NCAA Tourney Theory
By Mr. East
Here we are once again, as the Big Dance contestants have all found their partners, and are ready to see if their dress rehearsals pay dividends over the next three weeks. there are lots of situational systems out there that have varied success over the years come tourney time, but a lot more first round games involving the heavyweights play out more like a waltz, than a quick-step.
Let's take a look at some logic, and equate it to what the oddsmaker's dilemma becomes, and see if we can extract a few winners. Most that wager on sporting event totals prefer the over, simply because they are drawn to high scoring teams, and love the idea that they could have the game won well before the final score. When it comes to basketball, the under the total play is very difficult for the average sports gambler to swallow, because he has nightmares of that under play, that went to overtime, or that under play that saw the refs blowing whistles every 5 seconds as the trailing team fouls continuously, and the parade to the free throw line leads to defeat.
It becomes even harder when you consider the teams that are seeded in the 1-3 positions in your bracket, after all these are the top teams in America, and for the most part love to run the floor, and can score with the best of them. The oddsmakers realize that these teams will draw a watchful eye on totals going over the top, and pad the numbers upward, because they know their clients tendencies. Then watch as their clients push an already inflated total up further, creating a lot of value on the under.
The numbers bear it out and the quick-step, often turns into a waltz as their opponents, always over matched, try to play the shot clock game, and shorten the contest, hoping to catch a hot hand and lightning in a bottle. Maybe those lightning bolts don't strike often, as the number 1, 2, and 3 seeds own a combined 292-20 SU mark since 1985. The total has been the place to be, especially if you can stomach being on the low side of it.
The last 143 NCAA Tournament games in the first round involving the #1, 2, and 3 seeds have collectively gone 88-55 to the under! That is 61.5% winners. So while the lightning isn't striking for the Cinderella's in these games, they can make their last dance a waltz and make the savvy under player the Cinderella of the dance!