NCAAB betting trends, odds and predictions for Tuesday, December 20th, 2016
NCAAB Knowledge
Northeastern is 6-5 but has wins at UConn/Michigan State; they also have three losses to teams ranked outside top 200. Huskies played three starters 31:00+ in win in East Lansing Sunday- they made 11-23 on arc- they’re 4-1 if they shoot 35%+ on arc, 2-4 if they do not. Oakland is 9-1 but has game with Michigan State tomorrow, then Georgia at home Friday, which is weird. Grizzlies play pace #25, don’t defend arc very well (36.1%). Horizon home favorites are 7-14 vs spread; CAA road underdogs are 16-10.
James Madison beat Richmond 51-46/87-75 last two years, but Dukes fired their coach after a 21-11 season LY, now they’re 1-9 with #5 experience team in country- they’re turning ball over 24.9% of time (#344)- their only win was over #345 Longwood. Richmond is 5-5 vs schedule #271; they lost by 5 at Bucknell in their only true road game. Spiders are 5-0 vs teams ranked outside top 200; their losses are all to teams ranked #126 or higher. CAA home favorites are 2-8 vs spread; A-14 road underdogs are 12-12.
Georgia Tech won four of last five games with Georgia; Dawgs lost last two visits here, by 8-7 points. Georgia is 7-3 vs schedule #104; they lost by 10 at Clemson in only true road game this season- their three losses are all to top 40 teams (Tech is #119). Jackets are 6-3 vs schedule #283; they’re 1-2 vs top 100 teams, winning in OT at VCU, losing by 23 at Tennessee, 7 at Penn State. Tech is turning ball over 21.6% of time, but they do have #45 eFG% defense. SEC favorites are 11-7 away from home; ACC underdogs are 9-15, 1-1 at home.
Maryland is 11-1 vs schedule #224; Terps are #322 experience team- but PG Trimble is carrying team. Maryland is 5-0 vs teams ranked outside top 200, with three wins by 14+ points. This is Maryland’s last game before conference play. Charlotte is 0-3 vs top 100 teams, losing by 22-17-41 points; they’re forcing turnovers 21.2% of time, but they’re one of worst rebounding teams in country. 49ers play pace #26; hard to play fast pace vs better athletes. Big 14 home favorites are 27-31 vs spread; C-USA road underdogs are 22-24.
UL-Lafayette shot 30.6% from floor in 76-56 loss at Pepperdine LY; Cajuns are 9-3 vs schedule #274- they’re #255 experience team. ULL is forcing turnovers 23% of time- they play pace #21, are 6-0 at home, with only decent win over La Tech. Pepperdine lost its last five games; they’ve been off for nine days since 93-67 loss at USC. Waves allowed 86.6 pts/game in last five games; they’re 0-4 vs teams in top 150, losing by 11-26-8-26 points. Sun Belt home favorites are 7-7 vs spread; WCC road underdogs are 10-9.
Creighton is 11-0 but was life-and-death to beat lowly Oral Roberts Saturday, outscoring ORU 6-0 over final 5:06 for 66-65 win. Bluejays won 77–62 at Nebraska in only true road game- they also won tourney on neutral floor in Virgin Islands. Arizona State is 6-5 vs schedule #125; they’re 1-4 vs top 100 teams, with only win at San Diego State. Sun Devils have #284 eFG% defense; their subs played total of only 30:00 in last game, a home loss to New Mexico State. Big East road favorites are 5-3 vs spread; Pac-12 underdogs are 10-20, 1-4 at home.
Arizona is 11-2 vs schedule #131; Wildcats are #325 experience team- they’re thin, with subs playing #291 minutes. Arizona’s only two losses are to top 20 teams (Butler/Gonzaga)- they beat Texas A&M in Houston Saturday. New Mexico lost by 5-13 points in only true road games; they’re 1-4 vs teams in top 125, splitting pair with #111 New Mexico State. Williams scored 19 points in each of his two games since coming back from a concussion. Pac-12 home favorites are 25-25; Mountain West road underdogs are 15-7.
Oregon won its last eight games, but their best player Boucher missed Saturday’s 83-63 win over UNLV (check status). Ducks are having trouble getting whole team healthy/on the floor- they force turnovers 21% of time, block 23% of opponents shots and are 4-0 vs teams ranked outside top 100, with all four wins by 14+ points. Fresno State is 6-3 vs schedule #302; they’re 3-1 in true road games, with all three wins by 5 or less points or in OT. Pac-12 home favorites are 25-25; Mountain West road underdogs are 15-7.
Washington is #344 experience team that is talented but they can’t defend. Huskies lost four of last five games, with only win 92-86 over Western Michigan team that had just lost a player who was accused of murder. Washington allowed 90 pts/game in last five games. Cal Poly coach Callero won big at Seattle U, his last stop; his Mustangs are 5-6 vs schedule #127, playing pace #311. Cal Poly lost to Arizona State by 22, Cal by 16 in their other two Pac-12 games. Pac-12 home favorites are 25-25; Big West road underdogs are 11-24.
Monmouth is 9-2 vs schedule #147; they won 82-79 at Memphis LW, one of program’s best wins ever. Hawks are #38 experience team playing pace #64- they force turnovers 21.1% of time. Princeton has injury issues; they’re 0-4 vs top 100 teams, with losses by 9-11-11-9 points. Tigers haven’t beaten a team ranked above #213. Monmouth starts three seniors, two sophs; they’ve won their last eight games, but except for Memphis, that was against stiffs. MAAC home favorites are 2-4 vs spread; Ivy League road underdogs are 11-11.
