NCAAB betting trends, odds and predictions for Wednesday, December 21st, 2016
NCAAB: Streaks, Tips, Notes
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Kentucky at Louisville
After a weekend of exciting college basketball action that saw the Kentucky Wildcats take out the North Carolina Tar Heels in arguably the best game of this early campaign, college basketball gaming enthusiasts have their eyes squarely on this weeks top matchups between 6th-ranked Kentucky Wildcats and 10th-ranked Louisville Cardinals at KFC Yum Center.
John Calipari's Wildcats behind Malik Monk (21.9), De'Aaron Foxno (15.9) leading four players in double digits are no slouches at getting the ball through the hoop netting 95.2 point/game on 49.0% from the field, 34.2% from long range. On the defensive end, Wildcats surrender 71.6 per contest on 39.8% from the field, 28.6% from beyond the arc.
Wildcats are 4-0 (3-1 ATS) away from Rupp Arena this season, all at a neutral site. The fact this one is a true road game should give Kentucky supporters pause as Wildcats were just 4-7 SU/ATS last season in true road games. Although life on the road has not been kind towards Kentucky it's well to note in John Calipari's tenure as head coach in Kentuckt, the Wildcats are 6-1 SU/ATS vs Louisville including 2-1 (3-0 ATS) at this venue.
Rick Pitino's crew, losing the top three scorers from a team that went 23-8 last season are not as potent on the offense end. With just two players in double digits Cardinals drop 78.5 per/contest hitting 43.4% from the field, 32.9% from long range. Defense the moniker for Cardinals with its pressure defense are giving up 59.4 per/contest on 35.9 from the field, 28.7% from outside.
Home court advantage is something Louisville can tap into. The Cardinals tough to topple in front of the home audience have a single blemish in twenty-six contest with a 15-5-1 record in lined games.
When handicapping this contest, a few additional betting trends to ponder. Cardinals have a 0-5 ATS skid vs the SEC, Wildcats have a 5-1 ATS stretch vs. the ACC and are 20-7 ATS running the hardwood against a team with a winning record.
Kentucky, Louisville clash on Wednesday
By: Dave Schoenholt
StatFox.com
#6 Kentucky looks for their fifth straight win over #10 Louisville in one of the most heated rivalries in college sports on Wednesday night.
Coach John Calipari’s Wildcats have won eight of the past nine encounters with Coach Rick Pitino’s Cardinals. The recent one-sidedness of this rivalry hasn’t dimmed the genuine dislike between the two fan bases in Lexington and Louisville that are less than 80 miles apart. Pitino is 5-12 as Louisville’s head man against Kentucky and 1-8 (1-7-1 ATS) against Calipari. Both teams enter Wednesday evening’s showdown at 10-1 with both losses coming to now-top 5 teams (Baylor, UCLA). This will be Kentucky’s first true road game of the season and it will be the first taste of the Bluegrass State battle for the Wildcats’ top five scorers. Coach Calipari has lost his first true road game of the season in five of his past seven seasons. If you believe in streak-busting: The Kentucky/Louisville rivalry has seen five game streaks end this season in women’s basketball (Louisville) and football (Kentucky). Last season’s affair was a 75-73 (UK -1.5) Wildcat win in Lexington, a furious Louisville second half comeback effort falling just short. Kentucky has won two of their last three in Louisville and the Cardinals haven’t covered in the series at home since 2002 (0-6 ATS). Louisville averages only 65.1 PPG in their past nine contests against Kentucky, only breaking 70 points twice. Their lone win against Calipari’s Wildcats was at home in 2012 (80-77, UK +7). Kentucky comes off a thrilling 103-100 (UK -1) win over #7 North Carolina in Las Vegas on Saturday night. Louisville has won five straight since losing to Baylor on Nov. 25. Included in that streak is a win over #15 Purdue (71-64, LOU -6) in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge on Nov. 30. The Cardinals last three victories have all been at home, most recently on Saturday over Eastern Kentucky, 87-56 (LOU -26.5).
Once again Kentucky has a team loaded with young talent. Lone key returnee, sophomore G Isaiah Briscoe (15.9 PPG, 3.6 APG) doesn’t even have experience in this rivalry, as he pulled up lame with a pre-game injury in last season’s contest and didn’t play. Kentucky will be riding high after their thrilling 103-100 win over North Carolina, highlighted by the last three of Malik Monk’s 47 points falling through the net with 16 seconds left to seal the game. Monk (21.9 PPG, 50.3% FG) has been the offensive weapon that the Wildcats so desperately need this season amidst a roster of players who flourish in the open floor but struggle more in the half court. The explosive 6’3” freshman guard provides someone who can get (and make) their own shot at any time in the possession, and the only real three-point threat that Coach Calipari boasts. Fellow freshman backcourt mate, G De’Aaron Fox (15.9 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 7.2 APG) has been compared to a left-handed version of former Kentucky great, John Wall. Fox struggles with his jump shot but is explosive in the open floor and is the one Wildcat this season who plays ferocious defense. Defense, oddly enough, is the one area of this season’s Wildcats that has lagged far behind where John Calipari coached teams usually are at this stage. Kentucky has seen top flight opposition put up 97 and 100 points (UCLA, North Carolina) respectively. Both the Bruins and Tar Heels shot 53% from the field. Louisville doesn’t possess (on paper or on film) the depth of offensive weapons as those aforementioned opponents, but it’s clear that Kentucky will give you an opportunity to score (71.6 PPG, 154th NCAA). While Kentucky’s offense is definitely potent (95.2 PPG, 3rd NCAA), it’s partially built on having 80.9 possessions per game (5th NCAA). Their counterparts will want to slow the pace down, as Louisville is 171st nationally in pace. Up front, Kentucky will lean on F Edrice Adebayo (12.6 PPG, 7.9 RPG), another freshman. Adebayo is an energy player, but is also very raw. He’s scored in double-figures now in 8 straight games, but is also prone to early foul trouble which has kept him under 30 minutes in every game this season except one (UCLA).
