NCAAB betting trends, odds and predictions for Friday, March 3rd, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
NCAAB Knowledge
West Virginia won 7 of its last 10 games, winning last three home games by 19-9-15 points; they’re 3-4 vs spread as Big X home favorites. Iowa State won its last six games (5-1 vs spread); they are 5-3 SU on Big X road, 6-1 as road underdog, with losses by 2-7-2 points. Mountaineers made 10-21 on arc, won 85-72 in Ames Jan 31, their 3rd win in row over the Cyclones. WVU won 81-76 in Ames LY, its first win in four Big X visits to ISU. OVC home favorites of 8 or less points are 11-17-1 against the spread this season.
Missouri Valley tournament, St Louis
Southern Illinois lost four of its last six games; their last three were all decided by 6 or less points. Salukis also lost four of last six road games. Loyola lost six of last eight games, losing its last four road games by a total of seven points. SIU swept Ramblers this year, winning by 6-2 points; they won last meeting 72-70 at home six nights ago in Carbondale. Salukis are 6-2 vs Ramblers in Valley games. Loyola won its first tourney game the last three years; Salukis are 3-6 in their first Arch Madness game the last nine years.
Northern Iowa won Arch Madness 4 of last 8 years; they lost first tourney game the other four years. Panthers lost last three games by 29-10-21 points after a 9-1 run revived their season. Missouri State lost eight of its last ten games, losing four of last five away games. Road team won both series meetings this year; Missouri State led 32-8 in first meeting, hung on for 68-64 win; they led by 10 early in rematch, which they lost by 3. Bears won their first tournament game 10 of last 14 years, three of last four.
Horizon tournament, Detroit
Detroit lost eight of its last 12 games, but won two of last three on road. Detroit/Milwaukee split their last six meetings; road team won both games this year. Titans were 9-29 on FOUL LINE in a 73-69 OT loss at home to Milwaukee Jan 27- they won rematch a week ago. Milwaukee lost its last nine games since then. Titans shot 60%/56.7% inside arc in the two meetings this year. Milwaukee won its first tournament game six of last seven years they were in it; Detroit won its first tourney game five of last seven years.
Youngstown State lost seven of its last eight games, losing last two by 29-14 points. Cleveland State lost 12 of last 16 games; they’re shooting 30.9% on arc for the season (#327 in nation). Youngstown St/Cleveland St split last four meetings; home side won both this year. Penguins won 67-64 in first meeting, after trailing 14-2 early; they lost rematch 69-55 six nights ago. Youngstown is 3-9 in its first tourney game the last 12 years; Cleveland State is 1-4 in its first tourney game the last five years.
CAA tournament, Charleston
Hofstra won its last three road games, lost its last two at home. Delaware lost its last three games, by 21-13-22 points; Blue Hens are last in CAA in four of nine offensive metrics. Hofstra won its last six games with Delaware, sweeping Blue Hens 58-56/73-65 this season; Pride trailed by 11 at half in rematch at home Feb 2. Delaware lost in first round last two years, by 3-4 points; they’re 8-6 in last 14 first round games, won tourney in ‘14. Hofstra won its first tourney game three years in row, six of last eight years.
James Madison won its last seven games with Drexel, sweeping Dragons 78-67/70-64 in two meetings this year. Dragons were up 7 at home with 9:13 left in last meeting, but lost. JMU is #4 experience team in country; they went 21-11 LY, fired the coach and are 9-22 now with a new coach. Drexel lost its last five games, with three losses by six or less points. Drexel lost its first tourney game nine of last 13 years; JMU lost their first game five of last six years and 10 of last 13- they won CAA tourney in ’13.
WCC tournament, Orleans Arena, Las Vegas
Pepperdine lost its last four games, all by 11+ points. Pacific lost 11 of its last 13 games, losing last two games by a point each. Pepperdine won six of last seven games with Pacific; home side won both meetings this year, with Tigers winning 79-74 at home Jan 12, then losing 82-72 in Malibu Feb 4. Pacific is 0-2 in WCC tourney games, losing by 17-4 points; they didn’t play LY- they won the Big West tourney in ’13, their last year in that league. Pepperdine won its first tourney game last two years by 3-4 points; they’re 5-4 in first round last nine years.
Portland lost its last 16 D-I games; they beat a scrub NAIA team Feb 20. Pilots are shooting 43.3% inside arc this year, in bottom 15 in country. San Diego is 3-8 in its last 11 games but two of the wins were against Portland. San Diego won its last five games with Portland; Toreros swept them this year, 68-52 on road in January, then 85-82 at home six nites ago, game USD led by 18 in second half. Portland lost its first tourney game four of last six years; San Diego is 0-3 in WCC tourney the last three years, losing by 9-3-3 points.
