NCAAB betting trends, odds and predictions for Friday, November 18th, 2016 from various handicappers and websites
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Clemson beat Davidson 95-78 yesterday; four starters played 34+ minutes- their bench played only 36:00 total. Tigers got to line 32 times. Xavier was 2-22 on arc but survived with 83-82 OT win over Missouri- Musketeers got to line 38 times in game where Mizzou appeared to play harder. Xavier used only three subs yesterday; seven guys played 20+ minutes. ACC/Big East split last 12 meetings; favorites were 8-4 vs spread in those games. ACC teams are 13-5 vs spread this season; Big East teams are 8-7.
Missouri played their hearts out Thursday but lost; three kids played 40+ minutes yesterday, a 4th player 37:00; they lost in OT on last-second foul, but they’re a much-improved team. Davidson was 11-40 on arc yesterday, turned ball over 16 times, as Clemson damn near ran them off court with superior athleticism. A-14 teams are 6-5 in last 11 games vs SEC clubs; underdogs are 8-3 vs spread in those games. A-14 teams are 8-15 vs spread this season, SEC teams 9-14.
Northern Iowa was 13-30 on arc in surprisingly easy win over Arizona State yesterday; they used only two kids more than 27:00. Oklahoma graduated four guys LY who started 100+ games together so they’ve restocked shelves; they played 10 kids double figure minutes yesterday, none more than 31:00. MVC teams were 3-2 vs Big X teams LY; underdogs covered all five games. MVC teams are 6-6 vs spread this year, 3-3 as underdogs. Big X teams are 6-3, 4-3 as favorites.
Arizona State used four starters 31+ minutes in 19-point loss to UNI yesterday; giving up 82 points in 67 possessions isn’t good. Tulane was 11-22 on arc yesterday, still lost by 19; Green Wave used only one kid more than 29:00- they were -15 on boards. AAC/Pac-12 teams split six games LY; underdogs were 3-2 vs spread in those games. AAC teams are 7-8 vs spread this year, 3-4 as underdogs. Pac-12 teams are 13-7 vs spread, 12-7 as favorites.
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Villanova was challenged by Western Michigan yesterday; Broncos shot 65% inside arc against them, but Wildcats were +6 in turnovers. Wake Forest scored 92.3 pts/game in winning first three games; they were a ridiculous 13-21 on arc yesterday- they led 63-44 at half. Deacons didn’t play anyone more than 29:00. Villanova used three kids 30+ minutes. ACC/Big East split last 12 meetings; favorites were 8-4 vs spread in those games. ACC teams are 13-5 vs spread this season; Big East teams are 8-7, 4-7 as favorites.
UTEP got blown out of water by Wake Forest’s shooting yesterday; Miners used two kids more than 26:00- they gave up 1.36 pts/possession- a lot. Western Michigan played their hearts out yesterday, were within handful of points in last 6:00 vs Villanova- Broncos used four kids 28+ minutes. C-USA/MAC teams split six meetings LY; favorites covered four of six games, with C-USA teams 4-2 vs spread. C-USA teams are 13-5 vs spread this season; MAC teams 10-8.
Charleston is 3-0, allowing 66.3 pts/game after beating Boise by 13 yesterday; they used five kids 28+ minutes, outscored Broncos 20-7 on foul line on their home court. Central Florida’s 7-6 center Fall had 26 points, 12 boards in easy win (53-33 at half) over Miss State yesterday. Knights only used six kids more than 11:00. CAA teams are 4-2 in last six games vs AAC squads (favorites 3-3 vs spread). CAA teams are 8-6 vs spread this season, 1-3 at home. AAC teams are 7-8 vs spread, 1-3 on road.
Mississippi State was crushed by host Charleston (53-33 at half) yesterday, losing by 13; Bulldogs shot 32% from arc, but UCF has a 7-6 center. MSU played four kids 28+ yesterday. Boise State had two starters play 27:00 yesterday but not score; they had only one player in double figures. Broncos played four guys 27+ minutes. SEC teams are 9-14 vs spread this season; Mountain West teams are 4-7.
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Michigan scored 77.3 pts/game in winning first three games; they dismantled Marquette last night, shooting 60% inside arc- their rotation is seven kids playing 17+ minutes. SMU scored 79.7 pts/game in its 3-0 start; they beat Pitt by 9 last night, turning ball over only seven times. Mustangs played only eight kids, two more than 29:00. Big East/ACC teams split 12 games LY; favorites were 8-4 vs spread in those games. Big East teams are 8-7 vs spread this year; ACC teams are 13-5 vs spread this season.
Marquette played only three guys more than 21:00 in bad loss to Michigan last night (were down 50-26 at half). Golden Eagles shot 38.8% from arc in their 2-1 start. Pitt had two kids score 42 of their 67 points last night; Panthers are 2-1, but needed double OT to beat Eastern Michigan, a possible red flag- they allowed 82 pts/game in first three games. Big 14 teams were 6-4 vs AAC squads LY; favorites were 5-3 vs spread in those games. Big 14 teams are 10-10; this season; AAC teams are 7-8.
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Ole Miss won its first two games 86-83/90-88, both at home; in 75-80 possession games, so they’re going to run. Rebels are turning ball over 24.7% of time, playing #17 pace in country. Oral Roberts lost by 15 at Baylor in only meaningful game so far; Eagles start two juniors, two seniors. SEC teams won last four games with Summit teams (3-1 vs spread). SEC teams are 9-13 vs spread this season, 8-11 as favorites. Summit teams are 9-7 vs spread, 7-5 as underdogs.
NC State beat couple of stiffs by 2-25 points to start season; Wolfpack’s best big guy isn’t eligible until Dec 15, so they’re little shorthanded now- they start a freshman and two sophs. Montana lost by point at home to Wyoming last game, after losing by 14 at USC. Griz is long way from home- they also start two sops and a freshman. ACC teams won/covered both games vs Big Sky teams LY, winning by 33-22 points. ACC teams are 13-5 vs spread this season, 13-4 as favorites; Big Sky teams are 8-10 vs spread, 8-9 as underdogs.
Creighton had emotional home win over Wisconsin earlier this week; Bluejays scored 84 pts/game in winning first two games- they shot 43.9% from arc in those games. Washington State is worst team in Pac-12; they won first two games by total of 9 points, but one of those was vs a D-II team. Big East teams are 5-2 in last seven games with Pac-12 squads; underdogs were 4-3 vs spread in those games. Big East teams are 8-7 vs spread this season, 4-7 as favorites; Pac-12 teams are 13-7 vs spread, 1-0 as an underdog.
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