For Louisville to get back in the winner’s circle for Pitino, the Cardinals will need to take advantage of the opportunities on offense that Kentucky has allowed against fellow high-caliber foes. Can Donovan Mitchell (11.7 PPG, 37.5% FG), Quentin Snider (11 PPG, 32% FG), and Deng Adel (9.7 PPG, 35.5% FG) capitalize on open perimeter looks? Unfortunately the numbers aren’t overwhelming for the perimeter leaders on Pitino’s Cardinals. Louisville excels putting the ball in the basket through second-chance points (45.0 RPG, 5th NCAA; 16 ORPG, 6th NCAA). The Cardinals will have an edge in the paint with their depth and athleticism on the front line featuring F Jaylen Johnson (9.5 PPG, 8.1 RPG) and Mangok Mathiang (6.7 PPG, 7.2 RPG). Unlike Kentucky, which experiences a drop off in frontcourt production if Adebayo is out, Louisville can mix and match amongst four players who average over one block per game, all of whom also play 18 minutes per game or more. Louisville blocks 12.7% of all shots (2nd NCAA). This will bode well against an opponent like Kentucky who, similar to Louisville, can struggle from long range. Coach Pitino’s main focus would seem to be to find a way to slow down Malik Monk, the one player who can make Louisville’s defense pay over the top. Mitchell, at 6’3”, 200lbs has the same measurable as Monk and boasts 2.5 steals per game, but Louisville has struggled with big-time scorers in the past this season. Grand Canyon University’s DeWayne Russell went off for 42 points on Dec. 4 against the Cardinals on 14-for-27 FG (11-for-16 FT). Russell, at 5’11”, controlled the pace of the game as a scoring point guard. If Mitchell is assigned to follow Monk all over the floor, Snider will have to more effectively funnel De’Aaron Fox and Isaiah Briscoe into the intimidating Louisville interior defense, since both are so adept at finishing at the rim when given the opportunity.
NCAAB Knowledge
Kentucky is 8-1 vs Louisville since Calipari has been coach of Wildcats. UK is 10-1 vs schedule #119, coming off its great 103-100 win over UNC in Las Vegas Saturday; Wildcats are #347 experience team playing #9 tempo and if there was metric for pure talent, they’d be right at top of list. Louisville is 10-1 vs schedule #96; their only loss was by 3 on neutral floor to Baylor, a game Cardinals led 32-10- their best wins are Purdue/Wichita State. Kentucky forces turnovers 22.3% of time, grabs 39.4% of their own rebounds. ACC home favorites are 35-23 vs spread; SEC underdogs are 11-15 away from home.
Illinois beat Missouri the last three years by a total of nine (1-3-5) points in annual game in St Louis; Illini are 9-3 vs schedule #116- they’re #41 experience team- they’ve won last five games, including wins over NC State/VCU/BYU. Missouri is 5-5 vs schedule #322; they’re #346 experience team that is shooting 27.5% on arc, has #312 eFG% in country. Tigers are 0-3 vs top 100 teams, losing by 1-15-19 points. Big 14 favorites are 9-7 away from home; SEC underdogs are 11-16 away from home.
Dayton won 72-67 at Vanderbilt LY, rallying back from down 16 in first half; Flyers are 7-3 after losing last game by 3 to Northwestern- Dayton trailed 43-19 in first half. Flyers are 2-3 vs top 100 teams, winning by 5 at Alabama of SEC. Vandy lost by 23 at Middle Tennessee in its only true road game; Commodores are 1-4 vs top 100 teams, with only win over Chattanooga by a hoop. Vandy is making 40.3% of its 3’s but turning ball over 20.3% of time. A-14 home favorites are 15-26 vs spread; SEC road underdogs are 4-6.
Texas lost five of last seven games; their last two losses were by 3 points each- they’re 4-0 vs teams ranked outside top 100. Longhorns are playing pace #246; Smart’s VCU teams didn’t play like this- they’re also shooting only 28.7% on arc. UAB is 0-4 vs top 100 teams, losing by 20-13-4-7 points; they split pair of true road games, losing by 7 in Memphis, winning at SF Austin- they beat #234 Southern by point in OT in last game. Big X home favorites are 21-14 vs spread; C-USA road underdogs are 22-25.