Cal-Riverside is 0-6 vs D-I teams, losing last game at home to Montana; Highlanders beat Northern Colorado 77-66 at home LY, after leading by 23 at the half. UCR has 2nd-worst eFG% in country, shooting 28% on arc, 36.2% inside arc and they start three seniors. Bears are 1-7 vs D-I teams; they’re #343 experience team, plus they’ve got new coach. Northern’s only D-I win was by 22 over #12 Sacred Heart. Big Sky home favorites are 3-10 vs spread; Big West road underdogs are 11-24. NCU starts three sophomores and a freshman.
Iowa is 6-5 vs schedule #169 with #340 experience team; they beat Iowa State by 14, Northern Iowa by 23 in last two games after a 4-5 start, so they’re getting better. Hawkeyes are playing #34 pace; their bench plays 6th-most minutes in country. North Dakota lost by 8 at UNI in its only top 100 game; Hawks are 5-4 vs schedule #95- three of their four losses are by 8 or less points. ND starts two seniors, two sophomores- they split with rival North Dakota State. Big 14 home favorites are 27-31 vs spread; Big Sky road underdogs are 27-28.
Portland beat Portland State last four years, by 21-16-12-6 points; Vikings lost 81-60/83-71 in last two visits here. Portland is 7-3 vs schedule #198- they’ve got new coach and #77 experience team. All three Portland losses are to top 60 teams. Portland State is 2-1 vs WCC teams, beating USF by 4, Pepperdine by 6- they lost by 18 at LMU. Vikings have #343 eFG% defense- teams are shooting 58.3% inside arc against them, which is really bad. WCC home favorites are 22-15 vs spread; Big Sky road underdogs are 27-28.
Armadillosports.com
ASU hosts undefeated Creighton Tuesday
By: Zach Cohen
StatFox.com
Creighton will be looking to stay unbeaten with a win over Arizona State in Tempe on Tuesday.
The Bluejays are off to an absurd start to the year, as they are 11-0 SU and 7-3 ATS thus far. They haven’t necessarily faced cupcakes either. Creighton hosted Wisconsin in the Jays’ second game of the year, and the team won 79-67 as a 1.5-point home underdog. That Badgers team was returning all five starters from a team that was 10 seconds away from going to the Elite Eight a year ago. The Jays also went into Nebraska three games ago and beat the Cornhuskers 77-62 as four-point favorites. Arizona State, meanwhile, has now lost three of its past five games. The Sun Devils have five losses on the year, but two of those came at the hands of Kentucky and Purdue. Still, the team lacks quality wins right now. Their most impressive outing was a 74-63 win as 8.5-point underdogs against San Diego State on Dec. 10, and the team will need to play like that in order to upset Creighton in this one. It’s worth noting that these teams met in December last year as well, and Arizona State won 79-77 as an eight-point underdog. This is, however, a much different Bluejays team. It’s also worth pointing out that Creighton is 11-3 ATS when playing only its second game in eight days over the past two seasons. The Bluejays won’t lose this one due to a lack of rest.
If Creighton is going to improve to 12-0 then G Marcus Foster (18.2 PPG) is going to need to come up big in this tough road spot on Tuesday. Foster is one of the best scorers in the Big East, as he is incredibly efficient for a guard. Foster is shooting 50.7% from the floor this season, and he’s also knocking down 41.4% of his threes. He can really shoot the ball, but he also has the athleticism to attack the rim. Look for him to come out and be very aggressive in this one. G Maurice Watson Jr. (13.1 PPG, 9.2 APG, 1.6 SPG), meanwhile, is the leader of this team. Watson Jr. is one of the best point guards in the nation, and he has actually recorded double-doubles (points and assists) in three of his past four games. He scored 25 points and dished out eight assists in the only game where he didn’t record one. Watson Jr. is one of the rare college point guards that love to get his teammates involved. He should be able to rack up 10 assists in a game that figures to be extremely high-scoring. The x-factor in this game is going to be lengthy freshman F Justin Patton (11.8 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 1.5 BPG), though. Patton is extremely active around the rim on both ends of the floor, and he’ll need to dominate the paint in this game. It is, however, important that he avoids foul trouble.
If Arizona State is going to pull off the upset on Tuesday then G Tra Holder (15.6 PPG) is going to need to find a way to be effective. Holder was miserable in the loss to Purdue three games ago, finishing his 23 minutes of play with just two points on 1-of-8 shooting. He did, however, follow it up with 17 points, five boards and four assists in the win over San Diego State. The Sun Devils need Holder to play more like that in this one. Gs Torian Graham (16.5 PPG) and Shannon Evans II (16.1 PPG, 4.5 APG, 3.4 RPG, 1.1 SPG) will also need to be ready to go in this one. Both guys can score the basketball, but it is Evans II that has the ability to change the game. He is a do-it-all type of guy for this Sun Devils team, and he’ll need to stuff the stat sheet on Tuesday. The last guy that needs to be mentioned for Arizona State is F Obinna Oleka (12.1 PPG, 9.8 RPG, 1.4 SPG). Oleka is going to find himself matched up with Justin Patton in this game, and he absolutely must hold his own inside. He doesn’t have the height that Patton does, but he needs to find a way to make up for that. If he is not boxing out frequently then Patton will feast around the basket.