Monday's Best NCAAB Bets
By Covers.com
Valparaiso at Arizona (-13.5, 137)
It’s a limbo year for the 16th ranked Arizona Wildcats. They lost do-everything forward Derrick Williams to the NBA but the help replacing him won’t be felt until their ballyhooed recruiting class shows up next season.
Coach Sean Miller’s team returns three starters from last season but he hasn’t been pleased from what he’s seen from his upperclassmen.
“They need to get better,” Miller told the Arizona Republic. “You’re wearing Arizona. You’re a veteran. A lot of guys talk about having and wanting a bigger role. There it is.”
Even more troubling, the Wildcats lost an exhibition game to Division II Seattle-Pacific last week.
“We better get a lot better or Valparaiso is going to come in (Monday) and beat us,” Miller added.
The Crusaders should have a little bit extra motivation as they try to make new coach and Valparaiso alumni Bryce Drew’s first game a winning effort.
Pick: Valparaiso +13.5
William & Mary at St. John’s (-8, 137)
Forget everything you remember about the Johnnies from last season. The Red Storm’s surprising success a year ago was the product of a senior-laden squad playing above expectations.
The 2011-12 edition returns just one player from last season’s roster. That’s the bad news. The good news is coach Steve Lavin brought in maybe the Johnnies' best recruiting class ever headlined by Moe Harkless.
The 6-8 athletic wing player is considered the Storm’s best local recruit since Ron Artest.
“Moe started it all when he chose St. John’s. . . . That’s a guy I wanted to play with,” freshman guard D’Angelo Harrison of Houston told the New York Daily News. “He was the first domino.”
Harkless and Harrison are two of the nine freshmen joining St. John’s, but only six will be in uniform Monday against William & Mary. Three recruits are academically ineligible to play this semester leaving the Johnnies bench especially thin.
Adding to Big East team’s woes is the health of Lavin. He’s recovering from prostate cancer surgery last month which means his assistants will run the show for him early on.
High player turnover, a short bench and the head coach out of the mix? Sounds like the perfect recipe for a poor defensive effort.
Pick: Over 137
WM & MARY (10 - 22) at ST JOHNS (21 - 12)
Top Trends for this game.
WM & MARY is 25-13 ATS (+10.7 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
E KENTUCKY (15 - 16) at MISSISSIPPI ST (17 - 14)
Top Trends for this game.
MISSISSIPPI ST is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as a home favorite of 12.5 or more points over the last 3 seasons.
MISSISSIPPI ST is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games in November games over the last 3 seasons.
MISSISSIPPI ST is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
VALPARAISO (23 - 12) at ARIZONA (30 - 8)
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in November games over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
WILLIAM & MARY vs. ST. JOHN'S
William & Mary is 3-16 SU in its last 19 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of William & Mary's last 9 games on the road
St. John's is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
St. John's is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games
EASTERN KENTUCKY vs. MISSISSIPPI STATE
Eastern Kentucky is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Eastern Kentucky is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Mississippi State is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Mississippi State's last 5 games
VALPARAISO vs. ARIZONA
Valparaiso is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Valparaiso is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Arizona is 15-4 SU in its last 19 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games
WM & MARY at ST JOHNS
WM & MARY: 25-13 ATS as an underdog
ST JOHNS: 13-2 Under as home favorite
E KENTUCKY at MISSISSIPPI ST
E KENTUCKY: 6-0 ATS as underdog of 10 or more
MISSISSIPPI ST: 1-9 ATS vs. non-conference
VALPARAISO at ARIZONA
VALPARAISO: 9-2 Over in road games
ARIZONA: 9-1 ATS in November