NCAAB betting trends, odds and predictions for Friday, December 30th, 2016 from various handicappers and websites
NCAAB Knowledge
St Bonaventure won 7 of its last 9 games, with losses by a point or in OT; they’ve been off for 8 days since OT loss to Canisius. Bonnies won six of last eight games with UMass, winning 69-55/88-77 in last two visits here- they won by 6 at Hofstra in only true road game this year. UMass is 10-3 vs schedule #286; they’re 1-3 vs top 100 teams, with only win by 3 over Temple. Minutemen are forcing turnovers 22.6% of time, but they turn it over 20.1% of time, shoot just 30.4% on arc. Bonnies are #84 experience team, UMass #327.
Underwood got Oklahoma State job LY in part due to his 70-56 upset of West Virginia in LY’s NCAAs; he was an assistant to Huggins at Kansas St. Cowboys are 10-2 vs schedule #143, with only losses by 1 at Maryland, by 32 to UNC on neutral floor. OSU forces turnovers 26.6% of time (#3 in country), WVU 35% of time (#1). Mountaineers are 11-1 vs schedule #342; they won by 9 at Virginia in only true road game. West Virginia won its last four games with Oklahoma State, all by 9+ points, winning 73-63/70-56 in two couple visits here.
McClain is rebuilding Ill-Chicago’s program; Flames are 7-6 this year after going 21-74 the previous three years, but they’ve played schedule #301, are experience team #350- they turn ball over 22.3% of time. Valparaiso won its last 15 games with Ill-Chicago, with seven of last eight wins by 10+ points. Crusaders won last seven visits here, with five of seven wins by 6 or less points. Valpo is 10-3 vs schedule #171; they’re 1-2 in true road games with only win by 3 at Missouri State- losses were to Oregon/Kentucky, top 20 teams.
Michigan State pulled one out of the fire in its Big 14 opener at Minnesota Tuesday; they’re lot younger than most Izzo teams, their most talented player (Bridges) is hurt, but Spartans are 22-2 in last 24 games with Northwestern, winning last seven in row, with five of last six wins by 14+ points. Wildcats lost last five visits here, by 9-4-10-15-7 points. Northwestern won its Big 14 opener easily at Penn State. Wildcats are 12-2 with nine wins in row; they’re 3-2 vs top 100 teams, with losses by 2 at Butler, 4 to Notre Dame.
Iowa State split its last six games after a 5-0 start; they’re #5 experience team in country, are 1-3 vs top 100 teams, with 73-56 win over Miami. Cyclones don’t get to line much, but they’re shooting only 63.5% there, so who cares? Home side won eight of last nine Texas Tech-Iowa State games; Red Raiders lost last five trips to Ames, with all five by 6+ points, three by 18+. Tech is 11-1 vs 3rd-easiest schedule in country; they lost by hoop to Auburn on neutral floor in only top 100 game this season. Hard to tell much when Rice is their 2nd-best opponent so far.
Texas is 3-6 in its last nine games with home losses to Tex-Arlington, Kent State; Longhorns are #340 experience team- they lost by 3 at Michigan in only true road game so far. Playing #193 pace, they’re shooting 28.9% on arc. Kansas State is 11-1 vs schedule #345; they lost by 1 to Maryland in only game vs team ranked above #140. Wildcats are #240 experience team. Texas won its last four games with Kansas State, with three wins by 4 or less points; Longhorns won last two trips to Little Apple after losing previous four games there.
VCU won six of last seven games with George Mason; home side is 10-2 in last 12 series games. Rams lost four of last five visits to Fairfax. VCU is 2-0 in true road games, winning by 5 at Liberty, 3 at Old Dominion- they’re #28 experience team that is forcing turnovers 23.2% of time (#19). Mason won its last nine games, is 10-3 vs schedule #297; they’re #305 experience team that lost by 37 to Houston in only top 100 game. VCU’s bench plays #40 minutes in country, Mason’s bench is much shorter, playing #291 minutes.