Clemson lost to South Carolina last two years by 23-6 points, but Tigers are 8-2 this year vs schedule #170; they’re #21 experience team that is 4-2 vs top 100 teams but this is their first true road game. Clemson’s losses were both by 6 points in neutral floor, to Auburn/Oklahoma. Gamecocks are 9-1 vs schedule #157; their only loss was by 3 to Seton Hall in NYC, a semi-road game in NYC. Carolina has 39.4% eFG% defense, #2 in country. SEC home favorites are 28-26 vs spread. ACC road underdogs are 5-3.
Alabama lost three of last four games, is 5-0 vs teams outside 100, with four wins by 17+ points. Crimson Tide is #210 experience team playing tempo #299— they’re shooting 31.7% from arc- they’re forcing turnovers 22.5% of time (#36). Arkansas State is 9-2 vs schedule #115; they’re #70 experience team. ASU forces turnovers 21% of time, is shooting 40.1% on arc- they’re 3-1 vs top 100 teams with best win at Georgetown. SEC home favorites are 28-26 vs spread. Sun Belt road underdogs are 15-22.
Virginia beat Cal by point in OT LY, after trailing by 11 with 13:06 left; Cavaliers are 9-1 vs schedule #196; they’re #238 experience team that is playing slowest tempo in country. Virginia is 3-1 vs top 100 teams with only loss by 9 to West Virginia; their eFG% defense is #3 in country. California is 9-2 vs schedule #308; they’re 1-2 vs top 100 teams with only win vs #80 Princeton. Bears have #8 eFG% in country; their losses are by 12 to San Diego State, 3 to Seton Hall. ACC road favorites are 6-5 vs spread. Pac-12 home underdogs are 1-5.
Cal-Santa Barbara is 0-7 vs D-I teams (schedule #10); they’ve got a D-II win. Gauchos are shooting 23.9% on arc, worst in country- their eFG% is #337. UCSB is 0-4 vs teams ranked #110 or higher, with three of the losses by 24+ points. Iona is 7-3 with schedule #157; they’re #92 experience team. Gaels are 4-1 vs teams ranked outside top 200, with loss to Niagara- all four wins were by 11+ points. MAAC favorites are 2-1 away from home; Big West underdogs are 15-31 away from home.
Towson State is 7-4 vs schedule #301, winning its last three games, including 73-72 win over #233 UMBC in its last game; they’re 3-2 in true road games, 0-2 vs top 100 teams, with two losses by total of seven points. Tigers have #247 eFG%. Nevada is 9-2 vs schedule #143; Wolf Pack is 5-0 vs teams ranked outside top 150, with four of five wins by 10+ points. Nevada is 4-2 away from home with true road wins at Washington, Bradley. Mountain West favorites are 3-5 away from home; CAA underdogs are 20-11 away from home.
Oklahoma lost three of last four games, is 6-4 vs schedule #177- they lost last two games by total of 8 points. Sooners are #316 experience team that is 1-4 in top 100 games, with only win over Clemson by 6 on a neutral court. OU is 3-2 away from Norman. Auburn is 8-2 vs schedule #247; they’re #321 experience team that struggled to beat Mercer 76-74 at home in last game. Tigers split two top 100 teams, both on neutral court in Cancun. SEC underdogs are 11-16 away from home. Big X favorites are 12-11 away from home.
Eastern Illinois beat Indiana State last two years by 4-6 points; Panthers are 8-4 vs schedule #310, with a win at Missouri- they’re #102 experience team that forces turnovers 24.4% of time (#6)- they’re not a good offensive team (#279 eFG%). Sycamores are 0-2 vs teams outside top 200, losing to Quinnipiac/WKU; they’re 5-6 vs schedule #52, shooting only 29.7% on arc. Three of ISU’s five wins are by either by one point or in overtime. MVC home favorites are 18-12 vs spread OVC road underdogs are 30-31.
Pittsburgh is 9-2 vs schedule #110; they’re #23 experience team that forces the least turnovers of anyone in country. Panthers are 7-1 vs teams ranked outside top 100, with only two wins by more than 10 points. Omaha is 7-5 vs schedule #56; they’re 4-4 in true road games, are #156 experience team playing #13 tempo. Mavericks are 1-3 vs top 100 teams, losing by 10-13-44 points, with an upset win at Iowa- their other six wins are over teams ranked #235 or lower. ACC home favorites are 35-23 vs spread; Summit League road underdogs are 22-24.
Utah State beat Weber State the last four years, by 3-11-6-10 points; Aggies are 6-4 vs #131 schedule- they’re #242 experience team that is 5-1 vs teams ranked outside top 100, with four wins by 9+ points. Weber State is 2-6 vs D-I teams with three losses by 1 or 2 points; Wildcats are #117 experience team that is playing #324 tempo. Utah State played nine guys double digit minutes in its win over New Orleans Monday night. Mountain West home favorites are 17-13 vs spread; Big Sky road underdogs are 29-30.
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