Southern Conference tournament, Asheville, NC
Western Carolina won two of last three games after being 2-13 in SoCon before that. Citadel won its last two games after starting out 2-14 in conference play. WCU swept Citadel this year, winning by 5-4 points- they were 17-32 on arc in the two games, Citadel was 26-76- they bomb a lot of 3’s. Catamounts are 11-1 in last 12 games with Citadel. Teams are shooting 58.5% inside arc against the Bulldogs this year. Citadel is 3-11 in first round games the last 14 years; WCU won its first round game the last seven years.
Samford lost six of its last eight games; they lost last four road games- their last road win was Jan 28. VMI lost its last six games. Samford swept VMI this year, winning 69-67 on road Jan 28; they trailed early by 13, then they won rematch 80-61 at home 13 days ago, making 10-21 on arc in game they led by 19 at the half. Bulldogs are 5-2 in SoCon game with VMI- they beat Keydets by 7 in OT in LY’s tourney. Samford lost its first tourney game five of last seven years; VMI lost tourney games by 28-7 points the last two years, its first two years back in SoCon.
Ohio Valley Conference tournament, Nashville
Belmont went 15-1 in OVC this year, losing at Tennessee Tech Feb 11; Bruins won three games since, by 4-16-5 points. Belmont beat Jacksonville State twice this year, by 17-13 points; they were 22-63 on arc in those games. Bruins won their conference tournament 7 of last 11 years; they’ve won its twice in four years in the OVC- they’re 11-2 in their first tourney game, losing this game in OT LY. Jacksonville State made 12-27 on arc in easy win last nite, its first OVC tourney game in five years. Gamecocks’ coach Harper won two Sun Belt tourneys at WKU.
Murray State won in double OT Wednesday, then came back from down 61-51 last nite to win 75-69; Racers PG Stark, a huge ballhog, has scored 78 points in two games and has been gold down the stretch of both games, but he also played all 90:00 in those two games- he has to be exhausted. Murray beat Tenn-Martin 94-86 at home in first meeting, then lost rematch 83-76 six days ago. Stark was combined 7-22 on arc in those two games. Since ’03, UT-Martin is 4-8 in OVC tourney games, 4-4 in first round. Since ’03, Murray is 19-11 in OVC tournament games.
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NCAAB: Streaks, Tips, Notes
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Iowa St. at West Virginia
Cyclones peaking at the right time winning six games in a row (5-1 ATS) can secure #2 seed in the conference tournament with a win in Morgantown.
'Press Virginia' has won/covered three straight in the series. However you bet West Virginia at some risk. Mountaineers are on a 0-3-1 ATS skid in conference play and covering hasn't been automatic for Mountaineers on home court recently going 3-5-1 ATS. Cyclones who can can fill it up and tops in the conference from long-range are a sparkling 7-1 ATS taking points in unfriendly territory.
Friday's Tip Sheet
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
Harvard at Princeton
Princeton (19-6 straight up, 10-9 against the spread) hasn’t tasted defeat since losing 96-90 at Monmouth on Dec. 20. The Tigers have won 15 games in a row since then, including all 12 Ivy League contests. They can become the first team to qualify for the NCAA Tournament with a win over Harvard on Friday night. Even with a loss, Mitch Henderson’s team can clinch the Ivy’s automatic bid by beating Dartmouth on Saturday.
Princeton is off a 75-60 win at Cornell as a 12.5-point road favorite. The spread cover marked the fourth straight for the Tigers, who were led by Devin Cannady’s 26 points on 6-of-10 shooting from 3-point range. Myles Stephens added 17 points and Steven Cook finished with 14.
One offshore book opened Princeton as a 7.5-point home favorite. The Tigers are 6-2 ATS as single-digit favorites this season.
Cannady is scoring at a team-high 13.9 points-per-game clip. The sophomore is hitting 41.9 percent of his launches from downtown and 92.2 percent at the free-throw line. Cook (13.2 PPG) averages 5.3 rebounds per game and is making 44.3 percent of his 3-balls. Stephens (11.6 PPG) is another threat from beyond the arc, draining 37.3 percent of his 3’s. Meanwhile, senior forward Spencer Weisz is averaging 10.7 points and 5.5 rebounds per game, in addition to dishing out a team-high 100 assists compared to 43 turnovers.
