NCAAB betting trends, odds and predictions for Monday, December 19th, 2016
NCAAB Knowledge
Eastern Michigan is coached by former Syracuse assistant; the 2-3 zone is no secret to ehm. Eagles are 3-4 vs D-I teams, losing by 3-27-8 points to teams ranked in top 110- their best win was over #164 Omaha. Syracuse lost at home to Georgetown Saturday; they’re 1-4 vs top 100 teams, wth only win by 21 over Monmouth. Orange lost four of last six games; they’re shooting 40.1% on arc (#26), have #16 eFG% defense but some of that is from playing in a dome. ACC home favorites are 34-21 vs spread; MAC road underdogs are 18-16.
LSU is 7-2 vs schedule #232; they’re #326 experience team- Tigers are 6-0 at home, 2-2 vs top 100 teams, with losses to Wichita/VCU on neutral floor in Bahamas. Charleston is 8-3 vs schedule #192; they’re #295 experience team that is forcing turnovers 22.9% of time (#31) but shooting just 28.7% (#329) in arc. Cougars play pace #342; they allowed Wake Forest is only team that scored more than 68 points against them. SEC home favorites are 24-26 against the spread; CAA road underdogs are 16-9.
SMU won 85-70 at Stanford LY, shooting 59.6% inside arc; Mustangs are 8-3 vs schedule #164; their bench is in bottom 10 in country in minutes, which is why one of their subs quit last week. SMU lost by 5 at USC of Pac-12 last month; they’re 3-3 vs top 100 teams, beating TCU by 15 in last one. Stanford is 7-3 vs schedule #41, losing three of four top 50 games- they lost at Kansas by 15 in only true road game. Cardinal has #302 eFG%. AAC home favorites are 12-9 vs spread; Pac-12 underdogs are 10-15 away from home.
Colorado State was 32-42 on foul line in 83-75 home win over LMU last year; Lions were 12-16 on line in game LMU led by 3 at half. Rams are 4-0 vs teams ranked outside top 200, winning by 11-8-22-17 points; they’re starting three sophs, two seniors, an odd mix. LMU won its last two games by one point each; they lost by 15 at Nevada, won by 1 at Northridge in only two true road games. Mountain West home favorites are 16-12 vs spread; WCC road underdogs are 9-9. LMU coach Dunlap won D-II national title in Colorado with Metro State.
Mississippi State is 6-3 vs schedule #305; they’re 4-0 vs teams ranked outside top 200, winning by 4-7-6-17 points. Bulldogs are forcing turnovers 21.4% of time- they start two frosh, two sophs, are least experienced team in country. Southern Miss hasn’t played in nine days; they lost their last four games, by 23-11-49-7 points. Eagles are turning ball over 22.6% of time, are shooting 26.7% on arc- they lost to LSU by 17 in only other games vs SEC foe. SEC home favorites are 24-26 vs spread; C-USA road underdogs are 22-23.
Troy is #91 experience team that lost 82-77 at unbeaten USC Saturday- they led USC by 10 early in second half. Troy is 1-4 on road with only win by hoop at Hawai’i; their only other top 200 game was 23-point loss at UAB. Wyoming won its last five games including a win at Northern Iowa; Cowboys are 2-1 vs teams outside top 200, with wins by 19-10 and a loss at Pacific. Wyoming is starting four juniors and a senior with a new coach. Mountain West home favorites are 16-12 vs spread; Sun Belt road underdogs are 15-22.
Colorado beat Air Force the last five years, the last four all by 11+ points; Buffaloes won by 13 at Portland, lost by 8 at BYU in only true road games. Colorado has #23 eFG% defense but doesn’t force lot of turnovers. Air Force lost five of last six games but only one of the losses was by more than nine points; Falcons lost by 9 to Akron in only top 100 game- their best win is over #133 Missouri State. Air Force is making 44.1% of its 3’s, #2 in country. Pac-12 favorites are 11-9 away from home; Mountain West home underdogs are 4-3.
UNLV got drilled in second half at Oregon Saturday, has Kansas coming in Thursday; this is big game for them to avoid losing streak heading into league play, against Southern Illinois squad that is 6-5 vs schedule #209- Salukis are 1-3 in true road games, with only win at school that is outside top 300. UNLV is 6-5 vs schedule #309; they’re 0-4 vs top 200 teams, but three of those losses were to top 50 teams. SIU starts two sophs, two seniors; they’re #72 experience team. Mountain West home favorites are 16-12 vs spread; MVC road underdogs are 7-9.
Coastal Carolina was 7-11 on arc, shot 57% inside arc in 71-63 win at Wofford LY; CCU was u 17 in first half- they’re 5-7 this year vs schedule #120 in their first year as a Sun Belt team; Chanticleers won by 3-15-30 in their only three games vs teams ranked outside top 150. Wofford is 1-7 vs D-I teams with three non-D-I wins; Terriers split pair of games vs teams outside top 200- they’ve played schedule #29 to this point. Sun Belt home favorites are 7-7 vs spread; SoCon road underdogs are 18-13.
Furman is 2-5 in games decided by 6 or less points; their last three games (2-1) were all decided by 3 or less. Paladins are 3-3 in true road games, winning last two at Liberty/Gardner-Webb (which just beat Nebraska). Tennessee Tech is 2-9 vs schedule #221; they’re 0-6 vs top 200 teams, only two D-I wins over Alabama A&M, rated worst team in country. That said, Tech lost by 8 at Michigan State, by 6 at Tennessee; they must have some talent. SoCon favorites are 6-2 away from home; OVC home underdogs are 4-7.
Oral Roberts lost by point to unbeaten Creighton Saturday; Eagles were outscored 6-0 over final 5:09 of game. Despite that encouraging score, ORU is 0-10 vs D-I teams this year with five top 100 losses. Little Rock is 9-2 vs schedule #344; their losses are to Idaho/Pepperdine. Trojans won by 2-5 points in only two true road games at Central Arkansas/Northern Arizona. UALR is forcing turnovers 21.2% of time- they have game at Florida on Wednesday. Sun Belt favorites are 6-6 away from home; Summit League home underdogs are 1-3 agains the spread.
Belmont’s game at Green Bay over weekend was postponed by weather; Bruins are #47 experience team that is shooting only 29.9% on arc, way worse than they usually do. Belmont was 0-2 vs Horizon teams LY, with two losses by total of six points. Milwaukee is 3-8 vs schedule #98; they’re 0-4 vs teams in top 150, with losses by 14-24-16-2 points. Panthers lost last three games; they’re starting two frosh and a sophomore, have #330 eFG% defense. OVC favorites are 5-1 away from home; Horizon home underdogs are 5-2.
Drake is 0-9 vs D-I teams after losing to Iowa State by 17 Saturday; its coach already quit- they are 0-3 vs teams ranked #200 or lower, losing by 6-6-5 points. Five of Drake’s last six losses were by 6 or less points. South Dakota State won four of last five D-I games after an 0-6 start; Jackrabbits are 3-1 vs teams outside top 200 but are 0-5 in true road games. State won its last two games by total of seven points, beating Murray State in OT last game. MVC home favorites are 18-12 vs spread; Summit League road underdogs are 21-22.
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