TCU is 11-1 vs schedule #248 in Dixon’s first year at his alma mater; Horned Frogs are 3-1 vs top 100 teams, with only loss by 15 at SMU. TCU is forcing turnovers 23.4% of time; they have not played in nine days. Kansas won its last eight games with TCU, with four of last five by 9 or less points. Jayhawks won last three visits here, by 22-3-19 points. Kansas is 5-1 vs top 100 teams, losing opener in OT to Indiana; they won only road game by 18 at overmatched UNLV squad that had zero chance to beat them. First real acid test for Dixon at TCU.
South Carolina was 46-63 (seriously) on foul line in 86-76 home win over Memphis LY; Tigers were 30-36 on line in game that was tied at half. Memphis lost its AAC opener this year by 4 at home to SMU on Wednesday; they’re 9-4 vs schedule #295, 2-4 vs top 100 teams, with wins over Iowa/Oklahoma, both inexperienced teams. South Carolina split its last four games after an 8-0 start; they’re 4-2 in top 100 games, losing to Seton Hall/Clemson by total of 5 points. Gamecocks have #2 eFG% defense in country- they won only true road game by 11 at USF.
Home side won last six Arizona State-Stanford games; Sun Devils lost last five visits to Farm, by 8-24-6-19-2 points. ASU is 5-6 in its last 11 games, one of its best freshmen transferred; they won their only true road game by 11 at San Diego State. Sun Devils are 1-4 vs top 100 teams, with losses by 8-46-33-9 points. Stanford lost three of last four D-I games; they’re 1-4 against top 100 teams, with all four losses by 14+ points. Cardinal is shooting just 31.8% on arc; they are #76 experience team that has played #36 schedule with a new coach.
Oregon had emotional home win over UCLA two nights ago; they were down 8 with 3:32 left, rallied for win. Ducks won their last four top 100 games, winning by 4-5-9-2 points. Oregon won its last 12 games with Trojans, with five of last six series wins by 8+ points. USC lost its last six visits to Eugene, by 10-6-3-12-8-8 points. Trojans are surprising 13-0 vs schedule #241; they are 3-0 in true road games, winning by hoop at Texas A&M and beating two other stiffs. USC is #329 experience team- they won by 7 at Oregon State Wednesday.
Arizona is 11-2 vs schedule #150; they’re #326 experience team that hasn’t played in 10 days. Wildcats won by 19 at Missouri in only true road game; their bench has played #308 minutes in country. Wildcats won seven of last nine games with Cal, winning last four, all by 22+ points. Arizona won three of last four visits to Berkeley. Cal Bears haven’t played in nine days since 56-52 home loss to Virginia; Bears are 1-3 vs top 100 teams, with only win over Princeton- losses were by 12-4-3 points. Thing is, Cal has Rabb, an NBA player, on their side.
Idaho won its last two games with Eastern Washington by 4 points each, after losing five of previous six games vs EWU. Eagles won two of last three games here. Vandals lost last three D-I games; they’re 2-4 vs teams ranked outside top 200. Idaho has been off for eight days since suprisingly close 86-80 loss at Stanford. Eastern Washington is 8-5 vs schedule #125; they lost last three games, are 1-5 in true road games, with only win in double OT at Seattle, one of four OT wins (4-0) for Eagles. EWU has also been off for last eight days.
