by the last six-seed to reach the Elite Eight, which was Tennessee in 2010.

Seven-seeds: Eight seven-seeds have advanced to the Sweet 16 since 2001, and they went an impressive 3-5 straight up, although the identical 3-5 ATS mark is not as impressive. Seven-seeds have been absent from this round since West Virginia in 2008, which lost outright as a small favorite vs. Xavier.

The Elite Eight was the end of the road for the three seven-seeds that got that far, although they did go 2-1 ATS.

Eight-seeds: Eight-seeds have obviously had a tough time reaching the Sweet 16 since those that have reached the Round of 32 were always matched up with the one-seeds that round. Still, three eight-seeds did manage to reach the Sweet 16 and they actually went 2-1 straight up, as Butler last year followed in the footsteps of the 2004 Alabama Crimson Tide, who beat fifth-seeded Syracuse in this round.

Butler then became the first eight-seed to reach the Final Four over our 11-year study last season, as Alabama was routed by Connecticut in 2004.

Nine-seeds: The nine seeds that advanced to the Round of 32 were also all paired up with one-seeds, and only two of them survived. Both then lost straight up and ATS in the Sweet 16, with the most recent being Northern Iowa in 2010.

10-seeds: A respectable total of eight 10-seeds have advanced to the Sweet 16 the last 11 years, which is more than the eight-seeds and nine-seeds combined and also just as many as the seven-seeds. The 10-seeds went 2-6 straight up and 3-5 ATS this round. Florida State lost as a 10-seed to VCU last season and the last10-seed win in the Sweet 16 was Davidson in 2008.

The two 10-seeds that reached the Elite Eight both lost straight up, although that Davidson team was the only one to cover the spread as it nearly pulled off another shocker vs. Kansas before succumbing by just two points.

11-seeds: There were six 11-seeds to reach the Sweet 16 the last 11 seasons with two of them coming last year, and those giant-slayers went 3-3 both straight up and ATS. The latest winner was VCU last season on its way to the Final Four, while the latest loser was Marquette, which got trounced by North Carolina last year.

The 11-seeds then went a surprising 2-1 straight up and ATS in Elite Eight also with VCU joining its fellow CAA member in George Mason in 2006 as the only 11-seeds to advance to the Final Four.

12-seeds: An abnormally high nine 12-seeds advanced to the Sweet 16 over the last 11 tournaments, but most of those Cinderella runs ended here with only one of those winning outright while going 2-7 ATS. Richmond was the latest 11th-seeded casualty in a blowout loss to Kansas last year.

The Missouri Tigers were the only 12-seed to advance to the Elite Eight way back in 2002, and they then pushed the six-point spread in an 81-75 loss to Oklahoma.

13-seeds: Only one 13-seed reached the Sweet 16 since 2001 and the 2006 Bradley Bears were blown out by Memphis.

Sweet 16 Tournament Trends
Bovada Sportsbook

THURSDAY

East Region (at Boston)
#4 Wisconsin (26-9 SU, 18-14 ATS) vs. #1 Syracuse (33-2 SU, 17-17 ATS), 7:15 pm CBS
#6 Cincinnati (26-10 SU, 17-13 ATS) vs. #2 Ohio State (29-7 SU, 18-14 ATS), 9:45 pm CBS

Team Trends
Syracuse 8-1 SU, 2-7 ATS past 9 games
Syracuse 2-7 ATS past 9 games as favorite
Syracuse 0-4 ATS in Sweet 16 since 2001
Wisconsin 4-1 ATS past 5 games
Cincinnati 8-3 ATS past 11 games as underdog
Cincinnati 8-1 ATS past 9 games overall
Ohio State 0-3 ATS in Sweet 16 since 2001
Ohio State OVER is 8-1 past 9 games overall
Ohio State 10-4 ATS past 14 games as fave of 8 or more points

West Region (at Phoenix)
#4 Louisville (28-9 SU, 20-13-1 ATS) vs. #1 Michigan State (29-7 SU, 23-11 ATS), 7:47 pm TBS
#7 Florida (25-10 SU, 15-15 ATS) vs. #3 Marquette (27-7 SU, 17-12-2 ATS), 10:17 pm TBS

Team Trends
Michigan State 5-0 ATS in Sweet 16 since 2001
Michigan State 2-0 vs. Louisville since 1999 (won by 12 each time)
Louisville won and covered 6 straight games
Louisville UNDER is 9-1 past 10 games
Louisville 8-3 ATS past 11 games as underdog
Marquette 8-2 ATS past 10 games overall
Marquette 9-3-1 ATS past 13 games as favorite
Marquette OVER is 7-1 past 8 games as favorite
Florida 8-2 ATS past 10 tournament games
Florida lost 6 straight as an underdog

FRIDAY

South Region (at Atlanta)
#10 Xavier (23-12 SU, 12-18-3 ATS) vs. #3 Baylor (29-7 SU, 14-14-1 ATS), 7:15 pm CBS
#4 Indiana (27-8 SU, 18-10-1 ATS) vs. #1 Kentucky (34-2 SU, 14-21 ATS), 9:45 pm CBS

Team Trends
Kentucky 16-1 SU past two Marches
Kentucky 9-3 ATS vs. Indiana since 2000
Kentucky just 2-6 ATS past 8 as fave of 9 or more points
Indiana won 3 straight as underdog
Indiana just 4-13 ATS past 17 games as dog of 9 or more
Indiana not won in 19 straight as dog of 9 or more points
Baylor 4-0 ATS past 4 games as favorite
Xavier 17-2-1 ATS past 20 tournament games
Xavier just 3-7-1 ATS past 11 games overall
Xavier played 6 straight OVERs as underdog

Midwest Region (at St. Louis)
#13 Ohio (29-7 SU, 16-13 ATS) vs. #1 North Carolina (31-5 SU, 20-15 ATS), 7:47 pm TBS
#11 NC State (24-12 SU, 17-14-1 ATS) vs. #2 Kansas (29-6 SU, 17-16-1 ATS), 10:17 pm TBS

Team Trends
North Carolina 4-1 ATS past 5 in Sweet 16 action
North Carolina 9-3 ATS past 12 games overall
North Carolina 9-3 ATS past 12 games as favorite
North Carolina 6-1 ATS past 7 as double-digit favorite
Ohio 10-1 SU past 11 games overall
Ohio 12-3 ATS past 15 games as underdog
NC State 7-0-1 ATS past 8 games overall
NC State 8-2 ATS past 10 games as underdog
Kansas UNDER is 7-2 past 9 games in March