Princeton is No. 56 in the RPI Rankings and No. 62 at KenPom.com. The Tigers have only one RPI Top-100 win, winning 72-70 at Bucknell. The Tigers lost at VCU, at Monmouth, at BYU and at Lehigh, in addition to a home loss to Saint Joseph’s and a neutral-court setback vs. California.
Princeton has won eight of its nine home games, compiling a 4-3 spread record.
Princeton is 10th in the nation in scoring defense, limiting opponents to just 61.7 points per game.
Harvard (18-7 SU, 13-4-2 ATS) has won seven of 10 road assignments, producing a stellar 5-1 spread record.
Tommy Amaker’s team has won six consecutive games and is 7-1 ATS in its last eight contests. Harvard is off of Saturday’s 77-58 win over Brown as an 11.5-point home ‘chalk.’ Senior point guard Siyani Chambers was the catalyst, scoring 19 points and dishing out five assists. Chambers buried 7-of-9 shots from the field, including all three of his attempts from long distance. Seth Towns added 16 points, eight rebounds, two assists and two steals. In only 13 minutes of action due to foul trouble, Zena Edosomwan nonetheless contributed eight points, 11 boards and one blocked shot.
Harvard owns a 3-1-1 spread record with two outright victories – at Yale and at Houston – in five games as an underdog this year.
Chambers is averaging 10.1 points, 6.0 assists and 1.3 steals per game. After missing all of last season with a torn ACL, the veteran PG has a 143/45 assists-to-turnovers ratio. Bryce Aiken leads the Crimson in scoring with a 14.3 PPG average. Towns (12.0 PPG) is also scoring in double figures.
When these teams met at Lavietes Pavilion in Boston on Feb. 4, Princeton captured a 57-56 win as a three-point road favorite. Cook paced the Tigers with 19 points, nine rebounds, five steals, three assists and one block. Stephens added 15 points, while Weisz contributed 13 points and eight boards. In the losing effort, Chambers had a team-best 17 points, four rebounds and three assists. The 113 combined points went ‘under’ the 136-point tally.
Harvard ranks 24th in the country in defending the 3-point line (31.2%), 33rd in scoring defense (64.8 PPG) and 32nd in field-goal percentage defense (40.5%).
If Princeton loses to Harvard and Dartmouth and Harvard wins Saturday at Penn, the Ivy League rivals would play each other for a third time for the right to go to the NCAA Tournament.
The ‘under’ is 13-6 overall for the Tigers, 5-2 in their home games. They saw a nine-game run of ‘unders’ end in last Saturday’s 75-60 win at Cornell that saw the 135 combined points slip ‘over’ the 134.5-point total by one-half point.
The ‘over’ is 11-8-2 overall for the Crimson, 4-4 in its road contests. The ‘over’ had cashed in five straight until the ‘under’ appeared in Saturday’s win over Brown.
Tip-off is scheduled for 5:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPNU.
Iowa State at West Virginia
One offshore shop opened West Virginia (23-7 SU, 12-12-1 ATS) as a 7.5-point home favorite for this Big 12 clash. These teams are jockeying for position in the Big 12 Tournament. Iowa State is alone in second place with a 12-5 league record, but WVU and Baylor are both one game back with 11-6 marks in Big 12 play.
Bob Huggins’s team has won 15 of its 17 home games, going 5-6 ATS. WVU owns a perfect 3-0 spread record in its three games as a single-digit home ‘chalk.’
West Virginia saw its three-game winning streak snapped in Monday’s 71-62 loss at Baylor as a 1.5-point road underdog. Jevon Carter had 18 points, nine rebounds and three steals in the losing effort. Tarik Phillip and Elijah Macon were also in double figures with 12 and 11 points, respectively. The Bears beat WVU up on the boards with a 36-23 rebounding advantage.
When these schools met in Ames on Jan. 31, West Va. collected an 85-72 win as a two-point road favorite. It was WVU’s third consecutive win over ISU both SU and ATS. Nathan Adrian led the way with 23 points and 11 rebounds, while Phillip scored 15 points. Matt Thomas finished with 19 points and seven rebounds for the Cyclones, who got 11 points, 10 assists, five rebounds and three steals out of Deonte Burton.
WVU is ranked eighth in the Associated Press’s poll but is just No. 24 in the RPI. The Mountaineers are 3-2 against RPI Top-25 foes, 5-3 versus the Top 50 and 11-5 against the Top 100. They own road wins at Virginia, at Oklahoma State, at Iowa State and at TCU. Also, WVU has home scalps of Baylor, Kansas, TCU, Texas A&M, Kansas State and Texas Tech.