Armadillosports.com
Friday's Elite Eight
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com
USC at Oregon
The Ducks managed to muscle in on bowls and the NBA to become the top story in sports earlier this week when they took out UCLA, so this can be a really big week for them. Taking out two unbeaten L.A. powers certainly won’t come for the price of one and might require another heroic effort from guard Dillon Brooks, who struggled before his buzzer-beater but remains Oregon’s most dynamic weapon on a team filled with them. The Ducks lost in his season debut against Georgetown on Nov. 21 but have won 10 consecutive games with him in the lineup despite the fact he’s in a 6-for-27 shooting slump from 3-point range. Brooks did play a season-best 35 minutes against UCLA, so the training wheels are off and he appears to be fully covered from foot surgery. He’ll face off with USC’s top scorer Elijah Stewart (15.0 ppg, 5.5 rpg), a really gifted offensive player who comes off a 4-for-13 shooting game in Wednesday’s win at Oregon State. The Trojans’ heartbeat is point guard Jordan McLaughlin, the main reason the team is still undefeated since he does it all on the floor and has won games with his poise down the stretch. Dana Altman has plenty of guards he can throw at him. Big men Chris Boucher and Jordan Bell will duel with USC’s breakout star Chimezie Metu, who has scored in double-digits nine straight games and looks to be blossoming into a pro as a sophomore. They won’t have to contend with versatile forward Bennie Boatright, out for a few weeks with a knee injury. Oregon won both meetings last season to extend their run of victories over the Trojans to 12. The Ducks have won 34 consecutive home games.
Arizona at California
The Wildcats have been working shorthanded since Allonzo Trier went out due to an eligibility issue and have been missing point guard Parker Jackson-Cartwright too, but he’s returned practice and may be back to provide a boost in this Pac-12 opener. The Bears have had injury issues throughout the last two months themselves, missing All-American Ivan Rabb for a few games and wings Jabari Bird and Grant Mullins for longer stretches. Center Kameron Rooks still isn’t back from knee surgery, which could hurt here since Arizona does have quality size in 7-footers Lauri Markkanen and Dusan Ristic. Sean Miller has managed to overcome all the attrition to win five straight, including an upset of Texas A&M in Houston. Most recently, the ‘Cats crushed New Mexico 77-46 on Dec. 20, while Cal had its 27-game home winning streak snapped by stingy Virginia 56-52 on Dec. 21. Miller and counterpart Cuonzo Miller have had ample time to prepare their teams and each preach defense, which is why most of the games for both have gone under despite all the roster chaos.
West Virginia at Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State is pretty satisfied that tickets to the first conference game of the Brad Underwood era are sold out, making it the first time Gallagher-Iba Arena will be packed since a showdown with Oklahoma in Jan. 2015. It’s helped that the Cowboys have hit the ground running under their new head coach, who has had help reinvigorating the program from point guard Jawun Evans (20.2 ppg, 4.6 apg), one of the best in the nation at his position. The partnership should serve Underwood well in this meeting with his coaching mentor, Bob Huggins, who pressures teams more than anyone. Underwood’s Stephen F. Austin team handled Press Virginia effectively enough to earn an upset in last year’s NCAA Tournament, so we’ll see how he fares with an elite ball handler and a homecourt advantage. Of course, the Mountaineers are loaded and lead the nation in turnovers forced (26.2), so this will really be a battle of wills and should be an extremely entertaining show. Free-throw shooting could be a deciding factor since the Cowboys shoot them extremely well (76 percent) and West Virginia (64.4) doesn’t. Phil Forte has hit 44 of 45 (97.8 ) and can really salt a game away if given the chance. This could come right down to the wire.
Baylor at Oklahoma
The Sooners expect senior leading scorer Jordan Woodard (17.6) to play after missing the Auburn loss with a pulled muscle in his leg following a fall in practice. Oklahoma has lost three consecutive games for the first time since he’s been on campus as the school struggles to replace lottery pick Buddy Hield, Isaiah Cousins and Ryan Spangler, guys that fought you to the end to win the close ones. Of OU’s five losses, two have come in OT and the other were tight setbacks against Auburn and Wichita State that were decided late. Baylor has had only a single one-possession game through its perfect run, beating Louisville. The Bears have blown out Oregon, Michigan State and Xavier and have really taken off with Miami transfer Manu Lecomte and JUCO transfer Jo-Lual-Acuil, Jr. providing dominant play at the point and center, respectively. Holdovers Johnathan Motley, Al Freeman, Ishmail Wainwright and Terry Maston can all really play, so the Sooners are up against it and rightfully a home underdog in Norman as they look to avoid slipping to .500, a rarity under Lon Kruger’s watch and a dramatic fall considering they come off a Final Four appearance.
Kansas at TCU
If this card weren’t so juicy this would be much higher due to morbid curiosity since it appears we’re about to find out just how seriously to take the Horned Frogs. Considering some putrid TCU teams have given the Jayhawks trouble in the past, dealing Bill Self some of his most puzzling, frustrating losses, the fact it has a promising group on its hands is certain to have KU’s attention. Unique pieces like 6-foot-11 Vladimir Brodziansky and high-motor forward Kenrich Williams have helped make Jamie Dixon’s first season at his alma mater surprising successfully, and there are a number of quality guards who give him options. There’s not elite talent at his disposal like Self has in Frank Mason, Josh Jackson and Devonte Graham, but a deep team could certainly test Kansas in a road environment. The Jayhawks will be playing only their second game without center Udoka Azubuike, who suffered a season-ending wrist injury in practice on Dec. 20.
Texas Tech at Iowa State
Life in the Big 12 won’t be easy for anyone, but for teams like Red Raiders that are perennially punching outside their weight class, the early slate looks pretty daunting. With a home game against West Virginia and a trip to Kansas on tap next week, picking up an upset in Ames would really ease their burden. Despite its gaudy record, Texas Tech has racked up wins many would argue haven’t prepared it for conference play. Chris Beard is coaching his first game in the head seat since the former assistant returned to Lubbock to replace Tubby Smith following a successful stint at Little Rock. This will be Texas Tech’s second true road game of the season – it won at Richmond two weeks ago – and second encounter with a major-conference team, having suffered its lone loss against Auburn (67-65) on Nov. 22 in Cancun. Iowa State lost one-possession games to Gonzaga and Cincinnati around this time last month, but has won its last two home games after the Bearcats ended its 37-game run of non-conference wins at Hilton Coliseum. The Cyclones are hoping to speed up the Red Raiders, who prefer to slow tempo and turn games into grinders, so gang rebounding will be key. Point guards Monte Morris and Keenan Evans know one another well, having started every game for their teams last year. The team’s split last season’s meetings. Morris shot just 10-for-25.
South Carolina at Memphis
This is the lone non-conference game to crack Friday’s list, a showdown between two teams who will turn their attention back to conference play next week but are out to pick up a quality win here. After an 8-0 start grabbed everyone’s attention, the Gamecocks have gone 2-2, with one of those wins coming Tuesday against D-II member Lander. Seton Hall and Clemson each beat South Carolina in a physical, one-possession game similar to what awaits in this, its second true road game. Top scorer Sindarius Thornwell (18.7) remains suspended for getting arrested for marijuana possession last month and isn’t likely to be reinstated until next week at the earliest. His absence would definitely aid the Tigers’ chances since it’s one less headache for the short-handed group to deal with. Tubby Smith has gotten great contributions from twins Dedric and KJ Lawson to pick up wins over Oklahoma, Iowa and UAB. The forwards have combined for 35 points, 19.6 rebounds and 6.7 assists. Veteran starter Markel Crawford will be key here since he and sophomore Craig Randall are Memphis' best shooters.
Northwestern at Michigan State
Freakish freshman athlete Miles Bridges, whose explosive presence on both ends has him slated as a lottery lock so long as he stays healthy, remains sidelined after suffering an ankle injury last month. The Spartans looked NIT-bound without him, but did win at Minnesota in Monday’s Big Ten opener and typically plays its best later in the year under Tom Izzo, so there’s hope that they can salvage a season that has seen them lose at home to Northeastern and all four ranked foes they’ve faced so far. Northwestern has nine straight but lost to its two highest-rated opponents (Butler, Notre Dame) and will need to have a strong run in league play to finally reach the NCAA Tournament for the first time in school history. Freshman center Nick Ward comes off a 22-point, 10-rebound effort against the Gophers and won’t be sneaking up on the Wildcats, who have to figure out how to overcome their lack of size since power forward Derek Pardon remains sidelined by a hand injury.