Carter leads WVU in scoring (12.9 PPG), assists (4.0 APG) and steals (2.8 SPG).
Iowa State (20-9 SU, 15-11 ATS) is No. 24 in the AP and No. 31 in the RPI. Steve Prohm’s squad is 2-5 against the Top 25, 5-6 versus the Top 50 and 10-8 against the Top 100. The Cyclones have a neutral-court win over Miami, in addition to victories at Oklahoma State, at Kansas, at Kansas State and at Texas Tech. They’ve also won at home vs. Baylor, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Kansas State and TCU.
Iowa State will bring a six-game winning streak into Morgantown. The Cyclones covered the spread in the first five wins, only to come up just short for our purposes in Tuesday’s thrilling 86-83 win over red-hot Oklahoma St. as 3.5-point home ‘chalk.’ They were ahead of the number with a five-point advantage until Jawun Evans drained a deep trey with 2.0 seconds left. Donovan Jackson was fouled with 1.1 left but after making his first free throw, he missed the second that would’ve provided the spread cover. In his last game at Hilton Coliseum, senior shooting guard Matt Thomas tied his career-high with a 25-point effort on his Senior Night. Thomas splashed the nets at a 7-for-11 clip from 3-point range and also dished out five assists compared to only one turnover. Burton contributed 20 points, five boards and three steals, while Monte Morris nearly went for a triple-double with 12 points, 11 assists, nine rebounds, three steals and two blocked shots.
Iowa State is 5-5 SU and 6-4 ATS in 10 road assignments. The Cyclones have been downright nasty as road underdogs this season, going 6-1 with five outright victories in seven such spots.
Morris has an insane 68/6 assists-to-turnovers ratio in Iowa State’s last 10 games. He leads ISU in scoring (16.1 PPG) and assists (6.2 APG), while Burton (14.3 PPG) paced the Cyclones in rebounding (6.4 RPG), steals (1.9 SPG) and blocks (1.4 BPG). Thomas (12.0 PPG) is burying 44.1 percent of his 3’s and 86.4 percent of his FTs. Meanwhile, Naz Long averages 15.8 points, 4.7 rebounds, 2.8 assists and 1.2 steals per game.
After hitting in five consecutive games, the ‘over’ is 14-12 overall for the Cyclones, 7-3 in their road outings.
The ‘over’ is 14-10-1 overall for the Mountaineers, 8-4 in their home games. However, they’ve seen the ‘under’ cash in three straight games.
ESPN2 will have the broadcast at 7:00 p.m. Eastern.
B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets
Louisville was 4-0 ATS as an ACC road favorite until losing Wednesday at Wake Forest by an 88-81 count as a 4.5-point road ‘chalk.’
LSU ended a school-record 15-game losing streak Wednesday night by beating Tennessee 92-82 as a six-point home underdog. The Tigers were led by Brandon Sampson’s 24 points. The Volunteers have limped down the stretch, losing five of their last six games.
After scoring only three points in a pair of games since spraining his ankle at Mississippi State two Saturdays ago, Canyon Barry scored a team-high 14 points Wednesday to lead Florida to a 78-65 win over Arkansas as a 10.5-point home favorite. The Gators have won 10 of their last 11 games while posting an 8-3 spread record. As of Thursday afternoon, they were No. 3 in the RPI and No. 5 at KenPom.com.
Since Yante Maten went down with a sprained knee two minutes into the Kentucky game, Georgia senior J.J. Frazier has responded by scoring 36, 28, 29 and 31 points in a four-game stretch. The 36-point effort came in the narrow home loss to Kentucky. The Bulldogs have won three in a row since then, including Wednesday’s 79-78 home win over Auburn, to keep their at-large hopes alive. The hopes of getting Maten back for next week’s SEC Tournament in Nashville appear to be slim, however. Like Kevin Durant, Maten has a ‘Grade 2’ MCL sprain. UGA has won five of its last six, has five road wins over RPI Top-100 foes and took Kentucky and Florida to overtime in Lexington and Gainesville, respectively. However, Mark Fox’s team has just one win over an RPI Top-50 opponent, and that came at home vs. Vanderbilt. UGA is No. 50 in the RPI. The Dawgs, who lost by two at South Carolina, close the regular season Saturday vs. the Gamecocks at Stegeman Coliseum in Athens.
Boise State has failed to cover the number in seven straight games. The Broncos close the regular season Saturday at Air Force.